1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-01",3 "model_name": "dar_emp",4 "model_description": "Direct OLS per horizon h: gdp_yoy[m] = a + b*gdp_yoy[m-h-2] + c*emp_yoy[m-h-1], re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window from 1999-01 using only GDP<=t-2 and employment<=t-1, excluding pairs touching 2020-03..2021-12; forecast = a + b*gdp_yoy[t-2] + c*emp_yoy[t-1].",5 "n_origins": 48,6 "first_origin": "2022-05-01",7 "last_origin": "2026-04-01",8 "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",9 "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",10 "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,11 "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,12 "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,13 "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,14 "rmse_model_h1": 0.7431234005043874,15 "mae_model_h1": 0.6033834780707515,16 "rmse_model_h3": 0.8846320879202041,17 "mae_model_h3": 0.7345458638325594,18 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08664663491733049,19 "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.2239951751397795,20 "feasibility": "complete",21 "feasibility_reason": null,22 "data_issues": [23 {24 "issue": "gdp_yoy/emp_yoy populated for 1998 although README says empty; not verifiable from levels",25 "handling": "1998 months excluded from all estimation samples"26 },27 {28 "issue": "COVID-19 outliers 2020-03..2021-12 (GDP yoy from -16.2 to +18.5 %)",29 "handling": "training pairs touching this window excluded from model estimation; sensitivity without exclusion reported (sens_* keys)"30 },31 {32 "issue": "current-vintage data, not real-time vintages; future months present in file",33 "handling": "per-origin truncation to GDP<=t-2, employment<=t-1; no real-time validity claimed"34 },35 {36 "issue": "GDP missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published)",37 "handling": "not needed: latest target is 2026-07"38 }39 ],40 "n_input_rows": {41 "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 34542 },43 "n_analysed": 298,44 "n_analysed_h3_last_origin": 294,45 "random_seed": null,46 "dm_stat_h1": -2.0786567385127537,47 "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.043133111090456186,48 "dm_stat_h3": -1.7160497992350492,49 "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.09273847211857501,50 "sens_nocovidexcl_rmse_model_h1": 0.7917413063357474,51 "sens_nocovidexcl_mae_model_h1": 0.6651695396431284,52 "sens_nocovidexcl_rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.026891649588910882,53 "sens_nocovidexcl_rmse_model_h3": 0.7760187171720593,54 "sens_nocovidexcl_mae_model_h3": 0.6651383260960358,55 "sens_nocovidexcl_rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.319271506278804356}