1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "Known only in 2025; built from realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage (look-ahead leakage); violates information-availability rule."14 },15 {16 "variable": "default_next",17 "reason": "Outcome (dependent variable), known only at end of t+1; not a predictor."18 },19 {20 "variable": "firm_id",21 "reason": "Identifier; used only for clustering standard errors, not as a regressor."22 },23 {24 "variable": "year",25 "reason": "Origin-year identifier; not part of the specified model."26 }27 ],28 "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,29 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,30 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,31 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,32 "feasibility": "complete",33 "feasibility_reason": null,34 "data_issues": [35 {36 "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field built from realised defaults through 2022 and average sample leverage: it violates the information-availability rule.",37 "handling": "Column dropped from the analytic dataset; listed in variables_excluded; never used."38 },39 {40 "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (same firm_id-year, all fields identical); input has 2140 rows vs 2100 intended (300 firms x 7 years).",41 "handling": "Kept first occurrence, dropped the copies (ledger step 2)."42 },43 {44 "issue": "default_next missing (right-censored at the end-2022 data cut) for origin years [2022].",45 "handling": "Firm-years excluded from estimation (ledger step 3); no imputation."46 },47 {48 "issue": "leverage has a mass point at its minimum value 0.02 (54 analysed firm-years), suggesting a floor/clipping in the source.",49 "handling": "Kept as recorded; noted as a limitation (no correction applied)."50 }51 ],52 "n_input_rows": {53 "firm_panel.csv": 214054 },55 "random_seed": null,56 "supp_ci95_leverage_cluster": [57 0.18390149920815163,58 0.3436657213795017459 ],60 "supp_pvalue_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,61 "supp_se_leverage_hc1": 0.03744708748506851,62 "supp_coefficients": {63 "const": 0.08997926409935522,64 "leverage": 0.2637836102938267,65 "cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,66 "log_sales": -0.00734218180758136367 },68 "supp_se_cluster": {69 "const": 0.04351602070943679,70 "leverage": 0.0407569280434615,71 "cash_ratio": 0.0588860837664576,72 "log_sales": 0.00762610651453190573 },74 "supp_n_clusters": 300,75 "supp_years_analysed": [76 2016,77 202178 ],79 "supp_n_exact_duplicates": 40,80 "supp_n_key_duplicates": 4081}