1origin_date,target_date,horizon,forecast,actual,model,last_target_date_used,last_predictor_date_used22022-05-01,2022-06-01,1,5.650093,5.9571,ardl_emp_direct,2022-03-01,2022-04-0132022-06-01,2022-07-01,1,6.053551,5.3974,ardl_emp_direct,2022-04-01,2022-05-0142022-07-01,2022-08-01,1,4.977263,4.8317,ardl_emp_direct,2022-05-01,2022-06-0152022-08-01,2022-09-01,1,5.211647,4.5593,ardl_emp_direct,2022-06-01,2022-07-0162022-09-01,2022-10-01,1,4.758584,3.5699,ardl_emp_direct,2022-07-01,2022-08-0172022-10-01,2022-11-01,1,3.936437,2.9749,ardl_emp_direct,2022-08-01,2022-09-0182022-11-01,2022-12-01,1,4.442729,2.2516,ardl_emp_direct,2022-09-01,2022-10-0192022-12-01,2023-01-01,1,3.007077,3.4862,ardl_emp_direct,2022-10-01,2022-11-01102023-01-01,2023-02-01,1,2.917912,2.7447,ardl_emp_direct,2022-11-01,2022-12-01112023-02-01,2023-03-01,1,3.485187,2.4408,ardl_emp_direct,2022-12-01,2023-01-01122023-03-01,2023-04-01,1,2.297546,2.4286,ardl_emp_direct,2023-01-01,2023-02-01132023-04-01,2023-05-01,1,2.909405,2.2154,ardl_emp_direct,2023-02-01,2023-03-01142023-05-01,2023-06-01,1,2.328227,1.6614,ardl_emp_direct,2023-03-01,2023-04-01152023-06-01,2023-07-01,1,2.290949,1.6246,ardl_emp_direct,2023-04-01,2023-05-01162023-07-01,2023-08-01,1,2.532257,1.369,ardl_emp_direct,2023-05-01,2023-06-01172023-08-01,2023-09-01,1,1.765781,1.1132,ardl_emp_direct,2023-06-01,2023-07-01182023-09-01,2023-10-01,1,1.992092,1.3324,ardl_emp_direct,2023-07-01,2023-08-01192023-10-01,2023-11-01,1,1.62175,1.7142,ardl_emp_direct,2023-08-01,2023-09-01202023-11-01,2023-12-01,1,1.078455,1.8857,ardl_emp_direct,2023-09-01,2023-10-01212023-12-01,2024-01-01,1,1.374965,1.1884,ardl_emp_direct,2023-10-01,2023-11-01222024-01-01,2024-02-01,1,1.55588,1.4547,ardl_emp_direct,2023-11-01,2023-12-01232024-02-01,2024-03-01,1,1.687196,1.1964,ardl_emp_direct,2023-12-01,2024-01-01242024-03-01,2024-04-01,1,1.332365,1.5521,ardl_emp_direct,2024-01-01,2024-02-01252024-04-01,2024-05-01,1,1.427036,1.6785,ardl_emp_direct,2024-02-01,2024-03-01262024-05-01,2024-06-01,1,1.431507,2.0314,ardl_emp_direct,2024-03-01,2024-04-01272024-06-01,2024-07-01,1,1.715489,2.12,ardl_emp_direct,2024-04-01,2024-05-01282024-07-01,2024-08-01,1,1.534726,2.1932,ardl_emp_direct,2024-05-01,2024-06-01292024-08-01,2024-09-01,1,2.01391,2.5041,ardl_emp_direct,2024-06-01,2024-07-01302024-09-01,2024-10-01,1,2.035892,2.8193,ardl_emp_direct,2024-07-01,2024-08-01312024-10-01,2024-11-01,1,2.156898,2.3398,ardl_emp_direct,2024-08-01,2024-09-01322024-11-01,2024-12-01,1,2.401011,2.6735,ardl_emp_direct,2024-09-01,2024-10-01332024-12-01,2025-01-01,1,2.780524,2.9557,ardl_emp_direct,2024-10-01,2024-11-01342025-01-01,2025-02-01,1,2.590857,2.1683,ardl_emp_direct,2024-11-01,2024-12-01352025-02-01,2025-03-01,1,2.706801,2.3227,ardl_emp_direct,2024-12-01,2025-01-01362025-03-01,2025-04-01,1,2.714985,1.8738,ardl_emp_direct,2025-01-01,2025-02-01372025-04-01,2025-05-01,1,2.039615,1.5619,ardl_emp_direct,2025-02-01,2025-03-01382025-05-01,2025-06-01,1,2.15486,1.2753,ardl_emp_direct,2025-03-01,2025-04-01392025-06-01,2025-07-01,1,1.858244,1.7373,ardl_emp_direct,2025-04-01,2025-05-01402025-07-01,2025-08-01,1,1.872085,1.5573,ardl_emp_direct,2025-05-01,2025-06-01412025-08-01,2025-09-01,1,1.307287,1.5074,ardl_emp_direct,2025-06-01,2025-07-01422025-09-01,2025-10-01,1,1.513925,0.806,ardl_emp_direct,2025-07-01,2025-08-01432025-10-01,2025-11-01,1,1.714111,1.1039,ardl_emp_direct,2025-08-01,2025-09-01442025-11-01,2025-12-01,1,1.818786,1.0085,ardl_emp_direct,2025-09-01,2025-10-01452025-12-01,2026-01-01,1,1.077328,0.4466,ardl_emp_direct,2025-10-01,2025-11-01462026-01-01,2026-02-01,1,1.019977,0.7697,ardl_emp_direct,2025-11-01,2025-12-01472026-02-01,2026-03-01,1,0.955808,0.4175,ardl_emp_direct,2025-12-01,2026-01-01482026-03-01,2026-04-01,1,0.463175,1.1488,ardl_emp_direct,2026-01-01,2026-02-01492026-04-01,2026-05-01,1,1.089632,1.6466,ardl_emp_direct,2026-02-01,2026-03-01502022-05-01,2022-08-01,3,5.627932,4.8317,ardl_emp_direct,2022-03-01,2022-04-01512022-06-01,2022-09-01,3,5.488577,4.5593,ardl_emp_direct,2022-04-01,2022-05-01522022-07-01,2022-10-01,3,3.556335,3.5699,ardl_emp_direct,2022-05-01,2022-06-01532022-08-01,2022-11-01,3,4.388356,2.9749,ardl_emp_direct,2022-06-01,2022-07-01542022-09-01,2022-12-01,3,4.197577,2.2516,ardl_emp_direct,2022-07-01,2022-08-01552022-10-01,2023-01-01,3,3.364991,3.4862,ardl_emp_direct,2022-08-01,2022-09-01562022-11-01,2023-02-01,3,4.128138,2.7447,ardl_emp_direct,2022-09-01,2022-10-01572022-12-01,2023-03-01,3,2.697268,2.4408,ardl_emp_direct,2022-10-01,2022-11-01582023-01-01,2023-04-01,3,2.804145,2.4286,ardl_emp_direct,2022-11-01,2022-12-01592023-02-01,2023-05-01,3,3.825331,2.2154,ardl_emp_direct,2022-12-01,2023-01-01602023-03-01,2023-06-01,3,1.730755,1.6614,ardl_emp_direct,2023-01-01,2023-02-01612023-04-01,2023-07-01,3,2.867432,1.6246,ardl_emp_direct,2023-02-01,2023-03-01622023-05-01,2023-08-01,3,2.24082,1.369,ardl_emp_direct,2023-03-01,2023-04-01632023-06-01,2023-09-01,3,2.19474,1.1132,ardl_emp_direct,2023-04-01,2023-05-01642023-07-01,2023-10-01,3,2.592863,1.3324,ardl_emp_direct,2023-05-01,2023-06-01652023-08-01,2023-11-01,3,1.816816,1.7142,ardl_emp_direct,2023-06-01,2023-07-01662023-09-01,2023-12-01,3,2.112368,1.8857,ardl_emp_direct,2023-07-01,2023-08-01672023-10-01,2024-01-01,3,1.742322,1.1884,ardl_emp_direct,2023-08-01,2023-09-01682023-11-01,2024-02-01,3,1.133925,1.4547,ardl_emp_direct,2023-09-01,2023-10-01692023-12-01,2024-03-01,3,1.4408,1.1964,ardl_emp_direct,2023-10-01,2023-11-01702024-01-01,2024-04-01,3,1.519464,1.5521,ardl_emp_direct,2023-11-01,2023-12-01712024-02-01,2024-05-01,3,1.607323,1.6785,ardl_emp_direct,2023-12-01,2024-01-01722024-03-01,2024-06-01,3,1.435987,2.0314,ardl_emp_direct,2024-01-01,2024-02-01732024-04-01,2024-07-01,3,1.466824,2.12,ardl_emp_direct,2024-02-01,2024-03-01742024-05-01,2024-08-01,3,1.585412,2.1932,ardl_emp_direct,2024-03-01,2024-04-01752024-06-01,2024-09-01,3,1.804712,2.5041,ardl_emp_direct,2024-04-01,2024-05-01762024-07-01,2024-10-01,3,1.51866,2.8193,ardl_emp_direct,2024-05-01,2024-06-01772024-08-01,2024-11-01,3,2.016108,2.3398,ardl_emp_direct,2024-06-01,2024-07-01782024-09-01,2024-12-01,3,2.0167,2.6735,ardl_emp_direct,2024-07-01,2024-08-01792024-10-01,2025-01-01,3,2.149966,2.9557,ardl_emp_direct,2024-08-01,2024-09-01802024-11-01,2025-02-01,3,2.34812,2.1683,ardl_emp_direct,2024-09-01,2024-10-01812024-12-01,2025-03-01,3,2.718887,2.3227,ardl_emp_direct,2024-10-01,2024-11-01822025-01-01,2025-04-01,3,2.65583,1.8738,ardl_emp_direct,2024-11-01,2024-12-01832025-02-01,2025-05-01,3,2.659507,1.5619,ardl_emp_direct,2024-12-01,2025-01-01842025-03-01,2025-06-01,3,2.558324,1.2753,ardl_emp_direct,2025-01-01,2025-02-01852025-04-01,2025-07-01,3,2.005163,1.7373,ardl_emp_direct,2025-02-01,2025-03-01862025-05-01,2025-08-01,3,2.103107,1.5573,ardl_emp_direct,2025-03-01,2025-04-01872025-06-01,2025-09-01,3,1.90954,1.5074,ardl_emp_direct,2025-04-01,2025-05-01882025-07-01,2025-10-01,3,2.043737,0.806,ardl_emp_direct,2025-05-01,2025-06-01892025-08-01,2025-11-01,3,1.427016,1.1039,ardl_emp_direct,2025-06-01,2025-07-01902025-09-01,2025-12-01,3,1.52681,1.0085,ardl_emp_direct,2025-07-01,2025-08-01912025-10-01,2026-01-01,3,1.862677,0.4466,ardl_emp_direct,2025-08-01,2025-09-01922025-11-01,2026-02-01,3,2.007814,0.7697,ardl_emp_direct,2025-09-01,2025-10-01932025-12-01,2026-03-01,3,1.311949,0.4175,ardl_emp_direct,2025-10-01,2025-11-01942026-01-01,2026-04-01,3,1.137141,1.1488,ardl_emp_direct,2025-11-01,2025-12-01952026-02-01,2026-05-01,3,1.106631,1.6466,ardl_emp_direct,2025-12-01,2026-01-01962026-03-01,2026-06-01,3,0.706106,2.0909,ardl_emp_direct,2026-01-01,2026-02-01972026-04-01,2026-07-01,3,1.385635,1.4203,ardl_emp_direct,2026-02-01,2026-03-01982022-05-01,2022-06-01,1,4.9335,5.9571,naive,2022-03-01,992022-06-01,2022-07-01,1,6.0468,5.3974,naive,2022-04-01,1002022-07-01,2022-08-01,1,6.5129,4.8317,naive,2022-05-01,1012022-08-01,2022-09-01,1,5.9571,4.5593,naive,2022-06-01,1022022-09-01,2022-10-01,1,5.3974,3.5699,naive,2022-07-01,1032022-10-01,2022-11-01,1,4.8317,2.9749,naive,2022-08-01,1042022-11-01,2022-12-01,1,4.5593,2.2516,naive,2022-09-01,1052022-12-01,2023-01-01,1,3.5699,3.4862,naive,2022-10-01,1062023-01-01,2023-02-01,1,2.9749,2.7447,naive,2022-11-01,1072023-02-01,2023-03-01,1,2.2516,2.4408,naive,2022-12-01,1082023-03-01,2023-04-01,1,3.4862,2.4286,naive,2023-01-01,1092023-04-01,2023-05-01,1,2.7447,2.2154,naive,2023-02-01,1102023-05-01,2023-06-01,1,2.4408,1.6614,naive,2023-03-01,1112023-06-01,2023-07-01,1,2.4286,1.6246,naive,2023-04-01,1122023-07-01,2023-08-01,1,2.2154,1.369,naive,2023-05-01,1132023-08-01,2023-09-01,1,1.6614,1.1132,naive,2023-06-01,1142023-09-01,2023-10-01,1,1.6246,1.3324,naive,2023-07-01,1152023-10-01,2023-11-01,1,1.369,1.7142,naive,2023-08-01,1162023-11-01,2023-12-01,1,1.1132,1.8857,naive,2023-09-01,1172023-12-01,2024-01-01,1,1.3324,1.1884,naive,2023-10-01,1182024-01-01,2024-02-01,1,1.7142,1.4547,naive,2023-11-01,1192024-02-01,2024-03-01,1,1.8857,1.1964,naive,2023-12-01,1202024-03-01,2024-04-01,1,1.1884,1.5521,naive,2024-01-01,1212024-04-01,2024-05-01,1,1.4547,1.6785,naive,2024-02-01,1222024-05-01,2024-06-01,1,1.1964,2.0314,naive,2024-03-01,1232024-06-01,2024-07-01,1,1.5521,2.12,naive,2024-04-01,1242024-07-01,2024-08-01,1,1.6785,2.1932,naive,2024-05-01,1252024-08-01,2024-09-01,1,2.0314,2.5041,naive,2024-06-01,1262024-09-01,2024-10-01,1,2.12,2.8193,naive,2024-07-01,1272024-10-01,2024-11-01,1,2.1932,2.3398,naive,2024-08-01,1282024-11-01,2024-12-01,1,2.5041,2.6735,naive,2024-09-01,1292024-12-01,2025-01-01,1,2.8193,2.9557,naive,2024-10-01,1302025-01-01,2025-02-01,1,2.3398,2.1683,naive,2024-11-01,1312025-02-01,2025-03-01,1,2.6735,2.3227,naive,2024-12-01,1322025-03-01,2025-04-01,1,2.9557,1.8738,naive,2025-01-01,1332025-04-01,2025-05-01,1,2.1683,1.5619,naive,2025-02-01,1342025-05-01,2025-06-01,1,2.3227,1.2753,naive,2025-03-01,1352025-06-01,2025-07-01,1,1.8738,1.7373,naive,2025-04-01,1362025-07-01,2025-08-01,1,1.5619,1.5573,naive,2025-05-01,1372025-08-01,2025-09-01,1,1.2753,1.5074,naive,2025-06-01,1382025-09-01,2025-10-01,1,1.7373,0.806,naive,2025-07-01,1392025-10-01,2025-11-01,1,1.5573,1.1039,naive,2025-08-01,1402025-11-01,2025-12-01,1,1.5074,1.0085,naive,2025-09-01,1412025-12-01,2026-01-01,1,0.806,0.4466,naive,2025-10-01,1422026-01-01,2026-02-01,1,1.1039,0.7697,naive,2025-11-01,1432026-02-01,2026-03-01,1,1.0085,0.4175,naive,2025-12-01,1442026-03-01,2026-04-01,1,0.4466,1.1488,naive,2026-01-01,1452026-04-01,2026-05-01,1,0.7697,1.6466,naive,2026-02-01,1462022-05-01,2022-08-01,3,4.9335,4.8317,naive,2022-03-01,1472022-06-01,2022-09-01,3,6.0468,4.5593,naive,2022-04-01,1482022-07-01,2022-10-01,3,6.5129,3.5699,naive,2022-05-01,1492022-08-01,2022-11-01,3,5.9571,2.9749,naive,2022-06-01,1502022-09-01,2022-12-01,3,5.3974,2.2516,naive,2022-07-01,1512022-10-01,2023-01-01,3,4.8317,3.4862,naive,2022-08-01,1522022-11-01,2023-02-01,3,4.5593,2.7447,naive,2022-09-01,1532022-12-01,2023-03-01,3,3.5699,2.4408,naive,2022-10-01,1542023-01-01,2023-04-01,3,2.9749,2.4286,naive,2022-11-01,1552023-02-01,2023-05-01,3,2.2516,2.2154,naive,2022-12-01,1562023-03-01,2023-06-01,3,3.4862,1.6614,naive,2023-01-01,1572023-04-01,2023-07-01,3,2.7447,1.6246,naive,2023-02-01,1582023-05-01,2023-08-01,3,2.4408,1.369,naive,2023-03-01,1592023-06-01,2023-09-01,3,2.4286,1.1132,naive,2023-04-01,1602023-07-01,2023-10-01,3,2.2154,1.3324,naive,2023-05-01,1612023-08-01,2023-11-01,3,1.6614,1.7142,naive,2023-06-01,1622023-09-01,2023-12-01,3,1.6246,1.8857,naive,2023-07-01,1632023-10-01,2024-01-01,3,1.369,1.1884,naive,2023-08-01,1642023-11-01,2024-02-01,3,1.1132,1.4547,naive,2023-09-01,1652023-12-01,2024-03-01,3,1.3324,1.1964,naive,2023-10-01,1662024-01-01,2024-04-01,3,1.7142,1.5521,naive,2023-11-01,1672024-02-01,2024-05-01,3,1.8857,1.6785,naive,2023-12-01,1682024-03-01,2024-06-01,3,1.1884,2.0314,naive,2024-01-01,1692024-04-01,2024-07-01,3,1.4547,2.12,naive,2024-02-01,1702024-05-01,2024-08-01,3,1.1964,2.1932,naive,2024-03-01,1712024-06-01,2024-09-01,3,1.5521,2.5041,naive,2024-04-01,1722024-07-01,2024-10-01,3,1.6785,2.8193,naive,2024-05-01,1732024-08-01,2024-11-01,3,2.0314,2.3398,naive,2024-06-01,1742024-09-01,2024-12-01,3,2.12,2.6735,naive,2024-07-01,1752024-10-01,2025-01-01,3,2.1932,2.9557,naive,2024-08-01,1762024-11-01,2025-02-01,3,2.5041,2.1683,naive,2024-09-01,1772024-12-01,2025-03-01,3,2.8193,2.3227,naive,2024-10-01,1782025-01-01,2025-04-01,3,2.3398,1.8738,naive,2024-11-01,1792025-02-01,2025-05-01,3,2.6735,1.5619,naive,2024-12-01,1802025-03-01,2025-06-01,3,2.9557,1.2753,naive,2025-01-01,1812025-04-01,2025-07-01,3,2.1683,1.7373,naive,2025-02-01,1822025-05-01,2025-08-01,3,2.3227,1.5573,naive,2025-03-01,1832025-06-01,2025-09-01,3,1.8738,1.5074,naive,2025-04-01,1842025-07-01,2025-10-01,3,1.5619,0.806,naive,2025-05-01,1852025-08-01,2025-11-01,3,1.2753,1.1039,naive,2025-06-01,1862025-09-01,2025-12-01,3,1.7373,1.0085,naive,2025-07-01,1872025-10-01,2026-01-01,3,1.5573,0.4466,naive,2025-08-01,1882025-11-01,2026-02-01,3,1.5074,0.7697,naive,2025-09-01,1892025-12-01,2026-03-01,3,0.806,0.4175,naive,2025-10-01,1902026-01-01,2026-04-01,3,1.1039,1.1488,naive,2025-11-01,1912026-02-01,2026-05-01,3,1.0085,1.6466,naive,2025-12-01,1922026-03-01,2026-06-01,3,0.4466,2.0909,naive,2026-01-01,1932026-04-01,2026-07-01,3,0.7697,1.4203,naive,2026-02-01,194