1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-02",3 "model_name": "ar1_1985_xcovid",4 "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS on each origin's vintage from 1985Q1 to the last published quarter, excluding regression pairs involving the 2020Q2/2020Q3 COVID quarters; h=2 forecast by iterating the AR(1).",5 "n_origins": 8,6 "first_origin": "2024-01-31",7 "last_origin": "2025-12-31",8 "rmse_naive_h1": 2.010286,9 "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,10 "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226,11 "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,12 "rmse_model_h1": 1.485481,13 "mae_model_h1": 1.233655,14 "rmse_model_h2": 1.400073,15 "mae_model_h2": 1.029787,16 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.26106,17 "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.381928,18 "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,19 "dm_hln_stat_h1": 1.4854,20 "dm_hln_pvalue_h1": 0.181,21 "dm_hln_stat_h2": 1.7448,22 "dm_hln_pvalue_h2": 0.1245,23 "feasibility": "complete",24 "feasibility_reason": null,25 "data_issues": [26 {27 "issue": "irregular origin spacing: 2025-07-31 -> 2025-12-31 (153 days), due to delayed BEA advance estimate (2025 shutdown)",28 "handling": "kept as given; h is defined relative to last quarter in the vintage, so targets stay consecutive quarters"29 }30 ],31 "n_input_rows": {32 "first_release.csv": 13,33 "current_vintage.csv": 318,34 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,35 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,36 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,37 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,38 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,39 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,40 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,41 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 31442 },43 "n_analysed": 314,44 "random_seed": null45}