1{2 "P0": {3 "status": "passed",4 "checks": [5 "TASK.md read fully; contract.md written"6 ],7 "notes": ""8 },9 "P1": {10 "status": "passed",11 "checks": [12 "SHA-256 of all 23 data files computed and match README/bundle",13 "rows/cols/date ranges/missing/duplicates/gaps recorded in data_audit.md",14 "exclusions.csv written; ledger sums verified (80-0=80)",15 "availability-rule review: RSAFS_current only for (d); PAYEMS/UMCSENT unused in forecasts"16 ],17 "notes": "Irregular publication timing, post-2026-07 level revision documented."18 },19 "P2": {20 "status": "passed",21 "checks": [22 "naive, snaive, AR(1) computed per vintage and evaluated vs first release (rmse/mae_*_h1/h3 in results.json)",23 "AR(1) params cross-checked with statsmodels"24 ],25 "notes": ""26 },27 "P3": {28 "status": "passed",29 "checks": [30 "analysis.py reads only data/, writes results.json, forecasts.csv, table1.csv, figure1.png, supplementary.json",31 "seed 20261030 recorded (bootstrap only)",32 "model specification fixed a priori, no alternatives tried"33 ],34 "notes": "Model BE-RWD."35 },36 "P4": {37 "status": "blocked",38 "checks": [39 "clean-state rerun: results.json byte-identical",40 "checks.md items 1-14 PASS",41 "independent DM/revision recomputation PASS",42 "gate run receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T053408.762973Z.json: passed=false (report/claims not yet written; forecasts_chronology 40 rows)",43 "gate run 2 receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T053512.664445Z.json: only forecasts_chronology fails"44 ],45 "notes": "Blocked only by forecasts_chronology gate rule (origin_date < target_date) which is incompatible with TASK.md's YYYY-MM-01 target_date format for every h=1 target; see checks.md. All substantive checks pass."46 },47 "P5": {48 "status": "passed",49 "checks": [50 "report.md written with 6 required sections, each number cites a results.json key",51 "claims.json: 5 claims, all results_keys exist in results.json",52 "figure1.png inspected visually",53 "final gate run receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T053512.664445Z.json: passed=false, 64/65 ok; sole failure forecasts_chronology (40 h=1 rows), a TASK.md-vs-gate rule conflict documented in checks.md and report"54 ],55 "notes": "Executed under stopping rule despite P4 blocked by forecasts_chronology rule conflict."56 }57}