1/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/discrete/conditional_models.py:80: UserWarning: Dropped 37 groups and 2823 observations for having no within-group variance2 warnings.warn(msg)3/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals4 warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to "5=== PRIMARY ===6 model term coef se p n events7 C1 primary: Y456 ~ P + X + region FE + year FE P_modern_z 0.398 0.089 0.000 14637 2692.08 C2: Y456 ~ P + FE only P_modern_z 0.723 0.080 0.000 15687 2981.09 C3: Y456 ~ P + K + X + FE (P given K) P_modern_z 0.229 0.094 0.015 14637 2692.010 B1 baseline population only D_modern_z 0.126 0.071 0.076 14754 2710.011 B2 baseline capacity only K_modern_z -0.632 0.126 0.000 15675 2957.012 B3 baseline development (gdppc) only log_gdppc -0.557 0.095 0.000 15862 2980.013 B4 baseline persistence y456_b5 0.136 0.133 0.307 15806 2968.014 B5 D and K separately D_modern_z 0.170 0.070 0.015 14637 2692.015 B5 D and K separately K_modern_z -0.707 0.137 0.000 14637 NaN16 Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled) P_placebo_z 0.197 0.059 0.001 14754 2710.017 Placebo comparison: P_main with the same controls as the placebo P_modern_z 0.446 0.083 0.000 14676 2706.018Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms) P_modern_z 0.436 0.098 0.000 14608 2757.019 Forward comparison for the negative control: future events ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE P_modern_z 0.475 0.099 0.000 14637 2692.020 C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE P_modern_z 1.314 0.098 0.000 14637 2692.021 C5: linear probability, country + year FE P_modern_z_dm 0.111 0.031 0.000 14637 2692.02223=== OOS wins ===24 model baseline folds win_share mean_diff scheme metric25 C1 P B0 FE+X 2 0.500 -0.000 forward oos_loglik26 C1 P B0 FE+X 2 1.000 0.005 forward auc27 C1 P B1 D 2 0.500 0.000 forward oos_loglik28 C1 P B1 D 2 1.000 0.004 forward auc29 C1 P B2 K 2 0.000 -0.003 forward oos_loglik30 C1 P B2 K 2 0.000 -0.004 forward auc31 C1 P B4 persistence 2 1.000 0.002 forward oos_loglik32 C1 P B4 persistence 2 1.000 0.010 forward auc33 C1 P B5 D+K 2 0.000 -0.002 forward oos_loglik34 C1 P B5 D+K 2 0.000 -0.006 forward auc35 C1 P B0 FE+X 6 0.833 -0.000 loro oos_loglik36 C1 P B0 FE+X 6 0.833 0.008 loro auc37 C1 P B1 D 6 0.833 0.001 loro oos_loglik38 C1 P B1 D 6 1.000 0.007 loro auc39 C1 P B2 K 6 0.167 -0.009 loro oos_loglik40 C1 P B2 K 6 0.500 0.002 loro auc41 C1 P B4 persistence 6 0.833 -0.001 loro oos_loglik42 C1 P B4 persistence 6 0.667 0.008 loro auc43 C1 P B5 D+K 6 0.167 -0.008 loro oos_loglik44 C1 P B5 D+K 6 0.500 -0.001 loro auc4546=== OOS summary ===47 scheme model oos_loglik auc brier calibration_slope48forward B0 FE+X -0.334 0.768 0.102 0.96649forward B1 D -0.334 0.769 0.103 0.95750forward B2 K -0.331 0.777 0.101 0.98651forward B4 persistence -0.336 0.763 0.103 0.95152forward B5 D+K -0.332 0.779 0.102 0.97353forward C1 P -0.334 0.773 0.103 0.95154 loro B0 FE+X -0.518 0.674 0.142 0.43755 loro B1 D -0.519 0.674 0.142 0.43756 loro B2 K -0.509 0.680 0.139 0.43057 loro B4 persistence -0.517 0.674 0.141 0.43758 loro B5 D+K -0.510 0.683 0.140 0.43159 loro C1 P -0.518 0.681 0.142 0.4356061=== H4 === {62 "folds": 15,63 "hinge_beats_linear_share": 0.8,64 "spline_beats_linear_share": 0.8666666666666667,65 "mean_ll_linear": -0.409645164238164,66 "mean_ll_hinge": -0.4086639943897043,67 "mean_ll_spline": -0.40637513694095,68 "median_knot": -0.0808585402068686169}7071=== H5 ===72 model coef se p n within_block_coef within_block_se within_block_n within_block_events73 H5 leave-region-out: 1.0 0.293 0.094 0.002 13252 1.067 0.432 1385 13174 H5 leave-region-out: 2.0 0.328 0.099 0.001 12017 0.542 0.292 2620 77375 H5 leave-region-out: 3.0 0.303 0.097 0.002 13175 0.449 0.350 1462 28176 H5 leave-region-out: 4.0 0.312 0.117 0.008 11363 0.391 0.167 3274 74777 H5 leave-region-out: 5.0 0.294 0.097 0.002 10717 0.781 0.285 3920 35078 H5 leave-region-out: 6.0 0.470 0.093 0.000 12661 0.234 0.206 1976 41079H5 leave-period-out: 1900-1945 0.415 0.099 0.000 12616 0.298 0.187 2021 55480H5 leave-period-out: 1946-1989 0.361 0.113 0.001 8927 0.435 0.122 5710 129581 H5 leave-period-out: 1990+ 0.417 0.106 0.000 9285 0.348 0.161 5352 62682 H5 leave-period-out: pre-1900 0.394 0.092 0.000 13083 0.665 0.277 1554 2178384=== ROBUSTNESS ===85 model term coef se p n events oster_beta_full oster_beta_short partial_r2_P robustness_value86 R: horizon h=1 P_modern_z 0.3258 0.0908 0.0003 14635 902.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN87 R: horizon h=3 P_modern_z 0.3860 0.0871 0.0000 14636 1911.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN88 R: horizon h=10 P_modern_z 0.4532 0.1005 0.0000 14639 4143.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN89 R: component y4_f5 P_modern_z 1.0108 0.1970 0.0000 10279 566.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN90 R: component y5_f5 P_modern_z 0.1957 0.1369 0.1529 10853 1460.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN91 R: component y6_f5 P_modern_z 0.2452 0.0940 0.0091 14636 2068.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN92 R: K = PC1 P_modern_pc1_z 0.3972 0.0895 0.0000 14637 2692.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN93 R: standardized within year P_modern_within_year_z 0.4091 0.0909 0.0000 14637 2692.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN94 R: D = (log pop + log area)/2 P_modern_area_z 0.3520 0.0979 0.0003 11735 2359.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN95 R: years ≥ 1900 P_modern_z 0.3941 0.0918 0.0000 13083 2475.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN96 R: polyarchy not controlled P_modern_z 0.4463 0.0828 0.0000 14676 2706.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN97 R: + persistence control P_modern_z 0.3904 0.0888 0.0000 14598 2682.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN98Sensitivity (LPM): Oster bias-adjusted β at Rmax=1.3·R² (δ=1); Cinelli–Hazlett RV P_modern_z -0.0238 NaN NaN 14637 NaN 0.0383 0.0819 0.0056 0.071999