1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-02",3 "model_name": "ar1_1985_excovid",4 "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS at each origin on that origin's vintage only, dependent sample 1985Q2 to the last vintage quarter excluding dependent quarters 2020Q2-2020Q4 (COVID outliers); h=2 forecast by iterating the AR(1).",5 "n_origins": 8,6 "first_origin": "2024-01-31",7 "last_origin": "2025-12-31",8 "rmse_naive_h1": 2.0102860492974624,9 "mae_naive_h1": 1.6874999999999996,10 "rmse_model_h1": 1.4835747469242266,11 "mae_model_h1": 1.233214264175,12 "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226258014859,13 "mae_naive_h2": 1.8124999999999998,14 "rmse_model_h2": 1.3976488356584449,15 "mae_model_h2": 1.0295196499375001,16 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.2620081368804734,17 "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.3829981306665231,18 "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625000000000001,19 "feasibility": "complete",20 "feasibility_reason": null,21 "data_issues": [22 {23 "issue": "COVID-19 outliers 2020Q2 (about -28%) and 2020Q3 (about +35%) in all vintages",24 "handling": "dependent quarters 2020Q2-2020Q4 excluded from AR(1) estimation (decided before evaluation)"25 },26 {27 "issue": "8th origin is 2025-12-31 (2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by the 2025 federal shutdown); 2025Q4 first release dated 2026-02-28",28 "handling": "used as provided; origin dates and first-release dates checked to respect chronology"29 }30 ],31 "n_input_rows": {32 "first_release.csv": 13,33 "current_vintage.csv": 318,34 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,35 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,36 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,37 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,38 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,39 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,40 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,41 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 31442 },43 "n_analysed": 159,44 "random_seed": null,45 "supp_n_origins_model_lower_sqerr_h1": 5,46 "supp_dm_stat_h1": 1.5941055544494525,47 "supp_dm_pvalue_t7_h1": 0.15494148844232725,48 "supp_n_origins_model_lower_sqerr_h2": 8,49 "supp_dm_stat_h2": 1.8602935386351485,50 "supp_dm_pvalue_t7_h2": 0.10516614254520543,51 "ar1_coefficients_last_origin": {52 "intercept": 1.7716206256012257,53 "phi": 0.3346567326386399354 }55}