# STATUS — UQO WP36 (Used-car market dynamics, Auto-Ka)

Updated: 2026-11-01

# Current phase

Phase 4–5 (econometric program + AMLI) — Phases 0–3 complete; Phase 2 literature agent running.

# Completed

• Phase 0: repository/infra inspection (Auto-Ka on M4M64b, SQLite 1.4 GB, 143 sources, crawl cycle ≈ 3.3 h).
• Phase 0: owner-authorised read-only snapshot data/raw/autoka-snapshot-20261101.db (SHA-256 verified; users table dropped).
• Phase 0: schema / coverage / null-rate / source-quality audit; feasibility matrix H1–H6; governance.
• Environment: uv venv Python 3.12 (requirements-lock.txt), R 4.6.1, TeX Live 2026 available; no external model API used.
• Phase 1: research/questions.md, research/analysis_plan.md (preregistered 2026-11-01).
• Phase 2: literature (agent running: literature/references.bib, evidence_matrix.csv, novelty_memo.md).
• Phase 2b: external benchmarks inventory (reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md): no weekly used-car benchmark exists for Aug–Oct 2026; composition benchmarks only.
• Phase 3: pipeline 01–03 (ingest, clean, risk set) + 10 tests passing + synthetic fixture.
• Phase 4 Model A (hedonic) done — H1 supported, H4 null.
• Phase 4 Models B/C (hazards), D (competition), F (prediction agent) running; descriptives agent running.
• Phase 5 AMLI.

# Next tasks

1. Phase 3 pipeline: ingest → Parquet; cleaning + exclusion log; sustained price paths; listing-day risk set; competitor sets; sample-construction tables.
2. Phase 4 models A–F; Phase 5 AMLI; Phase 6 robustness; Phase 7 figures/tables; Phase 8 paper.

# Blockers / known limits

• No transaction prices (asking prices only); listing exit ≠ sale (no verified sale outcomes available).
• Panel is 81 days (2026-08-12 → 2026-11-01): H6 external forecasting cannot be tested; H3 is association only.
• AutoTrader (capped 2 000 sliding window) and CarGurus (capped 500) are sampled portals → excluded from dynamic analyses.