1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "Known only in 2025 (final-vintage field) and constructed from the firm's realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage; not available at end of origin year t and mechanically contains the outcome (look-ahead leakage)."14 }15 ],16 "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,17 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,18 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,19 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,20 "feasibility": "complete",21 "feasibility_reason": null,22 "data_issues": [23 {24 "issue": "Column rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field built from realised defaults through 2022 (look-ahead; observed default rate by rating: {'A': 0.0, 'B': 0.0, 'C': 0.0, 'D': 0.22708333333333333}).",25 "handling": "Excluded from the analytic dataset and listed in variables_excluded."26 },27 {28 "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys; all duplicates identical on every column, no conflicting values).",29 "handling": "Kept the first occurrence of each, giving one row per firm-year (300 firms x 7 years)."30 },31 {32 "issue": "300 firm-years (after de-duplication) have missing default_next, all in origin year(s) [2022] (outcome year 2023 beyond the data cut).",33 "handling": "Excluded from estimation (no imputation); recorded in the exclusion ledger."34 }35 ],36 "n_input_rows": {37 "firm_panel.csv": 214038 },39 "random_seed": null,40 "ci95_leverage_cluster": [41 0.18390149920815163,42 0.3436657213795017443 ],44 "pvalue_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,45 "beta_cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,46 "se_cash_ratio_cluster": 0.0588860837664576,47 "beta_log_sales": -0.007342181807581363,48 "se_log_sales_cluster": 0.007626106514531905,49 "intercept": 0.08997926409935522,50 "default_rate_by_rating_2025_diagnostic": {51 "A": 0.0,52 "B": 0.0,53 "C": 0.0,54 "D": 0.2270833333333333355 },56 "n_clusters": 300,57 "cov_type": "cluster-robust by firm_id (statsmodels default small-sample correction)"58}