1{2 "task_id": "F3-conf-01",3 "model_name": "dir_ols_emp",4 "model_description": "Direct h-step OLS of gdp_yoy(s) on a constant, gdp_yoy(s-h-2) and emp_yoy(s-h-1), re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window from 1998 with targets <= t-2, excluding rows whose target or regressor month lies in 2020-03..2021-12; forecast plugs in gdp_yoy(t-2) and emp_yoy(t-1).",5 "n_origins": 48,6 "first_origin": "2022-05-01",7 "last_origin": "2026-04-01",8 "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",9 "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",10 "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,11 "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,12 "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,13 "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,14 "rmse_model_h1": 0.7429391714223801,15 "mae_model_h1": 0.6039917578066155,16 "rmse_model_h3": 0.9023000239646665,17 "mae_model_h3": 0.7534546734385598,18 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08687306602134803,19 "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.20849675065004825,20 "feasibility": "complete",21 "feasibility_reason": null,22 "data_issues": [23 {24 "issue": "gdp_level/gdp_yoy missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published)",25 "handling": "Not needed: latest target is 2026-07; rows never used as GDP information."26 },27 {28 "issue": "gdp_yoy and emp_yoy for 1998 depend on 1997 levels absent from the file and cannot be re-verified (all later yoy values match levels exactly)",29 "handling": "Accepted as given."30 },31 {32 "issue": "COVID-19 shock 2020-03..2021-12 with yoy values between -16 and +19 percent (extreme leverage)",33 "handling": "Regression rows touching this window excluded from model estimation (pre-specified); naive unaffected."34 },35 {36 "issue": "Current-vintage (revised) data, not historical first releases",37 "handling": "Only publication timing simulated; no real-time validity claimed."38 }39 ],40 "n_input_rows": {41 "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 34542 },43 "n_analysed": 310,44 "random_seed": null,45 "dm_stat_h1": 2.0256610645246287,46 "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h1": 0.048498197529364746,47 "dm_stat_h3": 1.6396991600561308,48 "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h3": 0.10774494757001676,49 "rmse_ablation_no_emp_h1": 0.7153894841379895,50 "rmse_ablation_no_emp_h3": 0.864029407608410651}