1# data/raw — provenance of every raw download (retrieved 2026-10-27)23All files below were downloaded on **2026-10-27** by `scripts/01_download_data.py` (key-less endpoints only), except the4FRED csv files, which were obtained verbatim through the Claude Code WebFetch tool the same day because FRED's Akamai5edge did not answer direct HTTP requests from this network (details in `fred/_RETRIEVAL_NOTE.md`). Exact sizes,6SHA-256 hashes, HTTP content types and URLs are in `manifest.json` (one key per file). Nothing in this directory is7executed; files are only parsed by `scripts/02_build_calibration_targets.py`. The directory is git-ignored except8this README; re-create it with `python3 -I scripts/01_download_data.py`.910## fred/ — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED (43 series)11* What: `<SERIES>.csv` = `https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=<SERIES>` (observation_date,value).12 Series: PRS85006173, COE, GDI, W256RC1Q027SBEA, LABSHPUSA156NRUG, LABSHPCAA156NRUG, CP, CPATAX, DIVIDEND,13 B056RC1A027NBEA, GDP, GDPA, GDPC1, CPIAUCSL, TNWBSHNO, HNOREMQ027S, OEHRENWBSHNO, HOEREPHRE, WFRBST01134,14 WFRBSN09161, WFRBSN40188, WFRBSB50215, GPDI, PNFI, Y034RC1Q027SBEA, B985RC1Q027SBEA, A679RC1Q027SBEA,15 Y001RC1Q027SBEA, K1PTOTL1ES000, K1NTOTL1ES000, M1PTOTL1ES000, M1NTOTL1ES000, A024RC1A027NBEA, COFC, DFII10, FII10,16 REAINTRATREARAT10Y, DGS10, GS10, CSUSHPISA, CUSR0000SEHA, CUUR0000SEHA, APU000072610.17* Size: 43 files, 621,310 bytes in total. Vintage: FRED "Last Updated" dates in `_metadata.json`18 (NIPA series 2026-09-30 = 2026Q2 third estimate; Z.1 2026-09-11 = 2026Q2 release; Fixed Assets 2025-10-3019 (data to 2024); H.15 to 2026-10-23; CPI/APU to 2026-09; PWT 11.0 to 2023; DFA to 2026Q2).20* Licence/terms: FRED Terms of Use (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/). Underlying US government series are21 public domain; CSUSHPISA is proprietary to S&P Dow Jones Indices (only derived ratios are published here);22 LABSH* = Penn World Table (CC BY 4.0); REAINTRATREARAT10Y = Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.23* `_metadata.json`: title/units/frequency/last-updated per series (provenance field says whether transcribed from24 `https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/<ID>.txt` or from a FRED search listing). `_RETRIEVAL_NOTE.md`: why WebFetch.2526## shiller/ — Robert J. Shiller online data (Yale)27* `ie_data.xls` — 1,628,672 bytes — http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls . Monthly S&P composite28 price, dividends, earnings, CPI, GS10, real series, CAPE, 1871-01 to **2023-09** (the Yale file retrieved on29 2026-10-27 ends in September 2023; this is the vintage used — see caveat in data/README.md).30* `Fig3-1.xls` — 307,200 bytes — http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig3-1.xls . Real and nominal US31 home price index (1890=100), building cost, population, long rate; annual 1890-1952, monthly 1953-01 to 2023-01.32* Terms: data posted by the author for public use ("Irrational Exuberance" companion data); cite Shiller.3334## fed_dfa/ — Federal Reserve Board, Distributional Financial Accounts35* `dfa.zip` — 895,897 bytes — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/download/zips/dfa.zip ;36 extracted to `unzipped/` (27 csv/txt files; entries dated 2026-09-15 = 2026Q2 release). Used: `dfa-networth-shares.csv`37 (shares of net worth and of each asset class by wealth group TopPt1 / RemainingTop1 / Next9 / Next40 / Bottom50,38 1989Q3-2026Q2). Public domain (US government work).3940## bea_io/ — BEA Input-Output accounts (static files)41* `AllTablesIO.zip` — 16,335,444 bytes — https://apps.bea.gov/industry/iTables%20Static%20Files/AllTablesIO.zip42 (Make/Use tables, 1997-2023 Summary and Sector, 2017 Detail; files dated 2024-09). Extracted to `unzipped/`:43 `IOUse_After_Redefinitions_PRO_1997-2023_Summary.xlsx` (used), `..._Sector.xlsx`, `IOMake_..._Summary.xlsx`.44* `AllTablesSUP.zip` — 20,439,248 bytes — supply-use framework tables 1997-2023 (not used yet, kept for the45 IO block of the model). Public domain. Note: the individual xlsx links on the BEA site (e.g.46 `io-annual/IOUse_After_Redefinitions_PRO_1997-2023_Summary.xlsx`) return "page not found"; the zip works.4748## pwt/ — Penn World Table 10.0149* `pwt1001.xlsx` — 6,551,843 bytes — https://dataverse.nl/api/access/datafile/354095 (DataverseNL,50 doi:10.34894/QT5BCC; content-disposition filename pwt1001.xlsx; sheets Info/Legend/Data, 1950-2019). CC BY 4.0.51 Cite Feenstra, Inklaar & Timmer (2015, AER). Used for `labsh` USA/CAN cross-check (FRED serves PWT 11.0).5253## epoch/ — Epoch AI, Machine Learning Hardware dataset54* `ml_hardware.csv` — 104,118 bytes — https://epoch.ai/data/ml_hardware.csv (linked from55 https://epoch.ai/data/machine-learning-hardware). 183 accelerators with release date, release price, FLOP/s by56 precision, `Max performance`, `Price-performance` (FLOP/s per USD). Licence: CC BY 4.0 (Epoch AI data policy).57 Vintage: includes entries released up to 2026-09 (NVIDIA Vera Rubin).5859## eia/ — US Energy Information Administration60* `epa_01_01.xlsx` — 17,139 bytes — https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/xls/epa_01_01.xlsx — Electric61 Power Annual Table 1.1, summary statistics **2025 and 2024** (net generation by source, utility-scale and62 small-scale solar, retail sales by sector; thousand MWh).63* `table_es1a.xlsx` — 19,474 bytes — Electric Power Monthly Table ES1.A (August 2026 vs August 2025).64* `epa_02_01.xlsx` — 13,272 bytes — Electric Power Annual Table 2.1 (number of customers; not used).65* Public domain.6667## clevelandfed/ — Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland inflation expectations model68* `inflation-expectations.xlsx` — 187,240 bytes —69 https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/files/webcharts/inflationexpectations/inflation-expectations.xlsx — monthly70 1982-01 to 2026-10: expected inflation 1-30 y, real rates 1 m / 1 y / 10 y, risk premia. Terms: Cleveland Fed71 website terms; cite Haubrich, Pennacchi & Ritchken (2012).7273## statcan/ — Statistics Canada (Web Data Service, key-less)74* `36100103-eng.zip` — 58,217 bytes — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/tbl/csv/36100103-eng.zip75 (link returned by https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getFullTableDownloadCSV/36100103/en). Table76 36-10-0103-01, GDP income-based, quarterly, 1961Q1-2026Q2, SAAR and unadjusted, $ millions.77* `36100580-eng.zip` — 11,868,021 bytes — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/tbl/csv/36100580-eng.zip78 (from getFullTableDownloadCSV/36100580/en). Table 36-10-0580-01, National balance sheet accounts, quarterly,79 1990Q1-2026Q2, market and book value, all sectors (187 MB csv once unzipped).80* Statistics Canada Open Licence.8182## lbnl/ — LBNL 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report83* `lbnl-2024-united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report.pdf` — 4,397,827 bytes , 80 pages — retrieved from84 the eScholarship mirror https://escholarship.org/content/qt32d6m0d1/qt32d6m0d1.pdf (University of California,85 DOI 10.71468/P1WC7Q; cover sheet: "2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report", Shehabi, Newkirk, Smith et al.,86 publication date 2024-12-20, LBNL-2001637). The LBNL host87 https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/lbnl-2024-united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report.pdf88 returned an HTTP 202 bot-challenge page with an empty body to every non-browser request (2 attempts, laptop and89 OVH server). Quoted pages are PDF page numbers (cover sheet = page 1) with the printed page number in brackets.90 Terms: US DOE-funded report, open access.9192## treasury/ — US Department of the Treasury, daily par real yield curve (TIPS)93* `daily_treasury_real_yield_curve_<year>.csv`, 2003-2026 — 209,666 bytes in total —94 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/<year>/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=<year>&page&_format=csv95 (5/7/10/20/30-year real yields; the "all years" endpoint returns 403, so one file per year). Public domain.9697## bls/ — US Bureau of Labor Statistics public API v1 (key-less, max 10 years per query)98* `<SERIES>_<start>-<end>.json` for PRS85006173, APU000072610, CUSR0000SEHA, four 10-year windows each99 (1990-2026) — 91,695 bytes — POST https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/ . Used only as an independent100 cross-check of the FRED copies. Public domain. Note: no October-2025 observation exists for the CPI/APU series.101102## NOT retrieved103* Nothing at source level is missing. Two access paths failed and were replaced by equivalent ones, documented104 above: (i) direct HTTP to FRED (replaced by verbatim WebFetch copies of the same URLs), (ii) the LBNL host for the105 data-center report (replaced by the eScholarship copy of the same report).106