1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-03",3 "n_origins": 60,4 "first_origin": "2021-09-01",5 "last_origin": "2026-08-01",6 "lambda": 50.0,7 "normalisation_window": "expanding",8 "n_features": 8,9 "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,10 "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,11 "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,12 "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,13 "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,14 "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,15 "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,16 "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,17 "feasibility": "complete",18 "feasibility_reason": null,19 "data_issues": [20 {21 "issue": "Missing values: {'neworder_chg': 2} (neworder_chg empty for 1992-01/02). README says the first month of each change series is empty, but ip_growth/oil_chg/permit_chg for 1992-01 are populated in the file.",22 "handling": "No imputation needed: ridge training starts at s=1992-03 (lags reach 1992-01 for ip_growth only), expanding mean starts 1992-04 as specified; populated 1992-01 values used as given."23 },24 {25 "issue": "Large COVID-19 outliers in 2020 (ip_growth min -14.14, max 6.35).",26 "handling": "Kept as given; no winsorisation (not in specification)."27 }28 ],29 "n_input_rows": {30 "ip_predictors.csv": 41731 },32 "n_analysed": 413,33 "random_seed": 20261030,34 "supplementary": {35 "dm_ridge_vs_naive": [36 -3.3649594921847754,37 0.001350668724157172638 ],39 "dm_ridge_vs_mean": [40 0.5392198591267081,41 0.59176425834219342 ],43 "boot95_rel_impr_vs_naive": [44 0.23500539342572274,45 0.4629954977825860346 ],47 "boot95_rel_impr_vs_mean": [48 -0.16820638961201373,49 0.0722784578554891650 ]51 }52}