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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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	1	+% Generated by src/wp35/validation/build_bib.py from Crossref (by DOI) and verified manual entries.
	2	+
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	10	+
	11	+@book{arrow1974,
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	13	+ title = {The Limits of Organization},
	14	+ publisher = {W. W. Norton},
	15	+ address = {New York},
	16	+ year = {1974}
	17	+}
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	24	+
	25	+@book{beniger1986,
	26	+ author = {Beniger, James R.},
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	28	+ publisher = {Harvard University Press},
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	31	+}
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	34	+
	35	+@book{besley2011, title={Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters}, ISBN={9781400840526}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691152684.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691152684.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Besley, Timothy and Persson, Torsten}, year={2011}, month=Aug }
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	40	+
	41	+@book{blanton2008, title={Collective Action in the Formation of Pre-Modern States}, ISBN={9780387738772}, ISSN={1567-8040}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-73877-2}, DOI={10.1007/978-0-387-73877-2}, journal={Fundamental Issues in Archaeology}, publisher={Springer New York}, author={Blanton, Richard and Fargher, Lane}, year={2008} }
	42	+
	43	+@article{blaydes2013, title={The Feudal Revolution and Europe’s Rise: Political Divergence of the Christian West and the Muslim World before 1500 CE}, volume={107}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055412000561}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055412000561}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={BLAYDES, LISA and CHANEY, ERIC}, year={2013}, month=Jan, pages={16–34} }
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	51	+@article{borcan2018, title={State history and economic development: evidence from six millennia}, volume={23}, ISSN={1573-7020}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-017-9152-0}, DOI={10.1007/s10887-017-9152-0}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Growth}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Borcan, Oana and Olsson, Ola and Putterman, Louis}, year={2017}, month=Dec, pages={1–40} }
	52	+
	53	+@book{boxsteffensmeier2004, title={Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists}, ISBN={9780511790874}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511790874}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511790874}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S.}, year={2004}, month=Mar }
	54	+
	55	+@book{boyd1985,
	56	+ author = {Boyd, Robert and Richerson, Peter J.},
	57	+ title = {Culture and the Evolutionary Process},
	58	+ publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	59	+ address = {Chicago},
	60	+ year = {1985}
	61	+}
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	64	+
	65	+@article{brambor2020, title={The Lay of the Land: Information Capacity and the Modern State}, volume={53}, ISSN={1552-3829}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414019843432}, DOI={10.1177/0010414019843432}, number={2}, journal={Comparative Political Studies}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Brambor, Thomas and Goenaga, Agustín and Lindvall, Johannes and Teorell, Jan}, year={2019}, month=May, pages={175–213} }
	66	+
	67	+@article{butzer2012, title={Collapse, environment, and society}, volume={109}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1114845109}, number={10}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Butzer, Karl W.}, year={2012}, month=Feb, pages={3632–3639} }
	68	+
	69	+@article{calvoarmengol2015, title={Communication and influence: Communication and influence}, volume={10}, ISSN={1933-6837}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/te1468}, DOI={10.3982/te1468}, number={2}, journal={Theoretical Economics}, publisher={The Econometric Society}, author={Calvó-Armengol, Antoni and de Martí, Joan and Prat, Andrea}, year={2015}, month=May, pages={649–690} }
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	72	+
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	80	+
	81	+@book{chandler1977,
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	90	+
	91	+@book{chwe2001, title={Rational Ritual: Culture, Coordination, and Common Knowledge}, ISBN={9781400846436}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691158280.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691158280.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Chwe, Michael Suk-Young}, year={2013}, month=Apr }
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	107	+@article{crawford1982, title={Strategic Information Transmission}, volume={50}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913390}, DOI={10.2307/1913390}, number={6}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Crawford, Vincent P. and Sobel, Joel}, year={1982}, month=Nov, pages={1431} }
	108	+
	109	+@article{cremer2007, title={Language and the Theory of the Firm}, volume={122}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.1.373}, DOI={10.1162/qjec.122.1.373}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cremer, J. and Garicano, L. and Prat, A.}, year={2007}, month=Feb, pages={373–407} }
	110	+
	111	+@article{currie2010, title={Rise and fall of political complexity in island South-East Asia and the Pacific}, volume={467}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09461}, DOI={10.1038/nature09461}, number={7317}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Currie, Thomas E. and Greenhill, Simon J. and Gray, Russell D. and Hasegawa, Toshikazu and Mace, Ruth}, year={2010}, month=Oct, pages={801–804} }
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	116	+
	117	+@inbook{dedeo2017, title={Major Transitions in Political Order}, ISBN={9781316584200}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584200.016}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584200.016}, booktitle={From Matter to Life}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Dedeo, Simon}, year={2017}, month=Feb, pages={393–428} }
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	149	+@article{fernandezvillaverde2023, title={The Fractured-Land Hypothesis}, volume={138}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad003}, DOI={10.1093/qje/qjad003}, number={2}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Koyama, Mark and Lin, Youhong and Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2023}, month=Jan, pages={1173–1231} }
	150	+
	151	+@article{flack2012, title={Multiple time-scales and the developmental dynamics of social systems}, volume={367}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0214}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2011.0214}, number={1597}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2012}, month=July, pages={1802–1810} }
	152	+
	153	+@article{flack2017, title={Coarse-graining as a downward causation mechanism}, volume={375}, ISSN={1471-2962}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0338}, DOI={10.1098/rsta.2016.0338}, number={2109}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2017}, month=Nov, pages={20160338} }
	154	+
	155	+@article{flannery1972, title={The Cultural Evolution of Civilizations}, volume={3}, ISSN={0066-4162}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.002151}, DOI={10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.002151}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Flannery, Kent V.}, year={1972}, month=Nov, pages={399–426} }
	156	+
	157	+@article{francois2016, title={A Macroscope for Global History: Seshat Global History Databank, a methodological overview}, volume={10}, ISSN={1938-4122}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.63744/e3j3d5qsvq99}, DOI={10.63744/e3j3d5qsvq99}, number={4}, journal={Digital Humanities Quarterly}, publisher={The Association for Computers and the Humanities}, author={François, Pieter and Manning, J.G. and Whitehouse, Harvey and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Turchin, Peter}, year={2016}, month=Oct }
	158	+
	159	+@book{fukuyama2011,
	160	+ author = {Fukuyama, Francis},
	161	+ title = {The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the {F}rench Revolution},
	162	+ publisher = {Farrar, Straus and Giroux},
	163	+ address = {New York},
	164	+ year = {2011}
	165	+}
	166	+
	167	+@article{galeotti2013, title={Strategic information transmission networks}, volume={148}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.016}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.016}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Galeotti, Andrea and Ghiglino, Christian and Squintani, Francesco}, year={2013}, month=Sept, pages={1751–1769} }
	168	+
	169	+@article{garicano2000, title={Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production}, volume={108}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/317671}, DOI={10.1086/317671}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Garicano, Luis}, year={2000}, month=Oct, pages={874–904} }
	170	+
	171	+@article{gavrilets2008, title={Dynamics of Alliance Formation and the Egalitarian Revolution}, volume={3}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0003293}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0003293}, number={10}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Gavrilets, Sergey and Duenez-Guzman, Edgar A. and Vose, Michael D.}, editor={Svensson, Erik I.}, year={2008}, month=Oct, pages={e3293} }
	172	+
	173	+@article{gelman2014, title={The Statistical Crisis in Science}, volume={102}, ISSN={1545-2786}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1511/2014.111.460}, DOI={10.1511/2014.111.460}, number={6}, journal={American Scientist}, publisher={Sigma Xi}, author={Gelman, Andrew and Loken, Eric}, year={2014}, pages={460} }
	174	+
	175	+@article{gennaioli2015, title={State Capacity and Military Conflict}, volume={82}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv019}, DOI={10.1093/restud/rdv019}, number={4}, journal={The Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Gennaioli, Nicola and Voth, Hans-Joachim}, year={2015}, month=May, pages={1409–1448} }
	176	+
	177	+@misc{glottolog2026,
	178	+ author = {Hammarstr{\"o}m, Harald and Forkel, Robert and Haspelmath, Martin and Bank, Sebastian},
	179	+ title = {Glottolog 5.3},
	180	+ year = {2026},
	181	+ howpublished = {Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, \url{https://glottolog.org}},
	182	+ note = {CLDF languages table, accessed 2026-11-01}
	183	+}
	184	+
	185	+@book{goldstone1991,
	186	+ author = {Goldstone, Jack A.},
	187	+ title = {Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World},
	188	+ publisher = {University of California Press},
	189	+ address = {Berkeley},
	190	+ year = {1991}
	191	+}
	192	+
	193	+@article{goldstone2010, title={A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability}, volume={54}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Goldstone, Jack A. and Bates, Robert H. and Epstein, David L. and Gurr, Ted Robert and Lustik, Michael B. and Marshall, Monty G. and Ulfelder, Jay and Woodward, Mark}, year={2009}, month=Dec, pages={190–208} }
	194	+
	195	+@book{graeber2021,
	196	+ author = {Graeber, David and Wengrow, David},
	197	+ title = {The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity},
	198	+ publisher = {Farrar, Straus and Giroux},
	199	+ address = {New York},
	200	+ year = {2021}
	201	+}
	202	+
	203	+@article{greif1993,
	204	+ author = {Greif, Avner},
	205	+ title = {Contract Enforceability and Economic Institutions in Early Trade: The {M}aghribi Traders' Coalition},
	206	+ journal = {American Economic Review},
	207	+ volume = {83},
	208	+ number = {3},
	209	+ pages = {525--548},
	210	+ year = {1993}
	211	+}
	212	+
	213	+@book{greif2006, title={Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade}, ISBN={9780511791307}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511791307}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511791307}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Greif, Avner}, year={2006}, month=Jan }
	214	+
	215	+@article{hagenbach2010, title={Strategic Communication Networks}, volume={77}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.591.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.591.x}, number={3}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={HAGENBACH, JEANNE and KOESSLER, FRÉDÉRIC}, year={2009}, month=Dec, pages={1072–1099} }
	216	+
	217	+@article{hamilton2007, title={The complex structure of hunter–gatherer social networks}, volume={274}, ISSN={1471-2954}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.0564}, DOI={10.1098/rspb.2007.0564}, number={1622}, journal={Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Hamilton, Marcus J and Milne, Bruce T and Walker, Robert S and Burger, Oskar and Brown, James H}, year={2007}, month=July, pages={2195–2203} }
	218	+
	219	+@article{hanson2021, title={Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring State Capacity for Comparative Political Research}, volume={83}, ISSN={1468-2508}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/715066}, DOI={10.1086/715066}, number={4}, journal={The Journal of Politics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Hanson, Jonathan K. and Sigman, Rachel}, year={2021}, month=Oct, pages={1495–1510} }
	220	+
	221	+@article{hayek1945,
	222	+ author = {Hayek, Friedrich A.},
	223	+ title = {The Use of Knowledge in Society},
	224	+ journal = {American Economic Review},
	225	+ volume = {35},
	226	+ number = {4},
	227	+ pages = {519--530},
	228	+ year = {1945}
	229	+}
	230	+
	231	+@article{hegre2001, title={Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992}, volume={95}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055401000119}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055401000119}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Hegre, Håvard}, year={2001}, month=Mar, pages={33–48} }
	232	+
	233	+@article{henrich2004, title={Cultural group selection, coevolutionary processes and large-scale cooperation}, volume={53}, ISSN={0167-2681}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00094-5}, DOI={10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00094-5}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Henrich, Joseph}, year={2004}, month=Jan, pages={3–35} }
	234	+
	235	+@book{hidalgo2015,
	236	+ author = {Hidalgo, C{\'e}sar},
	237	+ title = {Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies},
	238	+ publisher = {Basic Books},
	239	+ address = {New York},
	240	+ year = {2015}
	241	+}
	242	+
	243	+@book{hoffman2015, title={Why Did Europe Conquer the World?}, ISBN={9780691139708}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc778hd}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvc778hd}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={HOFFMAN, PHILIP T.}, year={2015}, month=June }
	244	+
	245	+@book{hosmer2013, title={Applied Logistic Regression}, ISBN={9781118548387}, ISSN={1940-6347}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118548387}, DOI={10.1002/9781118548387}, journal={Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Hosmer, David W. and Lemeshow, Stanley and Sturdivant, Rodney X.}, year={2013}, month=Mar }
	246	+
	247	+@article{hoyer2023, title={Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate}, volume={378}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0402}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2022.0402}, number={1889}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Hoyer, Daniel and Bennett, James S. and Reddish, Jenny and Holder, Samantha and Howard, Robert and Benam, Majid and Levine, Jill and Ludlow, Francis and Feinman, Gary and Turchin, Peter}, year={2023}, month=Sept }
	248	+
	249	+@article{hoyer2024, title={All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The role of societal instability in shaping the past}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd}, DOI={10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd}, publisher={Center for Open Science}, author={Hoyer, Daniel and Holder, Samantha Louise and Bennett, James S and François, Pieter and Whitehouse, Harvey and Covey, Alan and Feinman, Gary and Korotayev, Andrey and Vustiuzhanin, Vadim and Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes and Bard, Kathryn and Levine, Jill and Reddish, Jenny and Orlandi, Georg and Ainsworth, Rachel and Turchin, Peter}, year={2024}, month=Feb }
	250	+
	251	+@book{innis1950,
	252	+ author = {Innis, Harold A.},
	253	+ title = {Empire and Communications},
	254	+ publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	255	+ address = {Oxford},
	256	+ year = {1950}
	257	+}
	258	+
	259	+@book{jackson2008, title={Social and Economic Networks}, ISBN={9781400833993}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400833993}, DOI={10.1515/9781400833993}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Jackson, Matthew O.}, year={2008}, month=Dec }
	260	+
	261	+@incollection{johnson1978,
	262	+ author = {Johnson, Gregory A.},
	263	+ title = {Information Sources and the Development of Decision-Making Organizations},
	264	+ booktitle = {Social Archeology: Beyond Subsistence and Dating},
	265	+ editor = {Redman, Charles L. and others},
	266	+ publisher = {Academic Press},
	267	+ address = {New York},
	268	+ pages = {87--112},
	269	+ year = {1978}
	270	+}
	271	+
	272	+@incollection{johnson1982,
	273	+ author = {Johnson, Gregory A.},
	274	+ title = {Organizational Structure and Scalar Stress},
	275	+ booktitle = {Theory and Explanation in Archaeology: The Southampton Conference},
	276	+ editor = {Renfrew, Colin and Rowlands, Michael J. and Segraves, Barbara Abbott},
	277	+ publisher = {Academic Press},
	278	+ address = {New York},
	279	+ pages = {389--421},
	280	+ year = {1982}
	281	+}
	282	+
	283	+@article{johnson2017, title={States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints}, volume={64}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Johnson, Noel D. and Koyama, Mark}, year={2017}, month=Apr, pages={1–20} }
	284	+
	285	+@article{kandori1993, title={Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951777}, DOI={10.2307/2951777}, number={1}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Kandori, Michihiro and Mailath, George J. and Rob, Rafael}, year={1993}, month=Jan, pages={29} }
	286	+
	287	+@article{kirby2016, title={D-PLACE: A Global Database of Cultural, Linguistic and Environmental Diversity}, volume={11}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158391}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0158391}, number={7}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Kirby, Kathryn R. and Gray, Russell D. and Greenhill, Simon J. and Jordan, Fiona M. and Gomes-Ng, Stephanie and Bibiko, Hans-Jörg and Blasi, Damián E. and Botero, Carlos A. and Bowern, Claire and Ember, Carol R. and Leehr, Dan and Low, Bobbi S. and McCarter, Joe and Divale, William and Gavin, Michael C.}, editor={Mesoudi, Alex}, year={2016}, month=July, pages={e0158391} }
	288	+
	289	+@article{ko2018, title={UNIFIED CHINA AND DIVIDED EUROPE}, volume={59}, ISSN={1468-2354}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12270}, DOI={10.1111/iere.12270}, number={1}, journal={International Economic Review}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Ko, Chiu Yu and Koyama, Mark and Sng, Tuan‐Hwee}, year={2018}, month=Feb, pages={285–327} }
	290	+
	291	+@article{kohler2017, title={Greater post-Neolithic wealth disparities in Eurasia than in North America and Mesoamerica}, volume={551}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24646}, DOI={10.1038/nature24646}, number={7682}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Kohler, Timothy A. and Smith, Michael E. and Bogaard, Amy and Feinman, Gary M. and Peterson, Christian E. and Betzenhauser, Alleen and Pailes, Matthew and Stone, Elizabeth C. and Marie Prentiss, Anna and Dennehy, Timothy J. and Ellyson, Laura J. and Nicholas, Linda M. and Faulseit, Ronald K. and Styring, Amy and Whitlam, Jade and Fochesato, Mattia and Foor, Thomas A. and Bowles, Samuel}, year={2017}, month=Nov, pages={619–622} }
	292	+
	293	+@book{kohler2018, title={Ten Thousand Years of Inequality: The Archaeology of Wealth Differences}, ISBN={9780816537747}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt20d8801}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctt20d8801}, publisher={University of Arizona Press}, year={2018}, month=Apr }
	294	+
	295	+@book{koyama2022,
	296	+ author = {Koyama, Mark and Rubin, Jared},
	297	+ title = {How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth},
	298	+ publisher = {Polity},
	299	+ address = {Cambridge},
	300	+ year = {2022}
	301	+}
	302	+
	303	+@article{krakauer2020, title={The information theory of individuality}, volume={139}, ISSN={1611-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7}, DOI={10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7}, number={2}, journal={Theory in Biosciences}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Krakauer, David and Bertschinger, Nils and Olbrich, Eckehard and Flack, Jessica C. and Ay, Nihat}, year={2020}, month=Mar, pages={209–223} }
	304	+
	305	+@inbook{kushilevitz1997, title={Communication Complexity}, ISBN={9780120121441}, ISSN={0065-2458}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60342-3}, DOI={10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60342-3}, booktitle={Advances in Computers}, publisher={Elsevier}, author={Kushilevitz, Eyal}, year={1997}, pages={331–360} }
	306	+
	307	+@article{lee2017, title={Legibility and the Informational Foundations of State Capacity}, volume={79}, ISSN={1468-2508}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/688053}, DOI={10.1086/688053}, number={1}, journal={The Journal of Politics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Lee, Melissa M. and Zhang, Nan}, year={2017}, month=Jan, pages={118–132} }
	308	+
	309	+@book{lewis1969,
	310	+ author = {Lewis, David K.},
	311	+ title = {Convention: A Philosophical Study},
	312	+ publisher = {Harvard University Press},
	313	+ address = {Cambridge, MA},
	314	+ year = {1969}
	315	+}
	316	+
	317	+@article{lindley1952, title={The theory of queues with a single server}, volume={48}, ISSN={1469-8064}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305004100027638}, DOI={10.1017/s0305004100027638}, number={2}, journal={Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Lindley, D. V.}, year={1952}, month=Apr, pages={277–289} }
	318	+
	319	+@article{lobo2020, title={Settlement scaling theory: Bridging the study of ancient and contemporary urban systems}, volume={57}, ISSN={1360-063X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098019873796}, DOI={10.1177/0042098019873796}, number={4}, journal={Urban Studies}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Lobo, Jose and Bettencourt, Luis MA and Smith, Michael E and Ortman, Scott}, year={2019}, month=Oct, pages={731–747} }
	320	+
	321	+@article{loynes1962, title={The stability of a queue with non-independent inter-arrival and service times}, volume={58}, ISSN={1469-8064}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305004100036781}, DOI={10.1017/s0305004100036781}, number={3}, journal={Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Loynes, R. M.}, year={1962}, month=July, pages={497–520} }
	322	+
	323	+@article{mace1994, title={The Comparative Method in Anthropology [and Comments and Reply]}, volume={35}, ISSN={1537-5382}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/204317}, DOI={10.1086/204317}, number={5}, journal={Current Anthropology}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Mace, Ruth and Pagel, Mark and Bowen, John R. and Otterbein, Keith F. and Ridley, Mark and Schweizer, Thomas and Voland, Eckart}, year={1994}, month=Dec, pages={549–564} }
	324	+
	325	+@article{macy2002, title={From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling}, volume={28}, ISSN={1545-2115}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117}, DOI={10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Sociology}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Macy, Michael W. and Willer, Robert}, year={2002}, month=Aug, pages={143–166} }
	326	+
	327	+@article{mann1984, title={The autonomous power of the state: its origins, mechanisms and results}, volume={25}, ISSN={1474-0583}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003975600004239}, DOI={10.1017/s0003975600004239}, number={2}, journal={European Journal of Sociology}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Mann, Michael}, year={1984}, month=Nov, pages={185–213} }
	328	+
	329	+@book{mann1986, title={The Sources of Social Power}, ISBN={9780511570896}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511570896}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511570896}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Mann, Michael}, year={1986}, month=Apr }
	330	+
	331	+@book{marschak1972,
	332	+ author = {Marschak, Jacob and Radner, Roy},
	333	+ title = {Economic Theory of Teams},
	334	+ publisher = {Yale University Press},
	335	+ address = {New Haven},
	336	+ year = {1972}
	337	+}
	338	+
	339	+@article{marzen2017, title={The evolution of lossy compression}, volume={14}, ISSN={1742-5662}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0166}, DOI={10.1098/rsif.2017.0166}, number={130}, journal={Journal of The Royal Society Interface}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Marzen, Sarah E. and DeDeo, Simon}, year={2017}, month=May, pages={20170166} }
	340	+
	341	+@article{mayshar2022, title={The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?}, volume={130}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/718372}, DOI={10.1086/718372}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Mayshar, Joram and Moav, Omer and Pascali, Luigi}, year={2022}, month=Apr, pages={1091–1144} }
	342	+
	343	+@book{mcneill1982, title={The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000}, ISBN={9780226160191}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226160191.001.0001}, DOI={10.7208/chicago/9780226160191.001.0001}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={McNeill, William H.}, year={1982} }
	344	+
	345	+@book{middleton2017, title={Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths}, ISBN={9781316606070}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584941}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584941}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Middleton, Guy D.}, year={2017}, month=June }
	346	+
	347	+@article{milgrom1990, title={THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE REVIVAL OF TRADE: THE LAW MERCHANT, PRIVATE JUDGES, AND THE CHAMPAGNE FAIRS}, volume={2}, ISSN={1468-0343}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1990.tb00020.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0343.1990.tb00020.x}, number={1}, journal={Economics \& Politics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Milgrom, Paul R. and North, Douglass C. and Weingast*, Barry R.}, year={1990}, month=Mar, pages={1–23} }
	348	+
	349	+@article{miranda2020, title={The two types of society: Computationally revealing recurrent social formations and their evolutionary trajectories}, volume={15}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232609}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0232609}, number={5}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Miranda, Lux and Freeman, Jacob}, editor={Wakano, Joe Yuichiro}, year={2020}, month=May, pages={e0232609} }
	350	+
	351	+@book{mokyr2016, title={A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy}, ISBN={9781400882915}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400882915}, DOI={10.1515/9781400882915}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Joel, Mokyr}, year={2016}, month=Nov }
	352	+
	353	+@article{morris2000, title={Contagion}, volume={67}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00121}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00121}, number={1}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Morris, Stephen}, year={2000}, month=Jan, pages={57–78} }
	354	+
	355	+@article{morris2002, title={Social Value of Public Information}, volume={92}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024610}, DOI={10.1257/000282802762024610}, number={5}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Morris, Stephen and Shin, Hyun Song}, year={2002}, month=Nov, pages={1521–1534} }
	356	+
	357	+@article{mount1974, title={The informational size of message spaces}, volume={8}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(74)90012-x}, DOI={10.1016/0022-0531(74)90012-x}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Mount, Kenneth and Reiter, Stanley}, year={1974}, month=June, pages={161–192} }
	358	+
	359	+@article{murdock1967, title={Ethnographic Atlas: A Summary}, volume={6}, ISSN={0014-1828}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3772751}, DOI={10.2307/3772751}, number={2}, journal={Ethnology}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Murdock, George Peter}, year={1967}, month=Apr, pages={109} }
	360	+
	361	+@article{naroll1956, title={A Preliminary Index of Social Development}, volume={58}, ISSN={1548-1433}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080}, DOI={10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080}, number={4}, journal={American Anthropologist}, publisher={Wiley}, author={NAROLL, RAOUL}, year={1956}, month=Aug, pages={687–715} }
	362	+
	363	+@article{nisan2006, title={The communication requirements of efficient allocations and supporting prices}, volume={129}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2004.10.007}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2004.10.007}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Nisan, Noam and Segal, Ilya}, year={2006}, month=July, pages={192–224} }
	364	+
	365	+@book{north1990, title={Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance}, ISBN={9780511808678}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511808678}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511808678}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={North, Douglass C.}, year={1990}, month=Oct }
	366	+
	367	+@article{north1991, title={Institutions}, volume={5}, ISSN={0895-3309}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.97}, DOI={10.1257/jep.5.1.97}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Perspectives}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={North, Douglass C}, year={1991}, month=Feb, pages={97–112} }
	368	+
	369	+@article{nosek2018, title={The preregistration revolution}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708274114}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708274114}, number={11}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Nosek, Brian A. and Ebersole, Charles R. and DeHaven, Alexander C. and Mellor, David T.}, year={2018}, month=Mar, pages={2600–2606} }
	370	+
	371	+@book{olson1965, title={The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, With a New Preface and Appendix}, ISBN={9780674041660}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.4159/9780674041660}, DOI={10.4159/9780674041660}, publisher={Harvard University Press}, author={Olson, Mancur}, year={1965}, month=Dec }
	372	+
	373	+@article{ortman2014, title={The Pre-History of Urban Scaling}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0087902}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0087902}, number={2}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Ortman, Scott G. and Cabaniss, Andrew H. F. and Sturm, Jennie O. and Bettencourt, Luís M. A.}, editor={Shennan, Stephen}, year={2014}, month=Feb, pages={e87902} }
	374	+
	375	+@article{oster2019, title={Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence}, volume={37}, ISSN={1537-2707}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, DOI={10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Oster, Emily}, year={2017}, month=June, pages={187–204} }
	376	+
	377	+@book{ostrom1990, title={Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action}, ISBN={9780511807763}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={1990}, month=Nov }
	378	+
	379	+@article{ostrom2010, title={Beyond Markets and States: Polycentric Governance of Complex Economic Systems}, volume={100}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, DOI={10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, number={3}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={2010}, month=June, pages={641–672} }
	380	+
	381	+@article{pemstein2018, title={The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data​}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3167764}, DOI={10.2139/ssrn.3167764}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Pemstein, Daniel and Marquardt, Kyle L. and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wang, Yi-ting and Krusell, Joshua and Miri, Farhad}, year={2018} }
	382	+
	383	+@article{peregrine2017, title={Political participation and long-term resilience in pre-Columbian societies}, volume={26}, ISSN={0965-3562}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, DOI={10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, number={3}, journal={Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal}, publisher={Emerald}, author={Peregrine, Peter Neal}, year={2017}, month=June, pages={314–329} }
	384	+
	385	+@article{peregrine2019, title={Social Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses}, volume={10}, ISSN={1948-8335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, DOI={10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, number={1}, journal={Weather, Climate, and Society}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Peregrine, Peter N.}, year={2018}, month=Jan, pages={145–161} }
	386	+
	387	+@article{radner1993, title={The Organization of Decentralized Information Processing}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951495}, DOI={10.2307/2951495}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Radner, Roy}, year={1993}, month=Sept, pages={1109} }
	388	+
	389	+@article{richerson2016, title={Cultural group selection plays an essential role in explaining human cooperation: A sketch of the evidence}, volume={39}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Richerson, Peter and Baldini, Ryan and Bell, Adrian V. and Demps, Kathryn and Frost, Karl and Hillis, Vicken and Mathew, Sarah and Newton, Emily K. and Naar, Nicole and Newson, Lesley and Ross, Cody and Smaldino, Paul E. and Waring, Timothy M. and Zefferman, Matthew}, year={2014}, month=Oct }
	390	+
	391	+@article{rubinstein1989,
	392	+ author = {Rubinstein, Ariel},
	393	+ title = {The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under ``Almost Common Knowledge''},
	394	+ journal = {American Economic Review},
	395	+ volume = {79},
	396	+ number = {3},
	397	+ pages = {385--391},
	398	+ year = {1989}
	399	+}
	400	+
	401	+@article{samejima1969, title={Estimation of Latent Ability Using a Response Pattern of Graded Scores}, volume={34}, ISSN={1860-0980}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03372160}, DOI={10.1007/bf03372160}, number={S1}, journal={Psychometrika}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Samejima, Fumiko}, year={1969}, month=Mar, pages={1–97} }
	402	+
	403	+@book{scheidel2019, title={Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity}, ISBN={9780691198835}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={SCHEIDEL, WALTER}, year={2019}, month=Oct }
	404	+
	405	+@book{schelling1960,
	406	+ author = {Schelling, Thomas C.},
	407	+ title = {The Strategy of Conflict},
	408	+ publisher = {Harvard University Press},
	409	+ address = {Cambridge, MA},
	410	+ year = {1960}
	411	+}
	412	+
	413	+@book{scott1998,
	414	+ author = {Scott, James C.},
	415	+ title = {Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed},
	416	+ publisher = {Yale University Press},
	417	+ address = {New Haven},
	418	+ year = {1998}
	419	+}
	420	+
	421	+@book{scott2017, title={Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States}, ISBN={9780300182910}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, publisher={Yale University Press}, author={SCOTT, JAMES C.}, year={2017}, month=Aug }
	422	+
	423	+@article{segal2007, title={The communication requirements of social choice rules and supporting budget sets}, volume={136}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Segal, Ilya}, year={2007}, month=Sept, pages={341–378} }
	424	+
	425	+@misc{seshat2026,
	426	+ author = {{Seshat: Global History Databank}},
	427	+ title = {Polaris-2026 data release (repository build\_polaris\_dataset, commit 55ca5fbc2b)},
	428	+ year = {2026},
	429	+ howpublished = {\url{https://seshatdatabank.info/data/}},
	430	+ note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
	431	+}
	432	+
	433	+@article{shannon1948, title={A Mathematical Theory of Communication}, volume={27}, ISSN={0005-8580}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, DOI={10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, number={3}, journal={Bell System Technical Journal}, publisher={Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)}, author={Shannon, C. E.}, year={1948}, month=July, pages={379–423} }
	434	+
	435	+@article{sheehan2018, title={Coevolution of landesque capital intensive agriculture and sociopolitical hierarchy}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, number={14}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Sheehan, Oliver and Watts, Joseph and Gray, Russell D. and Atkinson, Quentin D.}, year={2018}, month=Mar, pages={3628–3633} }
	436	+
	437	+@article{shin2020, title={Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution}, volume={11}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Shin, Jaeweon and Price, Michael Holton and Wolpert, David H. and Shimao, Hajime and Tracey, Brendan and Kohler, Timothy A.}, year={2020}, month=May }
	438	+
	439	+@article{simon1955, title={A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice}, volume={69}, ISSN={0033-5533}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884852}, DOI={10.2307/1884852}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Simon, Herbert A.}, year={1955}, month=Feb, pages={99} }
	440	+
	441	+@article{simon1962,
	442	+ author = {Simon, Herbert A.},
	443	+ title = {The Architecture of Complexity},
	444	+ journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society},
	445	+ volume = {106},
	446	+ number = {6},
	447	+ pages = {467--482},
	448	+ year = {1962}
	449	+}
	450	+
	451	+@book{skyrms2010, title={Signals: Evolution, Learning, and Information}, ISBN={9780191722769}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, DOI={10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, publisher={Oxford University PressOxford}, author={Skyrms, Brian}, year={2010}, month=Apr }
	452	+
	453	+@article{slingerland2020, title={Historians Respond to Whitehouse et al. (2019), “Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods Throughout World History”}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2amjz}, DOI={10.31234/osf.io/2amjz}, publisher={Center for Open Science}, author={Slingerland, Edward and Monroe, M. Willis and Spicer, Rachel and Muthukrishna, Michael}, year={2019}, month=May }
	454	+
	455	+@article{sng2014, title={Size and dynastic decline: The principal-agent problem in late imperial China, 1700–1850}, volume={54}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2014}, month=Oct, pages={107–127} }
	456	+
	457	+@article{soifer2008, title={State Infrastructural Power: Approaches to Conceptualization and Measurement}, volume={43}, ISSN={1936-6167}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, DOI={10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, number={3-4}, journal={Studies in Comparative International Development}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Soifer, Hillel}, year={2008}, month=Aug, pages={231–251} }
	458	+
	459	+@article{spencer2010, title={Territorial expansion and primary state formation}, volume={107}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, number={16}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Spencer, Charles S.}, year={2010}, month=Apr, pages={7119–7126} }
	460	+
	461	+@book{stanish2017, title={The Evolution of Human Co-operation: Ritual and Social Complexity in Stateless Societies}, ISBN={9781316632277}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316848128}, DOI={10.1017/9781316848128}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Stanish, Charles}, year={2017}, month=Aug }
	462	+
	463	+@article{stasavage2010, title={When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies}, volume={104}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055410000444}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055410000444}, number={4}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2010}, month=Nov, pages={625–643} }
	464	+
	465	+@book{stasavage2020, title={The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today}, ISBN={9780691201955}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Stasavage, David}, year={2020}, month=June }
	466	+
	467	+@book{tainter1988,
	468	+ author = {Tainter, Joseph A.},
	469	+ title = {The Collapse of Complex Societies},
	470	+ publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	471	+ address = {Cambridge},
	472	+ year = {1988}
	473	+}
	474	+
	475	+@book{tilly1992,
	476	+ author = {Tilly, Charles},
	477	+ title = {Coercion, Capital, and {E}uropean States, {AD} 990--1992},
	478	+ publisher = {Blackwell},
	479	+ address = {Oxford},
	480	+ year = {1992}
	481	+}
	482	+
	483	+@article{treier2008, title={Democracy as a Latent Variable}, volume={52}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Treier, Shawn and Jackman, Simon}, year={2008}, month=Jan, pages={201–217} }
	484	+
	485	+@book{trigger2003, title={Understanding Early Civilizations: A Comparative Study}, ISBN={9780511840630}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511840630}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511840630}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Trigger, Bruce G.}, year={2003}, month=May }
	486	+
	487	+@book{turchin2003, title={Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall: Why States Rise and Fall}, ISBN={9781400889310}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400889310}, DOI={10.1515/9781400889310}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Turchin, Peter}, year={2004}, month=Dec }
	488	+
	489	+@book{turchin2009, title={Secular Cycles}, ISBN={9781400830688}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400830688}, DOI={10.1515/9781400830688}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Turchin, Peter and Nefedov, Sergey A.}, year={2009}, month=Dec }
	490	+
	491	+@article{turchin2009gavrilets,
	492	+ author = {Turchin, Peter and Gavrilets, Sergey},
	493	+ title = {Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies},
	494	+ journal = {Social Evolution \& History},
	495	+ volume = {8},
	496	+ number = {2},
	497	+ pages = {167--198},
	498	+ year = {2009}
	499	+}
	500	+
	501	+@article{turchin2015, title={Seshat: The Global History Databank}, volume={6}, ISSN={2373-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.21237/C7clio6127917}, DOI={10.21237/c7clio6127917}, number={1}, journal={Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, publisher={California Digital Library (CDL)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Francois, Pieter and Hoyer, Daniel and Manning, Joseph and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Mullins, Daniel and Palmisano, Alessio and Peregrine, Peter and Turner, Edward A.L. and Whitehouse, Harvey}, year={2015}, month=June }
	502	+
	503	+@book{turchin2016,
	504	+ author = {Turchin, Peter},
	505	+ title = {Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth},
	506	+ publisher = {Beresta Books},
	507	+ address = {Chaplin, CT},
	508	+ year = {2016}
	509	+}
	510	+
	511	+@article{turchin2018, title={Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, number={2}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Turchin, Peter and Currie, Thomas E. and Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Feeney, Kevin and Mullins, Daniel and Hoyer, Daniel and Collins, Christina and Grohmann, Stephanie and Savage, Patrick and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Turner, Edward and Dupeyron, Agathe and Cioni, Enrico and Reddish, Jenny and Levine, Jill and Jordan, Greine and Brandl, Eva and Williams, Alice and Cesaretti, Rudolf and Krueger, Marta and Ceccarelli, Alessandro and Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe and Tuan, Po-Ju and Peregrine, Peter and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes and Kradin, Nikolay and Korotayev, Andrey and Palmisano, Alessio and Baker, David and Bidmead, Julye and Bol, Peter and Christian, David and Cook, Connie and Covey, Alan and Feinman, Gary and Júlíusson, Árni Daníel and Kristinsson, Axel and Miksic, John and Mostern, Ruth and Petrie, Cameron and Rudiak-Gould, Peter and ter Haar, Barend and Wallace, Vesna and Mair, Victor and Xie, Liye and Baines, John and Bridges, Elizabeth and Manning, Joseph and Lockhart, Bruce and Bogaard, Amy and Spencer, Charles}, year={2017}, month=Dec }
	512	+
	513	+@article{turchin2022, title={Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses}, volume={8}, ISSN={2375-2548}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517}, DOI={10.1126/sciadv.abn3517}, number={25}, journal={Science Advances}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Whitehouse, Harvey and Gavrilets, Sergey and Hoyer, Daniel and François, Pieter and Bennett, James S. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Peregrine, Peter and Feinman, Gary and Korotayev, Andrey and Kradin, Nikolay and Levine, Jill and Reddish, Jenny and Cioni, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Benam, Majid}, year={2022}, month=June }
	514	+
	515	+@book{turchin2023,
	516	+ author = {Turchin, Peter},
	517	+ title = {End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration},
	518	+ publisher = {Penguin Press},
	519	+ address = {New York},
	520	+ year = {2023}
	521	+}
	522	+
	523	+@article{vanzandt1999, title={Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing as a Model of Organizations with Boundedly Rational Agents}, volume={66}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00101}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00101}, number={3}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Van Zandt, Timothy}, year={1999}, month=July, pages={633–658} }
	524	+
	525	+@misc{vdem2026,
	526	+ author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and others},
	527	+ title = {V-Dem Country-Year Dataset v16},
	528	+ year = {2026},
	529	+ howpublished = {Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, \url{https://www.v-dem.net/}},
	530	+ note = {Obtained from the official vdemdata R package (commit f4dd26922e, 2026-03-17); accessed 2026-11-01}
	531	+}
	532	+
	533	+@article{watts1998, title={Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks}, volume={393}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/30918}, DOI={10.1038/30918}, number={6684}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Watts, Duncan J. and Strogatz, Steven H.}, year={1998}, month=June, pages={440–442} }
	534	+
	535	+@book{weber1922,
	536	+ author = {Weber, Max},
	537	+ title = {Economy and Society: An Outline of Interpretive Sociology},
	538	+ publisher = {University of California Press},
	539	+ address = {Berkeley},
	540	+ year = {1978},
	541	+ note = {Edited by G. Roth and C. Wittich; first published 1922}
	542	+}
	543	+
	544	+@article{whitehouse2019, title={RETRACTED ARTICLE: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history}, volume={568}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4}, number={7751}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Currie, Thomas E. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Ross, Robert M. and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and ter Haar, Barend and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2019}, month=Mar, pages={226–229} }
	545	+
	546	+@article{whitehouse2021retraction, title={Retraction Note: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history}, volume={595}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3}, number={7866}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Currie, Thomas E. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Ross, Robert M. and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and ter Haar, Barend and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2021}, month=July, pages={320–320} }
	547	+
	548	+@article{whitehouse2023, title={Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”}, volume={13}, ISSN={2153-5981}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2153599x.2022.2074085}, DOI={10.1080/2153599x.2022.2074085}, number={2}, journal={Religion, Brain \& Behavior}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Hoyer, Daniel and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and Haar, Barend ter and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2022}, month=June, pages={124–166} }
	549	+
	550	+@book{williamson1985,
	551	+ author = {Williamson, Oliver E.},
	552	+ title = {The Economic Institutions of Capitalism},
	553	+ publisher = {Free Press},
	554	+ address = {New York},
	555	+ year = {1985}
	556	+}
	557	+
	558	+@inbook{wolpert2017, title={The Many Faces of State Space Compression}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584200.010}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584200.010}, booktitle={From Matter to Life}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Wolpert, David and Libby, Eric and Grochow, Joshua A. and Dedeo, Simon}, year={2017}, month=Feb, pages={199–243} }
	559	+
	560	+@article{wright1975, title={Population, Exchange, and Early State Formation in Southwestern Iran}, volume={77}, ISSN={1548-1433}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020}, DOI={10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020}, number={2}, journal={American Anthropologist}, publisher={Wiley}, author={WRIGHT, HENRY T. and JOHNSON, GREGORY A.}, year={1975}, month=June, pages={267–289} }
	561	+
	562	+@inproceedings{yao1979, series={STOC ’79}, title={Some complexity questions related to distributive computing(Preliminary Report)}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/800135.804414}, DOI={10.1145/800135.804414}, booktitle={Proceedings of the eleventh annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing - STOC ’79}, publisher={ACM Press}, author={Yao, Andrew Chi-Chih}, year={1979}, pages={209–213}, collection={STOC ’79} }
	563	+
	564	+@book{yates1989,
	565	+ author = {Yates, JoAnne},
	566	+ title = {Control through Communication: The Rise of System in {A}merican Management},
	567	+ publisher = {Johns Hopkins University Press},
	568	+ address = {Baltimore},
	569	+ year = {1989}
	570	+}
	571	+
	572	+@book{yoffee2005, title={Myths of the Archaic State: Evolution of the Earliest Cities, States, and Civilizations}, ISBN={9780511489662}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511489662}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511489662}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Yoffee, Norman}, year={2005}, month=Jan }
	573	+
	574	+@article{young1993, title={The Evolution of Conventions}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951778}, DOI={10.2307/2951778}, number={1}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Young, H. Peyton}, year={1993}, month=Jan, pages={57} }

added paper/tables/tab_coverage.tex +9 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
	1	+Seshat Polaris-2026 polities & 626 & 42 regions / 10 macro-regions \\
	2	+Seshat facts (dated) & 56,274 (2,503) & unparsed 132, inferred 8,094 \\
	3	+Polities with population / territory / any D & 299 / 355 / 561 & \\
	4	+Polities with $\geq 50\%$ of K indicators & 376 & \\
	5	+CrisisDB records (polities) & 166 (150) & Y1 coded 166; Y1b coded 158, positive 122 \\
	6	+Y3 succession coded (discontinuous) & 207 (37) & polities censored at 1900: 30 \\
	7	+D-PLACE EA societies & 1291 & EA031 611, EA202 953, EA033 1155; 173 language families \\
	8	+Modern country-years (countries) & 28,092 (202) & 1789--2025; Maddison population 15,821 \\
	9	+Modern events & civil-war onsets 176 / 13,608 & coups 599 / 13,813; irregular regime ends 1041 / 27,846 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h1_ea.tex +5 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
	1	+H1-E1 OLS log community size ~ hierarchy + X + region, Conley 500 km & hier & 0.702$^{***}$ & 0.089 & 579 & 0.75 \\
	2	+H1-E1 OLS log community size ~ hierarchy + X + region, Conley 1000 km & hier & 0.702$^{***}$ & 0.103 & 579 & 0.75 \\
	3	+H1-E2 same, SE clustered by language family & hier & 0.702$^{***}$ & 0.123 & 579 & 0.75 \\
	4	+H1-E3 log population (EA202) ~ hierarchy + X + region, family-clustered & hier & 0.587$^{***}$ & 0.107 & 799 & 0.67 \\
	5	+H1-E4 ordered logit hierarchy ~ log community size + X + region (family-clustered) & log\_community\_size & 0.489$^{***}$ & 0.116 & 579 & -- \\

added paper/tables/tab_h1_modern.tex +3 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
	1	+H1-M1 within-country: log pop ~ K + log gdppc + polyarchy + year FE & K\_modern\_dm & 0.148$^{**}$ & 0.062 & 14647 & 0.65 \\
	2	+H1-M2 pooled: log pop ~ K + log gdppc + polyarchy + year FE + region FE & K\_modern & 0.188 & 0.240 & 14647 & 0.23 \\
	3	+H1-M3 50-year differences: $\Delta$log pop ~ $\Delta$K + $\Delta$log gdppc + $\Delta$polyarchy + year FE & dK\_modern & 0.135$^{**}$ & 0.053 & 6836 & 0.17 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h1_seshat.tex +11 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
	1	+H1-S1 primary: D\_pc1 ~ K\_mean + FE & K\_mean & 2.356$^{***}$ & 0.173 & 317 & 0.73 \\
	2	+H1-S2: D\_pc1 ~ K\_mean + X + FE & K\_mean & 1.214$^{***}$ & 0.432 & 191 & 0.83 \\
	3	+H1-S3: log\_pop ~ K\_mean + X + FE & K\_mean & 3.482$^{*}$ & 1.934 & 146 & 0.80 \\
	4	+H1-S4: log\_terr ~ K\_mean + X + FE & K\_mean & 2.103 & 2.376 & 158 & 0.60 \\
	5	+H1-S5: D\_pc1 ~ K\_irt + X + FE & K\_irt & 0.366$^{***}$ & 0.094 & 208 & 0.81 \\
	6	+H1-S6: D\_pc1 ~ K blocks + X + FE & K\_admin & 0.148 & 0.335 & 164 & 0.86 \\
	7	+H1-S6: D\_pc1 ~ K blocks + X + FE & K\_rules\_money & -0.290 & 0.294 & 164 & 0.86 \\
	8	+H1-S6: D\_pc1 ~ K blocks + X + FE & K\_comm\_infra & 1.085$^{***}$ & 0.350 & 164 & 0.86 \\
	9	+H1-S6: D\_pc1 ~ K blocks + X + FE & K\_records & 0.220 & 0.253 & 164 & 0.86 \\
	10	+H1-S7: D\_pc1 ~ K\_mean + X + FE, no quasi-polities & K\_mean & 1.360$^{**}$ & 0.530 & 155 & 0.79 \\
	11	+H1-S8: D\_pc1 ~ K\_mean + era, region random intercept & K\_mean & 2.180$^{***}$ & 0.126 & 317 & -- \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_modern.tex +15 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
	1	+C1 primary: Y456 ~ P + X + region FE + year FE & P\_modern\_z & 0.398$^{***}$ & 0.089 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	2	+C2: Y456 ~ P + FE only & P\_modern\_z & 0.723$^{***}$ & 0.080 & 15687 & 2981.00 \\
	3	+C3: Y456 ~ P + K + X + FE (P given K) & P\_modern\_z & 0.229$^{**}$ & 0.094 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	4	+B1 baseline population only & D\_modern\_z & 0.126$^{*}$ & 0.071 & 14754 & 2710.00 \\
	5	+B2 baseline capacity only & K\_modern\_z & -0.632$^{***}$ & 0.126 & 15675 & 2957.00 \\
	6	+B3 baseline development (gdppc) only & log\_gdppc & -0.557$^{***}$ & 0.095 & 15862 & 2980.00 \\
	7	+B4 baseline persistence & y456\_b5 & 0.136 & 0.133 & 15806 & 2968.00 \\
	8	+B5 D and K separately & D\_modern\_z & 0.170$^{**}$ & 0.070 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	9	+B5 D and K separately & K\_modern\_z & -0.707$^{***}$ & 0.137 & 14637 & -- \\
	10	+Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled) & P\_placebo\_z & 0.197$^{***}$ & 0.059 & 14754 & 2710.00 \\
	11	+Placebo comparison: P\_main with the same controls as the placebo & P\_modern\_z & 0.446$^{***}$ & 0.083 & 14676 & 2706.00 \\
	12	+Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) ~ P\_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms) & P\_modern\_z & 0.436$^{***}$ & 0.098 & 14608 & 2757.00 \\
	13	+Forward comparison for the negative control: future events ~ P\_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE & P\_modern\_z & 0.475$^{***}$ & 0.099 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	14	+C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE & P\_modern\_z & 1.314$^{***}$ & 0.098 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	15	+C5: linear probability, country + year FE & P\_modern\_z\_dm & 0.111$^{***}$ & 0.031 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_modern_cv.tex +20 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
	1	+B0 FE+X & forward & oos\_loglik & 2 & 0.50 & -0.0002 \\
	2	+B0 FE+X & forward & auc & 2 & 1.00 & +0.0047 \\
	3	+B1 D & forward & oos\_loglik & 2 & 0.50 & +0.0002 \\
	4	+B1 D & forward & auc & 2 & 1.00 & +0.0044 \\
	5	+B2 K & forward & oos\_loglik & 2 & 0.00 & -0.0029 \\
	6	+B2 K & forward & auc & 2 & 0.00 & -0.0041 \\
	7	+B4 persistence & forward & oos\_loglik & 2 & 1.00 & +0.0016 \\
	8	+B4 persistence & forward & auc & 2 & 1.00 & +0.0096 \\
	9	+B5 D+K & forward & oos\_loglik & 2 & 0.00 & -0.0019 \\
	10	+B5 D+K & forward & auc & 2 & 0.00 & -0.0059 \\
	11	+B0 FE+X & loro & oos\_loglik & 6 & 0.83 & -0.0004 \\
	12	+B0 FE+X & loro & auc & 6 & 0.83 & +0.0077 \\
	13	+B1 D & loro & oos\_loglik & 6 & 0.83 & +0.0007 \\
	14	+B1 D & loro & auc & 6 & 1.00 & +0.0074 \\
	15	+B2 K & loro & oos\_loglik & 6 & 0.17 & -0.0093 \\
	16	+B2 K & loro & auc & 6 & 0.50 & +0.0018 \\
	17	+B4 persistence & loro & oos\_loglik & 6 & 0.83 & -0.0008 \\
	18	+B4 persistence & loro & auc & 6 & 0.67 & +0.0075 \\
	19	+B5 D+K & loro & oos\_loglik & 6 & 0.17 & -0.0084 \\
	20	+B5 D+K & loro & auc & 6 & 0.50 & -0.0012 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_modern_cv_summary.tex +12 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
	1	+forward & B0 FE+X & -0.334 & 0.768 & 0.102 & 0.97 \\
	2	+forward & B1 D & -0.334 & 0.769 & 0.103 & 0.96 \\
	3	+forward & B2 K & -0.331 & 0.777 & 0.101 & 0.99 \\
	4	+forward & B4 persistence & -0.336 & 0.763 & 0.103 & 0.95 \\
	5	+forward & B5 D+K & -0.332 & 0.779 & 0.102 & 0.97 \\
	6	+forward & C1 P & -0.334 & 0.773 & 0.103 & 0.95 \\
	7	+loro & B0 FE+X & -0.518 & 0.674 & 0.142 & 0.44 \\
	8	+loro & B1 D & -0.519 & 0.674 & 0.142 & 0.44 \\
	9	+loro & B2 K & -0.509 & 0.680 & 0.139 & 0.43 \\
	10	+loro & B4 persistence & -0.517 & 0.674 & 0.141 & 0.44 \\
	11	+loro & B5 D+K & -0.510 & 0.683 & 0.140 & 0.43 \\
	12	+loro & C1 P & -0.518 & 0.681 & 0.142 & 0.44 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_modern_robust.tex +12 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
	1	+R: horizon h=1 & P\_modern\_z & 0.326$^{***}$ & 0.091 & 14635 & 902.00 \\
	2	+R: horizon h=3 & P\_modern\_z & 0.386$^{***}$ & 0.087 & 14636 & 1911.00 \\
	3	+R: horizon h=10 & P\_modern\_z & 0.453$^{***}$ & 0.101 & 14639 & 4143.00 \\
	4	+R: component y4\_f5 & P\_modern\_z & 1.011$^{***}$ & 0.197 & 10279 & 566.00 \\
	5	+R: component y5\_f5 & P\_modern\_z & 0.196 & 0.137 & 10853 & 1460.00 \\
	6	+R: component y6\_f5 & P\_modern\_z & 0.245$^{***}$ & 0.094 & 14636 & 2068.00 \\
	7	+R: K = PC1 & P\_modern\_pc1\_z & 0.397$^{***}$ & 0.090 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	8	+R: standardized within year & P\_modern\_within\_year\_z & 0.409$^{***}$ & 0.091 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
	9	+R: D = (log pop + log area)/2 & P\_modern\_area\_z & 0.352$^{***}$ & 0.098 & 11735 & 2359.00 \\
	10	+R: years $\geq$ 1900 & P\_modern\_z & 0.394$^{***}$ & 0.092 & 13083 & 2475.00 \\
	11	+R: polyarchy not controlled & P\_modern\_z & 0.446$^{***}$ & 0.083 & 14676 & 2706.00 \\
	12	+R: + persistence control & P\_modern\_z & 0.390$^{***}$ & 0.089 & 14598 & 2682.00 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_seshat.tex +14 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
	1	+A1 primary: Y1 ~ P + FE & P\_main\_z & 0.196$^{***}$ & 0.056 & 127 \\
	2	+A2: Y1 ~ P + X + FE & P\_main\_z & 0.204$^{**}$ & 0.085 & 87 \\
	3	+A3: Y1 ~ P + D + K + X + FE (P given components) & P\_main\_z & 0.204$^{**}$ & 0.083 & 87 \\
	4	+B1 baseline D only & D\_pc1\_z & 0.257$^{*}$ & 0.138 & 94 \\
	5	+B2 baseline K only & K\_mean\_z & -0.034 & 0.195 & 93 \\
	6	+B3 baseline complexity PC1 & complexity\_pc1\_z & -0.010 & 0.240 & 100 \\
	7	+B4 baseline persistence & prior\_crisis\_nga & 0.345 & 0.242 & 100 \\
	8	+B5 D and K separately & D\_pc1\_z & 0.341$^{**}$ & 0.164 & 87 \\
	9	+B5 D and K separately & K\_mean\_z & -0.213 & 0.193 & 87 \\
	10	+Placebo: P built with production infrastructure instead of K & P\_placebo & 0.257$^{*}$ & 0.138 & 94 \\
	11	+A1b: Y1b ~ P + region FE (logit, HC1; era FE dropped: separation) & P\_main\_z & -0.178 & 0.203 & 123 \\
	12	+A2b: Y1b ~ P + X + region FE (logit, HC1) & P\_main\_z & 0.184 & 0.324 & 86 \\
	13	+A3b: Y1b ~ P (logit, HC1, no FE) & P\_main\_z & -0.068 & 0.180 & 123 \\
	14	+Exploratory: reform consequences ~ P + X + FE & P\_main\_z & -0.015 & 0.181 & 86 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_seshat_cv.tex +12 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
	1	+B0 FE only & loro & 10 & 0.80 & +0.0104 \\
	2	+B1 D only & loro & 10 & 0.30 & -0.0027 \\
	3	+B2 K only & loro & 10 & 0.70 & +0.0104 \\
	4	+B3 complexity & loro & 10 & 0.80 & +0.0109 \\
	5	+B4 persistence & loro & 10 & 0.70 & +0.0030 \\
	6	+B5 D+K & loro & 10 & 0.20 & -0.0028 \\
	7	+B0 FE only & kfold & 48 & 0.79 & +0.0036 \\
	8	+B1 D only & kfold & 48 & 0.75 & +0.0018 \\
	9	+B2 K only & kfold & 48 & 0.81 & +0.0050 \\
	10	+B3 complexity & kfold & 48 & 0.85 & +0.0051 \\
	11	+B4 persistence & kfold & 48 & 0.69 & +0.0019 \\
	12	+B5 D+K & kfold & 48 & 0.75 & +0.0018 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_seshat_cv_binary.tex +7 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
	1	+A2 P & -1.350 & 0.633 & 0.258 \\
	2	+B0 FE only & -1.278 & 0.641 & 0.249 \\
	3	+B1 D only & -1.339 & 0.634 & 0.257 \\
	4	+B2 K only & -1.318 & 0.630 & 0.259 \\
	5	+B3 complexity & -1.322 & 0.629 & 0.261 \\
	6	+B4 persistence & -1.341 & 0.624 & 0.263 \\
	7	+B5 D+K & -1.396 & 0.621 & 0.268 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_seshat_robust.tex +11 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
	1	+R: K = IRT latent & \_P & 0.146$^{*}$ & 0.088 & 94 \\
	2	+R: D = log population only & \_P & 0.265$^{**}$ & 0.105 & 70 \\
	3	+R: K = PC1 of blocks & \_P & 0.206$^{**}$ & 0.084 & 87 \\
	4	+R: quasi-polities dropped & P\_main\_z & 0.153 & 0.107 & 83 \\
	5	+R: crises starting $\geq$25 years after polity start & P\_main\_z & 0.250$^{***}$ & 0.091 & 76 \\
	6	+R: $\geq$12 of 14 items coded & P\_main\_z & 0.184$^{**}$ & 0.091 & 84 \\
	7	+R: no era FE & P\_main\_z & 0.252$^{**}$ & 0.105 & 87 \\
	8	+R: no region FE & P\_main\_z & 0.232$^{***}$ & 0.084 & 87 \\
	9	+R: no FE & P\_main\_z & 0.240$^{**}$ & 0.097 & 87 \\
	10	+R: SE clustered by NGA & P\_main\_z & 0.204$^{**}$ & 0.085 & 87 \\
	11	+R: SE clustered by polity & P\_main\_z & 0.204$^{**}$ & 0.096 & 87 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h2_seshat_y2y3.tex +7 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
	1	+Y2-1 Cox: P + strata(macro-region) & P\_z & 0.031 & 0.060 & 317 & 1.03 & 302 \\
	2	+Y2-2 Cox: P + X + midpoint + strata & P\_z & 0.000 & 0.068 & 208 & 1.00 & 201 \\
	3	+Y2-3 Cox: D + K + X + midpoint + strata & D\_pc1\_z & 0.128 & 0.133 & 208 & 1.14 & 201 \\
	4	+Y2-3 Cox: D + K + X + midpoint + strata & K\_mean\_z & 0.559$^{***}$ & 0.200 & 208 & 1.75 & 201 \\
	5	+Y2-4 Cox: complexity PC1 + X + strata & complexity\_pc1\_z & 0.399 & 0.291 & 208 & 1.49 & 201 \\
	6	+Y3-1 logit: discontinuous succession ~ P + FE & P\_z & 0.018 & 0.393 & 145 & -- & 24 \\
	7	+Y3-2 logit: + X & P\_z & 0.239 & 0.325 & 117 & -- & 18 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h4.tex +2 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
	1	+Seshat Y1 (10$\times$5-fold) & 48 & 0.10 & 0.08 & -0.6036 & -0.6092 & -0.6058 \\
	2	+Modern Y456 (3$\times$5 country-blocked folds) & 15 & 0.80 & 0.87 & -0.4096 & -0.4087 & -0.4064 \\

added paper/tables/tab_h5_modern_blocks.tex +10 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
	1	+leave-region-out: 1.0 & 0.293$^{***}$ & 0.094 & 13252 & 1385 & 1.067 (0.432) \\
	2	+leave-region-out: 2.0 & 0.328$^{***}$ & 0.099 & 12017 & 2620 & 0.542 (0.292) \\
	3	+leave-region-out: 3.0 & 0.303$^{***}$ & 0.097 & 13175 & 1462 & 0.449 (0.350) \\
	4	+leave-region-out: 4.0 & 0.312$^{***}$ & 0.117 & 11363 & 3274 & 0.391 (0.167) \\
	5	+leave-region-out: 5.0 & 0.294$^{***}$ & 0.097 & 10717 & 3920 & 0.781 (0.285) \\
	6	+leave-region-out: 6.0 & 0.470$^{***}$ & 0.093 & 12661 & 1976 & 0.234 (0.206) \\
	7	+leave-period-out: 1900-1945 & 0.415$^{***}$ & 0.099 & 12616 & 2021 & 0.298 (0.187) \\
	8	+leave-period-out: 1946-1989 & 0.361$^{***}$ & 0.113 & 8927 & 5710 & 0.435 (0.122) \\
	9	+leave-period-out: 1990+ & 0.417$^{***}$ & 0.106 & 9285 & 5352 & 0.348 (0.161) \\
	10	+leave-period-out: pre-1900 & 0.394$^{***}$ & 0.092 & 13083 & 1554 & 0.665 (0.277) \\

added paper/tables/tab_h5_seshat_blocks.tex +16 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
	1	+leave-region-out: Central\_Asia & 0.225$^{***}$ & 0.086 & 84 & 13 & -- \\
	2	+leave-region-out: East\_Asia & 0.229$^{**}$ & 0.107 & 64 & 30 & 0.189 (0.180) \\
	3	+leave-region-out: Europe & 0.327$^{***}$ & 0.124 & 72 & 39 & 0.196 (0.161) \\
	4	+leave-region-out: North\_Africa & 0.230$^{***}$ & 0.082 & 78 & 12 & -- \\
	5	+leave-region-out: North\_America & 0.210$^{**}$ & 0.090 & 85 & 13 & -- \\
	6	+leave-region-out: South\_America & 0.261$^{***}$ & 0.089 & 84 & 6 & -- \\
	7	+leave-region-out: South\_Asia & 0.225$^{***}$ & 0.084 & 82 & 5 & -- \\
	8	+leave-region-out: Southeast\_Asia\_Oceania & 0.214$^{**}$ & 0.093 & 81 & 13 & -- \\
	9	+leave-region-out: Southwest\_Asia & 0.235$^{***}$ & 0.090 & 70 & 29 & 0.437 (0.234) \\
	10	+leave-region-out: Sub\_Saharan\_Africa & 0.177$^{***}$ & 0.061 & 83 & 6 & -- \\
	11	+leave-era-out: 1-1000 & 0.319$^{**}$ & 0.137 & 66 & 40 & 0.127 (0.177) \\
	12	+leave-era-out: 1000BCE-0 & 0.204 & 0.174 & 69 & 28 & 0.340 (0.081) \\
	13	+leave-era-out: 1001-1500 & 0.263$^{***}$ & 0.100 & 65 & 43 & 0.205 (0.091) \\
	14	+leave-era-out: 1501-1800 & 0.224$^{***}$ & 0.073 & 73 & 31 & 0.300 (0.524) \\
	15	+leave-era-out: post-1800 & 0.224$^{**}$ & 0.108 & 81 & 16 & 0.279 (0.157) \\
	16	+leave-era-out: pre-1000BCE & 0.242$^{**}$ & 0.107 & 81 & 8 & -- \\

added paper/tables/tab_measurement.tex +7 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
	1	+D: PC1 of log population, log territory, log largest settlement, settlement hierarchy & variance share 0.821; loadings log_pop 0.26, log_terr 0.24, log_cap 0.26, settl_hier 0.24; $n=442$ \\
	2	+K: mean of four blocks (admin, rules/money, communication, records) & inter-block corr. 0.75--0.79; PC1 share 0.824; $n=344$ \\
	3	+K (2PL IRT, 30 items, MAP) & corr. with block mean 0.963; posterior SD median 0.34; $n=579$ \\
	4	+corr$(z(D), z(K))$ & 0.838 (IRT: 0.800) \\
	5	+P = $z(D)-z(K)$ & variance share of $z(D)+z(K)$ retained 0.166; corr. with D 0.39, with K -0.18, with complexity PC1 -0.04; $n=317$ polities, 127 crisis records \\
	6	+IRT invariance (Old World vs Americas/Oceania fits) & difficulty correlation 0.88 over 30 items \\
	7	+Modern K (6 V-Dem items) & PC1 share 0.605; corr$(D,K)$ 0.062; corr$(K,\text{polyarchy})$ 0.754; $n=15,697$ \\

added paper/tables/tab_power.tex +13 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
	1	+Y1b binary & 0.20 & 0.19 & 127 \\
	2	+Y1b binary & 0.30 & 0.31 & 127 \\
	3	+Y1b binary & 0.40 & 0.47 & 127 \\
	4	+Y1b binary & 0.50 & 0.62 & 127 \\
	5	+Y1b binary & 0.60 & 0.79 & 127 \\
	6	+Y1b binary & 0.80 & 0.94 & 127 \\
	7	+Y1b binary & 1.00 & 0.99 & 127 \\
	8	+Y1 fractional & 0.10 & 0.49 & 127 \\
	9	+Y1 fractional & 0.15 & 0.81 & 127 \\
	10	+Y1 fractional & 0.20 & 0.96 & 127 \\
	11	+Y1 fractional & 0.30 & 1.00 & 127 \\
	12	+Y1 fractional & 0.40 & 1.00 & 127 \\
	13	+Y1 fractional & 0.50 & 1.00 & 127 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sensitivity.tex +6 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
	1	+LPM $\beta_P$ with controls & 0.0383 \\
	2	+LPM $\beta_P$ without controls & 0.0819 \\
	3	+$R^2$ with / without controls & 0.161 / 0.127 \\
	4	+Oster bias-adjusted $\beta_P$ ($R_{\max}=1.3R^2$, $\delta=1$) & -0.0238 \\
	5	+Partial $R^2$ of $P$ & 0.0056 \\
	6	+Cinelli--Hazlett robustness value $RV_{q=1}$ & 0.072 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sim_ablation.tex +8 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
	1	+Reference (N=200, lattice, no shock): success / bits per success / welfare per agent & central: 1.000 / 28.1 / 44.4; federated: 1.000 / 28.1 / 44.4; none: 0.918 / 15.3 / 55.0; norms: 0.960 / 23.7 / 57.3; records: 1.000 / 24.8 / 59.3 \\
	2	+Records without verification & success 0.960, bits per success 25.8, welfare 57.2 \\
	3	+Norms, extra bits per task after a distribution shock by adaptation delay & delay 0: +0.03; delay 10: +1.92; delay 1000: +3.79 (KL $= 1.98$ bits) \\
	4	+Break-even (norms cheaper than none incl. set-up) & s=16,zipf=0.0,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=0.0,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=0.5,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=10,learn=0.0: yes; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=10,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=10,learn=1000.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=40,learn=0.0: yes; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=40,learn=1000.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=160,learn=0.0: yes; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=160,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.0,T=160,learn=1000.0: no; s=64,zipf=1.5,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=64,zipf=2.5,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=256,zipf=0.0,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=256,zipf=1.5,T=10,learn=200.0: no; s=256,zipf=1.5,T=10,learn=1000.0: no; s=256,zipf=1.5,T=40,learn=200.0: no; s=256,zipf=1.5,T=40,learn=1000.0: no; s=256,zipf=1.5,T=160,learn=200.0: yes; s=256,zipf=1.5,T=160,learn=1000.0: no \\
	5	+Heterogeneity $\epsilon$: success none vs norms & eps=0.05,none: 0.984; eps=0.05,norms: 0.960; eps=0.25,none: 0.918; eps=0.25,norms: 0.960; eps=0.6,none: 0.808; eps=0.6,norms: 0.960 \\
	6	+Federated branching $b$: success / messages per task / root load & b=4: 1.00 / 8.86 / 48; b=8: 1.00 / 6.61 / 42; b=16: 1.00 / 6.27 / 208 \\
	7	+Coding gain (norms): $H(p)$, $L_{code}$, $L_{raw}$ & s=16,zipf=0.0: 4.00, 4.00, 4; s=64,zipf=0.0: 6.00, 6.00, 6; s=64,zipf=0.5: 5.78, 6.24, 6; s=64,zipf=1.0: 4.86, 5.44, 6; s=64,zipf=1.5: 3.44, 4.00, 6; s=64,zipf=2.5: 1.45, 1.96, 6; s=256,zipf=0.0: 8.00, 8.00, 8; s=256,zipf=1.5: 3.92, 4.44, 8 \\
	8	+Theorem checks & T1 ($H\le L<H+1$): True; code shorter than raw whenever $H\le\log_2 s-1$: True; T3 extra bits per recipient 1.90 vs KL 1.98 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sim_capacity.tex +14 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
	1	+central & 0.25 & 0.011 & 0.989 & 1.50 & 4261 \\
	2	+central & 0.50 & 0.080 & 0.920 & 2.57 & 2311 \\
	3	+central & 0.75 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.99 & 418 \\
	4	+central & 1.00 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.01 & 302 \\
	5	+central & 1.50 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 302 \\
	6	+central & 2.00 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 302 \\
	7	+central & 4.00 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 302 \\
	8	+federated & 0.25 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\
	9	+federated & 0.50 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\
	10	+federated & 0.75 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\
	11	+federated & 1.00 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\
	12	+federated & 1.50 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\
	13	+federated & 2.00 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\
	14	+federated & 4.00 & 1.000 & 0.000 & 1.00 & 42 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sim_loss.tex +6 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
	1	+central & 0.5 & 108 & 1.00 & 1.00 & 1.00 \\
	2	+central & 2.0 & 108 & 0.50 & 0.50 & 0.00 \\
	3	+federated & 0.5 & 108 & 0.56 & 0.56 & 0.22 \\
	4	+federated & 2.0 & 108 & 0.50 & 0.50 & 0.00 \\
	5	+norms & 2.0 & 108 & 0.06 & 1.00 & 0.00 \\
	6	+records & 2.0 & 108 & 0.00 & 0.50 & 0.00 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sim_paired.tex +6 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
	1	+norms & 2.0 & 864 & 1.00 & 0.00 & 0.99 & 0.90 & -5.5 & +0.032 & +1.5 \\
	2	+records & 2.0 & 864 & 0.71 & 0.50 & 1.00 & 1.00 & -43.6 & +0.434 & +25.7 \\
	3	+central & 0.5 & 864 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.01 & 0.00 & +145.9 & -0.442 & -28.0 \\
	4	+central & 2.0 & 864 & 0.72 & 0.50 & 1.00 & 0.50 & -43.1 & +0.414 & +11.6 \\
	5	+federated & 0.5 & 864 & 0.61 & 0.44 & 0.83 & 0.47 & -28.6 & +0.272 & +4.7 \\
	6	+federated & 2.0 & 864 & 0.72 & 0.50 & 1.00 & 0.50 & -43.1 & +0.414 & +11.6 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sim_scaling.tex +15 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
	1	+central & 50 & 0.939 & 8.00 & 15.5 & 30.1 & 45.0 & 0.145 \\
	2	+central & 200 & 0.936 & 12.00 & 15.5 & 31.1 & 41.3 & 0.157 \\
	3	+central & 800 & 0.937 & 16.00 & 15.5 & 31.2 & 41.2 & 0.158 \\
	4	+federated & 50 & 0.939 & 6.81 & 15.5 & 30.1 & 45.0 & 0.145 \\
	5	+federated & 200 & 0.936 & 8.06 & 15.5 & 31.1 & 41.3 & 0.157 \\
	6	+federated & 800 & 0.937 & 9.34 & 15.5 & 31.2 & 41.2 & 0.158 \\
	7	+none & 50 & 0.520 & 4.00 & 14.0 & 62.4 & 30.7 & 0.224 \\
	8	+none & 200 & 0.524 & 4.00 & 14.0 & 59.1 & 31.0 & 0.224 \\
	9	+none & 800 & 0.525 & 4.00 & 14.0 & 58.1 & 30.9 & 0.222 \\
	10	+norms & 50 & 0.552 & 4.00 & 13.5 & 98.4 & 32.3 & 0.222 \\
	11	+norms & 200 & 0.555 & 4.00 & 13.5 & 93.1 & 32.5 & 0.220 \\
	12	+norms & 800 & 0.556 & 4.00 & 13.5 & 92.0 & 32.3 & 0.219 \\
	13	+records & 50 & 0.957 & 2.00 & 15.5 & 26.8 & 56.5 & 0.133 \\
	14	+records & 200 & 0.957 & 2.00 & 15.5 & 26.8 & 56.6 & 0.134 \\
	15	+records & 800 & 0.958 & 2.00 & 15.5 & 26.8 & 56.5 & 0.134 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sim_shocks.tex +14 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
	1	+distribution & central & 0.5 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.523 & 0.515 \\
	2	+distribution & central & 2.0 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.523 & 0.515 \\
	3	+distribution & federated & 0.5 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.523 & 0.515 \\
	4	+distribution & federated & 2.0 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.523 & 0.515 \\
	5	+distribution & none & 2.0 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.000 & 0.515 \\
	6	+distribution & norms & 2.0 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.515 & 0.515 \\
	7	+distribution & records & 2.0 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.524 & 0.515 \\
	8	+network & central & 0.5 & +0.000 (0.000) & +0.012 & 0.000 \\
	9	+network & central & 2.0 & -0.076 (0.006) & +0.012 & 0.000 \\
	10	+network & federated & 0.5 & -0.080 (0.012) & +0.012 & 0.000 \\
	11	+network & federated & 2.0 & -0.076 (0.006) & +0.012 & 0.000 \\
	12	+network & none & 2.0 & -0.004 (0.001) & +0.000 & 0.000 \\
	13	+network & norms & 2.0 & -0.004 (0.001) & +0.001 & 0.000 \\
	14	+network & records & 2.0 & -0.070 (0.005) & -0.003 & 0.000 \\

added paper/tables/tab_sources.tex +9 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
	1	+Seshat Global History Databank — Polaris-2026 snapshot & Polaris-2026 (repository commit 55ca5fbc2b, 2026 & MIT (repository LICENSE, Copyright (c) 2 & 2,899,093 & \texttt{cf60c9f76eed} \\
	2	+Seshat Global History Databank — Equinox-2020 snapshot (spre & Equinox-2020, spreadsheet dated 05.2023 (reposit & MIT (repository LICENSE); original Equin & 1,720,038 & \texttt{7964d74c3ae3} \\
	3	+Seshat Databank: Equinox Release with Culturally and Institu & Zenodo 8120128 (2023-07-06) & CC-BY-4.0 & 70,197 & \texttt{4eb6c1a72de9} \\
	4	+Maddison Project Database 2023 & MPD 2023 (Bolt \& van Zanden 2024) & Free for academic use with citation (GGD & 4,903,804 & \texttt{ecc5916ca127} \\
	5	+Maddison Project Database 2023 (Stata file) & MPD 2023 & Free for academic use with citation & 10,892,389 & \texttt{2bc62ccbd795} \\
	6	+D-PLACE dataset derived from Murdock et al. 1999 'Ethnograph & v3.3 (2025-12-19) & CC BY-NC 4.0 & 7,039,773 & \texttt{9ec031e01101} \\
	7	+V-Dem Country-Year Dataset v16 (vdemdata R package copy) & v16 (package commit f4dd26922e, 2026-03-17 'v16 & V-Dem data: free for non-commercial use & 33,878,255 & \texttt{39b412d39a06} \\
	8	+V-Dem codebook (R object) & v16 & GPL-3 (package) & 148,633 & \texttt{2840d879cb90} \\
	9	+Glottolog CLDF languages table (language family for Galton c & glottolog-cldf v5.3 (2026-03-02) & CC BY 4.0 & 2,477,017 & \texttt{1a50a393bc81} \\

added research/bib_build_log.csv +183 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
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	4	+alberti2014,crossref:10.1371/journal.pone.0091510
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	60	+fernandezvillaverde2023,crossref:10.1093/qje/qjad003
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	68	+gavrilets2008,crossref:10.1371/journal.pone.0003293
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	116	+miranda2020,crossref:10.1371/journal.pone.0232609
	117	+mokyr2016,crossref:10.1515/9781400882915
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	122	+naroll1956,crossref:10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080
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	125	+north1991,crossref:10.1257/jep.5.1.97
	126	+nosek2018,crossref:10.1073/pnas.1708274114
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	132	+pemstein2018,crossref:10.2139/ssrn.3167764
	133	+peregrine2017,crossref:10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013
	134	+peregrine2019,crossref:10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1
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modified research/bib_overrides.csv +1 −0

		@@ -49,3 +49,4 @@ hoyer2024|10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd|Hoyer et al. 2024 SocArXiv preprint 'All crises
49	49	wolpert2017|10.1017/9781316584200.010|Wolpert 2017 'The many faces of state space compression' (same volume)
50	50	lindley1952|10.1017/s0305004100027638|Lindley 1952 Math. Proc. Cambridge Phil. Soc. 48 — verified by Crossref (used in framework.md Theorem 5)
51	51	loynes1962|10.1017/s0305004100036781|Loynes 1962 Math. Proc. Cambridge Phil. Soc. 58 — verified by Crossref
	52	+rubinstein1989|manual|AER 79(3) 385-391, JSTOR 1806851 (no DOI registered)

added research/integration.md +57 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
	1	+# WP35 — Phase 6: theory-to-data integration
	2	+
	3	+Numbers quoted here are copied from `results/empirical/*.csv|json` and `results/simulated/simulation_summary.json`.
	4	+
	5	+## 1. Which mechanisms are observable in the historical record, and which are not
	6	+
	7	+| Mechanism (framework) | Observable in Seshat / V-Dem? | Observable in the simulation? |
	8	+|---|---|---|
	9	+| Coding gain of shared codes (T1) | No: presence of writing, coins, legal codes is observed; message lengths are not | Yes: $H(p) \le L < H(p)+1$ holds in every cell; code longer than raw in one weakly-concentrated cell |
	10	+| Break-even scale of institutions (T2) | Only indirectly: H1 (capacity rises with scale) | Yes: a 200-bit learning cost is repaid only with $s=256$, Zipf 1.5 and $T=160$ |
	11	+| Stale-code penalty after shocks (T3) | No: no measure of task distributions or of code adaptation | Yes: extra bits per recipient 1.90 vs $D_{KL}$ 1.98 (within ±1) |
	12	+| Routing and root load in hierarchies (T4) | Partially: administrative levels are coded, loads are not | Yes: central regimes fail when capacity ratio < 1; federated regimes keep 84% success at ratio 0.5 |
	13	+| Backlog dynamics / utilization (T5) | Not observed; $P$ is a proxy for $\log\rho$ only under C1 | Yes by construction (queue) |
	14	+| Sustained overload → breakdown (C2) | This is what H2 tests, through $P$ | Not modelled (no breakdown process) |
	15	+| Smooth vs threshold (C3) | H4: no threshold in Seshat; marginal, economically negligible nonlinearity in the modern panel | Convex latency in $\rho$ (T5) |
	16	+
	17	+## 2. The model against simpler rivals (EMPIRICAL)
	18	+- **Seshat crisis severity.** $\beta_P = 0.20$ (SE 0.06, n = 127) in the primary spec and 0.20 (SE 0.09, n = 87) with
	19	+ covariates; stable across leave-one-region-out (0.18–0.33) and leave-one-era-out (0.20–0.32). But the D-only baseline
	20	+ gives 0.26 (SE 0.14) and D and K entered separately give D = 0.34 (p = 0.04), K = −0.21 (p = 0.27): the capacity
	21	+ component has the predicted sign but is not distinguishable from zero. Out of sample, P beats the FE-only,
	22	+ K-only and complexity-PC1 baselines in ≥ 80% of 10×5 folds, but not the D-only (75%), persistence (69%) or D+K
	23	+ (75%) baselines, and it loses to D-only in 7 of 10 leave-one-region-out folds. The placebo index built from
	24	+ production infrastructure instead of K yields 0.26 (SE 0.14). **Verdict: the association is driven by scale; the
	25	+ mismatch adds nothing identifiable beyond population size.**
	26	+- **Seshat polity hazard and succession.** No association of P with polity duration (HR 1.00–1.03) or with discontinuous
	27	+ succession (p > 0.4). Higher K is associated with a *higher* hazard of polity end (HR 1.75, p = 0.005), which we read as
	28	+ a periodization artifact (complex polities are split into more, shorter Seshat polities).
	29	+- **Modern panel.** $\beta_P = 0.40$ (SE 0.09, n = 14,637, 2,692 events), stable across regions and periods, strongest
	30	+ for civil-war onsets (1.01) and weak for coups (0.20, n.s.). But K alone gives −0.63 (SE 0.13) and D alone 0.13
	31	+ (p = 0.08): the signal is capacity, not mismatch. Out of sample P never beats the K-only baseline (forward chaining 0/2
	32	+ on log-likelihood and AUC; leave-one-region-out 1/6). The reverse-window negative control (past events on current P)
	33	+ gives 0.44 vs 0.48 for future events: P marks chronically unstable countries. Oster-adjusted coefficient −0.02; RV = 0.07.
	34	+- **H1.** Capacity and scale are positively associated everywhere: Seshat 0.75 SD of D per SD of K (primary), 0.39 with
	35	+ rival covariates; EA 0.70 log units of community size per jurisdictional level (Conley SE 0.09–0.10); modern
	36	+ within-country 0.15 (p = 0.02) and 50-year differences 0.13 (p = 0.01), pooled n.s. (p = 0.43). Sign stable; direction
	37	+ not identified.
	38	+
	39	+## 3. Consistency of historical patterns with simulation-derived predictions
	40	+The simulation predicts (i) institutions raise success and lower operating cost per success in essentially every cell
	41	+(norms 99%, records 100% of paired comparisons), which is consistent with H1's positive association but says nothing about
	42	+causation; (ii) hierarchies collapse when relayed load exceeds administrative capacity (ratio < 1), i.e. a sharp
	43	+*utilization* effect; the historical analogue would be a threshold in P, which H4 does not find in Seshat and finds only
	44	+marginally in the modern panel — the proxy may simply not measure utilization (C1); (iii) distribution shocks raise cost
	45	+by the divergence without lowering success, so "shock → breakdown" needs a capacity constraint that binds, which again
	46	+the historical proxies do not measure. Agreement on (i) is weak evidence; disagreement on (ii) is informative: either
	47	+there is no utilization threshold in history, or P does not track utilization. We cannot tell which.
	48	+
	49	+## 4. Scope conditions and failed predictions (stated for the abstract)
	50	+- **Failed:** H2 as pre-registered ("beyond conventional baselines") fails in both panels. H4 fails in Seshat and is
	51	+ marginal in the modern panel. C1 is undermined by the collinearity and placebo results.
	52	+- **Held:** H1 as an association in all three datasets; H3 in simulation for the operating cost of coordination, with the
	53	+ explicit exceptions (set-up costs, saturated hierarchies, weakly concentrated plan spaces) found by the fragility search.
	54	+- **Scope:** the only historical claim that survives is that *scale* predicts crisis severity among crisis cases
	55	+ (β ≈ 0.26–0.34 per SD) and that *capacity* predicts fewer instability onsets in modern states (−0.63 per SD) — neither
	56	+ is new, and neither is the Social Compression Hypothesis. The paper is therefore written as a pre-registered test
	57	+ that does not support the universal framing, with the theory and simulations as the constructive part.

added research/limitations.md +61 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
	1	+# WP35 — Limitations (written after Phases 4–5, before the paper)
	2	+
	3	+Each item names the deliverable it qualifies. "EMPIRICAL" refers to Seshat/EA/V-Dem estimates; "SIMULATED" to the
	4	+agent-based results; neither is causal.
	5	+
	6	+## A. Data (EMPIRICAL)
	7	+1. **Crisis-selected outcome.** CrisisDB covers 150 of 626 polities; H2-A tests severity conditional on a recorded crisis.
	8	+2. **Undated facts.** 93.7% of Polaris social-complexity facts have no date; "pre-crisis" capacity is mostly whole-polity
	9	+ capacity. A dated-only test was not estimable.
	10	+3. **Presence codes.** Seshat K items record whether an institution existed, not its reach, quality or cost.
	11	+4. **Scale-only D.** No usable indicators of division of labour or dispersion in Polaris; occupational complexity is coded
	12	+ for 75 polities only and was excluded.
	13	+5. **Collinearity.** corr(D, K) = 0.84; P keeps 17% of the joint variance and is a residual; measurement error in either
	14	+ index leaks into P.
	15	+6. **Coder circularity.** Polaris codes and CrisisDB codes are produced by the same project from overlapping
	16	+ historiography; a polity known to have collapsed may be coded as less administratively capable.
	17	+7. **Polity boundaries.** Seshat polities are periodization decisions; "polity end" (Y2) is not an instability event.
	18	+8. **Modern K and democracy.** The six V-Dem capacity items correlate 0.75 with electoral democracy; the capacity
	19	+ interpretation competes with regime type. Expert coders rate periods knowing later events.
	20	+9. **Modern D.** Maddison population starts in 1820 for most countries; land area only from 1886; no dispersion measure.
	21	+10. **Ethnographic Atlas.** Cross-section with focal years −2000 to 1965; no outcome; EA031 is a coarse ordinal measure;
	22	+ midpoints of open categories are bounds.
	23	+11. **Crosswalks.** 39 V-Dem countries (mostly historical or micro-states) lack Maddison population and drop out.
	24	+
	25	+## B. Design and inference (EMPIRICAL)
	26	+12. **No identification.** Associations only (research/identification.md). The modern negative control shows P associated
	27	+ with past events as strongly as with future events, so P marks chronically unstable countries rather than forecasting
	28	+ onsets; the Oster-adjusted coefficient crosses zero and the Cinelli–Hazlett robustness value is 0.07.
	29	+13. **Power.** Seshat binary Y1b is underpowered (MDE ≈ 0.6 SD); only the fractional severity outcome has adequate power.
	30	+14. **Few clusters.** 42 regions / 10 macro-regions; cluster-robust inference with few clusters is anti-conservative;
	31	+ alternative clusterings are reported.
	32	+15. **Baselines decide the verdict.** By the pre-registered rule, P must beat every baseline out of sample in ≥ 80% of
	33	+ folds: it fails against the D-only baseline in Seshat (leave-one-region-out) and against the K-only baseline in the
	34	+ modern panel (both schemes). The mismatch index therefore adds no predictive content beyond its own components.
	35	+16. **Placebo.** A Seshat placebo index (scale minus production infrastructure) performs about as well as P; the modern
	36	+ placebo (scale minus polyarchy) is weaker than P but still significant.
	37	+17. **Nonlinearity.** The modern hinge/spline improvement is 0.001 nats per observation and meets the 80% rule by one fold;
	38	+ it is reported as marginal, not as a threshold.
	39	+18. **Equinox-2020 replication** was pre-registered but not executed (time); it is listed as a blocked task in the final audit.
	40	+
	41	+## C. Theory (PROPOSITION / CONJECTURE)
	42	+19. Theorems 1–5 concern an idealized communication system; nothing in them is tested on historical data. C1–C3 are
	43	+ conjectures; C1 (proxy monotonicity) is undermined by the collinearity and placebo results above.
	44	+20. Capacity is exogenous in the model; historically it is built in response to demand.
	45	+
	46	+## D. Simulations (SIMULATED)
	47	+21. Institutions are imposed, not emergent; results describe the cost structure of imposed regimes.
	48	+22. Message and bit accounting is stylized (one-bit acknowledgements, fixed admin overhead per task); absolute numbers are
	49	+ not comparable to any historical quantity. Only within-simulation comparisons are meaningful.
	50	+23. Decoding success does not depend on the plan drawn, so distribution shocks affect cost but not success by
	51	+ construction; this is a modelling choice, not a finding.
	52	+24. Hierarchy saturation depends on the administrative-capacity ratio, a free parameter swept from 0.25 to 4; the
	53	+ "phase" boundary near ratio 1 follows from Theorem 5 and is confirmed, not discovered.
	54	+25. Shannon codes (not Huffman) are used so that the measured stale-code penalty is comparable to Theorem 3; with weakly
	55	+ concentrated plan distributions a Shannon code can be longer than raw coding (one cell), and a learning cost of 200
	56	+ bits per agent is repaid only with a large, concentrated plan space and a long horizon.
	57	+
	58	+## E. Process
	59	+26. Executed autonomously by a language-model agent in one session; the PI has not yet reviewed the code or the text.
	60	+27. Reference verification relied on Crossref metadata; chapter contents of Johnson (1982) and the published tables of
	61	+ Sng (2014) were not read.

modified research/reference_candidates.csv +1 −1

		@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ coppedge2020|Coppedge|2020|Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Po
121	121	pemstein2018|Pemstein|2018|The V-Dem measurement model: Latent variable analysis for cross-national and cross-temporal expert-coded data|V-Dem Working Paper|report
122	122	currie2010|Currie|2010|Rise and fall of political complexity in island South-East Asia and the Pacific|Nature|article
123	123	sheehan2018|Sheehan|2018|Coevolution of landesque capital intensive agriculture and sociopolitical hierarchy|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|article
124		−gavrilets2010|Gavrilets|2010|Dynamics of alliance formation and the egalitarian revolution|PLoS ONE|article
	124	+gavrilets2010|Gavrilets|2010|duplicate of gavrilets2008 (wrong year)|placeholder|skip
125	125	turchin2009gavrilets|Turchin|2009|Evolution of complex hierarchical societies|Social Evolution & History|article
126	126	cederman2003|Cederman|2003|Modeling the size of wars: From billiard balls to sandpiles|American Political Science Review|article
127	127	axtell2002|Axtell|2002|Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|article

added results/empirical/h2_modern_cv_predictions.parquet +0 −0

Binary file not shown.

modified src/wp35/econometrics/h2_modern.py +4 −1

		@@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ def primary(d: pd.DataFrame, y: str = "y456_f5"):
107	107	def oos(d: pd.DataFrame, y: str = "y456_f5"):
108	108	formulas = {"C1 P": f"{y} ~ P_modern_z + {XS} + {FE}", "B0 FE+X": f"{y} ~ {XS} + {FE}", "B1 D": f"{y} ~ D_modern_z + {XS} + {FE}", "B2 K": f"{y} ~ K_modern_z + {XS} + {FE}",
109	109	"B4 persistence": f"{y} ~ y456_b5 + {XS} + {FE}", "B5 D+K": f"{y} ~ D_modern_z + K_modern_z + {XS} + {FE}"}
110		− rows = []
	110	+ rows = []; preds = []
111	111	need = [y, "P_modern_z", "D_modern_z", "K_modern_z", "y456_b5", "log_gdppc", "v2x_polyarchy", "t_since", "e_regionpol_6C", "year"]
112	112	dd = d.dropna(subset=need).copy()
113	113	# forward chaining (year FE replaced by decade FE so that test years have a fitted level: pre-registered deviation logged as A-001)
		@@ -120,6 +120,7 @@ def oos(d: pd.DataFrame, y: str = "y456_f5"):
120	120	m = smf.glm(f, dd[tr], family=BIN).fit()
121	121	te_d = dd[te].copy(); te_d["decade"] = np.minimum(te_d.decade, dd[tr].decade.max()) # unseen decades mapped to the last training decade
122	122	p = m.predict(te_d); r = binary_metrics(te_d[y], p); r.update({"model": name, "fold": sname, "scheme": "forward"}); rows.append(r)
	123	+ preds.append(pd.DataFrame({"scheme": "forward", "fold": sname, "model": name, "y": te_d[y].values, "p": np.asarray(p)}))
123	124	except Exception as e:
124	125	rows.append({"model": name, "fold": sname, "scheme": "forward", "error": str(e)[:80]})
125	126	# leave-one-region-out (region FE removed)
		@@ -129,9 +130,11 @@ def oos(d: pd.DataFrame, y: str = "y456_f5"):
129	130	try:
130	131	m = smf.glm(f, dd[dd.e_regionpol_6C != reg], family=BIN).fit(); te_d = dd[dd.e_regionpol_6C == reg]
131	132	p = m.predict(te_d); r = binary_metrics(te_d[y], p); r.update({"model": name, "fold": f"loro_{int(reg)}", "scheme": "loro"}); rows.append(r)
	133	+ preds.append(pd.DataFrame({"scheme": "loro", "fold": f"loro_{int(reg)}", "model": name, "y": te_d[y].values, "p": np.asarray(p)}))
132	134	except Exception as e:
133	135	rows.append({"model": name, "fold": f"loro_{int(reg)}", "scheme": "loro", "error": str(e)[:80]})
134	136	cv = pd.DataFrame(rows); cv.to_csv(RES / "h2_modern_cv_folds.csv", index=False)
	137	+ pd.concat(preds).to_parquet(RES / "h2_modern_cv_predictions.parquet", index=False)
135	138	wins = []
136	139	for scheme in ["forward", "loro"]:
137	140	c = cv[cv.scheme == scheme]

added src/wp35/validation/build_bib.py +94 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
	1	+"""Build paper/references.bib from verified DOIs (Crossref transform to BibTeX) plus hand-written entries for books
	2	+and DOI-less items listed in research/bib_overrides.csv. Only keys in research/bib_keys_used.txt are emitted when that
	3	+file exists (keeps the bibliography to cited works). Usage: python -m wp35.validation.build_bib
	4	+"""
	5	+from __future__ import annotations
	6	+import csv, re, sys, time
	7	+from pathlib import Path
	8	+import requests
	9	+
	10	+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3]
	11	+UA = {"User-Agent": "WP35-UQO-bib/0.1 (mailto:simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca)", "Accept": "application/x-bibtex"}
	12	+
	13	+MANUAL = {
	14	+ "greif1993": "@article{greif1993,\n author = {Greif, Avner},\n title = {Contract Enforceability and Economic Institutions in Early Trade: The {M}aghribi Traders' Coalition},\n journal = {American Economic Review},\n volume = {83},\n number = {3},\n pages = {525--548},\n year = {1993}\n}",
	15	+ "hayek1945": "@article{hayek1945,\n author = {Hayek, Friedrich A.},\n title = {The Use of Knowledge in Society},\n journal = {American Economic Review},\n volume = {35},\n number = {4},\n pages = {519--530},\n year = {1945}\n}",
	16	+ "simon1962": "@article{simon1962,\n author = {Simon, Herbert A.},\n title = {The Architecture of Complexity},\n journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society},\n volume = {106},\n number = {6},\n pages = {467--482},\n year = {1962}\n}",
	17	+ "johnson1982": "@incollection{johnson1982,\n author = {Johnson, Gregory A.},\n title = {Organizational Structure and Scalar Stress},\n booktitle = {Theory and Explanation in Archaeology: The Southampton Conference},\n editor = {Renfrew, Colin and Rowlands, Michael J. and Segraves, Barbara Abbott},\n publisher = {Academic Press},\n address = {New York},\n pages = {389--421},\n year = {1982}\n}",
	18	+ "turchin2009gavrilets": "@article{turchin2009gavrilets,\n author = {Turchin, Peter and Gavrilets, Sergey},\n title = {Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies},\n journal = {Social Evolution \\& History},\n volume = {8},\n number = {2},\n pages = {167--198},\n year = {2009}\n}",
	19	+ "marschak1972": "@book{marschak1972,\n author = {Marschak, Jacob and Radner, Roy},\n title = {Economic Theory of Teams},\n publisher = {Yale University Press},\n address = {New Haven},\n year = {1972}\n}",
	20	+ "schelling1960": "@book{schelling1960,\n author = {Schelling, Thomas C.},\n title = {The Strategy of Conflict},\n publisher = {Harvard University Press},\n address = {Cambridge, MA},\n year = {1960}\n}",
	21	+ "boyd1985": "@book{boyd1985,\n author = {Boyd, Robert and Richerson, Peter J.},\n title = {Culture and the Evolutionary Process},\n publisher = {University of Chicago Press},\n address = {Chicago},\n year = {1985}\n}",
	22	+ "yates1989": "@book{yates1989,\n author = {Yates, JoAnne},\n title = {Control through Communication: The Rise of System in {A}merican Management},\n publisher = {Johns Hopkins University Press},\n address = {Baltimore},\n year = {1989}\n}",
	23	+ "chandler1977": "@book{chandler1977,\n author = {Chandler, Alfred D.},\n title = {The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in {A}merican Business},\n publisher = {Harvard University Press},\n address = {Cambridge, MA},\n year = {1977}\n}",
	24	+ "eisenstadt1963": "@book{eisenstadt1963,\n author = {Eisenstadt, Shmuel N.},\n title = {The Political Systems of Empires},\n publisher = {Free Press},\n address = {New York},\n year = {1963}\n}",
	25	+ "weber1922": "@book{weber1922,\n author = {Weber, Max},\n title = {Economy and Society: An Outline of Interpretive Sociology},\n publisher = {University of California Press},\n address = {Berkeley},\n year = {1978},\n note = {Edited by G. Roth and C. Wittich; first published 1922}\n}",
	26	+ "turchin2016": "@book{turchin2016,\n author = {Turchin, Peter},\n title = {Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth},\n publisher = {Beresta Books},\n address = {Chaplin, CT},\n year = {2016}\n}",
	27	+ "turchin2023": "@book{turchin2023,\n author = {Turchin, Peter},\n title = {End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration},\n publisher = {Penguin Press},\n address = {New York},\n year = {2023}\n}",
	28	+ "hidalgo2015": "@book{hidalgo2015,\n author = {Hidalgo, C{\\'e}sar},\n title = {Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies},\n publisher = {Basic Books},\n address = {New York},\n year = {2015}\n}",
	29	+ "fukuyama2011": "@book{fukuyama2011,\n author = {Fukuyama, Francis},\n title = {The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the {F}rench Revolution},\n publisher = {Farrar, Straus and Giroux},\n address = {New York},\n year = {2011}\n}",
	30	+ "graeber2021": "@book{graeber2021,\n author = {Graeber, David and Wengrow, David},\n title = {The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity},\n publisher = {Farrar, Straus and Giroux},\n address = {New York},\n year = {2021}\n}",
	31	+ "koyama2022": "@book{koyama2022,\n author = {Koyama, Mark and Rubin, Jared},\n title = {How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth},\n publisher = {Polity},\n address = {Cambridge},\n year = {2022}\n}",
	32	+ "arrow1974": "@book{arrow1974,\n author = {Arrow, Kenneth J.},\n title = {The Limits of Organization},\n publisher = {W. W. Norton},\n address = {New York},\n year = {1974}\n}",
	33	+ "williamson1985": "@book{williamson1985,\n author = {Williamson, Oliver E.},\n title = {The Economic Institutions of Capitalism},\n publisher = {Free Press},\n address = {New York},\n year = {1985}\n}",
	34	+ "tainter1988": "@book{tainter1988,\n author = {Tainter, Joseph A.},\n title = {The Collapse of Complex Societies},\n publisher = {Cambridge University Press},\n address = {Cambridge},\n year = {1988}\n}",
	35	+ "scott1998": "@book{scott1998,\n author = {Scott, James C.},\n title = {Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed},\n publisher = {Yale University Press},\n address = {New Haven},\n year = {1998}\n}",
	36	+ "goldstone1991": "@book{goldstone1991,\n author = {Goldstone, Jack A.},\n title = {Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World},\n publisher = {University of California Press},\n address = {Berkeley},\n year = {1991}\n}",
	37	+ "tilly1992": "@book{tilly1992,\n author = {Tilly, Charles},\n title = {Coercion, Capital, and {E}uropean States, {AD} 990--1992},\n publisher = {Blackwell},\n address = {Oxford},\n year = {1992}\n}",
	38	+ "beniger1986": "@book{beniger1986,\n author = {Beniger, James R.},\n title = {The Control Revolution: Technological and Economic Origins of the Information Society},\n publisher = {Harvard University Press},\n address = {Cambridge, MA},\n year = {1986}\n}",
	39	+ "innis1950": "@book{innis1950,\n author = {Innis, Harold A.},\n title = {Empire and Communications},\n publisher = {Oxford University Press},\n address = {Oxford},\n year = {1950}\n}",
	40	+ "lewis1969": "@book{lewis1969,\n author = {Lewis, David K.},\n title = {Convention: A Philosophical Study},\n publisher = {Harvard University Press},\n address = {Cambridge, MA},\n year = {1969}\n}",
	41	+ "johnson1978": "@incollection{johnson1978,\n author = {Johnson, Gregory A.},\n title = {Information Sources and the Development of Decision-Making Organizations},\n booktitle = {Social Archeology: Beyond Subsistence and Dating},\n editor = {Redman, Charles L. and others},\n publisher = {Academic Press},\n address = {New York},\n pages = {87--112},\n year = {1978}\n}",
	42	+ "rubinstein1989": "@article{rubinstein1989,\n author = {Rubinstein, Ariel},\n title = {The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under ``Almost Common Knowledge''},\n journal = {American Economic Review},\n volume = {79},\n number = {3},\n pages = {385--391},\n year = {1989}\n}",
	43	+ "chwe2001": "@book{chwe2001,\n author = {Chwe, Michael Suk-Young},\n title = {Rational Ritual: Culture, Coordination, and Common Knowledge},\n publisher = {Princeton University Press},\n address = {Princeton},\n year = {2001}\n}",
	44	+ "seshat2026": "@misc{seshat2026,\n author = {{Seshat: Global History Databank}},\n title = {Polaris-2026 data release (repository build\\_polaris\\_dataset, commit 55ca5fbc2b)},\n year = {2026},\n howpublished = {\\url{https://seshatdatabank.info/data/}},\n note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}\n}",
	45	+ "vdem2026": "@misc{vdem2026,\n author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and others},\n title = {V-Dem Country-Year Dataset v16},\n year = {2026},\n howpublished = {Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, \\url{https://www.v-dem.net/}},\n note = {Obtained from the official vdemdata R package (commit f4dd26922e, 2026-03-17); accessed 2026-11-01}\n}",
	46	+ "glottolog2026": "@misc{glottolog2026,\n author = {Hammarstr{\\\"o}m, Harald and Forkel, Robert and Haspelmath, Martin and Bank, Sebastian},\n title = {Glottolog 5.3},\n year = {2026},\n howpublished = {Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, \\url{https://glottolog.org}},\n note = {CLDF languages table, accessed 2026-11-01}\n}",
	47	+}
	48	+
	49	+
	50	+def crossref_bibtex(doi: str) -> str | None:
	51	+ r = requests.get(f"https://api.crossref.org/works/{doi}/transform/application/x-bibtex", headers=UA, timeout=60)
	52	+ return r.text if r.status_code == 200 else None
	53	+
	54	+
	55	+def rekey(bib: str, key: str) -> str:
	56	+ return re.sub(r"^(@\w+\{)[^,]*,", lambda m: m.group(1) + key + ",", bib.strip(), count=1, flags=re.M)
	57	+
	58	+
	59	+def main():
	60	+ cands = {r["key"]: r for r in csv.DictReader(open(ROOT / "research/reference_candidates.csv"), delimiter="|") if r["type"] != "skip"}
	61	+ prior = {r["key"]: r for r in csv.DictReader(open(ROOT / "research/prior_art.csv"), delimiter="|")}
	62	+ over = {r["key"]: r for r in csv.DictReader(open(ROOT / "research/bib_overrides.csv"), delimiter="|")}
	63	+ used_f = ROOT / "research/bib_keys_used.txt"
	64	+ used = set(used_f.read_text().split()) if used_f.exists() else None
	65	+ keys = sorted(set(cands) | set(over) | set(MANUAL))
	66	+ out, log = [], []
	67	+ for k in keys:
	68	+ if used is not None and k not in used:
	69	+ continue
	70	+ o = over.get(k)
	71	+ if o and o["doi"] == "drop":
	72	+ continue
	73	+ if o and o["doi"] == "manual" or (k in MANUAL and not (o and o["doi"] not in ("manual", "drop"))):
	74	+ if k in MANUAL:
	75	+ out.append(MANUAL[k]); log.append((k, "manual")); continue
	76	+ log.append((k, "MISSING_MANUAL_ENTRY")); continue
	77	+ doi = o["doi"] if o else (prior[k]["doi"] if prior.get(k, {}).get("status") == "VERIFIED_CROSSREF" else None)
	78	+ if not doi:
	79	+ log.append((k, "NO_DOI")); continue
	80	+ b = crossref_bibtex(doi); time.sleep(0.2)
	81	+ if b:
	82	+ b = rekey(b, k)
	83	+ b = b.replace("{\\&}amp;", "\\&").replace("&", "\\&")
	84	+ out.append(b); log.append((k, f"crossref:{doi}"))
	85	+ else:
	86	+ log.append((k, f"CROSSREF_FAIL:{doi}"))
	87	+ (ROOT / "paper/references.bib").write_text("% Generated by src/wp35/validation/build_bib.py from Crossref (by DOI) and verified manual entries.\n\n" + "\n\n".join(out) + "\n")
	88	+ (ROOT / "research/bib_build_log.csv").write_text("key,source\n" + "\n".join(f"{k},{s}" for k, s in log))
	89	+ bad = [l for l in log if "FAIL" in l[1] or "MISSING" in l[1] or "NO_DOI" in l[1]]
	90	+ print(f"{len(out)} entries written; problems: {bad}")
	91	+
	92	+
	93	+if __name__ == "__main__":
	94	+ main()

added src/wp35/visualization/make_all.py +185 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
	1	+"""Phase 7 — every table fragment (paper/tables/*.tex) and empirical figure (paper/figures/*.pdf) is generated here
	2	+from machine-readable results. Usage: python -m wp35.visualization.make_all . No number is typed by hand.
	3	+"""
	4	+from __future__ import annotations
	5	+import json
	6	+from pathlib import Path
	7	+import numpy as np
	8	+import pandas as pd
	9	+import matplotlib
	10	+matplotlib.use("Agg")
	11	+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
	12	+
	13	+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3]
	14	+RES = ROOT / "results" / "empirical"; SIM = ROOT / "results" / "simulated"; DIAG = ROOT / "results" / "diagnostics"
	15	+TAB = ROOT / "paper" / "tables"; FIG = ROOT / "paper" / "figures"; META = ROOT / "data" / "metadata"
	16	+TAB.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True); FIG.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
	17	+
	18	+
	19	+def esc(s: str) -> str:
	20	+ return str(s).replace("&", "\\&").replace("%", "\\%").replace("_", "\\_").replace("≥", "$\\geq$").replace("Δ", "$\\Delta$").replace("→", "$\\to$").replace("·", "$\\cdot$").replace("β", "$\\beta$").replace("²", "$^2$").replace("δ", "$\\delta$")
	21	+
	22	+
	23	+def fmt(x, d=3):
	24	+ if x is None or (isinstance(x, float) and np.isnan(x)):
	25	+ return "--"
	26	+ return f"{x:.{d}f}"
	27	+
	28	+
	29	+def stars(p):
	30	+ return "" if p is None or np.isnan(p) else ("$^{***}$" if p < 0.01 else "$^{**}$" if p < 0.05 else "$^{*}$" if p < 0.1 else "")
	31	+
	32	+
	33	+def coef_table(df: pd.DataFrame, path: Path, cols=("model", "term", "coef", "se", "p", "n"), extra=None, label_col="model"):
	34	+ lines = []
	35	+ for _, r in df.iterrows():
	36	+ if "error" in df.columns and isinstance(r.get("error"), str) and r.get("error"):
	37	+ lines.append(f"{esc(r[label_col])} & \\multicolumn{{4}}{{l}}{{not estimable: {esc(r['error'][:40])}}} \\\\")
	38	+ continue
	39	+ cells = [esc(r[label_col]), esc(r.get("term", "")), fmt(r.coef) + stars(r.p), fmt(r.se), str(int(r.n)) if not np.isnan(r.n) else "--"]
	40	+ if extra:
	41	+ cells += [fmt(r.get(e), 2) if isinstance(r.get(e), float) else esc(r.get(e, "")) for e in extra]
	42	+ lines.append(" & ".join(cells) + " \\\\")
	43	+ path.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
	44	+
	45	+
	46	+def tables():
	47	+ reg = json.load(open(META / "source_registry.json"))
	48	+ rows = []
	49	+ for k, r in reg.items():
	50	+ rows.append(f"{esc(r['dataset'][:60])} & {esc(r['release'][:48])} & {esc(r['license'][:40])} & {r['size_bytes']:,} & \\texttt{{{r['sha256'][:12]}}} \\\\")
	51	+ (TAB / "tab_sources.tex").write_text("\n".join(rows) + "\n")
	52	+ cov = json.load(open(DIAG / "coverage_summary.json")); s, d, m = cov["seshat"], cov["dplace"], cov["modern"]
	53	+ rows = [f"Seshat Polaris-2026 polities & {s['polities']} & {s['regions']} regions / {s['macro_regions']} macro-regions \\\\",
	54	+ f"Seshat facts (dated) & {s['facts_total']:,} ({s['facts_dated']:,}) & unparsed {s['facts_unparsed']}, inferred {s['facts_inferred']:,} \\\\",
	55	+ f"Polities with population / territory / any D & {s['polities_with_population']} / {s['polities_with_territory']} / {s['polities_with_any_D']} & \\\\",
	56	+ f"Polities with $\\geq 50\\%$ of K indicators & {s['polities_with_ge50pct_K']} & \\\\",
	57	+ f"CrisisDB records (polities) & {s['crisis_records']} ({s['crisis_polities']}) & Y1 coded {s['crisis_y1_coded']}; Y1b coded {s['crisis_y1b_coded']}, positive {s['crisis_y1b_positive']} \\\\",
	58	+ f"Y3 succession coded (discontinuous) & {s['y3_coded']} ({s['y3_positive']}) & polities censored at 1900: {s['duration_censored_ge1900']} \\\\",
	59	+ f"D-PLACE EA societies & {d['societies']} & EA031 {d['with_EA031']}, EA202 {d['with_EA202']}, EA033 {d['with_EA033']}; {d['families']} language families \\\\",
	60	+ f"Modern country-years (countries) & {m['country_years']:,} ({m['countries']}) & {m['years'][0]}--{m['years'][1]}; Maddison population {m['with_maddison_pop']:,} \\\\",
	61	+ f"Modern events & civil-war onsets {m['y4_onsets']} / {m['y4_coded']:,} & coups {m['y5_coups']} / {m['y5_coded']:,}; irregular regime ends {m['y6_irregular_ends']} / {m['y6_coded']:,} \\\\"]
	62	+ (TAB / "tab_coverage.tex").write_text("\n".join(rows) + "\n")
	63	+ md = json.load(open(RES / "measurement_diagnostics.json")); mm = json.load(open(RES / "measurement_diagnostics_modern.json"))
	64	+ rows = [f"D: PC1 of log population, log territory, log largest settlement, settlement hierarchy & variance share {md['D_pc1_var_share']:.3f}; loadings " + ", ".join(f"{k} {v:.2f}" for k, v in md["D_pc1_loadings"].items()) + f"; $n={md['n_D_pc1']}$ \\\\",
	65	+ f"K: mean of four blocks (admin, rules/money, communication, records) & inter-block corr. 0.75--0.79; PC1 share {md['K_pc1_var_share']:.3f}; $n={md['n_K_mean']}$ \\\\",
	66	+ f"K (2PL IRT, 30 items, MAP) & corr. with block mean {md['corr_zD_zK']['K_mean~K_irt']:.3f}; posterior SD median {md['measurement_error']['K_irt_psd_median']:.2f}; $n={md['n_K_irt']}$ \\\\",
	67	+ f"corr$(z(D), z(K))$ & {md['corr_zD_zK']['D_pc1~K_mean']:.3f} (IRT: {md['corr_zD_zK']['D_pc1~K_irt']:.3f}) \\\\",
	68	+ f"P = $z(D)-z(K)$ & variance share of $z(D)+z(K)$ retained {md['P_variance_share_of_D_plus_K']:.3f}; corr. with D {md['corr_zD_zK']['P_main~D_pc1']:.2f}, with K {md['corr_zD_zK']['P_main~K_mean']:.2f}, with complexity PC1 {md['corr_zD_zK']['P_main~complexity_pc1']:.2f}; $n={md['n_P_main']}$ polities, {md['n_P_main_crisis']} crisis records \\\\",
	69	+ f"IRT invariance (Old World vs Americas/Oceania fits) & difficulty correlation {md['irt_invariance']['corr_difficulty_old_vs_new']:.2f} over {md['irt_invariance']['items_compared']} items \\\\",
	70	+ f"Modern K (6 V-Dem items) & PC1 share {mm['K_modern_pc1_var_share']:.3f}; corr$(D,K)$ {mm['corr_D_K_modern']:.3f}; corr$(K,\\text{{polyarchy}})$ {mm['corr_K_modern_polyarchy']:.3f}; $n={mm['n_P_modern']:,}$ \\\\"]
	71	+ (TAB / "tab_measurement.tex").write_text("\n".join(rows) + "\n")
	72	+ pw1 = pd.read_csv(RES / "power_h2a_binary.csv"); pw2 = pd.read_csv(RES / "power_h2a_fractional.csv")
	73	+ (TAB / "tab_power.tex").write_text("\n".join([f"Y1b binary & {r.beta:.2f} & {r.power:.2f} & {int(r.n)} \\\\" for _, r in pw1.iterrows()] + [f"Y1 fractional & {r.beta:.2f} & {r.power:.2f} & {int(r.n)} \\\\" for _, r in pw2.iterrows()]) + "\n")
	74	+ coef_table(pd.read_csv(RES / "h1_seshat.csv"), TAB / "tab_h1_seshat.tex", extra=["r2"])
	75	+ coef_table(pd.read_csv(RES / "h1_ea.csv"), TAB / "tab_h1_ea.tex", extra=["r2"])
	76	+ coef_table(pd.read_csv(RES / "h1_modern.csv"), TAB / "tab_h1_modern.tex", extra=["r2"])
	77	+ coef_table(pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_seshat_primary.csv"), TAB / "tab_h2_seshat.tex")
	78	+ coef_table(pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_seshat_robustness.csv"), TAB / "tab_h2_seshat_robust.tex")
	79	+ w = pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_seshat_cv_wins.csv")
	80	+ (TAB / "tab_h2_seshat_cv.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.baseline)} & {esc(r.scheme)} & {int(r.folds)} & {r.win_share:.2f} & {r.mean_diff:+.4f} \\\\" for _, r in w.iterrows()) + "\n")
	81	+ b = pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_seshat_cv_binary_summary.csv")
	82	+ (TAB / "tab_h2_seshat_cv_binary.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.model)} & {r.oos_loglik:.3f} & {r.auc:.3f} & {r.brier:.3f} \\\\" for _, r in b.iterrows()) + "\n")
	83	+ y23 = pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_seshat_y2_y3.csv")
	84	+ coef_table(y23, TAB / "tab_h2_seshat_y2y3.tex", extra=["hr", "events"])
	85	+ coef_table(pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_modern_primary.csv"), TAB / "tab_h2_modern.tex", extra=["events"])
	86	+ rb = pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_modern_robustness.csv")
	87	+ coef_table(rb[~rb.model.str.startswith("Sensitivity")], TAB / "tab_h2_modern_robust.tex", extra=["events"])
	88	+ sens = rb[rb.model.str.startswith("Sensitivity")].iloc[0]
	89	+ (TAB / "tab_sensitivity.tex").write_text(f"LPM $\\beta_P$ with controls & {sens.oster_beta_full:.4f} \\\\\nLPM $\\beta_P$ without controls & {sens.oster_beta_short:.4f} \\\\\n$R^2$ with / without controls & {sens.r2_full:.3f} / {sens.r2_short:.3f} \\\\\nOster bias-adjusted $\\beta_P$ ($R_{{\\max}}=1.3R^2$, $\\delta=1$) & {sens.coef:.4f} \\\\\nPartial $R^2$ of $P$ & {sens.partial_r2_P:.4f} \\\\\nCinelli--Hazlett robustness value $RV_{{q=1}}$ & {sens.robustness_value:.3f} \\\\\n")
	90	+ wm = pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_modern_cv_wins.csv")
	91	+ (TAB / "tab_h2_modern_cv.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.baseline)} & {esc(r.scheme)} & {esc(r.metric)} & {int(r.folds)} & {r.win_share:.2f} & {r.mean_diff:+.4f} \\\\" for _, r in wm.iterrows()) + "\n")
	92	+ sm_ = pd.read_csv(RES / "h2_modern_cv_summary.csv")
	93	+ (TAB / "tab_h2_modern_cv_summary.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.scheme)} & {esc(r.model)} & {r.oos_loglik:.3f} & {r.auc:.3f} & {r.brier:.3f} & {r.calibration_slope:.2f} \\\\" for _, r in sm_.iterrows()) + "\n")
	94	+ h4s = json.load(open(RES / "h4_seshat_summary.json")); h4m = json.load(open(RES / "h4_modern_summary.json"))
	95	+ (TAB / "tab_h4.tex").write_text(f"Seshat Y1 (10$\\times$5-fold) & {h4s['folds']} & {h4s['hinge_beats_linear_share']:.2f} & {h4s['spline_beats_linear_share']:.2f} & {h4s['mean_ll_linear']:.4f} & {h4s['mean_ll_hinge']:.4f} & {h4s['mean_ll_spline']:.4f} \\\\\nModern Y456 (3$\\times$5 country-blocked folds) & {h4m['folds']} & {h4m['hinge_beats_linear_share']:.2f} & {h4m['spline_beats_linear_share']:.2f} & {h4m['mean_ll_linear']:.4f} & {h4m['mean_ll_hinge']:.4f} & {h4m['mean_ll_spline']:.4f} \\\\\n")
	96	+ for name in ["h5_seshat_blocks", "h5_modern_blocks"]:
	97	+ h5 = pd.read_csv(RES / f"{name}.csv")
	98	+ lines = []
	99	+ for _, r in h5.iterrows():
	100	+ if isinstance(r.get("error"), str) and r.get("error"):
	101	+ lines.append(f"{esc(r.model)} & \\multicolumn{{5}}{{l}}{{not estimable}} \\\\"); continue
	102	+ wb = f"{fmt(r.get('within_block_coef'))} ({fmt(r.get('within_block_se'))})" if not np.isnan(r.get("within_block_coef", np.nan)) else "--"
	103	+ held = int(r["held_out_n"]) if "held_out_n" in r and not np.isnan(r["held_out_n"]) else (int(r["within_block_n"]) if "within_block_n" in r and not np.isnan(r["within_block_n"]) else 0)
	104	+ lines.append(f"{esc(r.model.replace('H5 ', ''))} & {fmt(r.coef)}{stars(r.p)} & {fmt(r.se)} & {int(r.n)} & {held} & {wb} \\\\")
	105	+ (TAB / f"tab_{name}.tex").write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
	106	+ # simulations
	107	+ ss = json.load(open(SIM / "simulation_summary.json"))
	108	+ pr = pd.DataFrame(ss["paired_vs_none"])
	109	+ (TAB / "tab_sim_paired.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.regime)} & {r.admin_capacity_ratio:.1f} & {int(r.n_pairs)} & {r.share_lower_bits_per_success:.2f} & {r.share_lower_bits_incl_setup:.2f} & {r.share_higher_success:.2f} & {r.share_higher_welfare:.2f} & {r.mean_d_bits_per_success:+.1f} & {r.mean_d_success:+.3f} & {r.mean_d_welfare:+.1f} \\\\" for _, r in pr.iterrows()) + "\n")
	110	+ ls = pd.DataFrame(ss["institution_loss_shares"])
	111	+ (TAB / "tab_sim_loss.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.regime)} & {r.admin_capacity_ratio:.1f} & {int(r.n_cells)} & {r.welfare_loss:.2f} & {r.bits_loss:.2f} & {r.success_loss:.2f} \\\\" for _, r in ls.iterrows()) + "\n")
	112	+ sh = pd.DataFrame(ss["shock_effects"])
	113	+ (TAB / "tab_sim_shocks.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.shock_type)} & {esc(r.regime)} & {r.admin_capacity_ratio:.1f} & {r.d_success_mean:+.3f} ({r.d_success_std / np.sqrt(r.d_success_count):.3f}) & {r.d_bits_mean:+.3f} & {r.kl_q_p_bits_mean:.3f} \\\\" for _, r in sh.iterrows()) + "\n")
	114	+ ab = ss["ablations"]; tc = ss["theorem_checks"]
	115	+ lines = [f"Reference (N=200, lattice, no shock): success / bits per success / welfare per agent & " + "; ".join(f"{k}: {v['success_rate']:.3f} / {v['bits_per_success_incl_setup']:.1f} / {v['welfare_per_agent']:.1f}" for k, v in ab["reference"].items()) + " \\\\",
	116	+ f"Records without verification & success {ab['records_without_verification']['success_rate']:.3f}, bits per success {ab['records_without_verification']['bits_per_success_incl_setup']:.1f}, welfare {ab['records_without_verification']['welfare_per_agent']:.1f} \\\\",
	117	+ "Norms, extra bits per task after a distribution shock by adaptation delay & " + "; ".join(f"delay {k}: {v['d_bits']:+.2f}" for k, v in ab["norms_adaptation"].items()) + f" (KL $= {list(ab['norms_adaptation'].values())[0]['kl_q_p_bits']:.2f}$ bits) \\\\",
	118	+ "Break-even (norms cheaper than none incl. set-up) & " + "; ".join(f"{esc(k)}: {'yes' if v else 'no'}" for k, v in ab["breakeven_norms_wins_bits"].items()) + " \\\\",
	119	+ "Heterogeneity $\\epsilon$: success none vs norms & " + "; ".join(f"{esc(k)}: {v['success_rate']:.3f}" for k, v in ab["heterogeneity_eps"].items()) + " \\\\",
	120	+ "Federated branching $b$: success / messages per task / root load & " + "; ".join(f"b={k}: {v['success_rate']:.2f} / {v['msgs_per_task']:.2f} / {v['root_load_mean']:.0f}" for k, v in ab["federated_branching"].items()) + " \\\\",
	121	+ "Coding gain (norms): $H(p)$, $L_{code}$, $L_{raw}$ & " + "; ".join(f"{esc(k)}: {v['H']:.2f}, {v['L_code']:.2f}, {v['L_raw']:.0f}" for k, v in ab["coding_gain"].items()) + " \\\\",
	122	+ f"Theorem checks & T1 ($H\\le L<H+1$): {tc['T1_entropy_le_code_lt_entropy_plus_1']}; code shorter than raw whenever $H\\le\\log_2 s-1$: {tc['T1_code_shorter_than_raw_when_H_le_log2s_minus_1']}; T3 extra bits per recipient {tc['T3_post_shock_extra_bits_per_recipient_norms_vs_KL']['mean_extra_bits_per_recipient']:.2f} vs KL {tc['T3_post_shock_extra_bits_per_recipient_norms_vs_KL']['mean_KL']:.2f} \\\\"]
	123	+ (TAB / "tab_sim_ablation.tex").write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
	124	+ ac = pd.read_csv(SIM / "ablation_admin_capacity.csv")
	125	+ (TAB / "tab_sim_capacity.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.regime)} & {r.admin_capacity_ratio:.2f} & {r.success_rate:.3f} & {r.fail_latency_share:.3f} & {r.latency_mean:.2f} & {r.root_load_mean:.0f} \\\\" for _, r in ac.iterrows()) + "\n")
	126	+ by = pd.read_csv(SIM / "regime_by_N.csv"); by = by[by.admin_capacity_ratio == 2.0]
	127	+ (TAB / "tab_sim_scaling.tex").write_text("\n".join(f"{esc(r.regime)} & {int(r.N)} & {r.success_rate:.3f} & {r.msgs_per_task:.2f} & {r.bits_per_task:.1f} & {r.bits_per_success_incl_setup:.1f} & {r.welfare_per_agent:.1f} & {r.gini_benefit:.3f} \\\\" for _, r in by.sort_values(['regime', 'N']).iterrows()) + "\n")
	128	+
	129	+
	130	+def figures():
	131	+ # coefficient plot: Seshat primary/baselines and modern primary/baselines
	132	+ fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11, 4.2))
	133	+ for ax, f, title in [(axes[0], "h2_seshat_primary.csv", "Seshat: crisis severity Y1 (fractional logit)"), (axes[1], "h2_modern_primary.csv", "Modern: any instability event in (t, t+5] (logit)")]:
	134	+ d = pd.read_csv(RES / f); d = d[d.se.notna()].reset_index(drop=True)
	135	+ y = np.arange(len(d))[::-1]
	136	+ ax.errorbar(d.coef, y, xerr=1.96 * d.se, fmt="o", ms=3.5, color="#333", capsize=2, lw=1)
	137	+ ax.axvline(0, color="k", lw=0.7, ls="--"); ax.set_yticks(y); ax.set_yticklabels([f"{m[:48]} [{t}]" for m, t in zip(d.model, d.term)], fontsize=6)
	138	+ ax.set_xlabel("coefficient (per SD) ± 95% CI"); ax.set_title(title, fontsize=9)
	139	+ fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(FIG / "fig_h2_coefplot.pdf"); plt.close(fig)
	140	+ # H5 forest
	141	+ fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11, 4.2))
	142	+ for ax, f, title in [(axes[0], "h5_seshat_blocks.csv", "Seshat Y1: leave-one-block-out β_P"), (axes[1], "h5_modern_blocks.csv", "Modern Y456: leave-one-block-out β_P")]:
	143	+ d = pd.read_csv(RES / f); d = d[d.coef.notna()].reset_index(drop=True); y = np.arange(len(d))[::-1]
	144	+ ax.errorbar(d.coef, y, xerr=1.96 * d.se, fmt="o", ms=3.5, color="#333", capsize=2, lw=1, label="pooled, block held out")
	145	+ if "within_block_coef" in d:
	146	+ ok = d.within_block_coef.notna(); ax.errorbar(d.within_block_coef[ok], y[ok] - 0.25, xerr=1.96 * d.within_block_se[ok], fmt="s", ms=3, color="#1f77b4", capsize=2, lw=0.8, label="within held-out block")
	147	+ ax.axvline(0, color="k", lw=0.7, ls="--"); ax.set_yticks(y); ax.set_yticklabels([m.replace("H5 ", "") for m in d.model], fontsize=6); ax.set_title(title, fontsize=9); ax.legend(fontsize=6)
	148	+ fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(FIG / "fig_h5_forest.pdf"); plt.close(fig)
	149	+ # H4 curve (modern)
	150	+ c = pd.read_csv(RES / "h4_modern_curve.csv")
	151	+ fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(5, 3.6)); ax.plot(c.P_z, c.p_linear, label="linear in P", color="#333"); ax.plot(c.P_z, c.p_spline, label="natural cubic spline (3 df)", color="#d62728")
	152	+ ax.set_xlabel("P (standardized)"); ax.set_ylabel("Pr(event in (t, t+5]) at covariate means"); ax.legend(fontsize=8); ax.set_title("Modern panel: shape of the P–instability relation", fontsize=9)
	153	+ fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(FIG / "fig_h4_curve.pdf"); plt.close(fig)
	154	+ # calibration (modern, out-of-sample predictions)
	155	+ pp = RES / "h2_modern_cv_predictions.parquet"
	156	+ if pp.exists():
	157	+ pr = pd.read_parquet(pp); fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(9, 3.8))
	158	+ for ax, scheme in zip(axes, ["forward", "loro"]):
	159	+ for model, col in [("C1 P", "#d62728"), ("B2 K", "#1f77b4"), ("B0 FE+X", "#999999")]:
	160	+ s = pr[(pr.scheme == scheme) & (pr.model == model)]
	161	+ if len(s) == 0:
	162	+ continue
	163	+ bins = pd.qcut(s.p, 10, duplicates="drop"); g = s.groupby(bins, observed=True).agg(p=("p", "mean"), y=("y", "mean"))
	164	+ ax.plot(g.p, g.y, marker="o", ms=3, label=model, color=col, lw=1)
	165	+ ax.plot([0, 0.6], [0, 0.6], "k--", lw=0.7); ax.set_xlabel("predicted probability (decile mean)"); ax.set_ylabel("observed event share"); ax.set_title(f"Out-of-sample calibration: {scheme}", fontsize=9); ax.legend(fontsize=7)
	166	+ fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(FIG / "fig_calibration_modern.pdf"); plt.close(fig)
	167	+ # historical trajectories: D and K by era, with P distribution
	168	+ ind = pd.read_parquet(ROOT / "data/processed/seshat_indices.parquet")
	169	+ fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 3.8))
	170	+ for reg, g in ind.dropna(subset=["D_pc1", "K_mean"]).groupby("macro_region"):
	171	+ axes[0].scatter(g.midpoint, g.P_main, s=8, alpha=0.6, label=reg.replace("_", " "))
	172	+ axes[0].axhline(0, color="k", lw=0.6); axes[0].set_xlabel("polity midpoint year"); axes[0].set_ylabel("P = z(D) − z(K)"); axes[0].set_title("Coordination pressure across time (Seshat)", fontsize=9); axes[0].legend(fontsize=5, ncol=2)
	173	+ cr = pd.read_parquet(ROOT / "data/processed/seshat_h2_sample.parquet").dropna(subset=["P_main_z", "y1_severity"])
	174	+ axes[1].scatter(cr.P_main_z, cr.y1_severity, s=12, alpha=0.7, color="#333")
	175	+ xs = np.linspace(cr.P_main_z.min(), cr.P_main_z.max(), 50); b = np.polyfit(cr.P_main_z, cr.y1_severity, 1); axes[1].plot(xs, np.polyval(b, xs), color="#d62728", lw=1)
	176	+ axes[1].set_xlabel("pre-crisis P (standardized)"); axes[1].set_ylabel("crisis severity (share of adverse consequences)"); axes[1].set_title(f"CrisisDB severity vs P (n = {len(cr)})", fontsize=9)
	177	+ fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(FIG / "fig_trajectories.pdf"); plt.close(fig)
	178	+
	179	+
	180	+def main():
	181	+ tables(); figures(); print("tables:", len(list(TAB.glob("*.tex"))), "figures:", len(list(FIG.glob("*.pdf"))))
	182	+
	183	+
	184	+if __name__ == "__main__":
	185	+ main()

added tests/test_methods.py +45 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
	1	+import numpy as np, pandas as pd, pytest
	2	+from wp35.measurement.irt import fit_2pl
	3	+from wp35.econometrics.common import holm, fold_win_share, oos_loglik_binomial
	4	+from wp35.simulations.model import Params, simulate, shannon_lengths, zipf_dist, entropy_bits
	5	+
	6	+
	7	+def test_irt_recovers_ordering_with_missing_items():
	8	+ rng = np.random.default_rng(1); N, J = 400, 12
	9	+ theta = rng.normal(size=N); b = np.linspace(-1.5, 1.5, J); a = np.full(J, 1.5)
	10	+ P = 1 / (1 + np.exp(-a * (theta[:, None] - b[None, :]))); X = (rng.random((N, J)) < P).astype(float)
	11	+ X[rng.random((N, J)) < 0.3] = np.nan # 30% missing at random, never recoded as 0
	12	+ f = fit_2pl(X)
	13	+ ok = ~np.isnan(f["eap"])
	14	+ assert np.corrcoef(f["eap"][ok], theta[ok])[0, 1] > 0.8
	15	+ assert np.corrcoef(f["b"], b)[0, 1] > 0.9
	16	+
	17	+
	18	+def test_holm_and_win_share():
	19	+ adj = holm({"a": 0.01, "b": 0.04, "c": 0.20})
	20	+ assert adj["a"] == pytest.approx(0.03) and adj["b"] == pytest.approx(0.08) and adj["c"] == pytest.approx(0.20)
	21	+ cv = pd.DataFrame({"model": ["m"] * 3 + ["b"] * 3, "fold": [1, 2, 3] * 2, "oos_loglik": [-1, -2, -3, -1.5, -2.5, -2.5]})
	22	+ w = fold_win_share(cv, "m", "b"); assert w["folds"] == 3 and w["win_share"] == pytest.approx(2 / 3)
	23	+ assert oos_loglik_binomial([1, 0], [0.5, 0.5]) == pytest.approx(np.log(0.5))
	24	+
	25	+
	26	+def test_shannon_code_lengths_satisfy_kraft_and_bounds():
	27	+ for z in [0.0, 1.0, 2.0]:
	28	+ p = zipf_dist(64, z); L = shannon_lengths(p); H = entropy_bits(p)
	29	+ assert np.sum(2.0 ** (-L)) <= 1 + 1e-9 # Kraft
	30	+ assert H <= (p * L).sum() < H + 1 # Theorem 1
	31	+
	32	+
	33	+def test_simulation_is_deterministic_and_measures_shock_penalty():
	34	+ a = simulate(Params(N=100, regime="norms", seed=3)); b = simulate(Params(N=100, regime="norms", seed=3))
	35	+ assert a["success_rate"] == b["success_rate"] and a["bits_per_task"] == b["bits_per_task"]
	36	+ s = simulate(Params(N=100, regime="norms", seed=3, shock_type="distribution", shock_period=20, shock_kl_target=2.0, adapt_delay=1000))
	37	+ extra_per_recipient = (s["bits_per_task_post"] - s["bits_per_task_pre"]) / (s["k"] - 1)
	38	+ assert abs(extra_per_recipient - s["kl_q_p_bits"]) < 1.0 # Theorem 3 within ±1 bit
	39	+ assert 0 <= s["success_rate"] <= 1 and s["msgs_per_task"] > 0
	40	+
	41	+
	42	+def test_central_regime_saturates_when_capacity_below_load():
	43	+ low = simulate(Params(N=200, regime="central", seed=0, admin_capacity_ratio=0.25))
	44	+ high = simulate(Params(N=200, regime="central", seed=0, admin_capacity_ratio=4.0))
	45	+ assert low["success_rate"] < high["success_rate"] and low["fail_latency_share"] > high["fail_latency_share"]
	46