1{2 "P0": {3 "status": "passed",4 "checks": [5 "TASK.md read fully; contract.md written"6 ],7 "notes": ""8 },9 "P1": {10 "status": "passed",11 "checks": [12 "SHA-256 of all 23 data files computed and match data/README.md/bundle.json",13 "row/col counts, date ranges, NaN, duplicate dates and monthly gaps checked for every file (no gaps/dups; UMCSENT 210 empty pre-1978)",14 "last(V) for each vintage tabulated; publication delays recorded",15 "RSAFS_current flagged as forecast-forbidden; used only for (d)"16 ],17 "notes": "see data_audit.md"18 },19 "P2": {20 "status": "passed",21 "checks": [22 "naive, seasonal naive, AR(1) baselines computed per TASK rules for 10 origins x 2 horizons",23 "naive forecasts verified equal to first-release YoY of last(V) where that month's first release is in vintage V"24 ],25 "notes": "baseline keys rmse/mae_{naive,snaive,ar1}_h{1,3}"26 },27 "P3": {28 "status": "passed",29 "checks": [30 "analysis.py reads only data/, writes results.json, forecasts.csv, table1.csv, figure1.png, exclusions.csv",31 "model pre-specified (RW+drift on log level, 12m drift), no tuning on actuals",32 "no randomness; random_seed null"33 ],34 "notes": ""35 },36 "P4": {37 "status": "blocked",38 "checks": [39 "clean re-run of analysis.py: results.json byte-identical (cmp)",40 "15 internal-consistency checks in checks.md: 14 ok, 1 fails (origin_date<target_date for 40 h=1 rows, structural)",41 "gate run 1: receipt 20261030T053622.377099Z.json - fails sections/claims/phase (not yet written) and forecasts_chronology (structural)",42 "gate run 2 (end of P5): receipt 20261030T053807.287572Z.json - 64/65 ok; only forecasts_chronology fails (structural)"43 ],44 "notes": "Blocked only by gate forecasts_chronology rule, which is unsatisfiable under TASK.md's definitions (target=last(V)+h, target_date YYYY-MM-01, last(V) lags origin). Dates not altered to avoid misrepresentation."45 },46 "P5": {47 "status": "passed",48 "checks": [49 "report.md written with 6 required sections, every number cites a results.json key",50 "claims.json written: 5 claims, all keys exist in results.json",51 "gate run 2: receipt 20261030T053807.287572Z.json - passed=false solely due to forecasts_chronology (documented)"52 ],53 "notes": "Reporting completed per stopping rule (all required files written despite P4 block)."54 }55}