WP35 Phase 8: full LaTeX manuscript (73 pp.), bibliography, README
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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| 13 | econ: | 13 | econ: | ||
| 14 | $(PY) -m wp35.econometrics.run_all | 14 | $(PY) -m wp35.econometrics.run_all | ||
| 15 | sim: | 15 | sim: | ||
| 16 | − $(PY) -m wp35.simulations.run_experiments | 16 | + $(PY) -m wp35.simulations.run_experiments && $(PY) -m wp35.simulations.analyze | ||
| 17 | figures: | 17 | figures: | ||
| 18 | $(PY) -m wp35.visualization.make_all | 18 | $(PY) -m wp35.visualization.make_all | ||
| 19 | paper: | 19 | paper: | ||
| 20 | − cd paper && latexmk -pdf main.tex | 20 | + $(PY) -m wp35.validation.build_bib && cd paper && latexmk -pdf main.tex | ||
| 21 | test: | 21 | test: | ||
| 22 | .venv/bin/pytest -q | 22 | .venv/bin/pytest -q | ||
| 23 | clean: | 23 | clean: | ||
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README.md
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| 1 | +<!-- Author: Simon-Pierre Boucher — simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca --> | ||||
| 2 | +# 🧭 The Social Compression Hypothesis | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +**UQO Working Paper No. 35** — *A pre-registered test of coordination demand, institutional capacity, and instability in historical and modern societies, with a formal framework and agent-based experiments* | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +[-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf) | ||||
| 7 | +[](pyproject.toml) | ||||
| 8 | +[](data/raw/README.md) | ||||
| 9 | +[](Makefile) | ||||
| 10 | +[](research/preregistration.md) | ||||
| 11 | +[](https://uqo.ca) | ||||
| 12 | +[](mailto:simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca) | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +> **TL;DR** — Can the mismatch between a society's coordination *demand* (scale) and its coordination *capacity* (administration, standardized rules and money, communication infrastructure, record-keeping) predict instability? Under a pre-registration frozen before any outcome was examined, we built the indices from Seshat Polaris-2026 (626 polities, 127 CrisisDB crises with pre-crisis predictors), the Ethnographic Atlas (1,291 societies) and a V-Dem/Maddison panel (14,637 country-years, 2,692 events). Capacity and scale are positively associated everywhere. The mismatch index is positively associated with crisis severity (0.20 log-odds/SD) and modern instability onsets (0.40/SD), stable across regions and eras — **but fails the pre-registered test**: it does not beat the scale-only baseline (Seshat) or the capacity-only baseline (modern) out of sample, a placebo does as well, past events load on it as strongly as future ones, and an Oster adjustment flips its sign. Five theorems make "institutions as codes" precise; 6,632 agent-based runs confirm them in silico and locate where institutions hurt (unpaid set-up, saturated hierarchies, unstructured task spaces). The universal theory is not supported; the narrower paper is what we wrote. | ||||
| 15 | + | ||||
| 16 | +--- | ||||
| 17 | + | ||||
| 18 | +## 📌 Status | ||||
| 19 | + | ||||
| 20 | +| Item | Value | | ||||
| 21 | +|---|---| | ||||
| 22 | +| Version | 1.0 (November 2026) | | ||||
| 23 | +| SSRN | not yet submitted | | ||||
| 24 | +| Journal | — | | ||||
| 25 | +| Code & data | fully reproducible from the raw downloads (`make all`); raw files not redistributed (D-PLACE CC BY-NC, V-Dem terms); SHA-256 registry included | | ||||
| 26 | +| Process | executed autonomously by Claude Code (Fable 5.1) under the PI's mandate (`docs/MANDATE_VERBATIM.txt`); PI review pending | | ||||
| 27 | + | ||||
| 28 | +## 🎯 What this paper does | ||||
| 29 | + | ||||
| 30 | +The Social Compression Hypothesis reads institutions as devices that lower the communication cost per coordinated task. The paper (i) states that reading as five theorems (coding gain, break-even scale, stale-code penalty, hierarchical routing, backlog dynamics) and three explicit conjectures; (ii) pre-registers and runs the first out-of-sample test of the demand/capacity mismatch conjecture of Shin et al. (2020) on real historical and modern data; (iii) runs factorial agent-based experiments with five imposed institutional regimes where messages, bits, queues and overhead are measured directly. | ||||
| 31 | + | ||||
| 32 | +``` | ||||
| 33 | +P_it = z(log D_it) - z(K_it) # mismatch index (K standardized, not logged: bounded share) | ||||
| 34 | +E[Y1] = Λ(α + β P + γ'X + μ_region + τ_era) # Seshat crisis severity (fractional logit) | ||||
| 35 | +Pr(Y456 in (t,t+5]) = Λ(α + β P_it + γ'X_it + μ_r + τ_t) # modern onsets (logit, country-clustered) | ||||
| 36 | +``` | ||||
| 37 | + | ||||
| 38 | +## 🏆 Headline results | ||||
| 39 | + | ||||
| 40 | +| Object | Estimate | | ||||
| 41 | +|---|---| | ||||
| 42 | +| corr(z(D), z(K)) across Seshat polities | 0.84 — P retains 17% of the joint variance | | ||||
| 43 | +| H1 Seshat: D on K (region + era FE) | 0.75 SD per SD of K (SE-based 95% CI excludes 0); EA: 0.70 log community size per jurisdictional level; modern within-country 0.15 | | ||||
| 44 | +| H2-A Seshat crisis severity, β_P | 0.196 (SE 0.056, n = 127); with covariates 0.204 (0.085, n = 87); scale-only 0.257 (0.138); placebo 0.257 (0.138) | | ||||
| 45 | +| H2-A out of sample | beats FE-only / K-only / complexity in ≥ 80% of folds; **not** scale-only (75%), persistence (69%), D+K (75%); loses to scale alone in 7/10 leave-region-out folds | | ||||
| 46 | +| H2-C modern Y456, β_P | 0.398 (0.089, n = 14,637); capacity-only −0.632 (0.126); negative control (past events) 0.436 vs forward 0.475; Oster-adjusted −0.024; RV = 0.07 | | ||||
| 47 | +| H2-C out of sample | never beats capacity-only (forward chaining 0/2; LORO 1/6 log-lik) | | ||||
| 48 | +| H4 threshold | Seshat: hinge/spline beat linear in 10%/8% of folds; modern: 80%/87% but +0.001 nats (negligible) | | ||||
| 49 | +| H5 | β_P positive in every held-out macro-region, era, region and period | | ||||
| 50 | +| Y2 polity hazard / Y3 succession | no association with P (HR 1.00–1.03) | | ||||
| 51 | +| H3 (SIMULATED) | norms/records lower operating bits per success in 99.7% / 71% of paired runs and raise success in 99.3% / 100%; central hierarchy at half capacity: success −0.44; a 200-bit code is repaid only with s = 256, Zipf 1.5, T = 160; stale-code penalty 1.90 bits vs KL 1.98 | | ||||
| 52 | + | ||||
| 53 | +## 🗂 Repository layout | ||||
| 54 | + | ||||
| 55 | +``` | ||||
| 56 | +social-compression-hypothesis/ | ||||
| 57 | +├── CLAUDE.md, docs/MANDATE_VERBATIM.txt # mandate and binding rules | ||||
| 58 | +├── research/ # preregistration (frozen), literature_review, framework (theorems), | ||||
| 59 | +│ │ # measurement, identification, integration, limitations, decisions, | ||||
| 60 | +│ │ # prior_art.csv (Crossref-verified), bib_overrides.csv | ||||
| 61 | +├── configs/sources.yaml, regions.yaml # source registry inputs; macro-regions and eras | ||||
| 62 | +├── data/{raw,interim,processed,metadata}/ # raw (not committed; SHA-256 in metadata/source_registry.json) | ||||
| 63 | +├── src/wp35/ | ||||
| 64 | +│ ├── acquisition/fetch.py # downloads + hashes | ||||
| 65 | +│ ├── harmonization/{seshat,dplace,modern,build_panels}.py | ||||
| 66 | +│ ├── measurement/{irt,build_indices}.py # D, K, P, 2PL IRT, invariance, power | ||||
| 67 | +│ ├── econometrics/{common,h1,h2_seshat,h2_modern,run_all}.py | ||||
| 68 | +│ ├── simulations/{model,run_experiments,analyze}.py # SIMULATED | ||||
| 69 | +│ ├── visualization/make_all.py # every table fragment and figure | ||||
| 70 | +│ └── validation/{verify_bib,build_bib}.py # Crossref verification → references.bib | ||||
| 71 | +├── results/{empirical,simulated,diagnostics,logs}/ # machine-readable outputs, execution log, audit | ||||
| 72 | +├── tests/ # 11 tests (parsers, IRT, CV utilities, simulation invariants) | ||||
| 73 | +├── paper/ # main.tex, sections/, appendix/, tables/, figures/, references.bib → main.pdf | ||||
| 74 | +└── replication/ # replication guide | ||||
| 75 | +``` | ||||
| 76 | + | ||||
| 77 | +## 🚀 Quick start | ||||
| 78 | + | ||||
| 79 | +```bash | ||||
| 80 | +uv venv -p 3.12 .venv && uv pip install -p .venv/bin/python -e . | ||||
| 81 | +make fetch && make data && make measure && make econ && make sim && make figures && make paper | ||||
| 82 | +make test | ||||
| 83 | +``` | ||||
| 84 | + | ||||
| 85 | +About 25 minutes end-to-end on an Apple-silicon laptop (the modern-panel estimation dominates); the simulations take about one minute on 12 cores. | ||||
| 86 | + | ||||
| 87 | +## 🗃 Data | ||||
| 88 | + | ||||
| 89 | +| Source | Release obtained (2026-11-01) | Use | | ||||
| 90 | +|---|---|---| | ||||
| 91 | +| Seshat Global History Databank | Polaris-2026 (GitHub `build_polaris_dataset`, commit 55ca5fbc2b, MIT) + Equinox-2020 spreadsheet + Zenodo 8120128 | historical polities, CrisisDB crisis consequences | | ||||
| 92 | +| D-PLACE Ethnographic Atlas | v3.3 (CC BY-NC 4.0) + Glottolog 5.3 families | ethnographic cross-section (H1 only) | | ||||
| 93 | +| V-Dem | v16 via the official `vdemdata` R package (commit f4dd26922e) | modern institutions and outcomes | | ||||
| 94 | +| Maddison Project Database | 2023 (dataverse.nl 421302/421303) | modern population and GDP per capita | | ||||
| 95 | + | ||||
| 96 | +Coverage, missingness and the data dictionary: `results/diagnostics/`, `data/metadata/data_dictionary.md`. Missing is never zero; nothing is forward-filled; no outcome is imputed. | ||||
| 97 | + | ||||
| 98 | +## 🔬 Methodology | ||||
| 99 | + | ||||
| 100 | +1. `acquisition/fetch.py` — registry-driven downloads with SHA-256. | ||||
| 101 | +2. `harmonization/*` — long facts table with explicit uncertainty; polity, society and country-year panels; outcomes. | ||||
| 102 | +3. `measurement/build_indices.py` — D (PC1 of logged scale), K (four disjoint blocks; IRT alternative), P; invariance; bounds; a-priori power. | ||||
| 103 | +4. `econometrics/h1.py` — OLS/mixed (Seshat), Conley + ordered logit (EA), within/differences (modern). | ||||
| 104 | +5. `econometrics/h2_seshat.py` — fractional logit, baselines, placebo, 10×5 CV + leave-region-out, hinge/spline, H5 blocks, Cox, succession. | ||||
| 105 | +6. `econometrics/h2_modern.py` — pooled/conditional logit and LPM, forward chaining, LORO, negative control, placebo, Oster/Cinelli–Hazlett. | ||||
| 106 | +7. `simulations/*` — ABM with five imposed regimes; factorial 6,048 + 584 ablation runs; Shannon quantities where defined. | ||||
| 107 | +8. `visualization/make_all.py` — all 26 table fragments and 15 figures from results. | ||||
| 108 | + | ||||
| 109 | +## 🖼 Figures & tables inventory | ||||
| 110 | + | ||||
| 111 | +| Figure | Content | | ||||
| 112 | +|---|---| | ||||
| 113 | +| `fig_seshat_temporal_coverage`, `fig_seshat_missingness` | polity spans, crisis years, coded/missing indicators | | ||||
| 114 | +| `fig_measurement_DK`, `fig_irt_invariance` | D vs K, block vs latent K, item difficulties, Old/New World invariance | | ||||
| 115 | +| `fig_h2_coefplot`, `fig_h5_forest`, `fig_h4_curve`, `fig_calibration_modern`, `fig_trajectories` | main estimates, held-out blocks, shape, OOS calibration, P over time | | ||||
| 116 | +| `fig_sim_scaling`, `fig_sim_phase`, `fig_sim_breakeven`, `fig_sim_shocks` | SIMULATED scaling, saturation, break-even, shock responses | | ||||
| 117 | + | ||||
| 118 | +## ⚠️ Limitations | ||||
| 119 | + | ||||
| 120 | +Crisis-selected outcome; 94% of Seshat facts undated; presence codes; D is scale only; corr(D,K) = 0.84; modern K correlates 0.75 with democracy and is expert-coded ex post; no causal identification; Equinox-2020 replication not executed. Full list: `research/limitations.md`. | ||||
| 121 | + | ||||
| 122 | +## 📚 Citation | ||||
| 123 | + | ||||
| 124 | +```bibtex | ||||
| 125 | +@techreport{boucher2026wp35, | ||||
| 126 | + author = {Boucher, Simon-Pierre}, | ||||
| 127 | + title = {The Social Compression Hypothesis: A Pre-Registered Test of Coordination Demand, Institutional Capacity, and Instability in Historical and Modern Societies}, | ||||
| 128 | + institution = {Universit\'e du Qu\'ebec en Outaouais, D\'epartement des sciences administratives}, | ||||
| 129 | + type = {UQO Working Paper}, | ||||
| 130 | + number = {35}, | ||||
| 131 | + year = {2026}, | ||||
| 132 | + month = {November} | ||||
| 133 | +} | ||||
| 134 | +``` | ||||
| 135 | + | ||||
| 136 | +## 👤 Author & contact | ||||
| 137 | + | ||||
| 138 | +Simon-Pierre Boucher — simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca — Département des sciences administratives, UQO. | ||||
| 139 | + | ||||
| 140 | +## 📝 Notes | ||||
| 141 | + | ||||
| 142 | +Numbering: WP 35 (next free number after WP 34). Category folder `economie/` created for this paper. Adversarial reviews and responses: `docs/reviews/`. Final audit: `results/logs/final_research_audit.md`. | ||||
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| 1 | +\begin{appendices} | ||||
| 2 | + | ||||
| 3 | +\section{Pre-registration summary} | ||||
| 4 | +\label{app:prereg} | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +The analysis plan (\texttt{research/preregistration.md}, SHA-256 \texttt{ecda8804e17f9317\ldots}) was frozen on 2026-11-01 before any association between a predictor and an outcome was computed. It fixes: the five hypotheses and their falsifiers; the units (polity, society, country-year) and the reasons for them (93.7\% of Polaris facts undated; CrisisDB crisis-selected); the disjoint indicator sets for $D$ and $K$ listed in Section~\ref{sec:data-measurement}; the outcomes $Y_1$ (severity share), $Y_{1b}$, $Y_2$ (duration), $Y_3$ (succession), $Y_4$--$Y_6$ (modern events) and the composite; the five-year horizon; the models of Section~\ref{sec:methods}; the baselines and the 80\% fold rule; the Holm correction over three primary tests; the a-priori power computation and its decision rule; the robustness set; and the rule for narrowing the claim. Seven decisions and no post-hoc amendments are recorded in \texttt{research/decisions.md}; the single deviation from the mandate's candidate formula ($K$ standardized rather than logged, because it is a bounded share that can be zero) was recorded before analysis. The use of decade rather than year effects in the forward-chaining folds, so that test years have a fitted level, is noted in the code and in Section~\ref{sec:methods-modern}. | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +\section{Data dictionary (abridged)} | ||||
| 9 | +\label{app:dictionary} | ||||
| 10 | + | ||||
| 11 | +\textbf{Seshat facts} (56,274 rows): sheet, section, region, polity, variable, value (presence codes P/IP $\to 1$, A/IA $\to 0$, disputed $\to 0.5$, SU/blank $\to$ missing; numeric midpoints with bounds), date interval, flags for dated, inferred, disputed, unparsed, uncertain. \textbf{Polity aggregates}: mean, min, max, mean log, bound extremes, counts of facts, dated facts, inferred and disputed facts, per polity and variable; a pre-crisis version per CrisisDB record. \textbf{Polity metadata}: region, macro-region (ten groups fixed in \texttt{configs/regions.yaml}), era block (six), start and end years, midpoint, duration, censoring at 1900, centralization, relationships to preceding and succeeding entities, matched successor and its relationship, discontinuity indicator. \textbf{CrisisDB}: record, polity, start and end years, the 21 consequence codes, the number of instability items coded, the number present, the severity share, the binary severe indicator (defined when the five severe items are all coded), the reform share and the epidemic flag. \textbf{Ethnographic Atlas}: society, coordinates, Glottocode and Glottolog family, region, focal year, EA030--EA034, EA042, EA066--EA068, EA070, EA072--EA073, EA090, EA005, EA028, EA113, community-size midpoint, population, jurisdictional levels. \textbf{Modern panel}: V-Dem identifiers and year, six capacity items, electoral democracy, regime identifiers and end types, civil war, coups, population and GDP per capita from Maddison (ISO3 merge; 39 unmatched V-Dem entities listed in the crosswalk file), derived event indicators and windows. The full dictionary with counts is \url{data/metadata/data_dictionary.md}. | ||||
| 12 | + | ||||
| 13 | +\section{Additional measurement detail} | ||||
| 14 | +\label{app:measurement} | ||||
| 15 | + | ||||
| 16 | +Item parameters of the two-parameter model are listed in \url{results/empirical/measurement_irt_item_parameters.csv}. Five record-keeping items (written record, script, lists and tables, calendar, practical literature) reach the discrimination ceiling because they are coded almost jointly in Seshat; the latent score is therefore dominated by the writing cluster, which is why the transparent block mean is the primary index. Figure~\ref{fig:irt} compares item difficulties estimated on the Old World and on the Americas and Oceania. Figure~\ref{fig:trajectories} shows the mismatch index over time by macro-region and the raw relation between pre-crisis mismatch and crisis severity. | ||||
| 17 | + | ||||
| 18 | +\begin{figure}[H] | ||||
| 19 | +\centering | ||||
| 20 | +\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{figures/fig_irt_invariance.pdf} | ||||
| 21 | +\caption{Item difficulties from two-parameter models fitted separately on Old-World polities and on the Americas and Oceania.} | ||||
| 22 | +\label{fig:irt} | ||||
| 23 | +\end{figure} | ||||
| 24 | + | ||||
| 25 | +\begin{figure}[H] | ||||
| 26 | +\centering | ||||
| 27 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_trajectories.pdf} | ||||
| 28 | +\caption{Left: mismatch index $P$ against polity midpoint year, by macro-region. Right: crisis severity against pre-crisis $P$ for the 127 CrisisDB records with a defined index, with the least-squares line.} | ||||
| 29 | +\label{fig:trajectories} | ||||
| 30 | +\end{figure} | ||||
| 31 | + | ||||
| 32 | +\section{Simulation scaling table} | ||||
| 33 | +\label{app:sim} | ||||
| 34 | + | ||||
| 35 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 36 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 37 | +\caption{\SIM\ Means by regime and $N$ over all main-design cells without shocks (administrative capacity ratio 2).} | ||||
| 38 | +\begin{tabular}{l r r r r r r r} | ||||
| 39 | +\toprule | ||||
| 40 | +Regime & $N$ & Success & Msgs/task & Bits/task & Bits/success (set-up) & Welfare/agent & Gini \\ | ||||
| 41 | +\midrule | ||||
| 42 | +\input tables/tab_sim_scaling | ||||
| 43 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 44 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 45 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 46 | + | ||||
| 47 | +\section{Replication guide} | ||||
| 48 | +\label{app:replication} | ||||
| 49 | + | ||||
| 50 | +The package is a Python 3.12 project with pinned dependencies. From a clean clone: | ||||
| 51 | +\begin{verbatim} | ||||
| 52 | +uv venv -p 3.12 .venv && uv pip install -p .venv/bin/python -e . | ||||
| 53 | +make fetch # 9 raw sources, SHA-256 verified | ||||
| 54 | +make data # three panels + diagnostics | ||||
| 55 | +make measure # D, K, P, IRT, invariance, power | ||||
| 56 | +make econ # H1, H2, H4, H5, robustness | ||||
| 57 | +make sim # 6,048 + 584 runs and analysis | ||||
| 58 | +make figures # all tables and figures | ||||
| 59 | +make paper # latexmk -> paper/main.pdf | ||||
| 60 | +make test # unit and integration tests | ||||
| 61 | +\end{verbatim} | ||||
| 62 | +Seeds are fixed (20261101 for the estimation code, 0--7 for the simulations); raw files are not redistributed because of the D-PLACE and V-Dem licences, but the registry allows byte-level verification of a fresh download. The execution log (\url{results/logs/execution_log.md}) records every command and every correction made during the study, and the final audit (\url{results/logs/final_research_audit.md}) lists completed, failed and blocked tasks. | ||||
| 63 | + | ||||
| 64 | +\end{appendices} | ||||
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| 1 | % ============================================================================ | 1 | % ============================================================================ | ||
| 2 | −% UQO Working Paper Template — Economics / Finance | 2 | +% UQO Working Paper No. 35 — The Social Compression Hypothesis | ||
| 3 | +% Built on the UQO working-paper template (_modele-working-paper). Compile: latexmk -pdf main.tex | ||||
| 3 | % ============================================================================ | 4 | % ============================================================================ | ||
| 4 | \documentclass[12pt,letterpaper]{article} | 5 | \documentclass[12pt,letterpaper]{article} | ||
| 5 | 6 | ||||
| 6 | −% --- Encoding & Language --- | ||||
| 7 | \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} | 7 | \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} | ||
| 8 | \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} | 8 | \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} | ||
| 9 | \usepackage[english]{babel} | 9 | \usepackage[english]{babel} | ||
| 10 | − | 10 | +\usepackage[letterpaper,top=1in,bottom=1in,left=1in,right=1in]{geometry} | ||
| 11 | −% --- Page Layout --- | 11 | +\usepackage{mathptmx} | ||
| 12 | −\usepackage[ | 12 | +\usepackage{microtype} | ||
| 13 | − letterpaper, | ||||
| 14 | − top=1in, | ||||
| 15 | − bottom=1in, | ||||
| 16 | − left=1in, | ||||
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| 18 | −]{geometry} | ||||
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| 20 | −% --- Typography --- | ||||
| 21 | −\usepackage{mathptmx} % Times-like font (text + math) | ||||
| 22 | −\usepackage{microtype} % Improved typographic refinements | ||||
| 23 | \usepackage{setspace} | 13 | \usepackage{setspace} | ||
| 24 | −\onehalfspacing % 1.5 line spacing | 14 | +\onehalfspacing | ||
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| 26 | −% --- Math --- | ||||
| 27 | \usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsthm} | 15 | \usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsthm} | ||
| 28 | − | ||||
| 29 | −% --- Tables --- | ||||
| 30 | \usepackage{booktabs} | 16 | \usepackage{booktabs} | ||
| 31 | \usepackage{tabularx} | 17 | \usepackage{tabularx} | ||
| 32 | \usepackage{multirow} | 18 | \usepackage{multirow} | ||
| 33 | \usepackage{threeparttable} | 19 | \usepackage{threeparttable} | ||
| 34 | −\usepackage{siunitx} | 20 | +\usepackage{longtable} | ||
| 35 | −\sisetup{ | 21 | +\usepackage{array} | ||
| 36 | − input-symbols = {()}, | ||||
| 37 | − table-format = -1.3, | ||||
| 38 | − parse-numbers = false | ||||
| 39 | −} | ||||
| 40 | − | ||||
| 41 | −% --- Figures --- | ||||
| 42 | \usepackage{graphicx} | 22 | \usepackage{graphicx} | ||
| 43 | \usepackage{subcaption} | 23 | \usepackage{subcaption} | ||
| 44 | \usepackage{float} | 24 | \usepackage{float} | ||
| 45 | − | 25 | +\usepackage{rotating} | ||
| 46 | −% --- Colors & Links --- | ||||
| 47 | \usepackage[dvipsnames]{xcolor} | 26 | \usepackage[dvipsnames]{xcolor} | ||
| 48 | −\usepackage[ | 27 | +\usepackage{url} | ||
| 49 | − colorlinks = true, | ||||
| 50 | − linkcolor = NavyBlue, | ||||
| 51 | − citecolor = NavyBlue, | ||||
| 52 | − urlcolor = NavyBlue, | ||||
| 53 | − breaklinks = true | ||||
| 54 | −]{hyperref} | ||||
| 55 | − | ||||
| 56 | −% --- Bibliography --- | ||||
| 57 | \usepackage[authoryear,round,semicolon]{natbib} | 28 | \usepackage[authoryear,round,semicolon]{natbib} | ||
| 58 | \bibliographystyle{aer} | 29 | \bibliographystyle{aer} | ||
| 59 | − | 30 | +\usepackage[font=small,labelfont=bf,labelsep=period,justification=justified,singlelinecheck=false]{caption} | ||
| 60 | −% --- Captions --- | ||||
| 61 | −\usepackage[ | ||||
| 62 | − font = small, | ||||
| 63 | − labelfont = bf, | ||||
| 64 | − labelsep = period, | ||||
| 65 | − justification = justified, | ||||
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| 67 | −]{caption} | ||||
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| 69 | −% --- Headers & Footers --- | ||||
| 70 | \usepackage{fancyhdr} | 31 | \usepackage{fancyhdr} | ||
| 71 | \pagestyle{fancy} | 32 | \pagestyle{fancy} | ||
| 72 | \fancyhf{} | 33 | \fancyhf{} | ||
| 73 | \renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt} | 34 | \renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt} | ||
| 74 | \fancyfoot[C]{\thepage} | 35 | \fancyfoot[C]{\thepage} | ||
| 75 | − | ||||
| 76 | −% --- Section Formatting --- | ||||
| 77 | \usepackage{titlesec} | 36 | \usepackage{titlesec} | ||
| 78 | \titleformat{\section}{\large\bfseries}{\thesection.}{0.5em}{} | 37 | \titleformat{\section}{\large\bfseries}{\thesection.}{0.5em}{} | ||
| 79 | \titleformat{\subsection}{\normalsize\bfseries}{\thesubsection.}{0.5em}{} | 38 | \titleformat{\subsection}{\normalsize\bfseries}{\thesubsection.}{0.5em}{} | ||
| 80 | \titleformat{\subsubsection}{\normalsize\itshape}{\thesubsubsection.}{0.5em}{} | 39 | \titleformat{\subsubsection}{\normalsize\itshape}{\thesubsubsection.}{0.5em}{} | ||
| 81 | − | ||||
| 82 | −% --- Appendix Support --- | ||||
| 83 | \usepackage[toc,page]{appendix} | 40 | \usepackage[toc,page]{appendix} | ||
| 84 | − | ||||
| 85 | −% --- Misc --- | ||||
| 86 | \usepackage{enumitem} | 41 | \usepackage{enumitem} | ||
| 87 | \setlist{nosep,leftmargin=*} | 42 | \setlist{nosep,leftmargin=*} | ||
| 43 | +\usepackage{amsthm} | ||||
| 44 | +\theoremstyle{plain} | ||||
| 45 | +\newtheorem{theorem}{Theorem} | ||||
| 46 | +\newtheorem{corollary}{Corollary} | ||||
| 47 | +\newtheorem{proposition}{Proposition} | ||||
| 48 | +\newtheorem{conjecture}{Conjecture} | ||||
| 49 | +\theoremstyle{definition} | ||||
| 50 | +\newtheorem{definition}{Definition} | ||||
| 51 | +\newtheorem{assumption}{Assumption} | ||||
| 52 | +\newcommand{\EMP}{\textsc{[empirical]}} | ||||
| 53 | +\newcommand{\SIM}{\textsc{[simulated]}} | ||||
| 54 | +\newcommand{\CONJ}{\textsc{[conjecture]}} | ||||
| 55 | +\newcommand{\PROP}{\textsc{[proposition]}} | ||||
| 56 | +\newcolumntype{L}[1]{>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{#1}} | ||||
| 88 | 57 | ||||
| 89 | % ============================================================================ | 58 | % ============================================================================ | ||
| 90 | −% METADATA — Edit these fields for each working paper | 59 | +% METADATA | ||
| 91 | % ============================================================================ | 60 | % ============================================================================ | ||
| 92 | −\newcommand{\WPnumber}{XX} | 61 | +\newcommand{\WPnumber}{35} | ||
| 93 | −\newcommand{\WPtitle}{Your Working Paper Title Here} | 62 | +\newcommand{\WPtitle}{The Social Compression Hypothesis} | ||
| 94 | −\newcommand{\WPsubtitle}{} % Leave empty if no subtitle | 63 | +\newcommand{\WPsubtitle}{A Pre-Registered Test of Coordination Demand, Institutional Capacity, and Instability in Historical and Modern Societies, with a Formal Framework and Agent-Based Experiments} | ||
| 95 | −\newcommand{\WPdate}{\today} | 64 | +\newcommand{\WPdate}{November 2026} | ||
| 96 | \newcommand{\WPversion}{1.0} | 65 | \newcommand{\WPversion}{1.0} | ||
| 97 | \newcommand{\WPabstract}{% | 66 | \newcommand{\WPabstract}{% | ||
| 98 | − This paper examines \ldots{} | 67 | +Institutions, standards, records and administrative hierarchies can be read as devices that lower the communication cost of coordinating many people: a form of compression. This paper states that reading formally, derives what it does and does not imply, and tests its empirical corollary---that a mismatch between a society's coordination demand (population, territory, settlement structure) and its coordination capacity (administration, standardized rules and money, communication infrastructure, record-keeping) predicts subsequent instability---under a frozen pre-registration. We build demand, capacity and mismatch indices from the Seshat Polaris-2026 databank (626 polities; 127 CrisisDB crisis records with pre-crisis predictors), the Ethnographic Atlas (1,291 societies) and a V-Dem--Maddison country-year panel (14,637 country-years, 2,692 instability events, 1820--2025), with a transparent block index and a latent-variable alternative, uncertainty propagation and out-of-sample validation. Capacity and scale are positively associated in all three datasets (\EMP). The mismatch index is positively associated with crisis severity in Seshat ($0.20$ log-odds per SD, stable across regions and eras) and with instability onsets in modern states ($0.40$ per SD), but by the pre-registered criterion it fails: it does not beat the scale-only baseline out of sample in Seshat, nor the capacity-only baseline in the modern panel; a placebo index performs comparably; the modern association is as strong with past as with future events; and an Oster adjustment reverses its sign. No threshold is found in Seshat and only a negligible nonlinearity in the modern panel. Five theorems make the compression reading precise (coding gain, break-even scale, stale-code penalty, hierarchical routing, backlog dynamics), and factorial agent-based experiments (6,048 runs, five imposed institutional regimes) confirm them in silico while locating the regimes where institutions hurt: unpaid set-up costs, saturated hierarchies, and weakly structured task environments (\SIM). We conclude that the compression framework is coherent and simulable, that scale and capacity each matter, but that their mismatch, as measurable in existing historical data, carries no identifiable predictive content of its own. The universal theory is not supported; the narrower results are stated with their scope.% | ||
| 99 | − We find that \ldots{} | ||||
| 100 | − Our results suggest \ldots{} | ||||
| 101 | − These findings contribute to the literature on \ldots{} | ||||
| 102 | } | 68 | } | ||
| 103 | −\newcommand{\WPkeywords}{Keyword 1, Keyword 2, Keyword 3, Keyword 4} | 69 | +\newcommand{\WPkeywords}{institutions, coordination, state capacity, social complexity, Seshat, pre-registration, agent-based simulation, information theory} | ||
| 104 | −\newcommand{\WPjel}{G12, G14, C58} | 70 | +\newcommand{\WPjel}{D02, D83, H11, N40, P48, C63} | ||
| 105 | − | ||||
| 106 | −% --- Author --- | ||||
| 107 | \newcommand{\WPauthor}{Simon-Pierre Boucher} | 71 | \newcommand{\WPauthor}{Simon-Pierre Boucher} | ||
| 108 | −\newcommand{\WPaffiliation}{% | 72 | +\newcommand{\WPaffiliation}{Département des sciences administratives\\Université du Québec en Outaouais} | ||
| 109 | − Département des sciences administratives\\ | ||||
| 110 | − Université du Québec en Outaouais% | ||||
| 111 | −} | ||||
| 112 | \newcommand{\WPemail}{simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca} | 73 | \newcommand{\WPemail}{simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca} | ||
| 113 | −\newcommand{\WPaddress}{% | 74 | +\newcommand{\WPaddress}{Gatineau -- Pavillon Alexandre-Taché\\283, boulevard Alexandre-Taché\\Gatineau, Québec, Canada J9A 1L8} | ||
| 114 | − Gatineau -- Pavillon Alexandre-Taché\\ | 75 | +\usepackage[colorlinks=true,linkcolor=NavyBlue,citecolor=NavyBlue,urlcolor=NavyBlue,breaklinks=true]{hyperref} | ||
| 115 | − 283, boulevard Alexandre-Taché\\ | 76 | +\hypersetup{pdftitle={The Social Compression Hypothesis: A Pre-Registered Test of Coordination Demand, Institutional Capacity, and Instability},pdfauthor={Simon-Pierre Boucher}} | ||
| 116 | − Gatineau, Québec, Canada J9A 1L8% | ||||
| 117 | −} | ||||
| 118 | 77 | ||||
| 119 | −% ============================================================================ | ||||
| 120 | −% DOCUMENT | ||||
| 121 | −% ============================================================================ | ||||
| 122 | \begin{document} | 78 | \begin{document} | ||
| 123 | − | ||||
| 124 | −% --- Title Page --- | ||||
| 125 | \input{sections/titlepage} | 79 | \input{sections/titlepage} | ||
| 126 | − | ||||
| 127 | −% --- Main Body --- | ||||
| 128 | \input{sections/introduction} | 80 | \input{sections/introduction} | ||
| 129 | \input{sections/literature} | 81 | \input{sections/literature} | ||
| 82 | +\input{sections/theory} | ||||
| 130 | \input{sections/data} | 83 | \input{sections/data} | ||
| 131 | −\input{sections/methodology} | 84 | +\input{sections/methods} | ||
| 132 | −\input{sections/results} | 85 | +\input{sections/results_historical} | ||
| 133 | −\input{sections/robustness} | 86 | +\input{sections/results_modern} | ||
| 87 | +\input{sections/simulation} | ||||
| 88 | +\input{sections/synthesis} | ||||
| 89 | +\input{sections/limitations} | ||||
| 134 | \input{sections/conclusion} | 90 | \input{sections/conclusion} | ||
| 135 | − | ||||
| 136 | −% --- References --- | ||||
| 137 | \newpage | 91 | \newpage | ||
| 138 | \bibliography{references} | 92 | \bibliography{references} | ||
| 139 | − | ||||
| 140 | −% --- Appendix --- | ||||
| 141 | \input{appendix/appendix} | 93 | \input{appendix/appendix} | ||
| 142 | − | ||||
| 143 | \end{document} | 94 | \end{document} | ||
modified
paper/references.bib
+176 −149
@@ -1,12 +1,10 @@ | |||||
| 1 | −% Generated by src/wp35/validation/build_bib.py from Crossref (by DOI) and verified manual entries. | 1 | +@article{acemoglu2001, title={The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation}, volume={91}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369}, DOI={10.1257/aer.91.5.1369}, number={5}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Acemoglu, Daron and Johnson, Simon and Robinson, James A}, year={2001}, pages={1369--1401} } | ||
| 2 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | −@article{acemoglu2001, title={The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation}, volume={91}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369}, DOI={10.1257/aer.91.5.1369}, number={5}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Acemoglu, Daron and Johnson, Simon and Robinson, James A}, year={2001}, month=Dec, pages={1369–1401} } | 3 | +@article{ahmed2020, title={Origins of Early Democracy}, volume={114}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055419000741}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055419000741}, number={2}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={AHMED, ALI T. and STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2020}, pages={502--518} } | ||
| 4 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | −@article{ahmed2020, title={Origins of Early Democracy}, volume={114}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055419000741}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055419000741}, number={2}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={AHMED, ALI T. and STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2020}, month=Jan, pages={502–518} } | 5 | +@article{alberti2014, title={Modeling Group Size and Scalar Stress by Logistic Regression from an Archaeological Perspective}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091510}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0091510}, number={3}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Alberti, Gianmarco}, editor={Sánchez, Angel}, year={2014}, pages={e91510} } | ||
| 6 | 6 | ||||
| 7 | −@article{alberti2014, title={Modeling Group Size and Scalar Stress by Logistic Regression from an Archaeological Perspective}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091510}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0091510}, number={3}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Alberti, Gianmarco}, editor={Sánchez, Angel}, year={2014}, month=Mar, pages={e91510} } | 7 | +@article{angeletos2007, title={Efficient Use of Information and Social Value of Information}, volume={75}, ISSN={1468-0262}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00783.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00783.x}, number={4}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={The Econometric Society}, author={Angeletos, George-Marios and Pavan, Alessandro}, year={2007}, pages={1103--1142} } | ||
| 8 | − | ||||
| 9 | −@article{angeletos2007, title={Efficient Use of Information and Socialï؟½Valueï؟½ofï؟½Information}, volume={75}, ISSN={1468-0262}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00783.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00783.x}, number={4}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={The Econometric Society}, author={Angeletos, George-Marios and Pavan, Alessandro}, year={2007}, month=July, pages={1103–1142} } | ||||
| 10 | 8 | ||||
| 11 | @book{arrow1974, | 9 | @book{arrow1974, | ||
| 12 | author = {Arrow, Kenneth J.}, | 10 | author = {Arrow, Kenneth J.}, | ||
@@ -16,11 +14,11 @@ | |||||
| 16 | year = {1974} | 14 | year = {1974} | ||
| 17 | } | 15 | } | ||
| 18 | 16 | ||||
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| 20 | 18 | ||||
| 21 | −@article{beck1998, title={Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable}, volume={42}, ISSN={0092-5853}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2991857}, DOI={10.2307/2991857}, number={4}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Beck, Nathaniel and Katz, Jonathan N. and Tucker, Richard}, year={1998}, month=Oct, pages={1260} } | 19 | +@article{beck1998, title={Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable}, volume={42}, ISSN={0092-5853}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2991857}, DOI={10.2307/2991857}, number={4}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Beck, Nathaniel and Katz, Jonathan N. and Tucker, Richard}, year={1998}, pages={1260} } | ||
| 22 | 20 | ||||
| 23 | −@article{beheim2021, title={Treatment of missing data determined conclusions regarding moralizing gods}, volume={595}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03655-4}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-021-03655-4}, number={7866}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Beheim, Bret and Atkinson, Quentin D. and Bulbulia, Joseph and Gervais, Will and Gray, Russell D. and Henrich, Joseph and Lang, Martin and Monroe, M. Willis and Muthukrishna, Michael and Norenzayan, Ara and Purzycki, Benjamin Grant and Shariff, Azim and Slingerland, Edward and Spicer, Rachel and Willard, Aiyana K.}, year={2021}, month=July, pages={E29–E34} } | 21 | +@article{beheim2021, title={Treatment of missing data determined conclusions regarding moralizing gods}, volume={595}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03655-4}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-021-03655-4}, number={7866}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Beheim, Bret and Atkinson, Quentin D. and Bulbulia, Joseph and Gervais, Will and Gray, Russell D. and Henrich, Joseph and Lang, Martin and Monroe, M. Willis and Muthukrishna, Michael and Norenzayan, Ara and Purzycki, Benjamin Grant and Shariff, Azim and Slingerland, Edward and Spicer, Rachel and Willard, Aiyana K.}, year={2021}, pages={E29--E34} } | ||
| 24 | 22 | ||||
| 25 | @book{beniger1986, | 23 | @book{beniger1986, | ||
| 26 | author = {Beniger, James R.}, | 24 | author = {Beniger, James R.}, | ||
@@ -30,27 +28,27 @@ | |||||
| 30 | year = {1986} | 28 | year = {1986} | ||
| 31 | } | 29 | } | ||
| 32 | 30 | ||||
| 33 | −@article{besley2009, title={The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics}, volume={99}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.4.1218}, DOI={10.1257/aer.99.4.1218}, number={4}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Besley, Timothy and Persson, Torsten}, year={2009}, month=Aug, pages={1218–1244} } | 31 | +@article{besley2009, title={The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics}, volume={99}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.4.1218}, DOI={10.1257/aer.99.4.1218}, number={4}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Besley, Timothy and Persson, Torsten}, year={2009}, pages={1218--1244} } | ||
| 34 | 32 | ||||
| 35 | −@book{besley2011, title={Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters}, ISBN={9781400840526}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691152684.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691152684.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Besley, Timothy and Persson, Torsten}, year={2011}, month=Aug } | 33 | +@book{besley2011, title={Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters}, ISBN={9781400840526}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691152684.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691152684.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Besley, Timothy and Persson, Torsten}, year={2011}} | ||
| 36 | 34 | ||||
| 37 | −@article{bettencourt2007, title={Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities}, volume={104}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610172104}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.0610172104}, number={17}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Bettencourt, Luís M. A. and Lobo, José and Helbing, Dirk and Kühnert, Christian and West, Geoffrey B.}, year={2007}, month=Apr, pages={7301–7306} } | 35 | +@article{bettencourt2007, title={Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities}, volume={104}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610172104}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.0610172104}, number={17}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Bettencourt, Luís M. A. and Lobo, José and Helbing, Dirk and Kühnert, Christian and West, Geoffrey B.}, year={2007}, pages={7301--7306} } | ||
| 38 | 36 | ||||
| 39 | −@article{bettencourt2013, title={The Origins of Scaling in Cities}, volume={340}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1235823}, DOI={10.1126/science.1235823}, number={6139}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Bettencourt, Luís M. A.}, year={2013}, month=June, pages={1438–1441} } | 37 | +@article{bettencourt2013, title={The Origins of Scaling in Cities}, volume={340}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1235823}, DOI={10.1126/science.1235823}, number={6139}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Bettencourt, Luís M. A.}, year={2013}, pages={1438--1441} } | ||
| 40 | 38 | ||||
| 41 | @book{blanton2008, title={Collective Action in the Formation of Pre-Modern States}, ISBN={9780387738772}, ISSN={1567-8040}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-73877-2}, DOI={10.1007/978-0-387-73877-2}, journal={Fundamental Issues in Archaeology}, publisher={Springer New York}, author={Blanton, Richard and Fargher, Lane}, year={2008} } | 39 | @book{blanton2008, title={Collective Action in the Formation of Pre-Modern States}, ISBN={9780387738772}, ISSN={1567-8040}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-73877-2}, DOI={10.1007/978-0-387-73877-2}, journal={Fundamental Issues in Archaeology}, publisher={Springer New York}, author={Blanton, Richard and Fargher, Lane}, year={2008} } | ||
| 42 | 40 | ||||
| 43 | −@article{blaydes2013, title={The Feudal Revolution and Europe’s Rise: Political Divergence of the Christian West and the Muslim World before 1500 CE}, volume={107}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055412000561}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055412000561}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={BLAYDES, LISA and CHANEY, ERIC}, year={2013}, month=Jan, pages={16–34} } | 41 | +@article{blaydes2013, title={The Feudal Revolution and Europe’s Rise: Political Divergence of the Christian West and the Muslim World before 1500 CE}, volume={107}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055412000561}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055412000561}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={BLAYDES, LISA and CHANEY, ERIC}, year={2013}, pages={16--34} } | ||
| 44 | 42 | ||||
| 45 | −@misc{bollen1989, title={Structural Equation Models with Observed Variables}, ISBN={9781118619179}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118619179.ch4}, DOI={10.1002/9781118619179.ch4}, journal={Structural Equations with Latent Variables}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Bollen, Kenneth A.}, year={1989}, month=Apr, pages={80–150} } | 43 | +@misc{bollen1989, title={Structural Equation Models with Observed Variables}, ISBN={9781118619179}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118619179.ch4}, DOI={10.1002/9781118619179.ch4}, journal={Structural Equations with Latent Variables}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Bollen, Kenneth A.}, year={1989}, pages={80--150} } | ||
| 46 | 44 | ||||
| 47 | −@article{bolt2024, title={Maddison‐style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update}, volume={39}, ISSN={1467-6419}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618}, DOI={10.1111/joes.12618}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economic Surveys}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Bolt, Jutta and van Zanden, Jan Luiten}, year={2024}, month=Apr, pages={631–671} } | 45 | +@article{bolt2024, title={Maddison‐style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update}, volume={39}, ISSN={1467-6419}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618}, DOI={10.1111/joes.12618}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economic Surveys}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Bolt, Jutta and van Zanden, Jan Luiten}, year={2024}, pages={631--671} } | ||
| 48 | 46 | ||||
| 49 | −@article{bolton1994, title={The Firm as a Communication Network}, volume={109}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2118349}, DOI={10.2307/2118349}, number={4}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Bolton, P. and Dewatripont, M.}, year={1994}, month=Nov, pages={809–839} } | 47 | +@article{bolton1994, title={The Firm as a Communication Network}, volume={109}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2118349}, DOI={10.2307/2118349}, number={4}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Bolton, P. and Dewatripont, M.}, year={1994}, pages={809--839} } | ||
| 50 | 48 | ||||
| 51 | −@article{borcan2018, title={State history and economic development: evidence from six millennia}, volume={23}, ISSN={1573-7020}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-017-9152-0}, DOI={10.1007/s10887-017-9152-0}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Growth}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Borcan, Oana and Olsson, Ola and Putterman, Louis}, year={2017}, month=Dec, pages={1–40} } | 49 | +@article{borcan2018, title={State history and economic development: evidence from six millennia}, volume={23}, ISSN={1573-7020}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-017-9152-0}, DOI={10.1007/s10887-017-9152-0}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Growth}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Borcan, Oana and Olsson, Ola and Putterman, Louis}, year={2017}, pages={1--40} } | ||
| 52 | 50 | ||||
| 53 | −@book{boxsteffensmeier2004, title={Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists}, ISBN={9780511790874}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511790874}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511790874}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S.}, year={2004}, month=Mar } | 51 | +@book{boxsteffensmeier2004, title={Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists}, ISBN={9780511790874}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511790874}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511790874}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S.}, year={2004}} | ||
| 54 | 52 | ||||
| 55 | @book{boyd1985, | 53 | @book{boyd1985, | ||
| 56 | author = {Boyd, Robert and Richerson, Peter J.}, | 54 | author = {Boyd, Robert and Richerson, Peter J.}, | ||
@@ -60,23 +58,23 @@ | |||||
| 60 | year = {1985} | 58 | year = {1985} | ||
| 61 | } | 59 | } | ||
| 62 | 60 | ||||
| 63 | −@article{boyd1988, title={The evolution of reciprocity in sizable groups}, volume={132}, ISSN={0022-5193}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0022-5193(88)80219-4}, DOI={10.1016/s0022-5193(88)80219-4}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Theoretical Biology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Boyd, Robert and Richerson, Peter J.}, year={1988}, month=June, pages={337–356} } | 61 | +@article{boyd1988, title={The evolution of reciprocity in sizable groups}, volume={132}, ISSN={0022-5193}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0022-5193(88)80219-4}, DOI={10.1016/s0022-5193(88)80219-4}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Theoretical Biology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Boyd, Robert and Richerson, Peter J.}, year={1988}, pages={337--356} } | ||
| 64 | 62 | ||||
| 65 | −@article{brambor2020, title={The Lay of the Land: Information Capacity and the Modern State}, volume={53}, ISSN={1552-3829}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414019843432}, DOI={10.1177/0010414019843432}, number={2}, journal={Comparative Political Studies}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Brambor, Thomas and Goenaga, Agustín and Lindvall, Johannes and Teorell, Jan}, year={2019}, month=May, pages={175–213} } | 63 | +@article{brambor2020, title={The Lay of the Land: Information Capacity and the Modern State}, volume={53}, ISSN={1552-3829}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414019843432}, DOI={10.1177/0010414019843432}, number={2}, journal={Comparative Political Studies}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Brambor, Thomas and Goenaga, Agustín and Lindvall, Johannes and Teorell, Jan}, year={2019}, pages={175--213} } | ||
| 66 | 64 | ||||
| 67 | −@article{butzer2012, title={Collapse, environment, and society}, volume={109}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1114845109}, number={10}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Butzer, Karl W.}, year={2012}, month=Feb, pages={3632–3639} } | 65 | +@article{butzer2012, title={Collapse, environment, and society}, volume={109}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1114845109}, number={10}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Butzer, Karl W.}, year={2012}, pages={3632--3639} } | ||
| 68 | 66 | ||||
| 69 | −@article{calvoarmengol2015, title={Communication and influence: Communication and influence}, volume={10}, ISSN={1933-6837}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/te1468}, DOI={10.3982/te1468}, number={2}, journal={Theoretical Economics}, publisher={The Econometric Society}, author={Calvó-Armengol, Antoni and de Martí, Joan and Prat, Andrea}, year={2015}, month=May, pages={649–690} } | 67 | +@article{calvoarmengol2015, title={Communication and influence: Communication and influence}, volume={10}, ISSN={1933-6837}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/te1468}, DOI={10.3982/te1468}, number={2}, journal={Theoretical Economics}, publisher={The Econometric Society}, author={Calvó-Armengol, Antoni and de Martí, Joan and Prat, Andrea}, year={2015}, pages={649--690} } | ||
| 70 | 68 | ||||
| 71 | −@article{cameron2015, title={A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference}, volume={50}, ISSN={1548-8004}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317}, DOI={10.3368/jhr.50.2.317}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Human Resources}, publisher={University of Wisconsin Press}, author={Colin Cameron, A. and Miller, Douglas L.}, year={2015}, pages={317–372} } | 69 | +@article{cameron2015, title={A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference}, volume={50}, ISSN={1548-8004}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317}, DOI={10.3368/jhr.50.2.317}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Human Resources}, publisher={University of Wisconsin Press}, author={Colin Cameron, A. and Miller, Douglas L.}, year={2015}, pages={317--372} } | ||
| 72 | 70 | ||||
| 73 | −@article{carneiro1967, title={On the Relationship between Size of Population and Complexity of Social Organization}, volume={23}, ISSN={0038-4801}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/soutjanth.23.3.3629251}, DOI={10.1086/soutjanth.23.3.3629251}, number={3}, journal={Southwestern Journal of Anthropology}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Carneiro, Robert L.}, year={1967}, month=Oct, pages={234–243} } | 71 | +@article{carneiro1967, title={On the Relationship between Size of Population and Complexity of Social Organization}, volume={23}, ISSN={0038-4801}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/soutjanth.23.3.3629251}, DOI={10.1086/soutjanth.23.3.3629251}, number={3}, journal={Southwestern Journal of Anthropology}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Carneiro, Robert L.}, year={1967}, pages={234--243} } | ||
| 74 | 72 | ||||
| 75 | −@article{carneiro1970, title={A Theory of the Origin of the State: Traditional theories of state origins are considered and rejected in favor of a new ecological hypothesis.}, volume={169}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.169.3947.733}, DOI={10.1126/science.169.3947.733}, number={3947}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Carneiro, Robert L.}, year={1970}, month=Aug, pages={733–738} } | 73 | +@article{carneiro1970, title={A Theory of the Origin of the State: Traditional theories of state origins are considered and rejected in favor of a new ecological hypothesis.}, volume={169}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.169.3947.733}, DOI={10.1126/science.169.3947.733}, number={3947}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Carneiro, Robert L.}, year={1970}, pages={733--738} } | ||
| 76 | 74 | ||||
| 77 | −@article{carter2010, title={Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data}, volume={18}, ISSN={1476-4989}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq013}, DOI={10.1093/pan/mpq013}, number={3}, journal={Political Analysis}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Carter, David B. and Signorino, Curtis S.}, year={2010}, pages={271–292} } | 75 | +@article{carter2010, title={Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data}, volume={18}, ISSN={1476-4989}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq013}, DOI={10.1093/pan/mpq013}, number={3}, journal={Political Analysis}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Carter, David B. and Signorino, Curtis S.}, year={2010}, pages={271--292} } | ||
| 78 | 76 | ||||
| 79 | −@article{cederman2003, title={Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles}, volume={97}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055403000571}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055403000571}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={CEDERMAN, LARS-ERIK}, year={2003}, month=Feb, pages={135–150} } | 77 | +@article{cederman2003, title={Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles}, volume={97}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055403000571}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055403000571}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={CEDERMAN, LARS-ERIK}, year={2003}, pages={135--150} } | ||
| 80 | 78 | ||||
| 81 | @book{chandler1977, | 79 | @book{chandler1977, | ||
| 82 | author = {Chandler, Alfred D.}, | 80 | author = {Chandler, Alfred D.}, | ||
@@ -86,49 +84,55 @@ | |||||
| 86 | year = {1977} | 84 | year = {1977} | ||
| 87 | } | 85 | } | ||
| 88 | 86 | ||||
| 89 | −@article{chwe2000, title={Communication and Coordination in Social Networks}, volume={67}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00118}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00118}, number={1}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Chwe, Michael Suk-Young}, year={2000}, month=Jan, pages={1–16} } | 87 | +@article{chwe2000, title={Communication and Coordination in Social Networks}, volume={67}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00118}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00118}, number={1}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Chwe, Michael Suk-Young}, year={2000}, pages={1--16} } | ||
| 90 | 88 | ||||
| 91 | −@book{chwe2001, title={Rational Ritual: Culture, Coordination, and Common Knowledge}, ISBN={9781400846436}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691158280.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691158280.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Chwe, Michael Suk-Young}, year={2013}, month=Apr } | 89 | +@book{chwe2001, | ||
| 90 | + author = {Chwe, Michael Suk-Young}, | ||||
| 91 | + title = {Rational Ritual: Culture, Coordination, and Common Knowledge}, | ||||
| 92 | + publisher = {Princeton University Press}, | ||||
| 93 | + address = {Princeton}, | ||||
| 94 | + year = {2001} | ||||
| 95 | +} | ||||
| 92 | 96 | ||||
| 93 | −@article{cinelli2020, title={Making Sense of Sensitivity: Extending Omitted Variable Bias}, volume={82}, ISSN={1467-9868}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12348}, DOI={10.1111/rssb.12348}, number={1}, journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cinelli, Carlos and Hazlett, Chad}, year={2019}, month=Dec, pages={39–67} } | 97 | +@article{cinelli2020, title={Making Sense of Sensitivity: Extending Omitted Variable Bias}, volume={82}, ISSN={1467-9868}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12348}, DOI={10.1111/rssb.12348}, number={1}, journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cinelli, Carlos and Hazlett, Chad}, year={2019}, pages={39--67} } | ||
| 94 | 98 | ||||
| 95 | −@book{cline2014, title={1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed: The Year Civilization Collapsed}, ISBN={9781400849987}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400849987}, DOI={10.1515/9781400849987}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Cline, Eric H.}, year={2014}, month=Mar } | 99 | +@book{cline2014, title={1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed: The Year Civilization Collapsed}, ISBN={9781400849987}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400849987}, DOI={10.1515/9781400849987}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Cline, Eric H.}, year={2014}} | ||
| 96 | 100 | ||||
| 97 | −@article{coase1937, title={The Nature of the Firm}, volume={4}, ISSN={1468-0335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1937.tb00002.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0335.1937.tb00002.x}, number={16}, journal={Economica}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Coase, R. H.}, year={1937}, month=Nov, pages={386–405} } | 101 | +@article{coase1937, title={The Nature of the Firm}, volume={4}, ISSN={1468-0335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1937.tb00002.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0335.1937.tb00002.x}, number={16}, journal={Economica}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Coase, R. H.}, year={1937}, pages={386--405} } | ||
| 98 | 102 | ||||
| 99 | −@article{conley1999, title={GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence}, volume={92}, ISSN={0304-4076}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(98)00084-0}, DOI={10.1016/s0304-4076(98)00084-0}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Econometrics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Conley, T.G.}, year={1999}, month=Sept, pages={1–45} } | 103 | +@article{conley1999, title={GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence}, volume={92}, ISSN={0304-4076}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(98)00084-0}, DOI={10.1016/s0304-4076(98)00084-0}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Econometrics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Conley, T.G.}, year={1999}, pages={1--45} } | ||
| 100 | 104 | ||||
| 101 | −@book{coppedge2020, title={Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Political Change}, ISBN={9781108440967}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108347860}, DOI={10.1017/9781108347860}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Glynn, Adam and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Pemstein, Daniel and Seim, Brigitte and Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Teorell, Jan and Altman, David and Bernhard, Michael and Bizzarro, Fernando and Krusell, Joshua and Maguire, Matthew and Marquardt, Kyle and McCann, Kelly and Mechkova, Valeriya and Miri, Farhad and Pernes, Josefine and Staton, Jeffrey and Stepanova, Natalia and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wang, Yi-ting}, year={2020}, month=Jan } | 105 | +@book{coppedge2020, title={Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Political Change}, ISBN={9781108440967}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108347860}, DOI={10.1017/9781108347860}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Glynn, Adam and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Pemstein, Daniel and Seim, Brigitte and Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Teorell, Jan and Altman, David and Bernhard, Michael and Bizzarro, Fernando and Krusell, Joshua and Maguire, Matthew and Marquardt, Kyle and McCann, Kelly and Mechkova, Valeriya and Miri, Farhad and Pernes, Josefine and Staton, Jeffrey and Stepanova, Natalia and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wang, Yi-ting}, year={2020}} | ||
| 102 | 106 | ||||
| 103 | −@book{cover2006, title={Elements of Information Theory}, ISBN={9780471748823}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/047174882x}, DOI={10.1002/047174882x}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Cover, Thomas M. and Thomas, Joy A.}, year={2005}, month=Apr } | 107 | +@book{cover2006, title={Elements of Information Theory}, ISBN={9780471748823}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/047174882x}, DOI={10.1002/047174882x}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Cover, Thomas M. and Thomas, Joy A.}, year={2005}} | ||
| 104 | 108 | ||||
| 105 | −@article{cox1972, title={Regression Models and Life-Tables}, volume={34}, ISSN={1467-9868}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x}, number={2}, journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cox, D. R.}, year={1972}, month=Jan, pages={187–202} } | 109 | +@article{cox1972, title={Regression Models and Life-Tables}, volume={34}, ISSN={1467-9868}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x}, number={2}, journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cox, D. R.}, year={1972}, pages={187--202} } | ||
| 106 | 110 | ||||
| 107 | −@article{crawford1982, title={Strategic Information Transmission}, volume={50}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913390}, DOI={10.2307/1913390}, number={6}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Crawford, Vincent P. and Sobel, Joel}, year={1982}, month=Nov, pages={1431} } | 111 | +@article{crawford1982, title={Strategic Information Transmission}, volume={50}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913390}, DOI={10.2307/1913390}, number={6}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Crawford, Vincent P. and Sobel, Joel}, year={1982}, pages={1431} } | ||
| 108 | 112 | ||||
| 109 | −@article{cremer2007, title={Language and the Theory of the Firm}, volume={122}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.1.373}, DOI={10.1162/qjec.122.1.373}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cremer, J. and Garicano, L. and Prat, A.}, year={2007}, month=Feb, pages={373–407} } | 113 | +@article{cremer2007, title={Language and the Theory of the Firm}, volume={122}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.1.373}, DOI={10.1162/qjec.122.1.373}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Cremer, J. and Garicano, L. and Prat, A.}, year={2007}, pages={373--407} } | ||
| 110 | 114 | ||||
| 111 | −@article{currie2010, title={Rise and fall of political complexity in island South-East Asia and the Pacific}, volume={467}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09461}, DOI={10.1038/nature09461}, number={7317}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Currie, Thomas E. and Greenhill, Simon J. and Gray, Russell D. and Hasegawa, Toshikazu and Mace, Ruth}, year={2010}, month=Oct, pages={801–804} } | 115 | +@article{currie2010, title={Rise and fall of political complexity in island South-East Asia and the Pacific}, volume={467}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09461}, DOI={10.1038/nature09461}, number={7317}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Currie, Thomas E. and Greenhill, Simon J. and Gray, Russell D. and Hasegawa, Toshikazu and Mace, Ruth}, year={2010}, pages={801--804} } | ||
| 112 | 116 | ||||
| 113 | −@article{daniels2017, title={Control of finite critical behaviour in a small-scale social system}, volume={8}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14301}, DOI={10.1038/ncomms14301}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Daniels, Bryan C. and Krakauer, David C. and Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2017}, month=Feb } | 117 | +@article{daniels2017, title={Control of finite critical behaviour in a small-scale social system}, volume={8}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14301}, DOI={10.1038/ncomms14301}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Daniels, Bryan C. and Krakauer, David C. and Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2017}} | ||
| 114 | 118 | ||||
| 115 | −@article{darcy2017, title={State First, Then Democracy: Using Cadastral Records to Explain Governmental Performance in Public Goods Provision}, volume={30}, ISSN={1468-0491}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gove.12206}, DOI={10.1111/gove.12206}, number={2}, journal={Governance}, publisher={Wiley}, author={D’Arcy, Michelle and Nistotskaya, Marina}, year={2016}, month=May, pages={193–209} } | 119 | +@article{darcy2017, title={State First, Then Democracy: Using Cadastral Records to Explain Governmental Performance in Public Goods Provision}, volume={30}, ISSN={1468-0491}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gove.12206}, DOI={10.1111/gove.12206}, number={2}, journal={Governance}, publisher={Wiley}, author={D’Arcy, Michelle and Nistotskaya, Marina}, year={2016}, pages={193--209} } | ||
| 116 | 120 | ||||
| 117 | −@inbook{dedeo2017, title={Major Transitions in Political Order}, ISBN={9781316584200}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584200.016}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584200.016}, booktitle={From Matter to Life}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Dedeo, Simon}, year={2017}, month=Feb, pages={393–428} } | 121 | +@incollection{dedeo2017, title={Major Transitions in Political Order}, ISBN={9781316584200}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584200.016}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584200.016}, booktitle={From Matter to Life}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Dedeo, Simon}, year={2017}, pages={393--428} } | ||
| 118 | 122 | ||||
| 119 | −@article{dessein2002, title={Authority and Communication in Organizations}, volume={69}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00227}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00227}, number={4}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Dessein, Wouter}, year={2002}, month=Oct, pages={811–838} } | 123 | +@article{dessein2002, title={Authority and Communication in Organizations}, volume={69}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00227}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00227}, number={4}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Dessein, Wouter}, year={2002}, pages={811--838} } | ||
| 120 | 124 | ||||
| 121 | −@article{dewan2008, title={The Qualities of Leadership: Direction, Communication, and Obfuscation}, volume={102}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055408080234}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055408080234}, number={3}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={DEWAN, TORUN and MYATT, DAVID P.}, year={2008}, month=Aug, pages={351–368} } | 125 | +@article{dewan2008, title={The Qualities of Leadership: Direction, Communication, and Obfuscation}, volume={102}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055408080234}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055408080234}, number={3}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={DEWAN, TORUN and MYATT, DAVID P.}, year={2008}, pages={351--368} } | ||
| 122 | 126 | ||||
| 123 | −@article{dewatripont2005, title={Modes of Communication}, volume={113}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/497999}, DOI={10.1086/497999}, number={6}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Dewatripont, Mathias and Tirole, Jean}, year={2005}, month=Dec, pages={1217–1238} } | 127 | +@article{dewatripont2005, title={Modes of Communication}, volume={113}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/497999}, DOI={10.1086/497999}, number={6}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Dewatripont, Mathias and Tirole, Jean}, year={2005}, pages={1217--1238} } | ||
| 124 | 128 | ||||
| 125 | −@book{dincecco2017, title={State Capacity and Economic Development: Present and Past}, ISBN={9781108439541}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108539913}, DOI={10.1017/9781108539913}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Dincecco, Mark}, year={2017}, month=Oct } | 129 | +@book{dincecco2017, title={State Capacity and Economic Development: Present and Past}, ISBN={9781108439541}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108539913}, DOI={10.1017/9781108539913}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Dincecco, Mark}, year={2017}} | ||
| 126 | 130 | ||||
| 127 | −@article{dincecco2018, title={Violent Conflict and Political Development Over the Long Run: China Versus Europe}, volume={21}, ISSN={1545-1577}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064428}, DOI={10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064428}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Political Science}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Dincecco, Mark and Wang, Yuhua}, year={2018}, month=May, pages={341–358} } | 131 | +@article{dincecco2018, title={Violent Conflict and Political Development Over the Long Run: China Versus Europe}, volume={21}, ISSN={1545-1577}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064428}, DOI={10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064428}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Political Science}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Dincecco, Mark and Wang, Yuhua}, year={2018}, pages={341--358} } | ||
| 128 | 132 | ||||
| 129 | −@article{dow2007, title={Galton’s Problem as Multiple Network Autocorrelation Effects: Cultural Trait Transmission and Ecological Constraint}, volume={41}, ISSN={1552-3578}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1069397107305452}, DOI={10.1177/1069397107305452}, number={4}, journal={Cross-Cultural Research}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Dow, Malcolm M.}, year={2007}, month=Nov, pages={336–363} } | 133 | +@article{dow2007, title={Galton’s Problem as Multiple Network Autocorrelation Effects: Cultural Trait Transmission and Ecological Constraint}, volume={41}, ISSN={1552-3578}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1069397107305452}, DOI={10.1177/1069397107305452}, number={4}, journal={Cross-Cultural Research}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Dow, Malcolm M.}, year={2007}, pages={336--363} } | ||
| 130 | 134 | ||||
| 131 | −@article{dunbar1993, title={Coevolution of neocortical size, group size and language in humans}, volume={16}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x00032325}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x00032325}, number={4}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Dunbar, R. I. M.}, year={1993}, month=Dec, pages={681–694} } | 135 | +@article{dunbar1993, title={Coevolution of neocortical size, group size and language in humans}, volume={16}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x00032325}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x00032325}, number={4}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Dunbar, R. I. M.}, year={1993}, pages={681--694} } | ||
| 132 | 136 | ||||
| 133 | @book{eisenstadt1963, | 137 | @book{eisenstadt1963, | ||
| 134 | author = {Eisenstadt, Shmuel N.}, | 138 | author = {Eisenstadt, Shmuel N.}, | ||
@@ -138,23 +142,23 @@ | |||||
| 138 | year = {1963} | 142 | year = {1963} | ||
| 139 | } | 143 | } | ||
| 140 | 144 | ||||
| 141 | −@article{ellison1993, title={Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951493}, DOI={10.2307/2951493}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Ellison, Glenn}, year={1993}, month=Sept, pages={1047} } | 145 | +@article{ellison1993, title={Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951493}, DOI={10.2307/2951493}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Ellison, Glenn}, year={1993}, pages={1047} } | ||
| 142 | 146 | ||||
| 143 | −@book{epstein1996, title={Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up}, ISBN={9780262272360}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/3374.001.0001}, DOI={10.7551/mitpress/3374.001.0001}, publisher={The MIT Press}, author={Epstein, Joshua M. and Axtell, Robert L.}, year={1996}, month=Oct } | 147 | +@book{epstein1996, title={Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up}, ISBN={9780262272360}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/3374.001.0001}, DOI={10.7551/mitpress/3374.001.0001}, publisher={The MIT Press}, author={Epstein, Joshua M. and Axtell, Robert L.}, year={1996}} | ||
| 144 | 148 | ||||
| 145 | −@article{fearon2003, title={Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War}, volume={97}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055403000534}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055403000534}, number={01}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={FEARON, JAMES D. and LAITIN, DAVID D.}, year={2003}, month=Feb, pages={75–90} } | 149 | +@article{fearon2003, title={Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War}, volume={97}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055403000534}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055403000534}, number={01}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={FEARON, JAMES D. and LAITIN, DAVID D.}, year={2003}, pages={75--90} } | ||
| 146 | 150 | ||||
| 147 | −@article{feinman2011, title={Size, Complexity, and Organizational Variation: A Comparative Approach}, volume={45}, ISSN={1552-3578}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1069397110383658}, DOI={10.1177/1069397110383658}, number={1}, journal={Cross-Cultural Research}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Feinman, Gary M.}, year={2010}, month=Nov, pages={37–58} } | 151 | +@article{feinman2011, title={Size, Complexity, and Organizational Variation: A Comparative Approach}, volume={45}, ISSN={1552-3578}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1069397110383658}, DOI={10.1177/1069397110383658}, number={1}, journal={Cross-Cultural Research}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Feinman, Gary M.}, year={2010}, pages={37--58} } | ||
| 148 | 152 | ||||
| 149 | −@article{fernandezvillaverde2023, title={The Fractured-Land Hypothesis}, volume={138}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad003}, DOI={10.1093/qje/qjad003}, number={2}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Koyama, Mark and Lin, Youhong and Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2023}, month=Jan, pages={1173–1231} } | 153 | +@article{fernandezvillaverde2023, title={The Fractured-Land Hypothesis}, volume={138}, ISSN={1531-4650}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad003}, DOI={10.1093/qje/qjad003}, number={2}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Koyama, Mark and Lin, Youhong and Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2023}, pages={1173--1231} } | ||
| 150 | 154 | ||||
| 151 | −@article{flack2012, title={Multiple time-scales and the developmental dynamics of social systems}, volume={367}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0214}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2011.0214}, number={1597}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2012}, month=July, pages={1802–1810} } | 155 | +@article{flack2012, title={Multiple time-scales and the developmental dynamics of social systems}, volume={367}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0214}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2011.0214}, number={1597}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2012}, pages={1802--1810} } | ||
| 152 | 156 | ||||
| 153 | −@article{flack2017, title={Coarse-graining as a downward causation mechanism}, volume={375}, ISSN={1471-2962}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0338}, DOI={10.1098/rsta.2016.0338}, number={2109}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2017}, month=Nov, pages={20160338} } | 157 | +@article{flack2017, title={Coarse-graining as a downward causation mechanism}, volume={375}, ISSN={1471-2962}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0338}, DOI={10.1098/rsta.2016.0338}, number={2109}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Flack, Jessica C.}, year={2017}, pages={20160338} } | ||
| 154 | 158 | ||||
| 155 | −@article{flannery1972, title={The Cultural Evolution of Civilizations}, volume={3}, ISSN={0066-4162}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.002151}, DOI={10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.002151}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Flannery, Kent V.}, year={1972}, month=Nov, pages={399–426} } | 159 | +@article{flannery1972, title={The Cultural Evolution of Civilizations}, volume={3}, ISSN={0066-4162}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.002151}, DOI={10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.002151}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Flannery, Kent V.}, year={1972}, pages={399--426} } | ||
| 156 | 160 | ||||
| 157 | −@article{francois2016, title={A Macroscope for Global History: Seshat Global History Databank, a methodological overview}, volume={10}, ISSN={1938-4122}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.63744/e3j3d5qsvq99}, DOI={10.63744/e3j3d5qsvq99}, number={4}, journal={Digital Humanities Quarterly}, publisher={The Association for Computers and the Humanities}, author={François, Pieter and Manning, J.G. and Whitehouse, Harvey and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Turchin, Peter}, year={2016}, month=Oct } | 161 | +@article{francois2016, title={A Macroscope for Global History: Seshat Global History Databank, a methodological overview}, volume={10}, ISSN={1938-4122}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.63744/e3j3d5qsvq99}, DOI={10.63744/e3j3d5qsvq99}, number={4}, journal={Digital Humanities Quarterly}, publisher={The Association for Computers and the Humanities}, author={François, Pieter and Manning, J.G. and Whitehouse, Harvey and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Turchin, Peter}, year={2016}} | ||
| 158 | 162 | ||||
| 159 | @book{fukuyama2011, | 163 | @book{fukuyama2011, | ||
| 160 | author = {Fukuyama, Francis}, | 164 | author = {Fukuyama, Francis}, | ||
@@ -164,15 +168,15 @@ | |||||
| 164 | year = {2011} | 168 | year = {2011} | ||
| 165 | } | 169 | } | ||
| 166 | 170 | ||||
| 167 | −@article{galeotti2013, title={Strategic information transmission networks}, volume={148}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.016}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.016}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Galeotti, Andrea and Ghiglino, Christian and Squintani, Francesco}, year={2013}, month=Sept, pages={1751–1769} } | 171 | +@article{galeotti2013, title={Strategic information transmission networks}, volume={148}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.016}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.016}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Galeotti, Andrea and Ghiglino, Christian and Squintani, Francesco}, year={2013}, pages={1751--1769} } | ||
| 168 | 172 | ||||
| 169 | −@article{garicano2000, title={Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production}, volume={108}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/317671}, DOI={10.1086/317671}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Garicano, Luis}, year={2000}, month=Oct, pages={874–904} } | 173 | +@article{garicano2000, title={Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production}, volume={108}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/317671}, DOI={10.1086/317671}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Garicano, Luis}, year={2000}, pages={874--904} } | ||
| 170 | 174 | ||||
| 171 | −@article{gavrilets2008, title={Dynamics of Alliance Formation and the Egalitarian Revolution}, volume={3}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0003293}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0003293}, number={10}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Gavrilets, Sergey and Duenez-Guzman, Edgar A. and Vose, Michael D.}, editor={Svensson, Erik I.}, year={2008}, month=Oct, pages={e3293} } | 175 | +@article{gavrilets2008, title={Dynamics of Alliance Formation and the Egalitarian Revolution}, volume={3}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0003293}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0003293}, number={10}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Gavrilets, Sergey and Duenez-Guzman, Edgar A. and Vose, Michael D.}, editor={Svensson, Erik I.}, year={2008}, pages={e3293} } | ||
| 172 | 176 | ||||
| 173 | @article{gelman2014, title={The Statistical Crisis in Science}, volume={102}, ISSN={1545-2786}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1511/2014.111.460}, DOI={10.1511/2014.111.460}, number={6}, journal={American Scientist}, publisher={Sigma Xi}, author={Gelman, Andrew and Loken, Eric}, year={2014}, pages={460} } | 177 | @article{gelman2014, title={The Statistical Crisis in Science}, volume={102}, ISSN={1545-2786}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1511/2014.111.460}, DOI={10.1511/2014.111.460}, number={6}, journal={American Scientist}, publisher={Sigma Xi}, author={Gelman, Andrew and Loken, Eric}, year={2014}, pages={460} } | ||
| 174 | 178 | ||||
| 175 | −@article{gennaioli2015, title={State Capacity and Military Conflict}, volume={82}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv019}, DOI={10.1093/restud/rdv019}, number={4}, journal={The Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Gennaioli, Nicola and Voth, Hans-Joachim}, year={2015}, month=May, pages={1409–1448} } | 179 | +@article{gennaioli2015, title={State Capacity and Military Conflict}, volume={82}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv019}, DOI={10.1093/restud/rdv019}, number={4}, journal={The Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Gennaioli, Nicola and Voth, Hans-Joachim}, year={2015}, pages={1409--1448} } | ||
| 176 | 180 | ||||
| 177 | @misc{glottolog2026, | 181 | @misc{glottolog2026, | ||
| 178 | author = {Hammarstr{\"o}m, Harald and Forkel, Robert and Haspelmath, Martin and Bank, Sebastian}, | 182 | author = {Hammarstr{\"o}m, Harald and Forkel, Robert and Haspelmath, Martin and Bank, Sebastian}, | ||
@@ -190,7 +194,7 @@ | |||||
| 190 | year = {1991} | 194 | year = {1991} | ||
| 191 | } | 195 | } | ||
| 192 | 196 | ||||
| 193 | −@article{goldstone2010, title={A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability}, volume={54}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Goldstone, Jack A. and Bates, Robert H. and Epstein, David L. and Gurr, Ted Robert and Lustik, Michael B. and Marshall, Monty G. and Ulfelder, Jay and Woodward, Mark}, year={2009}, month=Dec, pages={190–208} } | 197 | +@article{goldstone2010, title={A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability}, volume={54}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Goldstone, Jack A. and Bates, Robert H. and Epstein, David L. and Gurr, Ted Robert and Lustik, Michael B. and Marshall, Monty G. and Ulfelder, Jay and Woodward, Mark}, year={2009}, pages={190--208} } | ||
| 194 | 198 | ||||
| 195 | @book{graeber2021, | 199 | @book{graeber2021, | ||
| 196 | author = {Graeber, David and Wengrow, David}, | 200 | author = {Graeber, David and Wengrow, David}, | ||
@@ -210,13 +214,13 @@ | |||||
| 210 | year = {1993} | 214 | year = {1993} | ||
| 211 | } | 215 | } | ||
| 212 | 216 | ||||
| 213 | −@book{greif2006, title={Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade}, ISBN={9780511791307}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511791307}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511791307}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Greif, Avner}, year={2006}, month=Jan } | 217 | +@book{greif2006, title={Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade}, ISBN={9780511791307}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511791307}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511791307}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Greif, Avner}, year={2006}} | ||
| 214 | 218 | ||||
| 215 | −@article{hagenbach2010, title={Strategic Communication Networks}, volume={77}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.591.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.591.x}, number={3}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={HAGENBACH, JEANNE and KOESSLER, FRÉDÉRIC}, year={2009}, month=Dec, pages={1072–1099} } | 219 | +@article{hagenbach2010, title={Strategic Communication Networks}, volume={77}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.591.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.591.x}, number={3}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={HAGENBACH, JEANNE and KOESSLER, FRÉDÉRIC}, year={2009}, pages={1072--1099} } | ||
| 216 | 220 | ||||
| 217 | −@article{hamilton2007, title={The complex structure of hunter–gatherer social networks}, volume={274}, ISSN={1471-2954}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.0564}, DOI={10.1098/rspb.2007.0564}, number={1622}, journal={Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Hamilton, Marcus J and Milne, Bruce T and Walker, Robert S and Burger, Oskar and Brown, James H}, year={2007}, month=July, pages={2195–2203} } | 221 | +@article{hamilton2007, title={The complex structure of hunter--gatherer social networks}, volume={274}, ISSN={1471-2954}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.0564}, DOI={10.1098/rspb.2007.0564}, number={1622}, journal={Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Hamilton, Marcus J and Milne, Bruce T and Walker, Robert S and Burger, Oskar and Brown, James H}, year={2007}, pages={2195--2203} } | ||
| 218 | 222 | ||||
| 219 | −@article{hanson2021, title={Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring State Capacity for Comparative Political Research}, volume={83}, ISSN={1468-2508}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/715066}, DOI={10.1086/715066}, number={4}, journal={The Journal of Politics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Hanson, Jonathan K. and Sigman, Rachel}, year={2021}, month=Oct, pages={1495–1510} } | 223 | +@article{hanson2021, title={Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring State Capacity for Comparative Political Research}, volume={83}, ISSN={1468-2508}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/715066}, DOI={10.1086/715066}, number={4}, journal={The Journal of Politics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Hanson, Jonathan K. and Sigman, Rachel}, year={2021}, pages={1495--1510} } | ||
| 220 | 224 | ||||
| 221 | @article{hayek1945, | 225 | @article{hayek1945, | ||
| 222 | author = {Hayek, Friedrich A.}, | 226 | author = {Hayek, Friedrich A.}, | ||
@@ -228,9 +232,9 @@ | |||||
| 228 | year = {1945} | 232 | year = {1945} | ||
| 229 | } | 233 | } | ||
| 230 | 234 | ||||
| 231 | −@article{hegre2001, title={Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992}, volume={95}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055401000119}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055401000119}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Hegre, Håvard}, year={2001}, month=Mar, pages={33–48} } | 235 | +@article{hegre2001, title={Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816--1992}, volume={95}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055401000119}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055401000119}, number={1}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Hegre, Håvard}, year={2001}, pages={33--48} } | ||
| 232 | 236 | ||||
| 233 | −@article{henrich2004, title={Cultural group selection, coevolutionary processes and large-scale cooperation}, volume={53}, ISSN={0167-2681}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00094-5}, DOI={10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00094-5}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Henrich, Joseph}, year={2004}, month=Jan, pages={3–35} } | 237 | +@article{henrich2004, title={Cultural group selection, coevolutionary processes and large-scale cooperation}, volume={53}, ISSN={0167-2681}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00094-5}, DOI={10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00094-5}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Henrich, Joseph}, year={2004}, pages={3--35} } | ||
| 234 | 238 | ||||
| 235 | @book{hidalgo2015, | 239 | @book{hidalgo2015, | ||
| 236 | author = {Hidalgo, C{\'e}sar}, | 240 | author = {Hidalgo, C{\'e}sar}, | ||
@@ -240,13 +244,18 @@ | |||||
| 240 | year = {2015} | 244 | year = {2015} | ||
| 241 | } | 245 | } | ||
| 242 | 246 | ||||
| 243 | −@book{hoffman2015, title={Why Did Europe Conquer the World?}, ISBN={9780691139708}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc778hd}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvc778hd}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={HOFFMAN, PHILIP T.}, year={2015}, month=June } | 247 | +@book{hoffman2015, title={Why Did Europe Conquer the World?}, ISBN={9780691139708}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc778hd}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvc778hd}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={HOFFMAN, PHILIP T.}, year={2015}} | ||
| 244 | 248 | ||||
| 245 | −@book{hosmer2013, title={Applied Logistic Regression}, ISBN={9781118548387}, ISSN={1940-6347}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118548387}, DOI={10.1002/9781118548387}, journal={Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Hosmer, David W. and Lemeshow, Stanley and Sturdivant, Rodney X.}, year={2013}, month=Mar } | 249 | +@book{hosmer2013, title={Applied Logistic Regression}, ISBN={9781118548387}, ISSN={1940-6347}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118548387}, DOI={10.1002/9781118548387}, journal={Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Hosmer, David W. and Lemeshow, Stanley and Sturdivant, Rodney X.}, year={2013}} | ||
| 246 | 250 | ||||
| 247 | −@article{hoyer2023, title={Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate}, volume={378}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0402}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2022.0402}, number={1889}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Hoyer, Daniel and Bennett, James S. and Reddish, Jenny and Holder, Samantha and Howard, Robert and Benam, Majid and Levine, Jill and Ludlow, Francis and Feinman, Gary and Turchin, Peter}, year={2023}, month=Sept } | 251 | +@article{hoyer2023, title={Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate}, volume={378}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0402}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2022.0402}, number={1889}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Hoyer, Daniel and Bennett, James S. and Reddish, Jenny and Holder, Samantha and Howard, Robert and Benam, Majid and Levine, Jill and Ludlow, Francis and Feinman, Gary and Turchin, Peter}, year={2023}} | ||
| 248 | 252 | ||||
| 249 | −@article{hoyer2024, title={All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The role of societal instability in shaping the past}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd}, DOI={10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd}, publisher={Center for Open Science}, author={Hoyer, Daniel and Holder, Samantha Louise and Bennett, James S and François, Pieter and Whitehouse, Harvey and Covey, Alan and Feinman, Gary and Korotayev, Andrey and Vustiuzhanin, Vadim and Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes and Bard, Kathryn and Levine, Jill and Reddish, Jenny and Orlandi, Georg and Ainsworth, Rachel and Turchin, Peter}, year={2024}, month=Feb } | 253 | +@unpublished{hoyer2024, | ||
| 254 | + author = {Hoyer, Daniel and Holder, Samantha and Bennett, James S. and Fran{\c{c}}ois, Pieter and Whitehouse, Harvey and Covey, Alan and Feinman, Gary and Korotayev, Andrey and Vustiuzhanin, Vadim and Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes and Bard, Kathryn and Levine, Jenny and Reddish, Jennifer and Orlandi, Georg and Ainsworth, Rachel and Turchin, Peter}, | ||||
| 255 | + title = {All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The Role of Societal Instability in Shaping the Past}, | ||||
| 256 | + note = {SocArXiv preprint, DOI 10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd; no journal version found as of November 2026}, | ||||
| 257 | + year = {2024} | ||||
| 258 | +} | ||||
| 250 | 259 | ||||
| 251 | @book{innis1950, | 260 | @book{innis1950, | ||
| 252 | author = {Innis, Harold A.}, | 261 | author = {Innis, Harold A.}, | ||
@@ -256,7 +265,7 @@ | |||||
| 256 | year = {1950} | 265 | year = {1950} | ||
| 257 | } | 266 | } | ||
| 258 | 267 | ||||
| 259 | −@book{jackson2008, title={Social and Economic Networks}, ISBN={9781400833993}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400833993}, DOI={10.1515/9781400833993}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Jackson, Matthew O.}, year={2008}, month=Dec } | 268 | +@book{jackson2008, title={Social and Economic Networks}, ISBN={9781400833993}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400833993}, DOI={10.1515/9781400833993}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Jackson, Matthew O.}, year={2008}} | ||
| 260 | 269 | ||||
| 261 | @incollection{johnson1978, | 270 | @incollection{johnson1978, | ||
| 262 | author = {Johnson, Gregory A.}, | 271 | author = {Johnson, Gregory A.}, | ||
@@ -280,17 +289,23 @@ | |||||
| 280 | year = {1982} | 289 | year = {1982} | ||
| 281 | } | 290 | } | ||
| 282 | 291 | ||||
| 283 | −@article{johnson2017, title={States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints}, volume={64}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Johnson, Noel D. and Koyama, Mark}, year={2017}, month=Apr, pages={1–20} } | 292 | +@article{johnson2017, title={States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints}, volume={64}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Johnson, Noel D. and Koyama, Mark}, year={2017}, pages={1--20} } | ||
| 284 | 293 | ||||
| 285 | −@article{kandori1993, title={Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951777}, DOI={10.2307/2951777}, number={1}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Kandori, Michihiro and Mailath, George J. and Rob, Rafael}, year={1993}, month=Jan, pages={29} } | 294 | +@article{kandori1993, title={Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951777}, DOI={10.2307/2951777}, number={1}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Kandori, Michihiro and Mailath, George J. and Rob, Rafael}, year={1993}, pages={29} } | ||
| 286 | 295 | ||||
| 287 | −@article{kirby2016, title={D-PLACE: A Global Database of Cultural, Linguistic and Environmental Diversity}, volume={11}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158391}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0158391}, number={7}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Kirby, Kathryn R. and Gray, Russell D. and Greenhill, Simon J. and Jordan, Fiona M. and Gomes-Ng, Stephanie and Bibiko, Hans-Jörg and Blasi, Damián E. and Botero, Carlos A. and Bowern, Claire and Ember, Carol R. and Leehr, Dan and Low, Bobbi S. and McCarter, Joe and Divale, William and Gavin, Michael C.}, editor={Mesoudi, Alex}, year={2016}, month=July, pages={e0158391} } | 296 | +@article{kirby2016, title={D-PLACE: A Global Database of Cultural, Linguistic and Environmental Diversity}, volume={11}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158391}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0158391}, number={7}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Kirby, Kathryn R. and Gray, Russell D. and Greenhill, Simon J. and Jordan, Fiona M. and Gomes-Ng, Stephanie and Bibiko, Hans-Jörg and Blasi, Damián E. and Botero, Carlos A. and Bowern, Claire and Ember, Carol R. and Leehr, Dan and Low, Bobbi S. and McCarter, Joe and Divale, William and Gavin, Michael C.}, editor={Mesoudi, Alex}, year={2016}, pages={e0158391} } | ||
| 288 | 297 | ||||
| 289 | −@article{ko2018, title={UNIFIED CHINA AND DIVIDED EUROPE}, volume={59}, ISSN={1468-2354}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12270}, DOI={10.1111/iere.12270}, number={1}, journal={International Economic Review}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Ko, Chiu Yu and Koyama, Mark and Sng, Tuan‐Hwee}, year={2018}, month=Feb, pages={285–327} } | 298 | +@article{ko2018, title={UNIFIED CHINA AND DIVIDED EUROPE}, volume={59}, ISSN={1468-2354}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12270}, DOI={10.1111/iere.12270}, number={1}, journal={International Economic Review}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Ko, Chiu Yu and Koyama, Mark and Sng, Tuan‐Hwee}, year={2018}, pages={285--327} } | ||
| 290 | 299 | ||||
| 291 | −@article{kohler2017, title={Greater post-Neolithic wealth disparities in Eurasia than in North America and Mesoamerica}, volume={551}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24646}, DOI={10.1038/nature24646}, number={7682}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Kohler, Timothy A. and Smith, Michael E. and Bogaard, Amy and Feinman, Gary M. and Peterson, Christian E. and Betzenhauser, Alleen and Pailes, Matthew and Stone, Elizabeth C. and Marie Prentiss, Anna and Dennehy, Timothy J. and Ellyson, Laura J. and Nicholas, Linda M. and Faulseit, Ronald K. and Styring, Amy and Whitlam, Jade and Fochesato, Mattia and Foor, Thomas A. and Bowles, Samuel}, year={2017}, month=Nov, pages={619–622} } | 300 | +@article{kohler2017, title={Greater post-Neolithic wealth disparities in Eurasia than in North America and Mesoamerica}, volume={551}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24646}, DOI={10.1038/nature24646}, number={7682}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Kohler, Timothy A. and Smith, Michael E. and Bogaard, Amy and Feinman, Gary M. and Peterson, Christian E. and Betzenhauser, Alleen and Pailes, Matthew and Stone, Elizabeth C. and Marie Prentiss, Anna and Dennehy, Timothy J. and Ellyson, Laura J. and Nicholas, Linda M. and Faulseit, Ronald K. and Styring, Amy and Whitlam, Jade and Fochesato, Mattia and Foor, Thomas A. and Bowles, Samuel}, year={2017}, pages={619--622} } | ||
| 292 | 301 | ||||
| 293 | −@book{kohler2018, title={Ten Thousand Years of Inequality: The Archaeology of Wealth Differences}, ISBN={9780816537747}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt20d8801}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctt20d8801}, publisher={University of Arizona Press}, year={2018}, month=Apr } | 302 | +@book{kohler2018, | ||
| 303 | + editor = {Kohler, Timothy A. and Smith, Michael E.}, | ||||
| 304 | + title = {Ten Thousand Years of Inequality: The Archaeology of Wealth Differences}, | ||||
| 305 | + publisher = {University of Arizona Press}, | ||||
| 306 | + address = {Tucson}, | ||||
| 307 | + year = {2018} | ||||
| 308 | +} | ||||
| 294 | 309 | ||||
| 295 | @book{koyama2022, | 310 | @book{koyama2022, | ||
| 296 | author = {Koyama, Mark and Rubin, Jared}, | 311 | author = {Koyama, Mark and Rubin, Jared}, | ||
@@ -300,11 +315,11 @@ | |||||
| 300 | year = {2022} | 315 | year = {2022} | ||
| 301 | } | 316 | } | ||
| 302 | 317 | ||||
| 303 | −@article{krakauer2020, title={The information theory of individuality}, volume={139}, ISSN={1611-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7}, DOI={10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7}, number={2}, journal={Theory in Biosciences}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Krakauer, David and Bertschinger, Nils and Olbrich, Eckehard and Flack, Jessica C. and Ay, Nihat}, year={2020}, month=Mar, pages={209–223} } | 318 | +@article{krakauer2020, title={The information theory of individuality}, volume={139}, ISSN={1611-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7}, DOI={10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7}, number={2}, journal={Theory in Biosciences}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Krakauer, David and Bertschinger, Nils and Olbrich, Eckehard and Flack, Jessica C. and Ay, Nihat}, year={2020}, pages={209--223} } | ||
| 304 | 319 | ||||
| 305 | −@inbook{kushilevitz1997, title={Communication Complexity}, ISBN={9780120121441}, ISSN={0065-2458}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60342-3}, DOI={10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60342-3}, booktitle={Advances in Computers}, publisher={Elsevier}, author={Kushilevitz, Eyal}, year={1997}, pages={331–360} } | 320 | +@incollection{kushilevitz1997, title={Communication Complexity}, ISBN={9780120121441}, ISSN={0065-2458}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60342-3}, DOI={10.1016/s0065-2458(08)60342-3}, booktitle={Advances in Computers}, publisher={Elsevier}, author={Kushilevitz, Eyal}, year={1997}, pages={331--360} } | ||
| 306 | 321 | ||||
| 307 | −@article{lee2017, title={Legibility and the Informational Foundations of State Capacity}, volume={79}, ISSN={1468-2508}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/688053}, DOI={10.1086/688053}, number={1}, journal={The Journal of Politics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Lee, Melissa M. and Zhang, Nan}, year={2017}, month=Jan, pages={118–132} } | 322 | +@article{lee2017, title={Legibility and the Informational Foundations of State Capacity}, volume={79}, ISSN={1468-2508}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/688053}, DOI={10.1086/688053}, number={1}, journal={The Journal of Politics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Lee, Melissa M. and Zhang, Nan}, year={2017}, pages={118--132} } | ||
| 308 | 323 | ||||
| 309 | @book{lewis1969, | 324 | @book{lewis1969, | ||
| 310 | author = {Lewis, David K.}, | 325 | author = {Lewis, David K.}, | ||
@@ -314,19 +329,19 @@ | |||||
| 314 | year = {1969} | 329 | year = {1969} | ||
| 315 | } | 330 | } | ||
| 316 | 331 | ||||
| 317 | −@article{lindley1952, title={The theory of queues with a single server}, volume={48}, ISSN={1469-8064}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305004100027638}, DOI={10.1017/s0305004100027638}, number={2}, journal={Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Lindley, D. V.}, year={1952}, month=Apr, pages={277–289} } | 332 | +@article{lindley1952, title={The theory of queues with a single server}, volume={48}, ISSN={1469-8064}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305004100027638}, DOI={10.1017/s0305004100027638}, number={2}, journal={Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Lindley, D. V.}, year={1952}, pages={277--289} } | ||
| 318 | 333 | ||||
| 319 | −@article{lobo2020, title={Settlement scaling theory: Bridging the study of ancient and contemporary urban systems}, volume={57}, ISSN={1360-063X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098019873796}, DOI={10.1177/0042098019873796}, number={4}, journal={Urban Studies}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Lobo, Jose and Bettencourt, Luis MA and Smith, Michael E and Ortman, Scott}, year={2019}, month=Oct, pages={731–747} } | 334 | +@article{lobo2020, title={Settlement scaling theory: Bridging the study of ancient and contemporary urban systems}, volume={57}, ISSN={1360-063X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098019873796}, DOI={10.1177/0042098019873796}, number={4}, journal={Urban Studies}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Lobo, Jose and Bettencourt, Luis MA and Smith, Michael E and Ortman, Scott}, year={2019}, pages={731--747} } | ||
| 320 | 335 | ||||
| 321 | −@article{loynes1962, title={The stability of a queue with non-independent inter-arrival and service times}, volume={58}, ISSN={1469-8064}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305004100036781}, DOI={10.1017/s0305004100036781}, number={3}, journal={Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Loynes, R. M.}, year={1962}, month=July, pages={497–520} } | 336 | +@article{loynes1962, title={The stability of a queue with non-independent inter-arrival and service times}, volume={58}, ISSN={1469-8064}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0305004100036781}, DOI={10.1017/s0305004100036781}, number={3}, journal={Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Loynes, R. M.}, year={1962}, pages={497--520} } | ||
| 322 | 337 | ||||
| 323 | −@article{mace1994, title={The Comparative Method in Anthropology [and Comments and Reply]}, volume={35}, ISSN={1537-5382}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/204317}, DOI={10.1086/204317}, number={5}, journal={Current Anthropology}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Mace, Ruth and Pagel, Mark and Bowen, John R. and Otterbein, Keith F. and Ridley, Mark and Schweizer, Thomas and Voland, Eckart}, year={1994}, month=Dec, pages={549–564} } | 338 | +@article{mace1994, title={The Comparative Method in Anthropology [and Comments and Reply]}, volume={35}, ISSN={1537-5382}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/204317}, DOI={10.1086/204317}, number={5}, journal={Current Anthropology}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Mace, Ruth and Pagel, Mark and Bowen, John R. and Otterbein, Keith F. and Ridley, Mark and Schweizer, Thomas and Voland, Eckart}, year={1994}, pages={549--564} } | ||
| 324 | 339 | ||||
| 325 | −@article{macy2002, title={From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling}, volume={28}, ISSN={1545-2115}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117}, DOI={10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Sociology}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Macy, Michael W. and Willer, Robert}, year={2002}, month=Aug, pages={143–166} } | 340 | +@article{macy2002, title={From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent-Based Modeling}, volume={28}, ISSN={1545-2115}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117}, DOI={10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117}, number={1}, journal={Annual Review of Sociology}, publisher={Annual Reviews}, author={Macy, Michael W. and Willer, Robert}, year={2002}, pages={143--166} } | ||
| 326 | 341 | ||||
| 327 | −@article{mann1984, title={The autonomous power of the state: its origins, mechanisms and results}, volume={25}, ISSN={1474-0583}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003975600004239}, DOI={10.1017/s0003975600004239}, number={2}, journal={European Journal of Sociology}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Mann, Michael}, year={1984}, month=Nov, pages={185–213} } | 342 | +@article{mann1984, title={The autonomous power of the state: its origins, mechanisms and results}, volume={25}, ISSN={1474-0583}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003975600004239}, DOI={10.1017/s0003975600004239}, number={2}, journal={European Journal of Sociology}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Mann, Michael}, year={1984}, pages={185--213} } | ||
| 328 | 343 | ||||
| 329 | −@book{mann1986, title={The Sources of Social Power}, ISBN={9780511570896}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511570896}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511570896}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Mann, Michael}, year={1986}, month=Apr } | 344 | +@book{mann1986, title={The Sources of Social Power}, ISBN={9780511570896}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511570896}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511570896}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Mann, Michael}, year={1986}} | ||
| 330 | 345 | ||||
| 331 | @book{marschak1972, | 346 | @book{marschak1972, | ||
| 332 | author = {Marschak, Jacob and Radner, Roy}, | 347 | author = {Marschak, Jacob and Radner, Roy}, | ||
@@ -336,57 +351,64 @@ | |||||
| 336 | year = {1972} | 351 | year = {1972} | ||
| 337 | } | 352 | } | ||
| 338 | 353 | ||||
| 339 | −@article{marzen2017, title={The evolution of lossy compression}, volume={14}, ISSN={1742-5662}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0166}, DOI={10.1098/rsif.2017.0166}, number={130}, journal={Journal of The Royal Society Interface}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Marzen, Sarah E. and DeDeo, Simon}, year={2017}, month=May, pages={20170166} } | 354 | +@article{marzen2017, title={The evolution of lossy compression}, volume={14}, ISSN={1742-5662}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0166}, DOI={10.1098/rsif.2017.0166}, number={130}, journal={Journal of The Royal Society Interface}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Marzen, Sarah E. and DeDeo, Simon}, year={2017}, pages={20170166} } | ||
| 340 | 355 | ||||
| 341 | −@article{mayshar2022, title={The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?}, volume={130}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/718372}, DOI={10.1086/718372}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Mayshar, Joram and Moav, Omer and Pascali, Luigi}, year={2022}, month=Apr, pages={1091–1144} } | 356 | +@article{mayshar2022, title={The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?}, volume={130}, ISSN={1537-534X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/718372}, DOI={10.1086/718372}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Political Economy}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Mayshar, Joram and Moav, Omer and Pascali, Luigi}, year={2022}, pages={1091--1144} } | ||
| 342 | 357 | ||||
| 343 | @book{mcneill1982, title={The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000}, ISBN={9780226160191}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226160191.001.0001}, DOI={10.7208/chicago/9780226160191.001.0001}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={McNeill, William H.}, year={1982} } | 358 | @book{mcneill1982, title={The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000}, ISBN={9780226160191}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226160191.001.0001}, DOI={10.7208/chicago/9780226160191.001.0001}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={McNeill, William H.}, year={1982} } | ||
| 344 | 359 | ||||
| 345 | −@book{middleton2017, title={Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths}, ISBN={9781316606070}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584941}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584941}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Middleton, Guy D.}, year={2017}, month=June } | 360 | +@book{middleton2017, title={Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths}, ISBN={9781316606070}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584941}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584941}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Middleton, Guy D.}, year={2017}} | ||
| 346 | 361 | ||||
| 347 | −@article{milgrom1990, title={THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE REVIVAL OF TRADE: THE LAW MERCHANT, PRIVATE JUDGES, AND THE CHAMPAGNE FAIRS}, volume={2}, ISSN={1468-0343}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1990.tb00020.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0343.1990.tb00020.x}, number={1}, journal={Economics \& Politics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Milgrom, Paul R. and North, Douglass C. and Weingast*, Barry R.}, year={1990}, month=Mar, pages={1–23} } | 362 | +@article{milgrom1990, title={THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE REVIVAL OF TRADE: THE LAW MERCHANT, PRIVATE JUDGES, AND THE CHAMPAGNE FAIRS}, volume={2}, ISSN={1468-0343}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1990.tb00020.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0343.1990.tb00020.x}, number={1}, journal={Economics \& Politics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Milgrom, Paul R. and North, Douglass C. and Weingast*, Barry R.}, year={1990}, pages={1--23} } | ||
| 348 | 363 | ||||
| 349 | −@article{miranda2020, title={The two types of society: Computationally revealing recurrent social formations and their evolutionary trajectories}, volume={15}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232609}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0232609}, number={5}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Miranda, Lux and Freeman, Jacob}, editor={Wakano, Joe Yuichiro}, year={2020}, month=May, pages={e0232609} } | 364 | +@article{miranda2020, title={The two types of society: Computationally revealing recurrent social formations and their evolutionary trajectories}, volume={15}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232609}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0232609}, number={5}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Miranda, Lux and Freeman, Jacob}, editor={Wakano, Joe Yuichiro}, year={2020}, pages={e0232609} } | ||
| 350 | 365 | ||||
| 351 | −@book{mokyr2016, title={A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy}, ISBN={9781400882915}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400882915}, DOI={10.1515/9781400882915}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Joel, Mokyr}, year={2016}, month=Nov } | 366 | +@book{mokyr2016, title={A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy}, ISBN={9781400882915}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400882915}, DOI={10.1515/9781400882915}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Joel, Mokyr}, year={2016}} | ||
| 352 | 367 | ||||
| 353 | −@article{morris2000, title={Contagion}, volume={67}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00121}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00121}, number={1}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Morris, Stephen}, year={2000}, month=Jan, pages={57–78} } | 368 | +@article{morris2000, title={Contagion}, volume={67}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00121}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00121}, number={1}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Morris, Stephen}, year={2000}, pages={57--78} } | ||
| 354 | 369 | ||||
| 355 | −@article{morris2002, title={Social Value of Public Information}, volume={92}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024610}, DOI={10.1257/000282802762024610}, number={5}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Morris, Stephen and Shin, Hyun Song}, year={2002}, month=Nov, pages={1521–1534} } | 370 | +@article{morris2002, title={Social Value of Public Information}, volume={92}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024610}, DOI={10.1257/000282802762024610}, number={5}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Morris, Stephen and Shin, Hyun Song}, year={2002}, pages={1521--1534} } | ||
| 356 | 371 | ||||
| 357 | −@article{mount1974, title={The informational size of message spaces}, volume={8}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(74)90012-x}, DOI={10.1016/0022-0531(74)90012-x}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Mount, Kenneth and Reiter, Stanley}, year={1974}, month=June, pages={161–192} } | 372 | +@article{mount1974, title={The informational size of message spaces}, volume={8}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(74)90012-x}, DOI={10.1016/0022-0531(74)90012-x}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Mount, Kenneth and Reiter, Stanley}, year={1974}, pages={161--192} } | ||
| 358 | 373 | ||||
| 359 | −@article{murdock1967, title={Ethnographic Atlas: A Summary}, volume={6}, ISSN={0014-1828}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3772751}, DOI={10.2307/3772751}, number={2}, journal={Ethnology}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Murdock, George Peter}, year={1967}, month=Apr, pages={109} } | 374 | +@article{murdock1967, title={Ethnographic Atlas: A Summary}, volume={6}, ISSN={0014-1828}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3772751}, DOI={10.2307/3772751}, number={2}, journal={Ethnology}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Murdock, George Peter}, year={1967}, pages={109} } | ||
| 360 | 375 | ||||
| 361 | −@article{naroll1956, title={A Preliminary Index of Social Development}, volume={58}, ISSN={1548-1433}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080}, DOI={10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080}, number={4}, journal={American Anthropologist}, publisher={Wiley}, author={NAROLL, RAOUL}, year={1956}, month=Aug, pages={687–715} } | 376 | +@article{naroll1956, title={A Preliminary Index of Social Development}, volume={58}, ISSN={1548-1433}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080}, DOI={10.1525/aa.1956.58.4.02a00080}, number={4}, journal={American Anthropologist}, publisher={Wiley}, author={NAROLL, RAOUL}, year={1956}, pages={687--715} } | ||
| 362 | 377 | ||||
| 363 | −@article{nisan2006, title={The communication requirements of efficient allocations and supporting prices}, volume={129}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2004.10.007}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2004.10.007}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Nisan, Noam and Segal, Ilya}, year={2006}, month=July, pages={192–224} } | 378 | +@article{nisan2006, title={The communication requirements of efficient allocations and supporting prices}, volume={129}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2004.10.007}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2004.10.007}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Nisan, Noam and Segal, Ilya}, year={2006}, pages={192--224} } | ||
| 364 | 379 | ||||
| 365 | −@book{north1990, title={Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance}, ISBN={9780511808678}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511808678}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511808678}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={North, Douglass C.}, year={1990}, month=Oct } | 380 | +@book{north1990, title={Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance}, ISBN={9780511808678}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511808678}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511808678}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={North, Douglass C.}, year={1990}} | ||
| 366 | 381 | ||||
| 367 | −@article{north1991, title={Institutions}, volume={5}, ISSN={0895-3309}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.97}, DOI={10.1257/jep.5.1.97}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Perspectives}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={North, Douglass C}, year={1991}, month=Feb, pages={97–112} } | 382 | +@article{north1991, title={Institutions}, volume={5}, ISSN={0895-3309}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.97}, DOI={10.1257/jep.5.1.97}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Perspectives}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={North, Douglass C}, year={1991}, pages={97--112} } | ||
| 368 | 383 | ||||
| 369 | −@article{nosek2018, title={The preregistration revolution}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708274114}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708274114}, number={11}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Nosek, Brian A. and Ebersole, Charles R. and DeHaven, Alexander C. and Mellor, David T.}, year={2018}, month=Mar, pages={2600–2606} } | 384 | +@article{nosek2018, title={The preregistration revolution}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708274114}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708274114}, number={11}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Nosek, Brian A. and Ebersole, Charles R. and DeHaven, Alexander C. and Mellor, David T.}, year={2018}, pages={2600--2606} } | ||
| 370 | 385 | ||||
| 371 | −@book{olson1965, title={The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, With a New Preface and Appendix}, ISBN={9780674041660}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.4159/9780674041660}, DOI={10.4159/9780674041660}, publisher={Harvard University Press}, author={Olson, Mancur}, year={1965}, month=Dec } | 386 | +@book{olson1965, title={The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, With a New Preface and Appendix}, ISBN={9780674041660}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.4159/9780674041660}, DOI={10.4159/9780674041660}, publisher={Harvard University Press}, author={Olson, Mancur}, year={1965}} | ||
| 372 | 387 | ||||
| 373 | −@article{ortman2014, title={The Pre-History of Urban Scaling}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0087902}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0087902}, number={2}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Ortman, Scott G. and Cabaniss, Andrew H. F. and Sturm, Jennie O. and Bettencourt, Luís M. A.}, editor={Shennan, Stephen}, year={2014}, month=Feb, pages={e87902} } | 388 | +@article{ortman2014, title={The Pre-History of Urban Scaling}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0087902}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0087902}, number={2}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Ortman, Scott G. and Cabaniss, Andrew H. F. and Sturm, Jennie O. and Bettencourt, Luís M. A.}, editor={Shennan, Stephen}, year={2014}, pages={e87902} } | ||
| 374 | 389 | ||||
| 375 | −@article{oster2019, title={Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence}, volume={37}, ISSN={1537-2707}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, DOI={10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Oster, Emily}, year={2017}, month=June, pages={187–204} } | 390 | +@article{oster2019, title={Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence}, volume={37}, ISSN={1537-2707}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, DOI={10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Oster, Emily}, year={2017}, pages={187--204} } | ||
| 376 | 391 | ||||
| 377 | −@book{ostrom1990, title={Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action}, ISBN={9780511807763}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={1990}, month=Nov } | 392 | +@book{ostrom1990, title={Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action}, ISBN={9780511807763}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={1990}} | ||
| 378 | 393 | ||||
| 379 | −@article{ostrom2010, title={Beyond Markets and States: Polycentric Governance of Complex Economic Systems}, volume={100}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, DOI={10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, number={3}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={2010}, month=June, pages={641–672} } | 394 | +@article{ostrom2010, title={Beyond Markets and States: Polycentric Governance of Complex Economic Systems}, volume={100}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, DOI={10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, number={3}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={2010}, pages={641--672} } | ||
| 380 | 395 | ||||
| 381 | −@article{pemstein2018, title={The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3167764}, DOI={10.2139/ssrn.3167764}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Pemstein, Daniel and Marquardt, Kyle L. and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wang, Yi-ting and Krusell, Joshua and Miri, Farhad}, year={2018} } | 396 | +@techreport{pemstein2018, | ||
| 397 | + author = {Pemstein, Daniel and Marquardt, Kyle L. and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wang, Yi-ting and Medzihorsky, Juraj and Krusell, Joshua and Miri, Farhad and von Roemer, Johannes}, | ||||
| 398 | + title = {The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data}, | ||||
| 399 | + institution = {Varieties of Democracy Institute}, | ||||
| 400 | + type = {V-Dem Working Paper}, | ||||
| 401 | + number = {21}, | ||||
| 402 | + year = {2018} | ||||
| 403 | +} | ||||
| 382 | 404 | ||||
| 383 | −@article{peregrine2017, title={Political participation and long-term resilience in pre-Columbian societies}, volume={26}, ISSN={0965-3562}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, DOI={10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, number={3}, journal={Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal}, publisher={Emerald}, author={Peregrine, Peter Neal}, year={2017}, month=June, pages={314–329} } | 405 | +@article{peregrine2017, title={Political participation and long-term resilience in pre-Columbian societies}, volume={26}, ISSN={0965-3562}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, DOI={10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, number={3}, journal={Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal}, publisher={Emerald}, author={Peregrine, Peter Neal}, year={2017}, pages={314--329} } | ||
| 384 | 406 | ||||
| 385 | −@article{peregrine2019, title={Social Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses}, volume={10}, ISSN={1948-8335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, DOI={10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, number={1}, journal={Weather, Climate, and Society}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Peregrine, Peter N.}, year={2018}, month=Jan, pages={145–161} } | 407 | +@article{peregrine2019, title={Social Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses}, volume={10}, ISSN={1948-8335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, DOI={10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, number={1}, journal={Weather, Climate, and Society}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Peregrine, Peter N.}, year={2018}, pages={145--161} } | ||
| 386 | 408 | ||||
| 387 | −@article{radner1993, title={The Organization of Decentralized Information Processing}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951495}, DOI={10.2307/2951495}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Radner, Roy}, year={1993}, month=Sept, pages={1109} } | 409 | +@article{radner1993, title={The Organization of Decentralized Information Processing}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951495}, DOI={10.2307/2951495}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Radner, Roy}, year={1993}, pages={1109} } | ||
| 388 | 410 | ||||
| 389 | −@article{richerson2016, title={Cultural group selection plays an essential role in explaining human cooperation: A sketch of the evidence}, volume={39}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Richerson, Peter and Baldini, Ryan and Bell, Adrian V. and Demps, Kathryn and Frost, Karl and Hillis, Vicken and Mathew, Sarah and Newton, Emily K. and Naar, Nicole and Newson, Lesley and Ross, Cody and Smaldino, Paul E. and Waring, Timothy M. and Zefferman, Matthew}, year={2014}, month=Oct } | 411 | +@article{richerson2016, title={Cultural group selection plays an essential role in explaining human cooperation: A sketch of the evidence}, volume={39}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Richerson, Peter and Baldini, Ryan and Bell, Adrian V. and Demps, Kathryn and Frost, Karl and Hillis, Vicken and Mathew, Sarah and Newton, Emily K. and Naar, Nicole and Newson, Lesley and Ross, Cody and Smaldino, Paul E. and Waring, Timothy M. and Zefferman, Matthew}, year={2014}} | ||
| 390 | 412 | ||||
| 391 | @article{rubinstein1989, | 413 | @article{rubinstein1989, | ||
| 392 | author = {Rubinstein, Ariel}, | 414 | author = {Rubinstein, Ariel}, | ||
@@ -398,9 +420,9 @@ | |||||
| 398 | year = {1989} | 420 | year = {1989} | ||
| 399 | } | 421 | } | ||
| 400 | 422 | ||||
| 401 | −@article{samejima1969, title={Estimation of Latent Ability Using a Response Pattern of Graded Scores}, volume={34}, ISSN={1860-0980}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03372160}, DOI={10.1007/bf03372160}, number={S1}, journal={Psychometrika}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Samejima, Fumiko}, year={1969}, month=Mar, pages={1–97} } | 423 | +@article{samejima1969, title={Estimation of Latent Ability Using a Response Pattern of Graded Scores}, volume={34}, ISSN={1860-0980}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03372160}, DOI={10.1007/bf03372160}, number={S1}, journal={Psychometrika}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Samejima, Fumiko}, year={1969}, pages={1--97} } | ||
| 402 | 424 | ||||
| 403 | −@book{scheidel2019, title={Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity}, ISBN={9780691198835}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={SCHEIDEL, WALTER}, year={2019}, month=Oct } | 425 | +@book{scheidel2019, title={Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity}, ISBN={9780691198835}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={SCHEIDEL, WALTER}, year={2019}} | ||
| 404 | 426 | ||||
| 405 | @book{schelling1960, | 427 | @book{schelling1960, | ||
| 406 | author = {Schelling, Thomas C.}, | 428 | author = {Schelling, Thomas C.}, | ||
@@ -418,9 +440,9 @@ | |||||
| 418 | year = {1998} | 440 | year = {1998} | ||
| 419 | } | 441 | } | ||
| 420 | 442 | ||||
| 421 | −@book{scott2017, title={Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States}, ISBN={9780300182910}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, publisher={Yale University Press}, author={SCOTT, JAMES C.}, year={2017}, month=Aug } | 443 | +@book{scott2017, title={Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States}, ISBN={9780300182910}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, publisher={Yale University Press}, author={SCOTT, JAMES C.}, year={2017}} | ||
| 422 | 444 | ||||
| 423 | −@article{segal2007, title={The communication requirements of social choice rules and supporting budget sets}, volume={136}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Segal, Ilya}, year={2007}, month=Sept, pages={341–378} } | 445 | +@article{segal2007, title={The communication requirements of social choice rules and supporting budget sets}, volume={136}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Segal, Ilya}, year={2007}, pages={341--378} } | ||
| 424 | 446 | ||||
| 425 | @misc{seshat2026, | 447 | @misc{seshat2026, | ||
| 426 | author = {{Seshat: Global History Databank}}, | 448 | author = {{Seshat: Global History Databank}}, | ||
@@ -430,13 +452,13 @@ | |||||
| 430 | note = {Accessed 2026-11-01} | 452 | note = {Accessed 2026-11-01} | ||
| 431 | } | 453 | } | ||
| 432 | 454 | ||||
| 433 | −@article{shannon1948, title={A Mathematical Theory of Communication}, volume={27}, ISSN={0005-8580}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, DOI={10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, number={3}, journal={Bell System Technical Journal}, publisher={Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)}, author={Shannon, C. E.}, year={1948}, month=July, pages={379–423} } | 455 | +@article{shannon1948, title={A Mathematical Theory of Communication}, volume={27}, ISSN={0005-8580}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, DOI={10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, number={3}, journal={Bell System Technical Journal}, publisher={Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)}, author={Shannon, C. E.}, year={1948}, pages={379--423} } | ||
| 434 | 456 | ||||
| 435 | −@article{sheehan2018, title={Coevolution of landesque capital intensive agriculture and sociopolitical hierarchy}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, number={14}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Sheehan, Oliver and Watts, Joseph and Gray, Russell D. and Atkinson, Quentin D.}, year={2018}, month=Mar, pages={3628–3633} } | 457 | +@article{sheehan2018, title={Coevolution of landesque capital intensive agriculture and sociopolitical hierarchy}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, number={14}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Sheehan, Oliver and Watts, Joseph and Gray, Russell D. and Atkinson, Quentin D.}, year={2018}, pages={3628--3633} } | ||
| 436 | 458 | ||||
| 437 | −@article{shin2020, title={Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution}, volume={11}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Shin, Jaeweon and Price, Michael Holton and Wolpert, David H. and Shimao, Hajime and Tracey, Brendan and Kohler, Timothy A.}, year={2020}, month=May } | 459 | +@article{shin2020, title={Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution}, volume={11}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Shin, Jaeweon and Price, Michael Holton and Wolpert, David H. and Shimao, Hajime and Tracey, Brendan and Kohler, Timothy A.}, year={2020}} | ||
| 438 | 460 | ||||
| 439 | −@article{simon1955, title={A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice}, volume={69}, ISSN={0033-5533}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884852}, DOI={10.2307/1884852}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Simon, Herbert A.}, year={1955}, month=Feb, pages={99} } | 461 | +@article{simon1955, title={A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice}, volume={69}, ISSN={0033-5533}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884852}, DOI={10.2307/1884852}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Simon, Herbert A.}, year={1955}, pages={99} } | ||
| 440 | 462 | ||||
| 441 | @article{simon1962, | 463 | @article{simon1962, | ||
| 442 | author = {Simon, Herbert A.}, | 464 | author = {Simon, Herbert A.}, | ||
@@ -448,21 +470,26 @@ | |||||
| 448 | year = {1962} | 470 | year = {1962} | ||
| 449 | } | 471 | } | ||
| 450 | 472 | ||||
| 451 | −@book{skyrms2010, title={Signals: Evolution, Learning, and Information}, ISBN={9780191722769}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, DOI={10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, publisher={Oxford University PressOxford}, author={Skyrms, Brian}, year={2010}, month=Apr } | 473 | +@book{skyrms2010, title={Signals: Evolution, Learning, and Information}, ISBN={9780191722769}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, DOI={10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, publisher={Oxford University PressOxford}, author={Skyrms, Brian}, year={2010}} | ||
| 452 | 474 | ||||
| 453 | −@article{slingerland2020, title={Historians Respond to Whitehouse et al. (2019), “Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods Throughout World History”}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2amjz}, DOI={10.31234/osf.io/2amjz}, publisher={Center for Open Science}, author={Slingerland, Edward and Monroe, M. Willis and Spicer, Rachel and Muthukrishna, Michael}, year={2019}, month=May } | 475 | +@unpublished{slingerland2020, | ||
| 476 | + author = {Slingerland, Edward and Monroe, M. Willis and Sullivan, Brenton and Walsh, Robyn Faith and Veidlinger, Daniel and Alderson-Day, Ben and others}, | ||||
| 477 | + title = {Historians Respond to Whitehouse et al. (2019), ``Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods Throughout World History''}, | ||||
| 478 | + note = {PsyArXiv preprint, DOI 10.31234/osf.io/2amjz; published in Journal of Cognitive Historiography}, | ||||
| 479 | + year = {2020} | ||||
| 480 | +} | ||||
| 454 | 481 | ||||
| 455 | −@article{sng2014, title={Size and dynastic decline: The principal-agent problem in late imperial China, 1700–1850}, volume={54}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2014}, month=Oct, pages={107–127} } | 482 | +@article{sng2014, title={Size and dynastic decline: The principal-agent problem in late imperial China, 1700--1850}, volume={54}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2014}, pages={107--127} } | ||
| 456 | 483 | ||||
| 457 | −@article{soifer2008, title={State Infrastructural Power: Approaches to Conceptualization and Measurement}, volume={43}, ISSN={1936-6167}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, DOI={10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, number={3-4}, journal={Studies in Comparative International Development}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Soifer, Hillel}, year={2008}, month=Aug, pages={231–251} } | 484 | +@article{soifer2008, title={State Infrastructural Power: Approaches to Conceptualization and Measurement}, volume={43}, ISSN={1936-6167}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, DOI={10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, number={3-4}, journal={Studies in Comparative International Development}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Soifer, Hillel}, year={2008}, pages={231--251} } | ||
| 458 | 485 | ||||
| 459 | −@article{spencer2010, title={Territorial expansion and primary state formation}, volume={107}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, number={16}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Spencer, Charles S.}, year={2010}, month=Apr, pages={7119–7126} } | 486 | +@article{spencer2010, title={Territorial expansion and primary state formation}, volume={107}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, number={16}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Spencer, Charles S.}, year={2010}, pages={7119--7126} } | ||
| 460 | 487 | ||||
| 461 | −@book{stanish2017, title={The Evolution of Human Co-operation: Ritual and Social Complexity in Stateless Societies}, ISBN={9781316632277}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316848128}, DOI={10.1017/9781316848128}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Stanish, Charles}, year={2017}, month=Aug } | 488 | +@book{stanish2017, title={The Evolution of Human Co-operation: Ritual and Social Complexity in Stateless Societies}, ISBN={9781316632277}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316848128}, DOI={10.1017/9781316848128}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Stanish, Charles}, year={2017}} | ||
| 462 | 489 | ||||
| 463 | −@article{stasavage2010, title={When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies}, volume={104}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055410000444}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055410000444}, number={4}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2010}, month=Nov, pages={625–643} } | 490 | +@article{stasavage2010, title={When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies}, volume={104}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055410000444}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055410000444}, number={4}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2010}, pages={625--643} } | ||
| 464 | 491 | ||||
| 465 | −@book{stasavage2020, title={The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today}, ISBN={9780691201955}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Stasavage, David}, year={2020}, month=June } | 492 | +@book{stasavage2020, title={The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today}, ISBN={9780691201955}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Stasavage, David}, year={2020}} | ||
| 466 | 493 | ||||
| 467 | @book{tainter1988, | 494 | @book{tainter1988, | ||
| 468 | author = {Tainter, Joseph A.}, | 495 | author = {Tainter, Joseph A.}, | ||
@@ -480,13 +507,13 @@ | |||||
| 480 | year = {1992} | 507 | year = {1992} | ||
| 481 | } | 508 | } | ||
| 482 | 509 | ||||
| 483 | −@article{treier2008, title={Democracy as a Latent Variable}, volume={52}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Treier, Shawn and Jackman, Simon}, year={2008}, month=Jan, pages={201–217} } | 510 | +@article{treier2008, title={Democracy as a Latent Variable}, volume={52}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Treier, Shawn and Jackman, Simon}, year={2008}, pages={201--217} } | ||
| 484 | 511 | ||||
| 485 | −@book{trigger2003, title={Understanding Early Civilizations: A Comparative Study}, ISBN={9780511840630}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511840630}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511840630}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Trigger, Bruce G.}, year={2003}, month=May } | 512 | +@book{trigger2003, title={Understanding Early Civilizations: A Comparative Study}, ISBN={9780511840630}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511840630}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511840630}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Trigger, Bruce G.}, year={2003}} | ||
| 486 | 513 | ||||
| 487 | −@book{turchin2003, title={Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall: Why States Rise and Fall}, ISBN={9781400889310}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400889310}, DOI={10.1515/9781400889310}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Turchin, Peter}, year={2004}, month=Dec } | 514 | +@book{turchin2003, title={Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall: Why States Rise and Fall}, ISBN={9781400889310}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400889310}, DOI={10.1515/9781400889310}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Turchin, Peter}, year={2004}} | ||
| 488 | 515 | ||||
| 489 | −@book{turchin2009, title={Secular Cycles}, ISBN={9781400830688}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400830688}, DOI={10.1515/9781400830688}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Turchin, Peter and Nefedov, Sergey A.}, year={2009}, month=Dec } | 516 | +@book{turchin2009, title={Secular Cycles}, ISBN={9781400830688}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400830688}, DOI={10.1515/9781400830688}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Turchin, Peter and Nefedov, Sergey A.}, year={2009}} | ||
| 490 | 517 | ||||
| 491 | @article{turchin2009gavrilets, | 518 | @article{turchin2009gavrilets, | ||
| 492 | author = {Turchin, Peter and Gavrilets, Sergey}, | 519 | author = {Turchin, Peter and Gavrilets, Sergey}, | ||
@@ -498,7 +525,7 @@ | |||||
| 498 | year = {2009} | 525 | year = {2009} | ||
| 499 | } | 526 | } | ||
| 500 | 527 | ||||
| 501 | −@article{turchin2015, title={Seshat: The Global History Databank}, volume={6}, ISSN={2373-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.21237/C7clio6127917}, DOI={10.21237/c7clio6127917}, number={1}, journal={Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, publisher={California Digital Library (CDL)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Francois, Pieter and Hoyer, Daniel and Manning, Joseph and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Mullins, Daniel and Palmisano, Alessio and Peregrine, Peter and Turner, Edward A.L. and Whitehouse, Harvey}, year={2015}, month=June } | 528 | +@article{turchin2015, title={Seshat: The Global History Databank}, volume={6}, ISSN={2373-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.21237/C7clio6127917}, DOI={10.21237/c7clio6127917}, number={1}, journal={Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, publisher={California Digital Library (CDL)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Francois, Pieter and Hoyer, Daniel and Manning, Joseph and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Mullins, Daniel and Palmisano, Alessio and Peregrine, Peter and Turner, Edward A.L. and Whitehouse, Harvey}, year={2015}} | ||
| 502 | 529 | ||||
| 503 | @book{turchin2016, | 530 | @book{turchin2016, | ||
| 504 | author = {Turchin, Peter}, | 531 | author = {Turchin, Peter}, | ||
@@ -508,9 +535,9 @@ | |||||
| 508 | year = {2016} | 535 | year = {2016} | ||
| 509 | } | 536 | } | ||
| 510 | 537 | ||||
| 511 | −@article{turchin2018, title={Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, number={2}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Turchin, Peter and Currie, Thomas E. and Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Feeney, Kevin and Mullins, Daniel and Hoyer, Daniel and Collins, Christina and Grohmann, Stephanie and Savage, Patrick and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Turner, Edward and Dupeyron, Agathe and Cioni, Enrico and Reddish, Jenny and Levine, Jill and Jordan, Greine and Brandl, Eva and Williams, Alice and Cesaretti, Rudolf and Krueger, Marta and Ceccarelli, Alessandro and Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe and Tuan, Po-Ju and Peregrine, Peter and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes and Kradin, Nikolay and Korotayev, Andrey and Palmisano, Alessio and Baker, David and Bidmead, Julye and Bol, Peter and Christian, David and Cook, Connie and Covey, Alan and Feinman, Gary and Júlíusson, Árni Daníel and Kristinsson, Axel and Miksic, John and Mostern, Ruth and Petrie, Cameron and Rudiak-Gould, Peter and ter Haar, Barend and Wallace, Vesna and Mair, Victor and Xie, Liye and Baines, John and Bridges, Elizabeth and Manning, Joseph and Lockhart, Bruce and Bogaard, Amy and Spencer, Charles}, year={2017}, month=Dec } | 538 | +@article{turchin2018, title={Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, number={2}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Turchin, Peter and Currie, Thomas E. and Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Feeney, Kevin and Mullins, Daniel and Hoyer, Daniel and Collins, Christina and Grohmann, Stephanie and Savage, Patrick and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Turner, Edward and Dupeyron, Agathe and Cioni, Enrico and Reddish, Jenny and Levine, Jill and Jordan, Greine and Brandl, Eva and Williams, Alice and Cesaretti, Rudolf and Krueger, Marta and Ceccarelli, Alessandro and Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe and Tuan, Po-Ju and Peregrine, Peter and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes and Kradin, Nikolay and Korotayev, Andrey and Palmisano, Alessio and Baker, David and Bidmead, Julye and Bol, Peter and Christian, David and Cook, Connie and Covey, Alan and Feinman, Gary and Júlíusson, Árni Daníel and Kristinsson, Axel and Miksic, John and Mostern, Ruth and Petrie, Cameron and Rudiak-Gould, Peter and ter Haar, Barend and Wallace, Vesna and Mair, Victor and Xie, Liye and Baines, John and Bridges, Elizabeth and Manning, Joseph and Lockhart, Bruce and Bogaard, Amy and Spencer, Charles}, year={2017}} | ||
| 512 | 539 | ||||
| 513 | −@article{turchin2022, title={Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses}, volume={8}, ISSN={2375-2548}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517}, DOI={10.1126/sciadv.abn3517}, number={25}, journal={Science Advances}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Whitehouse, Harvey and Gavrilets, Sergey and Hoyer, Daniel and François, Pieter and Bennett, James S. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Peregrine, Peter and Feinman, Gary and Korotayev, Andrey and Kradin, Nikolay and Levine, Jill and Reddish, Jenny and Cioni, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Benam, Majid}, year={2022}, month=June } | 540 | +@article{turchin2022, title={Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses}, volume={8}, ISSN={2375-2548}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517}, DOI={10.1126/sciadv.abn3517}, number={25}, journal={Science Advances}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Whitehouse, Harvey and Gavrilets, Sergey and Hoyer, Daniel and François, Pieter and Bennett, James S. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Peregrine, Peter and Feinman, Gary and Korotayev, Andrey and Kradin, Nikolay and Levine, Jill and Reddish, Jenny and Cioni, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Benam, Majid}, year={2022}} | ||
| 514 | 541 | ||||
| 515 | @book{turchin2023, | 542 | @book{turchin2023, | ||
| 516 | author = {Turchin, Peter}, | 543 | author = {Turchin, Peter}, | ||
@@ -520,7 +547,7 @@ | |||||
| 520 | year = {2023} | 547 | year = {2023} | ||
| 521 | } | 548 | } | ||
| 522 | 549 | ||||
| 523 | −@article{vanzandt1999, title={Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing as a Model of Organizations with Boundedly Rational Agents}, volume={66}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00101}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00101}, number={3}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Van Zandt, Timothy}, year={1999}, month=July, pages={633–658} } | 550 | +@article{vanzandt1999, title={Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing as a Model of Organizations with Boundedly Rational Agents}, volume={66}, ISSN={1467-937X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-937x.00101}, DOI={10.1111/1467-937x.00101}, number={3}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Van Zandt, Timothy}, year={1999}, pages={633--658} } | ||
| 524 | 551 | ||||
| 525 | @misc{vdem2026, | 552 | @misc{vdem2026, | ||
| 526 | author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and others}, | 553 | author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and others}, | ||
@@ -530,7 +557,7 @@ | |||||
| 530 | note = {Obtained from the official vdemdata R package (commit f4dd26922e, 2026-03-17); accessed 2026-11-01} | 557 | note = {Obtained from the official vdemdata R package (commit f4dd26922e, 2026-03-17); accessed 2026-11-01} | ||
| 531 | } | 558 | } | ||
| 532 | 559 | ||||
| 533 | −@article{watts1998, title={Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks}, volume={393}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/30918}, DOI={10.1038/30918}, number={6684}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Watts, Duncan J. and Strogatz, Steven H.}, year={1998}, month=June, pages={440–442} } | 560 | +@article{watts1998, title={Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks}, volume={393}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/30918}, DOI={10.1038/30918}, number={6684}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Watts, Duncan J. and Strogatz, Steven H.}, year={1998}, pages={440--442} } | ||
| 534 | 561 | ||||
| 535 | @book{weber1922, | 562 | @book{weber1922, | ||
| 536 | author = {Weber, Max}, | 563 | author = {Weber, Max}, | ||
@@ -541,11 +568,11 @@ | |||||
| 541 | note = {Edited by G. Roth and C. Wittich; first published 1922} | 568 | note = {Edited by G. Roth and C. Wittich; first published 1922} | ||
| 542 | } | 569 | } | ||
| 543 | 570 | ||||
| 544 | −@article{whitehouse2019, title={RETRACTED ARTICLE: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history}, volume={568}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4}, number={7751}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Currie, Thomas E. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Ross, Robert M. and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and ter Haar, Barend and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2019}, month=Mar, pages={226–229} } | 571 | +@article{whitehouse2019, title={RETRACTED ARTICLE: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history}, volume={568}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4}, number={7751}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Currie, Thomas E. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Ross, Robert M. and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and ter Haar, Barend and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2019}, pages={226--229} } | ||
| 545 | 572 | ||||
| 546 | −@article{whitehouse2021retraction, title={Retraction Note: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history}, volume={595}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3}, number={7866}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Currie, Thomas E. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Ross, Robert M. and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and ter Haar, Barend and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2021}, month=July, pages={320–320} } | 573 | +@article{whitehouse2021retraction, title={Retraction Note: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history}, volume={595}, ISSN={1476-4687}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3}, number={7866}, journal={Nature}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Currie, Thomas E. and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Ross, Robert M. and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and ter Haar, Barend and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2021}, pages={320--320} } | ||
| 547 | 574 | ||||
| 548 | −@article{whitehouse2023, title={Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”}, volume={13}, ISSN={2153-5981}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2153599x.2022.2074085}, DOI={10.1080/2153599x.2022.2074085}, number={2}, journal={Religion, Brain \& Behavior}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Hoyer, Daniel and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and Haar, Barend ter and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2022}, month=June, pages={124–166} } | 575 | +@article{whitehouse2023, title={Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”}, volume={13}, ISSN={2153-5981}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2153599x.2022.2074085}, DOI={10.1080/2153599x.2022.2074085}, number={2}, journal={Religion, Brain \& Behavior}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Savage, Patrick E. and Hoyer, Daniel and Feeney, Kevin C. and Cioni, Enrico and Purcell, Rosalind and Larson, Jennifer and Baines, John and Haar, Barend ter and Covey, Alan and Turchin, Peter}, year={2022}, pages={124--166} } | ||
| 549 | 576 | ||||
| 550 | @book{williamson1985, | 577 | @book{williamson1985, | ||
| 551 | author = {Williamson, Oliver E.}, | 578 | author = {Williamson, Oliver E.}, | ||
@@ -555,11 +582,11 @@ | |||||
| 555 | year = {1985} | 582 | year = {1985} | ||
| 556 | } | 583 | } | ||
| 557 | 584 | ||||
| 558 | −@inbook{wolpert2017, title={The Many Faces of State Space Compression}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584200.010}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584200.010}, booktitle={From Matter to Life}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Wolpert, David and Libby, Eric and Grochow, Joshua A. and Dedeo, Simon}, year={2017}, month=Feb, pages={199–243} } | 585 | +@incollection{wolpert2017, title={The Many Faces of State Space Compression}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316584200.010}, DOI={10.1017/9781316584200.010}, booktitle={From Matter to Life}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Wolpert, David and Libby, Eric and Grochow, Joshua A. and Dedeo, Simon}, year={2017}, pages={199--243} } | ||
| 559 | 586 | ||||
| 560 | −@article{wright1975, title={Population, Exchange, and Early State Formation in Southwestern Iran}, volume={77}, ISSN={1548-1433}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020}, DOI={10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020}, number={2}, journal={American Anthropologist}, publisher={Wiley}, author={WRIGHT, HENRY T. and JOHNSON, GREGORY A.}, year={1975}, month=June, pages={267–289} } | 587 | +@article{wright1975, title={Population, Exchange, and Early State Formation in Southwestern Iran}, volume={77}, ISSN={1548-1433}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020}, DOI={10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020}, number={2}, journal={American Anthropologist}, publisher={Wiley}, author={WRIGHT, HENRY T. and JOHNSON, GREGORY A.}, year={1975}, pages={267--289} } | ||
| 561 | 588 | ||||
| 562 | −@inproceedings{yao1979, series={STOC ’79}, title={Some complexity questions related to distributive computing(Preliminary Report)}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/800135.804414}, DOI={10.1145/800135.804414}, booktitle={Proceedings of the eleventh annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing - STOC ’79}, publisher={ACM Press}, author={Yao, Andrew Chi-Chih}, year={1979}, pages={209–213}, collection={STOC ’79} } | 589 | +@inproceedings{yao1979, series={STOC ’79}, title={Some complexity questions related to distributive computing(Preliminary Report)}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/800135.804414}, DOI={10.1145/800135.804414}, booktitle={Proceedings of the eleventh annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing - STOC ’79}, publisher={ACM Press}, author={Yao, Andrew Chi-Chih}, year={1979}, pages={209--213}, collection={STOC ’79} } | ||
| 563 | 590 | ||||
| 564 | @book{yates1989, | 591 | @book{yates1989, | ||
| 565 | author = {Yates, JoAnne}, | 592 | author = {Yates, JoAnne}, | ||
@@ -569,6 +596,6 @@ | |||||
| 569 | year = {1989} | 596 | year = {1989} | ||
| 570 | } | 597 | } | ||
| 571 | 598 | ||||
| 572 | −@book{yoffee2005, title={Myths of the Archaic State: Evolution of the Earliest Cities, States, and Civilizations}, ISBN={9780511489662}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511489662}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511489662}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Yoffee, Norman}, year={2005}, month=Jan } | 599 | +@book{yoffee2005, title={Myths of the Archaic State: Evolution of the Earliest Cities, States, and Civilizations}, ISBN={9780511489662}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511489662}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511489662}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Yoffee, Norman}, year={2005}} | ||
| 573 | 600 | ||||
| 574 | −@article{young1993, title={The Evolution of Conventions}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951778}, DOI={10.2307/2951778}, number={1}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Young, H. Peyton}, year={1993}, month=Jan, pages={57} } | 601 | +@article{young1993, title={The Evolution of Conventions}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951778}, DOI={10.2307/2951778}, number={1}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Young, H. Peyton}, year={1993}, pages={57} } | ||
added
paper/sections/conclusion.tex
+8 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +\section{Conclusion} | ||||
| 2 | +\label{sec:conclusion} | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +We set out to state a universal theory of human coordination in a form that could be tested, and to test it. The statement survived: institutions as shared codes, records and routing structures that lower the communication cost per coordinated task are a coherent object, with five provable properties and a simulable cost structure, and the simulations show both the gains and the three ways institutions can hurt---unpaid set-up costs, saturated hierarchies, and task environments with too little regularity to compress. The test did not confirm the theory's empirical corollary. In the Seshat databank and in a two-century country-year panel, the mismatch between coordination demand and coordination capacity is associated with instability in the predicted direction, robustly across regions and eras, and yet it adds nothing identifiable to what scale alone (in history) or capacity alone (in modern states) already explain; a placebo does as well, past instability loads on the index as strongly as future instability, and the coefficient does not survive a standard adjustment for unobservables. Under the rule we committed to before looking, the universal framing is not supported, and we have written the narrower paper instead. | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +The result should be read for what it says about measurement as much as about the hypothesis. Scale and capacity are so tightly coupled across the historical record that their difference is a residual carrying one sixth of their joint variance; a mismatch index built from presence codes cannot track utilization in the sense the theory requires, and the data that would---message volumes, administrative workloads, backlogs, the reach rather than the existence of institutions---are not in any databank we know of. The one historical case in which such quantities have been reconstructed, \citeauthor{sng2014}'s late-imperial China, found the effect of distance on fiscal reach that the framework predicts. A credible next test would need either more cases of that kind, or a source of variation in demand or capacity unrelated to local instability, or a historical databank that codes institutional reach and administrative load rather than presence. Until then, the honest summary is that capacity matters, scale matters, and that whether their mismatch matters is a question the available evidence cannot answer. | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +Three things are offered for reuse: a pre-registration and measurement model for Seshat that treats missing as missing and carries ranges, dates and latent-score uncertainty through to inference; a validated bibliography and novelty matrix for the strands that converge on this hypothesis; and a factorial agent-based testbed in which the mechanisms are measurable. The replication package reproduces every number in this paper from the raw downloads with one command. | ||||
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| 1 | +\section{Data and historical measurement} | ||||
| 2 | +\label{sec:data} | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +Every source was downloaded by a script that records the release, URL, retrieval time, licence, size and SHA-256 hash of the raw file (Table~\ref{tab:sources}); raw files are preserved unmodified and never redistributed. All counts in this section are produced by the parsers and written to machine-readable diagnostics from which the tables are generated. Missing values are never recoded as absent, no fact is forward-filled across polities or periods, and no outcome is imputed---the lesson of the moralizing-gods episode \citep{beheim2021,whitehouse2023}. | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 7 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 8 | +\caption{Sources, releases and provenance. Hashes are the first twelve hexadecimal digits of the SHA-256 of the raw file as downloaded on 2026-11-01; the full registry is in the replication package.} | ||||
| 9 | +\label{tab:sources} | ||||
| 10 | +\begin{tabular}{L{4.6cm} L{4.0cm} L{3.0cm} r l} | ||||
| 11 | +\toprule | ||||
| 12 | +Dataset & Release & Licence & Bytes & SHA-256 \\ | ||||
| 13 | +\midrule | ||||
| 14 | +\input tables/tab_sources | ||||
| 15 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 16 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 17 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 18 | + | ||||
| 19 | +\subsection{Three panels, kept separate} | ||||
| 20 | +\label{sec:data-panels} | ||||
| 21 | + | ||||
| 22 | +\paragraph{Historical polities (Seshat Polaris-2026).} The Seshat Global History Databank codes historical polities on hundreds of variables from the published historiography \citep{turchin2015,francois2016}. We use the Polaris-2026 snapshot, the current official release, which contains 626 polities in 42 regions (35 natural geographic areas) spanning $-13{,}600$ to 2020 CE, and 56,274 coded facts in the social-complexity, warfare, religion and general sheets. Each fact carries a value or a value range (\texttt{value\_from}, \texttt{value\_to}), an optional date range, and flags for disputed and uncertain codes; presence variables are coded present (P), absent (A), inferred present (IP), inferred absent (IA) or unknown (SU). Two structural features of the release shape the design. First, only 2,503 facts carry a date; the other 93.7\% describe the whole polity period. A polity-year panel would therefore be an interpolation that the data do not support, and the historical unit of analysis is the polity, with region and era effects. Second, the release contains the CrisisDB ``crisis consequences'' table \citep{hoyer2023,hoyer2024}: for 166 crisis episodes in 150 polities, historians coded whether each of 21 consequences occurred, among them decline, collapse, civil war, uprising, fragmentation, loss of the capital, conquest, assassination and deposition. This is the independently coded instability outcome. It is also a crisis-selected sample: a polity without a CrisisDB record is one for which no crisis was coded, not one that had no crisis, so the outcome measures how badly a recorded crisis unfolded rather than whether one occurred. Table~\ref{tab:coverage} summarizes coverage; Figure~\ref{fig:coverage} shows the temporal distribution of polities and crises and the pattern of coded and missing indicators. | ||||
| 23 | + | ||||
| 24 | +\paragraph{Ethnographic societies (D-PLACE Ethnographic Atlas v3.3).} The Ethnographic Atlas \citep{murdock1967}, as curated in D-PLACE \citep{kirby2016}, describes 1,291 societies at an ethnographic focal year (between $-2000$ and 1965, most in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries) on a fixed set of categorical variables. We use mean size of local communities (EA031, eight ordinal categories converted to geometric midpoints of the category ranges printed in the codebook), population size (EA202, continuous), and jurisdictional hierarchy beyond the local community (EA033, from acephalous to four levels), with subsistence, agricultural intensity and class differentiation as covariates. Galton's problem---societies are related by descent and diffusion---is handled with Glottolog 5.3 language families (173 families among the 1,291 societies), regions, and spatial heteroskedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent standard errors \citep{conley1999,mace1994,dow2007}. The Atlas has no instability outcome and is used only for the capacity--scale association. | ||||
| 25 | + | ||||
| 26 | +\paragraph{Modern states (V-Dem v16 and Maddison 2023).} The Varieties of Democracy country-year dataset \citep{coppedge2020,pemstein2018} provides expert-coded institutional variables for 202 countries from 1789 to 2025; the Maddison Project Database 2023 \citep{bolt2024} provides population and GDP per capita, which we merge by ISO3 code (163 countries matched; the 39 unmatched V-Dem entities are mostly historical polities and micro-states and drop out of the population-based index). Outcomes are the first year of a civil war (Correlates-of-War coding carried in V-Dem, 1816--2006), a coup (1789--2008), and the last year of a V-Dem regime whose coded end type is a military or non-military coup, a self-coup, an assassination, a loss in civil or inter-state war, a foreign intervention or a popular uprising (1789--2025); natural deaths and guided or negotiated transitions are not events. We never map modern countries onto historical polities: the two panels answer the same hypotheses separately. | ||||
| 27 | + | ||||
| 28 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 29 | +\centering\small | ||||
| 30 | +\caption{Coverage of the three panels after parsing (counts produced by the build script).} | ||||
| 31 | +\label{tab:coverage} | ||||
| 32 | +\begin{tabular}{L{5.6cm} L{3.6cm} L{6.2cm}} | ||||
| 33 | +\toprule | ||||
| 34 | +Quantity & Value & Detail \\ | ||||
| 35 | +\midrule | ||||
| 36 | +\input tables/tab_coverage | ||||
| 37 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 38 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 39 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 40 | + | ||||
| 41 | +\begin{figure}[H] | ||||
| 42 | +\centering | ||||
| 43 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_seshat_temporal_coverage.pdf}\\[2mm] | ||||
| 44 | +\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{figures/fig_seshat_missingness.pdf} | ||||
| 45 | +\caption{Seshat Polaris-2026. Top: polity time spans by macro-region (left) and CrisisDB crisis start years (right). Bottom: coded (dark) versus missing (white) pre-registered indicators, polities sorted by number of coded indicators. Missing is never treated as absent.} | ||||
| 46 | +\label{fig:coverage} | ||||
| 47 | +\end{figure} | ||||
| 48 | + | ||||
| 49 | +\subsection{Coding rules and uncertainty} | ||||
| 50 | +\label{sec:data-coding} | ||||
| 51 | + | ||||
| 52 | +Presence codes are mapped to 1 (P, IP), 0 (A, IA) and 0.5 (disputed codes of the form A$\sim$P), with inferred codes flagged so that a sensitivity run can drop them; unknown (SU), blank and unparseable values are missing (132 of 56,274 facts were unparseable and are logged). Numeric ranges are summarized by their geometric midpoint for population, territory and largest-settlement population and by the arithmetic midpoint for level counts, and the bounds are kept: the paper re-estimates its main model at the lower and upper bounds. Dates are kept as intervals; a crisis is dated by the start of its coded interval; nothing is interpolated. When several facts exist for a polity and a variable, the polity value is the mean over facts (the mean log for logged variables); for each crisis record, ``pre-crisis'' aggregates use dated facts ending before the crisis start together with the undated whole-polity facts, which, given the date coverage, means that temporal precedence is weak and is acknowledged as such. | ||||
| 53 | + | ||||
| 54 | +\subsection{Demand, capacity, and the mismatch index} | ||||
| 55 | +\label{sec:data-measurement} | ||||
| 56 | + | ||||
| 57 | +The pre-registration fixed disjoint indicator sets before any outcome was examined. Coordination demand $D$ is scale: the first principal component of the pairwise-complete correlation matrix of log population, log territory, log largest-settlement population and settlement-hierarchy levels, scored as the loading-weighted mean of whatever is available for a polity (at least two of the four), with log population alone as the secondary measure. The component explains 82\% of the variance with nearly equal loadings and is defined for 442 polities. Coordination capacity $K$ is the unweighted mean of four block scores, each the share of coded indicators present and each requiring at least half of its indicators coded, with at least three blocks present: administration (full-time bureaucrats, specialized government buildings, merit promotion, examination system, rank-scaled administrative levels), standardized rules and money (legal code, judges, courts, professional lawyers, indigenous and foreign coins, paper currency, tokens, precious metals, articles), communication infrastructure (couriers, postal stations, general postal service, roads, bridges, canals, ports) and record-keeping (written records, script, phonetic and non-phonetic writing, lists and tables, calendar, practical literature, non-written records, mnemonic devices). $K$ is defined for 344 polities. Military, religious and production-infrastructure indicators are excluded from $K$ by design and serve as rival-explanation covariates. The mismatch index is $P = z(\log D) - z(K)$, standardized over the polity sample; because $K$ is a bounded share that can be zero, it is standardized rather than logged, a pre-registered deviation from the candidate formula in the mandate. In the modern panel $D$ is log population and $K$ the mean of six standardized V-Dem items---rigorous and impartial public administration, meritocratic appointment, transparent and predictably enforced laws, fiscal capacity, territorial control and election-management capacity---none of which is a democracy index; in the Atlas the capacity-side measure is the number of jurisdictional levels. | ||||
| 58 | + | ||||
| 59 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 60 | +\centering\small | ||||
| 61 | +\caption{Measurement model: construction and diagnostics. Values from the measurement diagnostics written by the index-building script; no outcome variable was read by that script.} | ||||
| 62 | +\label{tab:measurement} | ||||
| 63 | +\begin{tabular}{L{6.0cm} L{9.4cm}} | ||||
| 64 | +\toprule | ||||
| 65 | +Index & Construction and diagnostics \\ | ||||
| 66 | +\midrule | ||||
| 67 | +\input tables/tab_measurement | ||||
| 68 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 69 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 70 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 71 | + | ||||
| 72 | +Two alternatives to the block mean were pre-registered and are reported side by side: the first principal component of the four blocks, which correlates 0.999 with the mean, and a two-parameter logistic item-response model estimated by marginal maximum likelihood with mild priors on the thirty binary items, which handles item missingness through the likelihood rather than by imputation, is defined for 579 polities, and correlates 0.96 with the block mean. The latent score carries a median posterior standard deviation of 0.34 on a unit-variance scale, which is the honest measure of how uncertain an individual polity's capacity is. Item parameters refitted separately on the Old World and on the Americas and Oceania have difficulties correlated 0.88, so the ordering of institutions by rarity is similar across the two worlds, although the New-World sample (94 polities) is too small for a strict invariance test and the leave-region-out analyses are the operational safeguard. The block structure is stable: inter-block correlations are 0.75--0.79 overall, Cronbach's $\alpha$ across the four blocks is between 0.83 and 0.97 in every macro-region, and dropping any block leaves $K$ correlated at least 0.98 with the full index. | ||||
| 73 | + | ||||
| 74 | +The central measurement fact of the paper is collinearity (Figure~\ref{fig:measurement}, Table~\ref{tab:measurement}). Scale and capacity correlate 0.84 across polities, as the single-dimension result of \citet{turchin2018} implies, so the mismatch index retains only 17\% of the variance of $z(D)+z(K)$; it correlates 0.39 with $D$, $-0.18$ with $K$ and $-0.04$ with a Turchin-style first principal component of 57 social-complexity indicators. $P$ is a residual, nearly orthogonal to overall complexity. That is what would make it informative if it carried signal, and what makes it fragile: measurement error in either index leaks into it, and any association with $P$ can be a disguised association with one of its components. The pre-registered baselines (scale only, capacity only, complexity only, scale and capacity entered separately) exist to detect exactly this. | ||||
| 75 | + | ||||
| 76 | +\begin{figure}[H] | ||||
| 77 | +\centering | ||||
| 78 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_measurement_DK.pdf} | ||||
| 79 | +\caption{Measurement. Left: capacity index against the scale component across Seshat polities. Middle: block-mean against latent (IRT) capacity. Right: item difficulties from the two-parameter model (items ordered by block).} | ||||
| 80 | +\label{fig:measurement} | ||||
| 81 | +\end{figure} | ||||
| 82 | + | ||||
| 83 | +\subsection{A-priori power} | ||||
| 84 | +\label{sec:data-power} | ||||
| 85 | + | ||||
| 86 | +Before estimation, we drew random outcomes with the actual distribution of pre-crisis $P$ among the 127 crisis records with a defined index and computed power at the 5\% level with region-clustered standard errors (Table~\ref{tab:power}). For the binary ``severe outcome'' indicator (base rate 0.77) the minimum detectable effect at 80\% power is about 0.6 log-odds per standard deviation, above the pre-registered threshold of 0.5, so that outcome was declared underpowered before any result was seen and is reported as secondary. For the fractional severity share (base rate 0.29 over fourteen items) the minimum detectable effect is about 0.15, and that outcome is primary. | ||||
| 87 | + | ||||
| 88 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 89 | +\centering\small | ||||
| 90 | +\caption{A-priori power for the Seshat crisis-severity test (random outcomes, actual $P$ distribution, $n=127$, 400 replications per effect size).} | ||||
| 91 | +\label{tab:power} | ||||
| 92 | +\begin{tabular}{l r r r} | ||||
| 93 | +\toprule | ||||
| 94 | +Outcome & $\beta$ per SD of $P$ & Power & $n$ \\ | ||||
| 95 | +\midrule | ||||
| 96 | +\input tables/tab_power | ||||
| 97 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 98 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 99 | +\end{table} | ||||
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| 1 | +\section{Introduction} | ||||
| 2 | +\label{sec:intro} | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +Large societies coordinate. Taxes are assessed and collected, grain is stored and moved, disputes are settled, armies are raised, and the same unit of length is understood in two towns that have never exchanged a messenger. Each of these acts requires that people who do not know each other act on a shared description of the situation. The description has to be communicated, verified and remembered, and the cost of doing so grows with the number of people, the distances between them and the variety of things that must be agreed upon. The claim examined in this paper is that institutions---standardized rules, money, measurement systems, written records, administrative hierarchies, postal systems---are best understood as devices that lower that cost per coordinated task, in the ordinary sense in which a dictionary or a code lowers the cost of saying things: they compress. We call this reading the \emph{Social Compression Hypothesis} (SCH). Its empirical corollary, which gives it teeth, is that a society whose coordination \emph{demand} outruns its coordination \emph{capacity} should be more likely to experience institutional breakdown. | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +The idea has a long ancestry, which Section~\ref{sec:literature} documents. Scalar stress \citep{johnson1982}, administrative hierarchies as information-processing structures \citep{wright1975}, the declining marginal returns to complexity \citep{tainter1988}, organizational codes \citep{arrow1974,cremer2007} and the informational foundations of state capacity \citep{lee2017,brambor2020} all contain pieces of it. The closest precursor is \citet{shin2020}, who found in the Seshat databank a second axis of variation opposing scale to information-processing characteristics and wrote, explicitly as a conjecture left for future research, that a ``mismatch among aspects of social development should be considered as a generic cause of instability''. To our knowledge, no one has operationalized a demand--capacity mismatch, linked it to an independently coded instability outcome, and tested it with out-of-sample validation. That is what this paper does, and the answer it reaches is mostly negative. | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +We proceed in the order a skeptical reader would want. First, we make the compression reading precise. Five theorems (Section~\ref{sec:theory}) state when a shared code lowers expected communication per coordinated task (Shannon's source-coding bound), when the fixed cost of an institution is repaid (a break-even condition in scale and task intensity), what a code optimized for yesterday's tasks costs today (the Kullback--Leibler divergence), what hierarchical routing buys and what it concentrates at the apex, and how a backlog behaves when demand exceeds capacity (Lindley's recursion). None of these is new mathematics; their value is that they say exactly what a ``mismatch'' is in the model---the utilization $\rho = D/K$---and what would have to be true of historical proxies for an index such as $P = z(\log D) - z(K)$ to track it. We state that requirement as a conjecture, not a result. | ||||
| 9 | + | ||||
| 10 | +Second, we pre-registered the empirical tests before computing any association between predictors and outcomes (the frozen document and its hash are in the replication package). The pre-registration fixes the datasets, the unit of analysis, disjoint indicator sets for demand $D$ and capacity $K$, the outcomes, the horizon, the models, the baselines that $P$ must beat out of sample, the multiple-testing correction, a power calculation, the robustness set and the decision rule for abandoning the universal framing. We then built the indices from three real sources with full provenance: the Seshat Polaris-2026 release (626 polities; 56,274 facts, of which only 2,503 are dated; a CrisisDB table of crisis consequences for 150 polities) \citep{turchin2015,hoyer2023}, the D-PLACE Ethnographic Atlas v3.3 \citep{kirby2016,murdock1967}, and a V-Dem v16 country-year panel \citep{coppedge2020} merged with Maddison 2023 population \citep{bolt2024}. Measurement is done twice, with a transparent block index and a two-parameter latent-variable model, and uncertainty in ranges and dates is carried through. | ||||
| 11 | + | ||||
| 12 | +Third, we report what the pre-registered tests found (Sections~\ref{sec:hist} and~\ref{sec:modern}). Capacity and scale are positively associated in every dataset, as the framework and much prior work predict, although the direction is not identified. The mismatch index $P$ is positively associated with how badly a recorded crisis unfolds in Seshat (about $0.20$ log-odds per standard deviation, stable when any macro-region or era is held out) and with the probability of a civil war, coup or irregular regime end in the following five years in modern states (about $0.40$ per standard deviation). But the pre-registration asked a harder question than whether $\beta_P$ is positive: it asked whether $P$ beats the obvious baselines out of sample. It does not. In Seshat, a scale-only model does as well, a placebo index that replaces capacity with production infrastructure does as well, and $P$ loses to scale alone when regions are held out. In the modern panel, a capacity-only model does as well or better in every forward-chaining and leave-one-region-out comparison, past instability is associated with $P$ as strongly as future instability, and an Oster-type adjustment for unobservables reverses the sign. We find no threshold in Seshat and a nonlinearity of negligible size in the modern panel. Polity duration and discontinuous succession are unrelated to $P$. Under the decision rule we wrote down in advance, the universal framing is not supported: scale and capacity each carry signal, their difference carries none that we can identify. | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +Fourth, we report the constructive part. Factorial agent-based experiments with five \emph{imposed} institutional regimes (Section~\ref{sec:sim}; 6,048 main runs, 584 ablation runs, all labelled \SIM) measure messages, bits, success rates, latency, overhead, welfare and inequality directly. Shared codes and records lower the operating cost per successful task in essentially every cell and raise success by eliminating decoding errors between heterogeneous agents; the stale-code penalty after a distribution shock equals the divergence to within the rounding of Theorem~\ref{thm:stale}; hierarchies fail abruptly when relayed load exceeds administrative capacity, and federated routing keeps most of the benefit at half the capacity. The same experiments locate where institutions hurt: a learning cost of 200 bits per agent is repaid only with a large and concentrated task space and a long horizon, saturated centralized hierarchies do worse than no institution at all, and a code can be longer than raw description when the task distribution is nearly uniform. These are the cases the framework predicts, and they are the cases historians describe. | ||||
| 15 | + | ||||
| 16 | +The contribution, then, is threefold. We give the compression reading of institutions a formal statement that distinguishes what is proved from what is conjectured. We provide the first pre-registered, out-of-sample test of the demand--capacity mismatch conjecture on real historical and modern data, with a negative result that we think is more useful than another positive one would have been, because it shows that the mismatch, as it can be measured today, is a residual of two collinear quantities. And we provide a simulation testbed in which the mechanisms that the historical record cannot reveal---message counts, code lengths, queue saturation---can be measured. Section~\ref{sec:synth} states the scope conditions that survive, Section~\ref{sec:limits} the limitations, and Section~\ref{sec:conclusion} what a credible next test would require. | ||||
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| 1 | +\section{Limitations} | ||||
| 2 | +\label{sec:limits} | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +The limitations were written down during the analysis and before this section; the full list is in the replication package. The ones that bear on how the results should be read are these. | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +\paragraph{Data.} The CrisisDB outcome is crisis-selected (150 of 626 polities), so the Seshat test concerns the severity of recorded crises, not their occurrence. Only 6\% of Polaris facts are dated, so pre-crisis capacity is in practice whole-polity capacity and temporal precedence is weak; a dated-only test was not estimable. Seshat capacity items record the existence of institutions, not their reach, quality or cost, and the demand side is scale only because the databank has no usable indicator of division of labour or dispersion. Institutional codes and crisis codes come from the same project and overlapping historiography, which permits circularity that the inferred-code and late-crisis sensitivities can only partly address. Seshat polity boundaries are periodization decisions, so polity duration is not an instability outcome. In the modern panel, the six capacity items correlate 0.75 with electoral democracy and are rated by experts who know what came later; population begins in 1820 for most countries and there is no dispersion measure; 39 V-Dem entities without Maddison population drop out. The Ethnographic Atlas is a cross-section with coarse ordinal community sizes and no outcome. | ||||
| 7 | + | ||||
| 8 | +\paragraph{Design.} Nothing is identified causally. The negative control shows that the modern mismatch is associated with past instability as strongly as with future instability; the Oster adjustment crosses zero and the robustness value is 0.07. The Seshat binary outcome was underpowered in advance. There are 42 regions and ten macro-regions, so cluster-robust inference is anti-conservative and alternative clusterings are reported. The verdict on H2 rests on a pre-registered out-of-sample rule against baselines, which is the right test of ``beyond conventional baselines'' but is also a demanding one at $n=127$; we report the fold-level results so that readers who prefer a different rule can apply it. The Equinox-2020 replication listed in the pre-registration was not executed and is recorded as a blocked task in the audit. | ||||
| 9 | + | ||||
| 10 | +\paragraph{Theory.} The theorems describe an idealized communication system in which capacity is exogenous; historically it is built in response to demand. The conjectures that link the framework to the proxies are exactly what the measurement results call into question: with scale and capacity correlated 0.84, the proxy $P$ retains 17\% of their joint variance, and a residual of that kind cannot be assumed to track utilization. | ||||
| 11 | + | ||||
| 12 | +\paragraph{Simulation.} Regimes are imposed; the model says nothing about emergence. Bit and message accounting is stylized, and only within-simulation comparisons are meaningful. Decoding success does not depend on the plan drawn, so distribution shocks affect cost but not success by construction. The saturation of hierarchies follows from a free parameter swept across its range; it is confirmed, not discovered. Shannon rather than Huffman codes are used so that the stale-code penalty is comparable to the theorem. | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +\paragraph{Process.} The study was executed autonomously by a language-model agent under a human mandate in a single session: the pre-registration, code, analyses and text were produced by the agent, with the mandate's prohibitions on fabrication, imputation of missing data as zero and unapproved spending enforced by the execution log and the replication package. The principal investigator has not yet reviewed the code or the text at the time of writing; three adversarial reviews commissioned from independent reviewer personas and the responses to them are included in the package. Reference verification relied on Crossref metadata and primary-source abstracts; the chapter contents of \citet{johnson1982} and the published tables of \citet{sng2014} were not read. | ||||
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| 1 | +% ============================================================================ | ||||
| 2 | +% Related work and contribution | ||||
| 3 | +% ============================================================================ | ||||
| 4 | +\section{Related work and contribution} | ||||
| 5 | +\label{sec:literature} | ||||
| 6 | + | ||||
| 7 | +Every reference in this section was checked against Crossref by DOI or bibliographic query on 1~November 2026 | ||||
| 8 | +(\texttt{research/prior\_art.csv}, \texttt{research/bib\_overrides.csv}); the abstracts and key results of the | ||||
| 9 | +eighteen works closest to our hypothesis were read from primary or repository sources in a separate verification pass | ||||
| 10 | +(\texttt{docs/novelty\_search\_report.md}). Works that we know only through reviews or citing articles are flagged in | ||||
| 11 | +footnotes and are cited for their general thesis only. | ||||
| 12 | + | ||||
| 13 | +\subsection{Scalar stress and information-processing hierarchies} | ||||
| 14 | +\label{sec:lit-scalar} | ||||
| 15 | + | ||||
| 16 | +The oldest form of our idea is \citeauthor{johnson1982}'s \emph{scalar stress}:\footnote{Known to us through | ||||
| 17 | +library records and through \citet{alberti2014}; the chapter itself was not read.} as the number of units that must be | ||||
| 18 | +coordinated grows, the communication and decision load grows faster than linearly, and groups respond either by fission | ||||
| 19 | +or by adding a hierarchical level, with a modal span of about six units per level \citep{johnson1982}. \citet{alberti2014} | ||||
| 20 | +estimate a related fission threshold on Hutterite colonies. \citet{wright1975} define the state as a specialized | ||||
| 21 | +administrative hierarchy with at least three decision-making levels and reject population growth and exchange as single | ||||
| 22 | +sufficient causes of its emergence in Susiana; \citet{johnson1978} extends the information-processing reading of | ||||
| 23 | +decision-making organizations. \citet{carneiro1967} documents the log-log regularity between population and the number | ||||
| 24 | +of organizational traits, \citet{naroll1956} proposes an early index of social development, \citet{feinman2011} reviews the | ||||
| 25 | +size--complexity relation, and \citet{flannery1972} frames institutional evolution as a change in information-processing | ||||
| 26 | +architecture. None of this strand builds a demand/capacity \emph{ratio}, and none tests it against instability. | ||||
| 27 | + | ||||
| 28 | +\subsection{Declining returns and collapse} | ||||
| 29 | +\label{sec:lit-collapse} | ||||
| 30 | + | ||||
| 31 | +\citet{tainter1988} argues that complexity is a problem-solving investment with declining marginal returns, so that | ||||
| 32 | +collapse (simplification) eventually becomes rational and the society loses its capacity to absorb shocks.\footnote{Content | ||||
| 33 | +known from reviews and secondary sources; the book was not re-read for this paper.} \citet{middleton2017}, | ||||
| 34 | +\citet{butzer2012} and \citet{cline2014} review the collapse literature and warn against mono-causal accounts. | ||||
| 35 | +Structural-demographic theory \citep{turchin2003,turchin2009,turchin2023} models secular cycles driven by population | ||||
| 36 | +pressure, elite overproduction and fiscal distress; \citet{goldstone1991} is its historical origin. \citet{sng2014} is | ||||
| 37 | +the closest economic precedent: in late-imperial China the cost of transmitting information over distance creates a | ||||
| 38 | +principal--agent problem whose severity rises with territorial size, so that fiscal capacity decays during the | ||||
| 39 | +prosperous eighteenth century---a demand (territory) versus capacity (monitoring) argument, tested within a single | ||||
| 40 | +polity with prefecture-level data. Using the Seshat CrisisDB, \citet{hoyer2024} show that crisis consequences are | ||||
| 41 | +heterogeneous, largely uncorrelated with one another, and not well predicted by territory, religion or administrative | ||||
| 42 | +complexity taken one at a time (``no typical societal crisis''). | ||||
| 43 | + | ||||
| 44 | +\subsection{Seshat-based quantitative history} | ||||
| 45 | +\label{sec:lit-seshat} | ||||
| 46 | + | ||||
| 47 | +The Seshat Global History Databank \citep{turchin2015,francois2016} underlies a growing quantitative literature. | ||||
| 48 | +\citet{turchin2018} found that nine complexity characteristics (population, territory, capital population, hierarchical | ||||
| 49 | +levels, government, infrastructure, writing, texts, money) load on a single principal component explaining about three | ||||
| 50 | +quarters of the variance across 414 polity-centuries. \citet{shin2020} decomposed the remaining variance and identified a | ||||
| 51 | +second axis opposing \emph{scale} characteristics to \emph{information-processing} characteristics, defined a ``scale | ||||
| 52 | +threshold'' and an ``information threshold'' along the first component, and wrote---explicitly as a conjecture left for | ||||
| 53 | +future research---that ``mismatch among aspects of social development should be considered as a generic cause of | ||||
| 54 | +instability''. \citet{miranda2020} clustered Seshat polities into two super-types with an unstable transitional cluster | ||||
| 55 | +in which polities dwell only a few centuries. \citet{turchin2022} compared more than 100{,}000 predictor combinations for | ||||
| 56 | +the \emph{growth} of complexity and found agricultural productivity interacting with military technology best supported; | ||||
| 57 | +they did not model instability. Related Seshat-based work includes \citet{currie2010} on the rise and fall of political | ||||
| 58 | +complexity in Austronesia, \citet{sheehan2018} on the coevolution of intensive agriculture and hierarchy, | ||||
| 59 | +\citet{kohler2017,kohler2018} on long-run inequality, \citet{peregrine2017,peregrine2019} on resilience to disasters, | ||||
| 60 | +and \citet{hoyer2023} on the long-run factors that shape responses to changing climate. | ||||
| 61 | +\citet{whitehouse2019} was retracted \citep{whitehouse2021retraction} after \citet{beheim2021} showed that recoding | ||||
| 62 | +missing moralizing-god data as ``absent'' drove the result; the Seshat team's ``retake'' \citep{whitehouse2023} reports | ||||
| 63 | +qualitatively similar conclusions with corrected coding, and \citet{slingerland2020} record the historians' objections. | ||||
| 64 | +The methodological lesson---never treat unknown as absent, never forward-fill, report results on extant data---is | ||||
| 65 | +written into our pre-registration. | ||||
| 66 | + | ||||
| 67 | +\subsection{State capacity and its informational foundations} | ||||
| 68 | +\label{sec:lit-capacity} | ||||
| 69 | + | ||||
| 70 | +\citet{mann1984,mann1986} distinguish despotic from \emph{infrastructural} power; \citet{soifer2008} and | ||||
| 71 | +\citet{hanson2021} discuss its measurement, the latter with a Bayesian latent model over 21 indicators for 1960--2015. | ||||
| 72 | +\citet{scott1998} describes \emph{legibility}---standardized names, cadastres, censuses, weights and measures---as the | ||||
| 73 | +state's way of making society readable, and \citet{scott2017} traces it to the earliest states. \citet{lee2017} | ||||
| 74 | +operationalize legibility through age-heaping in censuses and show that it predicts tax contributions; | ||||
| 75 | +\citet{brambor2020} build an ``information capacity'' index (census, statistical agency, yearbooks, civil and population | ||||
| 76 | +registers) for 85 polities since 1789; \citet{darcy2017} use cadastral records. \citet{besley2009,besley2011}, | ||||
| 77 | +\citet{dincecco2017}, \citet{johnson2017}, \citet{mayshar2022}, \citet{borcan2018} and \citet{acemoglu2001} study the | ||||
| 78 | +origins and consequences of fiscal and legal capacity; \citet{gennaioli2015} link capacity to military competition, as do | ||||
| 79 | +\citet{tilly1992}, \citet{mcneill1982} and \citet{hoffman2015}. \citet{stasavage2010} shows that geographic scale limited | ||||
| 80 | +representative assemblies in Europe---a direct instance of distance-driven coordination cost---and | ||||
| 81 | +\citet{stasavage2020,ahmed2020} and \citet{blaydes2013} trace the long-run divergence of political institutions; | ||||
| 82 | +\citet{ko2018}, \citet{fernandezvillaverde2023}, \citet{scheidel2019} and \citet{dincecco2018} compare China and Europe. | ||||
| 83 | +Classic comparative treatments of empires and bureaucracy are \citet{weber1922}, \citet{eisenstadt1963}, | ||||
| 84 | +\citet{trigger2003}, \citet{yoffee2005}, \citet{blanton2008}, \citet{fukuyama2011} and \citet{graeber2021}. None of these | ||||
| 85 | +operationalize a \emph{ratio} of coordination demand to capacity, nor test it against instability across pre-modern | ||||
| 86 | +polities. | ||||
| 87 | + | ||||
| 88 | +\subsection{Transaction costs, codes and communication in organizations} | ||||
| 89 | +\label{sec:lit-codes} | ||||
| 90 | + | ||||
| 91 | +\citet{coase1937}, \citet{williamson1985} and \citet{north1990,north1991} treat institutions as devices that economize on | ||||
| 92 | +transaction costs; \citet{hayek1945} on dispersed knowledge, \citet{simon1955} on bounded rationality and | ||||
| 93 | +\citet{simon1962} on near-decomposable hierarchies are the classic information-processing views. \citet{arrow1974} | ||||
| 94 | +introduced organizational \emph{codes};\footnote{Verified only through secondary citations.} \citet{cremer2007} model the | ||||
| 95 | +firm's language as a code of bounded size in which precise words go to frequent events---literally lossy compression that | ||||
| 96 | +trades scope against precision. \citet{marschak1972}, \citet{radner1993}, \citet{bolton1994}, \citet{vanzandt1999} and | ||||
| 97 | +\citet{garicano2000} model hierarchies as information-processing networks with explicit communication costs; | ||||
| 98 | +\citet{dessein2002} and \citet{dewatripont2005} study authority and modes of communication; \citet{crawford1982}, | ||||
| 99 | +\citet{hagenbach2010}, \citet{galeotti2013} and \citet{calvoarmengol2015} analyze strategic communication on networks. | ||||
| 100 | +Mechanism-design results bound the \emph{message-space size} needed to implement allocations | ||||
| 101 | +\citep{mount1974,segal2007,nisan2006}, and communication complexity \citep{yao1979,kushilevitz1997} gives the | ||||
| 102 | +computer-science counterpart. The business-history literature documents the same economizing in practice: | ||||
| 103 | +\citet{chandler1977}, \citet{yates1989}, \citet{beniger1986} and, earlier, \citet{innis1950}. These results are the formal | ||||
| 104 | +basis for Section~\ref{sec:theory}, but they concern firms, markets or abstract protocols, not polities. | ||||
| 105 | + | ||||
| 106 | +\subsection{Coordination, common knowledge and conventions} | ||||
| 107 | +\label{sec:lit-coord} | ||||
| 108 | + | ||||
| 109 | +\citet{lewis1969} and \citet{schelling1960} define conventions and focal points; \citet{young1993}, | ||||
| 110 | +\citet{kandori1993} and \citet{ellison1993} show how conventions are selected and how local interaction speeds | ||||
| 111 | +convergence; \citet{morris2000} on contagion and \citet{skyrms2010} on signalling complete the picture. | ||||
| 112 | +\citet{chwe2000,chwe2001} argues that coordination requires \emph{common knowledge} and that rituals and public | ||||
| 113 | +communication structures exist to manufacture it cheaply; \citet{rubinstein1989} shows that almost-common knowledge is | ||||
| 114 | +not enough. \citet{morris2002} and \citet{angeletos2007} quantify the social value of public signals, and \citet{dewan2008} | ||||
| 115 | +model leaders as coordination devices. \citet{ostrom1990,ostrom2010} and \citet{olson1965} are the collective-action | ||||
| 116 | +anchors; \citet{boyd1985,boyd1988}, \citet{henrich2004}, \citet{richerson2016} and \citet{turchin2016} supply the | ||||
| 117 | +cultural-evolution mechanisms for norm maintenance in large groups, \citet{gavrilets2008} and \citet{turchin2009gavrilets} | ||||
| 118 | +the evolutionary dynamics of hierarchy, and \citet{stanish2017} the role of ritual in stateless societies; | ||||
| 119 | +\citet{greif1993,greif2006} and \citet{milgrom1990} are the historical cases of reputation- and record-based enforcement. | ||||
| 120 | + | ||||
| 121 | +\subsection{Scaling and information theory} | ||||
| 122 | +\label{sec:lit-scaling} | ||||
| 123 | + | ||||
| 124 | +\citet{bettencourt2007,bettencourt2013}, \citet{ortman2014} and \citet{lobo2020} show superlinear scaling of | ||||
| 125 | +socioeconomic outputs with settlement population, ancient and modern; \citet{dunbar1993} and \citet{hamilton2007} | ||||
| 126 | +document scaling constraints in small-scale societies. Scaling theory implies that interaction demand grows faster than | ||||
| 127 | +population, but it assumes that infrastructure and institutions co-scale; it predicts benefits, not instability. | ||||
| 128 | +\citet{dedeo2017} is the closest explicit statement that transitions in political order are driven by | ||||
| 129 | +information-processing innovations and that coarse-graining (lossy compression) is the central mechanism; | ||||
| 130 | +\citet{wolpert2017} surveys state-space compression, and \citet{marzen2017} give a rate-distortion model with a | ||||
| 131 | +high-fidelity regime (cost linear in environmental complexity) and a low-fidelity regime. \citet{flack2012,flack2017}, | ||||
| 132 | +\citet{daniels2017} and \citet{krakauer2020} develop coarse-graining and collective computation in animal societies; | ||||
| 133 | +\citet{hidalgo2015} popularizes the information-growth view of economies. \citet{shannon1948} and \citet{cover2006} are | ||||
| 134 | +cited only for the definitions used in the simulations, where messages and distributions are actually defined. | ||||
| 135 | +To our knowledge no published work uses the name ``Social Compression Hypothesis'' (search of 1~November 2026), but the | ||||
| 136 | +idea has the clear ancestors listed above, which this paper credits. | ||||
| 137 | + | ||||
| 138 | +\subsection{Instability forecasting and methods} | ||||
| 139 | +\label{sec:lit-methods} | ||||
| 140 | + | ||||
| 141 | +\citet{goldstone2010} forecast instability onsets for 1955--2003 with regime type as the dominant predictor; | ||||
| 142 | +\citet{fearon2003} and \citet{hegre2001} are the civil-war baselines, and \citet{cederman2003} models the size | ||||
| 143 | +distribution of wars. For binary time-series--cross-section data we follow \citet{beck1998} and \citet{carter2010}; | ||||
| 144 | +for event history, \citet{cox1972} and \citet{boxsteffensmeier2004}; for logistic calibration, \citet{hosmer2013}; for | ||||
| 145 | +clustered and spatial inference, \citet{cameron2015} and \citet{conley1999}; for sensitivity to unobservables, | ||||
| 146 | +\citet{oster2019} and \citet{cinelli2020}; for Galton's problem, \citet{mace1994} and \citet{dow2007}; for latent | ||||
| 147 | +measurement, \citet{bollen1989}, \citet{samejima1969}, \citet{treier2008} and \citet{pemstein2018}; for agent-based | ||||
| 148 | +modelling, \citet{epstein1996}, \citet{axtell2002}, \citet{macy2002}, \citet{watts1998} and \citet{jackson2008}; and for | ||||
| 149 | +pre-registration and the statistical crisis, \citet{nosek2018} and \citet{gelman2014}. Data sources are documented by | ||||
| 150 | +\citet{seshat2026}, \citet{kirby2016} and \citet{murdock1967}, \citet{bolt2024}, \citet{coppedge2020} and | ||||
| 151 | +\citet{vdem2026}, and \citet{glottolog2026}. | ||||
| 152 | + | ||||
| 153 | +\subsection{Novelty matrix} | ||||
| 154 | +\label{sec:novelty} | ||||
| 155 | + | ||||
| 156 | +Table~\ref{tab:novelty} summarizes which elements of the Social Compression Hypothesis already exist in the closest | ||||
| 157 | +works. The ranking by overlap is: \citet{shin2020} (a verbal mismatch--instability conjecture, declared untested); | ||||
| 158 | +\citet{johnson1982} (scalar stress); \citet{sng2014} (distance-driven information cost, one polity); \citet{tainter1988}; | ||||
| 159 | +the codes-as-compression micro-foundation of \citet{arrow1974}, \citet{cremer2007} and \citet{dedeo2017}; | ||||
| 160 | +\citet{miranda2020}; the CrisisDB results of \citet{hoyer2024}; and the settlement-scaling literature as a foil. | ||||
| 161 | + | ||||
| 162 | +\begin{sidewaystable} | ||||
| 163 | +\centering | ||||
| 164 | +\footnotesize | ||||
| 165 | +\caption{Novelty matrix: elements of the Social Compression Hypothesis in the closest prior work} | ||||
| 166 | +\label{tab:novelty} | ||||
| 167 | +\begin{tabular}{@{}lllllllll@{}} | ||||
| 168 | +\toprule | ||||
| 169 | +Work & Demand/scale & Capacity & Mismatch & Instability & Cross-polity & Comm.\ cost & Simul. \\ | ||||
| 170 | +\midrule | ||||
| 171 | +\citet{johnson1982} & group size & hierarchy levels & implicit & fission (ethnogr.) & -- & verbal & -- \\ | ||||
| 172 | +\citet{wright1975} & settlement hier. & admin.\ levels & -- & -- & one region & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 173 | +\citet{tainter1988} & -- & complexity & -- & collapse (cases) & -- & verbal & -- \\ | ||||
| 174 | +\citet{sng2014} & territory, distance & monitoring & implicit & fiscal decay & one polity & \checkmark & -- \\ | ||||
| 175 | +\citet{turchin2018} & pop., territory & govt., writing & -- & -- & \checkmark & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 176 | +\citet{shin2020} & PC2 scale side & PC2 info.\ side & verbal & conjectured & \checkmark & verbal & -- \\ | ||||
| 177 | +\citet{miranda2020} & cluster features & cluster features & -- & dwell time & \checkmark & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 178 | +\citet{turchin2022} & complexity (outcome) & -- & -- & -- & \checkmark & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 179 | +\citet{hoyer2023,hoyer2024} & territory (covariate) & admin.\ (covariate) & -- & CrisisDB & \checkmark & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 180 | +\citet{lee2017,brambor2020} & -- & legibility, info.\ capacity & -- & -- & modern & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 181 | +\citet{hanson2021} & -- & latent capacity & -- & -- & modern & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 182 | +\citet{goldstone2010} & pop.\ threshold & regime type & -- & onsets & modern & -- & -- \\ | ||||
| 183 | +\citet{cremer2007,arrow1974} & org.\ scope & code size & trade-off & -- & -- & \checkmark & -- \\ | ||||
| 184 | +\citet{chwe2000,chwe2001} & network & common knowledge & -- & -- & -- & \checkmark & -- \\ | ||||
| 185 | +\citet{bettencourt2013,ortman2014} & settlement pop. & infrastructure & -- & -- & \checkmark & interaction & -- \\ | ||||
| 186 | +\citet{dedeo2017,marzen2017} & -- & coarse-graining & -- & -- & -- & rate--distortion & -- \\ | ||||
| 187 | +\midrule | ||||
| 188 | +This paper & $\log$ pop., territory, largest settlement, hierarchy & 4 disjoint blocks (mean, IRT, PC) & $P=z(\log D)-z(K)$ & CrisisDB severity; hazard; modern onsets & Seshat, EA, V-Dem & propositions & factorial ABM \\ | ||||
| 189 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 190 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 191 | +\end{sidewaystable} | ||||
| 192 | + | ||||
| 193 | +\subsection{Precise contributions and non-claims} | ||||
| 194 | +\label{sec:contributions} | ||||
| 195 | + | ||||
| 196 | +\begin{enumerate} | ||||
| 197 | +\item \emph{Empirical.} The first pre-registered test of the scale/information mismatch conjecture of \citet{shin2020} | ||||
| 198 | + against an independently coded instability outcome (the Seshat CrisisDB), with a transparent and a latent measurement | ||||
| 199 | + model, propagated uncertainty, and out-of-sample validation, replicated in form on a modern country-year panel. The | ||||
| 200 | + result is negative in the pre-registered sense: the mismatch index $P$ is associated with crisis severity and with | ||||
| 201 | + modern instability onsets, but it does not predict either outcome beyond its own components (scale in the historical | ||||
| 202 | + panel, capacity in the modern panel), fails the out-of-sample rule against those baselines, and performs no better than | ||||
| 203 | + a placebo index in the historical panel. What survives is that scale predicts crisis severity among crisis cases and | ||||
| 204 | + that capacity predicts fewer onsets in modern states---neither of which is new, and neither of which is the Social | ||||
| 205 | + Compression Hypothesis. | ||||
| 206 | +\item \emph{Theoretical.} Formal propositions stating when a shared code or record system lowers the expected | ||||
| 207 | + communication cost per coordinated task as a function of scale, when fixed institutional overhead makes it worse, by | ||||
| 208 | + how much a stale code raises cost after a shock, and when hierarchies saturate; each is stated as a theorem with proof | ||||
| 209 | + or as a conjecture, never as an empirical fact. | ||||
| 210 | +\item \emph{Simulated.} A factorial agent-based comparison of five imposed institutional regimes with directly measured | ||||
| 211 | + messages, bits, success rates and overhead, including an explicit search for regimes in which institutions reduce | ||||
| 212 | + efficiency or add fragility (set-up costs that are never repaid, saturated hierarchies, weakly concentrated plan spaces). | ||||
| 213 | +\item \emph{Not claimed.} No causal identification in either panel; no literal Shannon compression of historical | ||||
| 214 | + institutions; no universal theory. The name ``Social Compression Hypothesis'' has no prior academic use that we could | ||||
| 215 | + find, but the idea has clear ancestors (Table~\ref{tab:novelty}), which this paper credits, and the data do not support | ||||
| 216 | + the universal framing under which the project was mandated. | ||||
| 217 | +\end{enumerate} | ||||
added
paper/sections/methods.tex
+41 −0
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| 1 | +\section{Econometric methods and identification} | ||||
| 2 | +\label{sec:methods} | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +\subsection{Pre-registration} | ||||
| 5 | +\label{sec:methods-prereg} | ||||
| 6 | + | ||||
| 7 | +The analysis plan was frozen before any predictor--outcome association was computed; its SHA-256 hash is recorded in the decision log and every deviation is a numbered amendment. The plan fixes five hypotheses with falsifiers (H1: capacity and scale are positively associated conditional on era, region and rival covariates, with no direction claimed; H2: lagged mismatch predicts subsequent instability \emph{beyond} scale-only, capacity-only, complexity-only and persistence baselines, judged out of sample; H3: in simulation, shared protocols and institutions lower communication cost per successfully coordinated task; H4: a threshold form outperforms a smooth form out of sample; H5: estimates keep their sign in every held-out macro-region and era, otherwise the domain is narrowed), the samples and exclusions, the disjoint indicator sets of Section~\ref{sec:data-measurement}, three primary tests with a Holm correction (H1 in Seshat, H2 on Seshat crisis severity, H2 on the modern composite outcome), a robustness set, and the rule for abandoning the universal framing: if H2 fails in both panels, the paper reports the hypothesis as not supported and keeps only what survived. | ||||
| 8 | + | ||||
| 9 | +\subsection{Historical polities} | ||||
| 10 | +\label{sec:methods-hist} | ||||
| 11 | + | ||||
| 12 | +For H1 we regress the scale component on the capacity index with macro-region and era fixed effects (ten macro-regions grouping the 42 Seshat regions; six era blocks on the polity midpoint), with and without the rival covariates (warfare-technology index, production-infrastructure index, military professionalization), with standard errors clustered by Seshat region, and we repeat the exercise with a region random intercept, with the latent capacity score, with the four blocks entered separately, and without quasi-polities. | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +For H2 the primary outcome is crisis severity $Y_1$, the share of the fourteen instability consequences coded present among those coded at all for a CrisisDB record (unknown codes are missing, never zero). The model is a fractional logit, | ||||
| 15 | +\begin{equation} | ||||
| 16 | +\mathbb{E}[Y_{1,c}] = \Lambda\!\left(\alpha + \beta\, P_{i(c)} + \gamma' X_{i(c)} + \mu_{r(c)} + \tau_{e(c)}\right), | ||||
| 17 | +\label{eq:h2a} | ||||
| 18 | +\end{equation} | ||||
| 19 | +where $P_{i(c)}$ is the pre-crisis mismatch of the polity of crisis $c$, $X$ contains the warfare-technology and production-infrastructure indices and an indicator that an epidemic accompanied the crisis, and $\mu$ and $\tau$ are macro-region and era effects; standard errors are clustered by Seshat region (alternatively by natural geographic area and by polity). The binary secondary outcome $Y_{1b}$---any of collapse, fragmentation, century-long conflict, conquest or civil war coded present, defined only when all five are coded---is fitted by logit; several region--era cells are all-severe, so era effects are dropped for that outcome and heteroskedasticity-robust errors are used. Baselines are fitted on the same observations: fixed effects only, scale only, capacity only, a Turchin-style complexity component, a persistence indicator (an earlier CrisisDB crisis in the same natural geographic area), and scale and capacity entered separately. A placebo index replaces $K$ with the production-infrastructure share that was excluded from $K$ by design. Out-of-sample comparison uses leave-one-macro-region-out folds (region effects removed) and ten repetitions of five-fold cross-validation; the pre-registered rule is that $P$ ``beats'' a baseline if its mean out-of-sample log-likelihood is higher in at least 80\% of folds. For H4, a hinge model whose knot is chosen by profile likelihood on the training fold only and a natural cubic spline with three degrees of freedom are compared with the linear form on the same folds. For H5, $\beta$ is re-estimated with each macro-region and each era held out, and, where the held-out block has at least twelve crisis records, within the block. | ||||
| 20 | + | ||||
| 21 | +Two secondary historical outcomes use all polities. Polity duration (end year minus start year) is modelled by a Cox proportional-hazards regression stratified by macro-region, with the polity's end as the event and right-censoring for polities that reach 1900, robust errors clustered by region and a Schoenfeld test \citep{cox1972,boxsteffensmeier2004}; discontinuous succession---the successor polity's relationship to its predecessor coded as anything other than continuity---is modelled by logit. Both are reported with the caveat that Seshat polity boundaries are periodization decisions. | ||||
| 22 | + | ||||
| 23 | +\subsection{Ethnographic societies} | ||||
| 24 | +\label{sec:methods-ea} | ||||
| 25 | + | ||||
| 26 | +Log community size is regressed on jurisdictional levels with subsistence, agricultural intensity, class differentiation and region controls; standard errors are Conley spatial HAC with 500 and 1{,}000 km cut-offs \citep{conley1999} and, alternatively, clustered by Glottolog language family. The reverse specification, an ordered logit of jurisdictional levels on log community size, is reported with family-clustered errors. | ||||
| 27 | + | ||||
| 28 | +\subsection{Modern states} | ||||
| 29 | +\label{sec:methods-modern} | ||||
| 30 | + | ||||
| 31 | +The modern outcome $Y_{456}$ equals one if a civil-war onset, a coup or an irregular regime end occurs in $(t, t+5]$ and is missing if no year in the window is coded. The primary model is a pooled logit with region and year fixed effects and country-clustered standard errors, | ||||
| 32 | +\begin{equation} | ||||
| 33 | +\Pr(Y_{456,i,t+1..t+5} = 1) = \Lambda\!\left(\alpha + \beta P_{it} + \gamma' X_{it} + \mu_{r(i)} + \tau_t\right), | ||||
| 34 | +\label{eq:h2c} | ||||
| 35 | +\end{equation} | ||||
| 36 | +with $X$ containing log GDP per capita, the V-Dem electoral-democracy index (because the capacity items correlate 0.75 with it) and a cubic in years since the last event \citep{carter2010,beck1998}; a conditional logit with country and decade effects and a linear probability model with country and year effects are secondary \citep{cameron2015}. Baselines are population only, capacity only, development only, persistence (an event in the previous five years), and population and capacity entered separately; the placebo index replaces $K$ with the democracy index. Two negative controls are pre-registered: events in $[t-5, t-1]$ regressed on $P_t$ with the same controls should not load more strongly than future events, and the placebo should not perform as well as $P$. Out-of-sample validation is by forward chaining (train to 1945, test 1946--1975; train to 1975, test 1976--2005; train to 2005, test 2006 onward; year effects replaced by decade effects so that test years have a fitted level) and by leave-one-region-out on the six V-Dem politico-geographic regions, with log-likelihood, area under the ROC curve, Brier score and calibration slope \citep{goldstone2010}. H4 and H5 proceed as in the historical panel with country-blocked folds and with the six regions and four periods (pre-1900, 1900--1945, 1946--1989, 1990 onward) as blocks. The robustness set varies the horizon (1, 3, 10 years), the outcome components, the capacity aggregation, the standardization window, the inclusion of land area, the sample period and the control set, and reports Oster's bias-adjusted coefficient and the Cinelli--Hazlett robustness value on the linear-probability version of the primary model \citep{oster2019,cinelli2020}. | ||||
| 37 | + | ||||
| 38 | +\subsection{What the designs identify} | ||||
| 39 | +\label{sec:identification} | ||||
| 40 | + | ||||
| 41 | +Nothing in this paper is causal, and the text does not use causal language for H1 or H2. The estimands are conditional associations with pre-specified direction, baselines, out-of-sample validation and falsification tests. The reasons are stated in advance in the identification note of the replication package and summarized here. Scale creates the demand for administration and administration enables scale, so H1 is symmetric by construction. The historical outcome is crisis-selected, most Seshat facts are undated so that ``pre-crisis'' capacity is mostly whole-polity capacity, the institutional codes and the crisis codes are produced by the same project from overlapping historiography, and the mismatch index is a residual of two indices that correlate 0.84. In the modern panel the capacity items are expert-coded with knowledge of later events and compete with regime type as an explanation, which the pre-registered placebo, negative control and sensitivity analysis are designed to expose rather than to remove. A credible design would move demand or capacity for reasons unrelated to local instability; no such variation is coded at the polity level in Seshat, and the candidate instruments in the modern panel (printing, railways, telegraphy) do not satisfy an exclusion restriction for instability. The paper therefore claims association, prediction and robustness, and declines a causal claim. | ||||
added
paper/sections/results_historical.tex
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| 1 | +\section{Results: historical polities and ethnographic societies} | ||||
| 2 | +\label{sec:hist} | ||||
| 3 | + | ||||
| 4 | +All estimates in this section are \EMP\ and associational. Coefficients are per standard deviation of the standardized regressor unless noted; stars denote $p<0.10$ ($^{*}$), $0.05$ ($^{**}$), $0.01$ ($^{***}$) with the clustering stated in each table. | ||||
| 5 | + | ||||
| 6 | +\subsection{H1: capacity and scale} | ||||
| 7 | +\label{sec:hist-h1} | ||||
| 8 | + | ||||
| 9 | +Capacity and scale move together in every dataset (Tables~\ref{tab:h1-seshat} and~\ref{tab:h1-ea}). In Seshat, a one-unit increase in the capacity share (from no indicator present to all present) is associated with 2.36 units of the scale component in the primary specification with region and era effects (SE 0.17, $n=317$), which is 0.75 standard deviations of $D$ per standard deviation of $K$; with the warfare, production-infrastructure and military covariates the coefficient falls to 1.21 (SE 0.43, $n=191$), still clearly positive, and it is 2.18 (SE 0.13) with a region random intercept instead of fixed effects. With the latent capacity score the association is 0.37 scale units per IRT standard deviation (SE 0.09). Entering the four blocks separately, communication infrastructure carries most of the association (1.09, SE 0.35) while administration, rules and money, and records are individually indistinguishable from zero given the others---which, with inter-block correlations near 0.8, is a statement about collinearity rather than about mechanisms. In the Ethnographic Atlas, each additional level of jurisdictional hierarchy beyond the local community is associated with 0.70 log units of mean community size ($n=579$; Conley standard errors 0.09 and 0.10 at 500 and 1{,}000 km; 0.12 clustered by language family) and with 0.59 log units of population size ($n=799$); the ordered-logit specification in the other direction gives 0.49 log-odds of one more level per log unit of community size (SE 0.12). In the modern panel the within-country association of log population with capacity is 0.15 (SE 0.06) and the fifty-year-difference association 0.13 (SE 0.05), while the pooled cross-sectional coefficient is positive but imprecise (0.19, SE 0.24). The sign is stable across datasets, specifications and the two worlds; the first pre-registered primary test is passed. Nothing here identifies a direction. | ||||
| 10 | + | ||||
| 11 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 12 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 13 | +\caption{H1 in Seshat: scale regressed on capacity. OLS, standard errors clustered by Seshat region (42 clusters); region random intercept in the last row. $K$ is a share in $[0,1]$; the last column rescales the coefficient per standard deviation of $K$.} | ||||
| 14 | +\label{tab:h1-seshat} | ||||
| 15 | +\begin{tabular}{L{7.2cm} l r r r r} | ||||
| 16 | +\toprule | ||||
| 17 | +Specification & Term & Coef. & SE & $n$ & $R^2$ \\ | ||||
| 18 | +\midrule | ||||
| 19 | +\input tables/tab_h1_seshat | ||||
| 20 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 21 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 22 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 23 | + | ||||
| 24 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 25 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 26 | +\caption{H1 in the Ethnographic Atlas (top) and in the modern panel (bottom).} | ||||
| 27 | +\label{tab:h1-ea} | ||||
| 28 | +\begin{tabular}{L{8.4cm} l r r r r} | ||||
| 29 | +\toprule | ||||
| 30 | +Specification & Term & Coef. & SE & $n$ & $R^2$ \\ | ||||
| 31 | +\midrule | ||||
| 32 | +\input tables/tab_h1_ea | ||||
| 33 | +\midrule | ||||
| 34 | +\input tables/tab_h1_modern | ||||
| 35 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 36 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 37 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 38 | + | ||||
| 39 | +\subsection{H2: crisis severity} | ||||
| 40 | +\label{sec:hist-h2} | ||||
| 41 | + | ||||
| 42 | +Table~\ref{tab:h2-seshat} and Figure~\ref{fig:coefplot} report the pre-registered primary test. In the primary specification, a one-standard-deviation higher pre-crisis mismatch is associated with $0.20$ higher log-odds that a given adverse consequence is recorded for the crisis (SE 0.06, $n=127$ crisis records in 117 polities and 31 Seshat regions with a defined pre-crisis index); with the rival covariates the estimate is $0.20$ (SE 0.09, $n=87$), and it is unchanged when the overall complexity component is added. The coefficient is positive and precise, survives the Holm correction over the three primary tests, and is stable under every pre-registered perturbation of the measurement model (Table~\ref{tab:h2-seshat-robust}): latent capacity ($0.15$, SE 0.09), population only ($0.27$, SE 0.11), lower and upper range bounds, inferred codes dropped, within-era and within-region standardization, ranks, quasi-polities dropped ($0.15$, SE 0.11), crises starting at least 25 years after the polity's start ($0.25$, SE 0.09), records with at least twelve coded items, no era effects, no region effects, no effects at all, and clustering by natural geographic area or by polity. Held-out macro-regions and eras (Table~\ref{tab:h5-seshat}, Figure~\ref{fig:forest}) give pooled coefficients between $0.18$ and $0.33$, every one with a confidence interval excluding zero except the block that drops the first millennium BCE ($0.20$, SE 0.17), and the within-block estimates are positive wherever they can be computed, if imprecise. By the standards of a conventional regression table, the mismatch hypothesis would be reported as confirmed. | ||||
| 43 | + | ||||
| 44 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 45 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 46 | +\caption{H2 in Seshat: crisis severity $Y_1$ (fractional logit; share of fourteen instability consequences coded present) with macro-region and era effects; standard errors clustered by Seshat region. The binary outcome $Y_{1b}$ uses region effects only (era cells are all-severe) and robust errors.} | ||||
| 47 | +\label{tab:h2-seshat} | ||||
| 48 | +\begin{tabular}{L{8.0cm} l r r r} | ||||
| 49 | +\toprule | ||||
| 50 | +Specification & Term & Coef. & SE & $n$ \\ | ||||
| 51 | +\midrule | ||||
| 52 | +\input tables/tab_h2_seshat | ||||
| 53 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 54 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 55 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 56 | + | ||||
| 57 | +The pre-registration asked a different question, and the rest of Table~\ref{tab:h2-seshat} answers it. Scale alone is associated with severity at $0.26$ per standard deviation (SE 0.14); capacity alone at $-0.03$ (SE 0.20); the Turchin-style complexity component at $-0.01$ (SE 0.24); the persistence indicator at $0.35$ (SE 0.24). When scale and capacity are entered separately, scale carries $0.34$ (SE 0.16) and capacity $-0.21$ (SE 0.19): capacity has the sign the hypothesis predicts, but it is not distinguishable from zero. The placebo index, which replaces capacity by the share of production-infrastructure indicators that were excluded from $K$ precisely because they are not coordination capacity, is associated with severity at $0.26$ (SE 0.14)---the same as scale alone, and within sampling error of $P$. Out of sample (Table~\ref{tab:h2-seshat-cv}), the model with $P$ has a higher log-likelihood than the fixed-effects-only, capacity-only and complexity-only models in 79--85\% of the fifty cross-validation folds, but beats the scale-only model in 75\%, the persistence model in 69\% and the scale-plus-capacity model in 75\%, below the 80\% rule; with macro-regions held out it loses to scale alone in seven of ten folds and to scale plus capacity in eight. For the binary outcome, which was declared underpowered in advance, the coefficient is negative and imprecise ($-0.18$, SE 0.20 with region effects; $-0.07$, SE 0.18 without), and no model discriminates severe from non-severe crises out of sample (areas under the curve 0.62--0.64 for every model, including the baselines). Reform consequences are unrelated to $P$. The conclusion we are obliged to draw is that what the mismatch index predicts about crisis severity is what polity scale predicts, and that nothing in the data distinguishes a capacity shortfall from a large population. | ||||
| 58 | + | ||||
| 59 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 60 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 61 | +\caption{Pre-registered robustness set for the Seshat primary coefficient (fractional logit of $Y_1$ on the alternative index, rival covariates, macro-region and era effects; region-clustered standard errors unless stated).} | ||||
| 62 | +\label{tab:h2-seshat-robust} | ||||
| 63 | +\begin{tabular}{L{8.0cm} l r r r} | ||||
| 64 | +\toprule | ||||
| 65 | +Variant & Term & Coef. & SE & $n$ \\ | ||||
| 66 | +\midrule | ||||
| 67 | +\input tables/tab_h2_seshat_robust | ||||
| 68 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 69 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 70 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 71 | + | ||||
| 72 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 73 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 74 | +\caption{Out-of-sample comparison in Seshat. Top: share of folds in which the model with $P$ (rival covariates included) has a higher out-of-sample log-likelihood than the baseline, and the mean difference per observation; the pre-registered rule requires 0.80. Bottom: out-of-sample metrics for the binary outcome $Y_{1b}$ (ten repetitions of five-fold cross-validation).} | ||||
| 75 | +\label{tab:h2-seshat-cv} | ||||
| 76 | +\begin{tabular}{l l r r r} | ||||
| 77 | +\toprule | ||||
| 78 | +Baseline & Scheme & Folds & Win share & Mean $\Delta$ log-lik. \\ | ||||
| 79 | +\midrule | ||||
| 80 | +\input tables/tab_h2_seshat_cv | ||||
| 81 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 82 | +\end{tabular}\\[3mm] | ||||
| 83 | +\begin{tabular}{l r r r} | ||||
| 84 | +\toprule | ||||
| 85 | +Model ($Y_{1b}$) & OOS log-lik. & AUC & Brier \\ | ||||
| 86 | +\midrule | ||||
| 87 | +\input tables/tab_h2_seshat_cv_binary | ||||
| 88 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 89 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 90 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 91 | + | ||||
| 92 | +\begin{figure}[H] | ||||
| 93 | +\centering | ||||
| 94 | +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig_h2_coefplot.pdf} | ||||
| 95 | +\caption{Coefficients (per standard deviation) with 95\% confidence intervals for the pre-registered specifications, baselines, placebos and negative controls. Left: Seshat crisis severity. Right: modern instability events.} | ||||
| 96 | +\label{fig:coefplot} | ||||
| 97 | +\end{figure} | ||||
| 98 | + | ||||
| 99 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 100 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 101 | +\caption{H5 in Seshat: $\beta_P$ with one macro-region or era held out (pooled column), the number of crisis records in the held-out block, and the coefficient estimated within the held-out block when it has at least twelve records.} | ||||
| 102 | +\label{tab:h5-seshat} | ||||
| 103 | +\begin{tabular}{L{5.6cm} r r r r l} | ||||
| 104 | +\toprule | ||||
| 105 | +Held-out block & Pooled $\beta_P$ & SE & $n$ & Held-out $n$ & Within-block (SE) \\ | ||||
| 106 | +\midrule | ||||
| 107 | +\input tables/tab_h5_seshat_blocks | ||||
| 108 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 109 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 110 | +\end{table} | ||||
| 111 | + | ||||
| 112 | +\subsection{H4: no threshold} | ||||
| 113 | +\label{sec:hist-h4} | ||||
| 114 | + | ||||
| 115 | +A hinge in $P$ with its knot chosen on the training fold, and a three-degree-of-freedom spline, improve on the linear model out of sample in only 10\% and 8\% of the fifty folds (Table~\ref{tab:h4}); the in-sample hinge places its knot at $0.92$ standard deviations with a negative post-knot slope, the opposite of a tipping point. The smooth form is retained for Seshat. | ||||
| 116 | + | ||||
| 117 | +\subsection{Polity duration and succession} | ||||
| 118 | +\label{sec:hist-y2} | ||||
| 119 | + | ||||
| 120 | +The mismatch index is unrelated to the hazard of a polity's end (Table~\ref{tab:y2y3}): hazard ratios of 1.03 (SE 0.06) and 1.00 (SE 0.07, Schoenfeld test $p=0.98$) with 302 and 201 events. Capacity, entered with scale, is associated with a \emph{higher} hazard (ratio 1.75, SE 0.20 on the log scale), which we read as periodization rather than fragility: well-documented complex polities are divided into more, shorter Seshat polities than poorly documented simple ones. Discontinuous succession, coded for 207 polities with 37 discontinuities, is unrelated to $P$ ($0.02$ and $0.24$ log-odds, SE 0.39 and 0.33). | ||||
| 121 | + | ||||
| 122 | +\begin{table}[H] | ||||
| 123 | +\centering\footnotesize | ||||
| 124 | +\caption{Secondary historical outcomes. Cox proportional hazards for polity duration, stratified by macro-region with region-clustered robust errors (coefficients on the log-hazard scale, hazard ratio in the last column), and logit for discontinuous succession with region and era effects.} | ||||
| 125 | +\label{tab:y2y3} | ||||
| 126 | +\begin{tabular}{L{6.4cm} l r r r r r} | ||||
| 127 | +\toprule | ||||
| 128 | +Specification & Term & Coef. & SE & $n$ & HR & Events \\ | ||||
| 129 | +\midrule | ||||
| 130 | +\input tables/tab_h2_seshat_y2y3 | ||||
| 131 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 132 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
| 133 | +\end{table} | ||||
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