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# data/raw — provenance of every raw download (retrieved 2026-10-27)

All files below were downloaded on 2026-10-27 by scripts/01_download_data.py (key-less endpoints only), except the FRED csv files, which were obtained verbatim through the Claude Code WebFetch tool the same day because FRED's Akamai edge did not answer direct HTTP requests from this network (details in fred/_RETRIEVAL_NOTE.md). Exact sizes, SHA-256 hashes, HTTP content types and URLs are in manifest.json (one key per file). Nothing in this directory is executed; files are only parsed by scripts/02_build_calibration_targets.py. The directory is git-ignored except this README; re-create it with python3 -I scripts/01_download_data.py.

# fred/ — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED (43 series)

  • What: <SERIES>.csv = https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=<SERIES> (observation_date,value). Series: PRS85006173, COE, GDI, W256RC1Q027SBEA, LABSHPUSA156NRUG, LABSHPCAA156NRUG, CP, CPATAX, DIVIDEND, B056RC1A027NBEA, GDP, GDPA, GDPC1, CPIAUCSL, TNWBSHNO, HNOREMQ027S, OEHRENWBSHNO, HOEREPHRE, WFRBST01134, WFRBSN09161, WFRBSN40188, WFRBSB50215, GPDI, PNFI, Y034RC1Q027SBEA, B985RC1Q027SBEA, A679RC1Q027SBEA, Y001RC1Q027SBEA, K1PTOTL1ES000, K1NTOTL1ES000, M1PTOTL1ES000, M1NTOTL1ES000, A024RC1A027NBEA, COFC, DFII10, FII10, REAINTRATREARAT10Y, DGS10, GS10, CSUSHPISA, CUSR0000SEHA, CUUR0000SEHA, APU000072610.
  • Size: 43 files, 621,310 bytes in total. Vintage: FRED "Last Updated" dates in _metadata.json (NIPA series 2026-09-30 = 2026Q2 third estimate; Z.1 2026-09-11 = 2026Q2 release; Fixed Assets 2025-10-30 (data to 2024); H.15 to 2026-10-23; CPI/APU to 2026-09; PWT 11.0 to 2023; DFA to 2026Q2).
  • Licence/terms: FRED Terms of Use (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/). Underlying US government series are public domain; CSUSHPISA is proprietary to S&P Dow Jones Indices (only derived ratios are published here); LABSH* = Penn World Table (CC BY 4.0); REAINTRATREARAT10Y = Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • _metadata.json: title/units/frequency/last-updated per series (provenance field says whether transcribed from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/<ID>.txt or from a FRED search listing). _RETRIEVAL_NOTE.md: why WebFetch.

# shiller/ — Robert J. Shiller online data (Yale)

  • ie_data.xls — 1,628,672 bytes — http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls . Monthly S&P composite price, dividends, earnings, CPI, GS10, real series, CAPE, 1871-01 to 2023-09 (the Yale file retrieved on 2026-10-27 ends in September 2023; this is the vintage used — see caveat in data/README.md).
  • Fig3-1.xls — 307,200 bytes — http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig3-1.xls . Real and nominal US home price index (1890=100), building cost, population, long rate; annual 1890-1952, monthly 1953-01 to 2023-01.
  • Terms: data posted by the author for public use ("Irrational Exuberance" companion data); cite Shiller.

# fed_dfa/ — Federal Reserve Board, Distributional Financial Accounts

  • dfa.zip — 895,897 bytes — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/download/zips/dfa.zip ; extracted to unzipped/ (27 csv/txt files; entries dated 2026-09-15 = 2026Q2 release). Used: dfa-networth-shares.csv (shares of net worth and of each asset class by wealth group TopPt1 / RemainingTop1 / Next9 / Next40 / Bottom50, 1989Q3-2026Q2). Public domain (US government work).

# bea_io/ — BEA Input-Output accounts (static files)

  • AllTablesIO.zip — 16,335,444 bytes — https://apps.bea.gov/industry/iTables Static Files/AllTablesIO.zip (Make/Use tables, 1997-2023 Summary and Sector, 2017 Detail; files dated 2024-09). Extracted to unzipped/: IOUse_After_Redefinitions_PRO_1997-2023_Summary.xlsx (used), ..._Sector.xlsx, IOMake_..._Summary.xlsx.
  • AllTablesSUP.zip — 20,439,248 bytes — supply-use framework tables 1997-2023 (not used yet, kept for the IO block of the model). Public domain. Note: the individual xlsx links on the BEA site (e.g. io-annual/IOUse_After_Redefinitions_PRO_1997-2023_Summary.xlsx) return "page not found"; the zip works.

# pwt/ — Penn World Table 10.01

  • pwt1001.xlsx — 6,551,843 bytes — https://dataverse.nl/api/access/datafile/354095 (DataverseNL, doi:10.34894/QT5BCC; content-disposition filename pwt1001.xlsx; sheets Info/Legend/Data, 1950-2019). CC BY 4.0. Cite Feenstra, Inklaar & Timmer (2015, AER). Used for labsh USA/CAN cross-check (FRED serves PWT 11.0).

# epoch/ — Epoch AI, Machine Learning Hardware dataset

# eia/ — US Energy Information Administration

  • epa_01_01.xlsx — 17,139 bytes — https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/xls/epa_01_01.xlsx — Electric Power Annual Table 1.1, summary statistics 2025 and 2024 (net generation by source, utility-scale and small-scale solar, retail sales by sector; thousand MWh).
  • table_es1a.xlsx — 19,474 bytes — Electric Power Monthly Table ES1.A (August 2026 vs August 2025).
  • epa_02_01.xlsx — 13,272 bytes — Electric Power Annual Table 2.1 (number of customers; not used).
  • Public domain.

# clevelandfed/ — Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland inflation expectations model

# statcan/ — Statistics Canada (Web Data Service, key-less)

# lbnl/ — LBNL 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

# treasury/ — US Department of the Treasury, daily par real yield curve (TIPS)

# bls/ — US Bureau of Labor Statistics public API v1 (key-less, max 10 years per query)

  • <SERIES>_<start>-<end>.json for PRS85006173, APU000072610, CUSR0000SEHA, four 10-year windows each (1990-2026) — 91,695 bytes — POST https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/ . Used only as an independent cross-check of the FRED copies. Public domain. Note: no October-2025 observation exists for the CPI/APU series.

# NOT retrieved

  • Nothing at source level is missing. Two access paths failed and were replaced by equivalent ones, documented above: (i) direct HTTP to FRED (replaced by verbatim WebFetch copies of the same URLs), (ii) the LBNL host for the data-center report (replaced by the eScholarship copy of the same report).
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