1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-02",3 "model_name": "ar1_1985_excovid",4 "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS on each origin's vintage, sample 1985Q1 to the last published quarter, excluding regression pairs touching 2020Q1-2021Q1; h=2 forecast by iteration.",5 "n_origins": 8,6 "first_origin": "2024-01-31",7 "last_origin": "2025-12-31",8 "rmse_naive_h1": 2.010286,9 "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,10 "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226,11 "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,12 "rmse_model_h1": 1.481186,13 "mae_model_h1": 1.222635,14 "rmse_model_h2": 1.399067,15 "mae_model_h2": 1.020969,16 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.263196,17 "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.382372,18 "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,19 "feasibility": "complete",20 "feasibility_reason": null,21 "data_issues": [22 {23 "issue": "2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by the Oct-Nov 2025 federal shutdown; 8th origin is 2025-12-31 and the 2025Q4 first release is dated 2026-02-28",24 "handling": "used origins as supplied; spacing between last two origins is 5 months, targets still defined relative to last quarter in the vintage"25 },26 {27 "issue": "values of earlier quarters differ across vintages (revisions, incl. annual updates)",28 "handling": "each origin uses only its own vintage file; current vintage used only for the revision statistic"29 }30 ],31 "n_input_rows": {32 "first_release.csv": 13,33 "current_vintage.csv": 318,34 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,35 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,36 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,37 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,38 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,39 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,40 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,41 "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 31442 },43 "n_analysed": 314,44 "random_seed": null45}