1{2 "task_id": "F6-conf-03",3 "sample_start": "1960-01-01",4 "sample_end": "2019-10-01",5 "n_sub1": 96,6 "n_sub2": 144,7 "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,8 "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,9 "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,10 "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,11 "effect_se": 0.03583463330296569,12 "hac_lags": 4,13 "effect_ci_low": -0.32600231842173816,14 "effect_ci_high": -0.18553313707571345,15 "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,16 "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,17 "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,18 "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,19 "stability_conclusion": "unstable",20 "conclusion": "negative_effect",21 "feasibility": "complete",22 "feasibility_reason": null,23 "data_issues": [24 {25 "issue": "UNRATE missing value(s) at ['2025-10-01']",26 "handling": "outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window; that quarter is incomplete and is excluded by the date truncation; no effect on estimates"27 },28 {29 "issue": "Both files extend beyond 2019Q4 (to 2026)",30 "handling": "quarters after 2019Q4 removed before any estimation (information rule)"31 },32 {33 "issue": "GDPC1 is the 2026 vintage (revised data, chained 2017 dollars), not real-time data",34 "handling": "used as is; the question is historical; noted as a limitation"35 }36 ],37 "n_input_rows": {38 "GDPC1.csv": 319,39 "UNRATE.csv": 94540 },41 "n_analysed": 240,42 "random_seed": null,43 "r_squared": 0.4082508284562034,44 "ols_classical_se_beta": 0.01996009291490984,45 "effect_se_lag_sensitivity": {46 "0": 0.028836223207269963,47 "2": 0.03422732023615383,48 "4": 0.03583463330296569,49 "6": 0.03687902855135959,50 "8": 0.03713550417540189,51 "12": 0.036408851102280952 },53 "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,54 "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,55 "beta_sub1_hac_se": 0.03928680828959863,56 "beta_sub2_hac_se": 0.06831428793738023,57 "chow_df": [58 2,59 23660 ],61 "mean_growth": 0.753502755065237,62 "mean_du": -0.008333333333333335,63 "resid_rmse_sub1": 0.2772501475549326,64 "resid_rmse_sub2": 0.21818853066467392,65 "n_merged_quarters": 314,66 "implied_breakeven_growth_full": 0.720921109966054967}