WP36 v1.0: robustness suite, E-016 fix (first_cut NULL), final end-to-end rerun, manuscript 44 pp.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
168 changed files +15,770 −2,971
modified
CLAIMS_LEDGER.csv
+7 −4
@@ -16,13 +16,13 @@ C-014,prices,"Surface: vs 1 y/10 000 km, price −14 % (1 y, 50k km), −27 % (3 | |||||
| 16 | C-015,prices,"H4: region effects jointly insignificant chi2(16)=14.9 p=0.53; premia −1.0 % (Lanaudière) to +3.7 % (Bas-Saint-Laurent); Outaouais +2.1 % p=0.14",computation,results/hedonic/region_premia_A4.csv; summary.json tests,verified,null result | 16 | C-015,prices,"H4: region effects jointly insignificant chi2(16)=14.9 p=0.53; premia −1.0 % (Lanaudière) to +3.7 % (Bas-Saint-Laurent); Outaouais +2.1 % p=0.14",computation,results/hedonic/region_premia_A4.csv; summary.json tests,verified,null result | ||
| 17 | C-016,prices,"In-sample RMSE 0.167 (A1) → 0.162 (A2) → 0.107 (A4 trim FE) → 0.091 (A5 dealer FE)",computation,results/hedonic/summary.json fits,verified, | 17 | C-016,prices,"In-sample RMSE 0.167 (A1) → 0.162 (A2) → 0.107 (A4 trim FE) → 0.091 (A5 dealer FE)",computation,results/hedonic/summary.json fits,verified, | ||
| 18 | C-017,dynamics,"First-markdown empirical hazard 0.7 %/day (days 1–3) → 1.1 % (day 7) → 1.4–1.5 % (weeks 2–4)",computation,results/hazards/empirical_hazard_first_markdown.csv,verified, | 18 | C-017,dynamics,"First-markdown empirical hazard 0.7 %/day (days 1–3) → 1.1 % (day 7) → 1.4–1.5 % (weeks 2–4)",computation,results/hazards/empirical_hazard_first_markdown.csv,verified, | ||
| 19 | −C-018,dynamics,"H2: listing-age bins jointly significant chi2(8)=170 in cloglog B; coefficients rise 0.79 → 1.68",computation,results/hazards/cloglog_B_first_markdown.csv; summary.json,verified, | 19 | +C-018,dynamics,"H2: listing-age bins jointly significant chi2(8)=157 in cloglog B (1 371 918 listing-days, 79 698 listings, 15 692 events); coefficients rise 0.91 → 1.8",computation,results/hazards/cloglog_B_first_markdown.csv; summary.json,verified, | ||
| 20 | −C-019,dynamics,"Cox markdown (dealer-clustered): resid 0.716 (p=5e-4), log density 0.114 (p<1e-5), price position 0.356 (p=0.002); cloglog same signs but insignificant",computation,results/hazards/cox_first_markdown.csv; cloglog_B_first_markdown.csv,verified, | 20 | +C-019,dynamics,"Markdown hazard: cloglog resid 0.744 (p=8e-4), pricepos 0.379 (p=8e-4), lkm +0.116 (p=0.002), lprice n.s., ldens 0.019 n.s.; Cox resid 0.716, pricepos 0.356, ldens 0.114 (p<1e-5)",computation,results/hazards/cox_first_markdown.csv; cloglog_B_first_markdown.csv,verified, | ||
| 21 | C-020,dynamics,"Cut size: median 2.7 %; +10 % overpricing → +22 % larger cut; declines with listing age",computation,results/hazards/cutsize_ols.csv; summary.json B_cut_size,verified, | 21 | C-020,dynamics,"Cut size: median 2.7 %; +10 % overpricing → +22 % larger cut; declines with listing age",computation,results/hazards/cutsize_ols.csv; summary.json B_cut_size,verified, | ||
| 22 | C-021,competition,"Daily base rate of own cut 1.44 %; same-day competitor-cut coefficient +0.89 pp (SE 0.21); lags 1–6 ≈ 0; peaks at k=±7, +14",computation,results/competition/eventstudy_main.csv; summary.json,verified,association only | 22 | C-021,competition,"Daily base rate of own cut 1.44 %; same-day competitor-cut coefficient +0.89 pp (SE 0.21); lags 1–6 ≈ 0; peaks at k=±7, +14",computation,results/competition/eventstudy_main.csv; summary.json,verified,association only | ||
| 23 | C-022,competition,"Leads jointly significant p<1e-4; placebo permuted within make-model: all ≈ 0 (joint p=0.18)",computation,results/competition/summary.json,verified, | 23 | C-022,competition,"Leads jointly significant p<1e-4; placebo permuted within make-model: all ≈ 0 (joint p=0.18)",computation,results/competition/summary.json,verified, | ||
| 24 | C-023,competition,"Dealer x weekday FE: k=0 falls to 0.55 pp; k=7 0.17; k=14 0.33",computation,results/competition/summary_dow.json,verified, | 24 | C-023,competition,"Dealer x weekday FE: k=0 falls to 0.55 pp; k=7 0.17; k=14 0.33",computation,results/competition/summary_dow.json,verified, | ||
| 25 | −C-024,competition,"First-markdown risk set: k=0 +2.6 pp vs base 4.9 %; negative leads",computation,results/competition/eventstudy_firstcut.csv,verified, | 25 | +C-024,competition,"First-markdown risk set (full, post E-016): k=0 +0.73 pp vs base 1.14 %; dealer×weekday 0.49",computation,results/competition/eventstudy_firstcut.csv,verified, | ||
| 26 | C-025,exit,"Exit hazard 13 % on day 1, 2 % days 2–3, ≈3 % weeks 2–3, <1 % beyond 60 d",computation,results/hazards/empirical_hazard_exit.csv,verified, | 26 | C-025,exit,"Exit hazard 13 % on day 1, 2 % days 2–3, ≈3 % weeks 2–3, <1 % beyond 60 d",computation,results/hazards/empirical_hazard_exit.csv,verified, | ||
| 27 | C-026,exit,"H5 not supported: entry residual in exit hazard 0.18 (cloglog p=0.42), 0.13 (Cox p=0.54) with dealer clusters; mileage −0.49, price −0.26 (Cox)",computation,results/hazards/cloglog_C_exit.csv; cox_exit.csv,verified,null result | 27 | C-026,exit,"H5 not supported: entry residual in exit hazard 0.18 (cloglog p=0.42), 0.13 (Cox p=0.54) with dealer clusters; mileage −0.49, price −0.26 (Cox)",computation,results/hazards/cloglog_C_exit.csv; cox_exit.csv,verified,null result | ||
| 28 | C-027,validation,"17 898 overlapping dealer-site/otogo VIN pairs; of 8 541 both-exited pairs 80 % within 1 d, 94 % within 7 d, median gap 0.4 d",computation,results/validation/exit_validation.json,verified, | 28 | C-027,validation,"17 898 overlapping dealer-site/otogo VIN pairs; of 8 541 both-exited pairs 80 % within 1 d, 94 % within 7 d, median gap 0.4 d",computation,results/validation/exit_validation.json,verified, | ||
@@ -37,4 +37,7 @@ C-035,amli,"Leave-one-component-out correlations 0.91–0.95; corr(equal,PCA)=0. | |||||
| 37 | C-036,amli,"No external forecasting test possible: no weekly Quebec used-car benchmark exists for Aug–Oct 2026",documentation,reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md,verified, | 37 | C-036,amli,"No external forecasting test possible: no weekly Quebec used-car benchmark exists for Aug–Oct 2026",documentation,reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md,verified, | ||
| 38 | C-037,lit,"172 references verified via Crossref DOI or publisher URL; no retracted items",documentation,literature/evidence_matrix.csv; search_protocol.md,verified, | 38 | C-037,lit,"172 references verified via Crossref DOI or publisher URL; no retracted items",documentation,literature/evidence_matrix.csv; search_protocol.md,verified, | ||
| 39 | C-038,background,"Quebec new vehicle sales Aug 2026 = 41 657 units (StatCan 20-10-0085-01); BoC hike to 2.50 % on 2026-10-28",external,reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md,verified, | 39 | C-038,background,"Quebec new vehicle sales Aug 2026 = 41 657 units (StatCan 20-10-0085-01); BoC hike to 2.50 % on 2026-10-28",external,reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md,verified, | ||
| 40 | −C-039,robustness,"Holm adjustment leaves H1, H2, H3, H6 significant and H4, H5 unrejected",computation,results/robustness/holm_primary_tests.csv,pending,agent running | 40 | +C-039,robustness,"Holm adjustment leaves H1, H2, H3, H6 significant (adj p <= 6e-13) and H4, H5 unrejected (adj p = 0.85)",computation,results/robustness/holm_primary_tests.csv,verified, | ||
| 41 | +C-040,robustness,"H4 joint test: A2 make-model FE p = 0.004; with sampled portals (A4) p = 0.014; premia stay within ±3 %",computation,results/robustness/hedonic_region_premia_variants.csv; tab09,verified,not robust - reported | ||||
| 42 | +C-041,robustness,"Exit hazard resid_A2 flips to −0.38 (0.17) when left-censored stock included (S2L)",computation,results/robustness/hazards_variants.csv,verified,not robust - reported | ||||
| 43 | +C-042,robustness,"AMLI held-out slope: rank standardisation 0.0046 (0.0029); two-week aggregation −0.0001 (0.0052); min 100 listing-days unchanged; LOO 0.0058–0.0082",computation,results/robustness/amli_variants.csv,verified,sensitivity reported | ||||
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DECISIONS.md
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@@ -16,3 +16,4 @@ | |||||
| 16 | | D-012 | 2026-11-01 | Anonymised identifiers use 10-hex-character SHA-1 prefixes (listings) and 8 (dealers) after a collision was detected at 7 characters (139 expected collisions among 273 k uids). | 7-character ids | Birthday-bound collisions produced duplicate listing rows in the risk set (E-005). | | 16 | | D-012 | 2026-11-01 | Anonymised identifiers use 10-hex-character SHA-1 prefixes (listings) and 8 (dealers) after a collision was detected at 7 characters (139 expected collisions among 273 k uids). | 7-character ids | Birthday-bound collisions produced duplicate listing rows in the risk set (E-005). | | ||
| 17 | | D-014 | 2026-11-01 | Left-censoring is defined **per source**: a listing is left-censored if it entered before 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC **or within 24 h of its source's first non-empty crawl** (otogo started on day 6 with 24 565 listings that day, autousagee on day 11 with 11 925). | Global day-1 cut-off only (plan v1.0) | Descriptives agent found 33 224 start-up listings (29 % of S2) whose "entry" was the connector start date; durations and hazards would be biased. Amendment to analysis_plan §1 (S2). | | 17 | | D-014 | 2026-11-01 | Left-censoring is defined **per source**: a listing is left-censored if it entered before 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC **or within 24 h of its source's first non-empty crawl** (otogo started on day 6 with 24 565 listings that day, autousagee on day 11 with 11 925). | Global day-1 cut-off only (plan v1.0) | Descriptives agent found 33 224 start-up listings (29 % of S2) whose "entry" was the connector start date; durations and hazards would be biased. Amendment to analysis_plan §1 (S2). | | ||
| 18 | | D-015 | 2026-11-01 | AMLI market-week panel starts at panel week 2 (days 14–76): weeks 0–1 are contaminated by the portal start-ups (otogo day 6, autousagee day 11). Supervised weights fitted on weeks 2–5, evaluated on weeks 6–10. Coordinates outside the Quebec bounding box (lat 44–63, lng −80 to −56) are treated as missing. | Keep weeks 0–1 | Province components in week 0 are outliers (start-up stock composition), see figure 8 draft. | | 18 | | D-015 | 2026-11-01 | AMLI market-week panel starts at panel week 2 (days 14–76): weeks 0–1 are contaminated by the portal start-ups (otogo day 6, autousagee day 11). Supervised weights fitted on weeks 2–5, evaluated on weeks 6–10. Coordinates outside the Quebec bounding box (lat 44–63, lng −80 to −56) are treated as missing. | Keep weeks 0–1 | Province components in week 0 are outliers (start-up stock composition), see figure 8 draft. | | ||
| 19 | +| D-016 | 2026-11-01 | Model B (first-markdown cloglog) and the first-cut event study are re-estimated on the full first-cut risk set after the NULL→0 fix (E-016); the earlier survivor-only estimates are discarded and never reported. | Keep earlier estimates | They conditioned on the outcome. | | ||||
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EXPERIMENTS.md
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@@ -20,3 +20,5 @@ Environment: macOS 27.0 (Apple M5 Max, 18 cores, 48 GB), Python 3.12.13 via uv ( | |||||
| 20 | | E-013 | 2026-11-01 | first hazards run (v1/v2) | idem | v1 KeyError e_day (merge); v2 dropped listing-days without competitors (pricepos NaN) → B n_listings = n_events; both fixed in v3 | failures → fixed | | 20 | | E-013 | 2026-11-01 | first hazards run (v1/v2) | idem | v1 KeyError e_day (merge); v2 dropped listing-days without competitors (pricepos NaN) → B n_listings = n_events; both fixed in v3 | failures → fixed | | ||
| 21 | | E-014 | 2026-11-01 | first AMLI run (weeks 0–10) | idem | week-0 province components were start-up outliers → D-015 | superseded | | 21 | | E-014 | 2026-11-01 | first AMLI run (weeks 0–10) | idem | week-0 province components were start-up outliers → D-015 | superseded | | ||
| 22 | | E-015 | 2026-11-01 | `paper/`: latexmk | — | main.pdf 45 pp.; bib `$` escape fixed in busse2006cashback | success | | 22 | | E-015 | 2026-11-01 | `paper/`: latexmk | — | main.pdf 45 pp.; bib `$` escape fixed in busse2006cashback | success | | ||
| 23 | +| E-016 | 2026-11-01 | robustness agent audit of Model B | idem | **BUG**: `risk_set.first_cut` was NULL (not 0) for never-cut listings → `hazards.cloglog` (dropna) and the first-cut event study were fitted on listings that eventually get a cut only (n_listings = n_events = 15 692). Fixed in `features.py` (fill_null 0) + guards in `hazards.py`/`competition.py`; regression test added; full pipeline rerun (E-017). Cox B, cut-size OLS, empirical hazards, Model C, AMLI and prediction were not affected. | failure → fixed | | ||||
| 24 | +| E-017 | 2026-11-01 | `make data && make models && make tables && make figures` (final end-to-end rerun after E-016) | snapshot sha256 65c3dad2… | all `results/`, `figures/`, `paper/tables/` regenerated from one run; key numbers checked against CLAIMS_LEDGER (hedonic, competition, AMLI, validation unchanged; Model B corrected: resid 0.744, pricepos 0.379, lkm +0.116, age bins χ²(8)=157; first-cut event study k=0 +0.73 pp vs base 1.14 %); 14 tests pass + 1 regression test | success | | ||||
modified
README.md
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@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ | |||||
| 6 | 6 | ||||
| 7 | ## TL;DR | 7 | ## TL;DR | ||
| 8 | - Daily panel of every used-vehicle listing on 131 Quebec dealer websites, 2 full-inventory portals and 5 dealer groups, 12 Aug–1 Nov 2026 (273,265 listings, 428,484 price-log rows, 586 crawl cycles), from the aggregator Auto-Ka. | 8 | - Daily panel of every used-vehicle listing on 131 Quebec dealer websites, 2 full-inventory portals and 5 dealer groups, 12 Aug–1 Nov 2026 (273,265 listings, 428,484 price-log rows, 586 crawl cycles), from the aggregator Auto-Ka. | ||
| 9 | −- Depreciation of asking prices is strongly nonlinear in age and mileage (H1 supported); regional quality-adjusted premia are a precisely estimated null (joint p = 0.53). | 9 | +- Depreciation of asking prices is strongly nonlinear in age and mileage (H1 supported); regional quality-adjusted premia are within ±4 % of Montréal and jointly insignificant with trim FE (p = 0.53), significant but still small with make–model FE (p = 0.004). | ||
| 10 | - 20 % of listings get a sustained markdown (median 2.8 %); the markdown hazard rises over three weeks; overpriced vehicles are cut sooner and more deeply. | 10 | - 20 % of listings get a sustained markdown (median 2.8 %); the markdown hazard rises over three weeks; overpriced vehicles are cut sooner and more deeply. | ||
| 11 | - Competitor price cuts co-move the same day (+0.9 pp vs a 1.4 % base rate) with no lagged response; placebo null — association, not causation. | 11 | - Competitor price cuts co-move the same day (+0.9 pp vs a 1.4 % base rate) with no lagged response; placebo null — association, not causation. | ||
| 12 | - Listing exit ≠ sale: 94 % of exits coincide across two sources within a week, but ≥ 10 % are followed by a relisting. | 12 | - Listing exit ≠ sale: 94 % of exits coincide across two sources within a week, but ≥ 10 % are followed by a relisting. | ||
@@ -22,11 +22,11 @@ Audits an aggregator database, builds a reproducible listing-day panel with audi | |||||
| 22 | | Hypothesis | Result | Evidence | | 22 | | Hypothesis | Result | Evidence | | ||
| 23 | |---|---|---| | 23 | |---|---|---| | ||
| 24 | | H1 nonlinear depreciation | Supported (χ²(12)=664; CV RMSE −2.8 %) | `results/hedonic/` | | 24 | | H1 nonlinear depreciation | Supported (χ²(12)=664; CV RMSE −2.8 %) | `results/hedonic/` | | ||
| 25 | −| H2 markdown hazard ↑ listing age | Supported (χ²(8)=170); competition/relative-price effects significant in Cox, imprecise in cloglog | `results/hazards/` | | 25 | +| H2 markdown hazard ↑ listing age | Supported (χ²(8)=157); relative price (hedonic residual, price vs competitors) raises the hazard; competitor density unstable | `results/hazards/` | | ||
| 26 | | H3 competitor response | Same-day co-movement only; no lagged response; placebo null | `results/competition/` | | 26 | | H3 competitor response | Same-day co-movement only; no lagged response; placebo null | `results/competition/` | | ||
| 27 | −| H4 regional premia | Null (p = 0.53; all |premia| < 4 %) | `results/hedonic/region_premia_A4.csv` | | 27 | +| H4 regional premia | Small (all |premia| < 4 %); joint p = 0.53 with trim FE, 0.004 with make–model FE | `results/hedonic/region_premia_A4.csv` | | ||
| 28 | | H5 relative price → exit | Not supported (p = 0.42/0.54); exit validated across sources (94 % within 7 d) | `results/hazards/`, `results/validation/` | | 28 | | H5 relative price → exit | Not supported (p = 0.42/0.54); exit validated across sources (94 % within 7 d) | `results/hazards/`, `results/validation/` | | ||
| 29 | −| H6 AMLI | PCA 56 %; held-out slope 0.97 pp [0.69, 1.24]; no external test possible | `results/amli/` | | 29 | +| H6 AMLI | PCA 56 %; held-out slope 0.97 pp [0.69, 1.24] (z-scores; weaker with ranks); no external test possible | `results/amli/` | | ||
| 30 | 30 | ||||
| 31 | ## Repository layout | 31 | ## Repository layout | ||
| 32 | ``` | 32 | ``` | ||
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STATUS.md
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@@ -1,28 +1,26 @@ | |||||
| 1 | # STATUS — UQO WP36 (Used-car market dynamics, Auto-Ka) | 1 | # STATUS — UQO WP36 (Used-car market dynamics, Auto-Ka) | ||
| 2 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | −Updated: 2026-11-01 | 3 | +Updated: 2026-11-01 (session 1, end) | ||
| 4 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | ## Current phase | 5 | ## Current phase | ||
| 6 | −Phase 4–5 (econometric program + AMLI) — Phases 0–3 complete; Phase 2 literature agent running. | 6 | +COMPLETE (v1.0, 2026-11-01): all phases 0–9 executed; final end-to-end rerun (`make data models tables figures`, E-017) after the E-016 fix; manuscript 44 pp. compiled; pushed to spbgit `wp36_uqo.git`. Next: author's human read-through; SSRN deposit; extension with a longer panel and registration transfers. | ||
| 7 | 7 | ||||
| 8 | ## Completed | 8 | ## Completed | ||
| 9 | −- [x] Phase 0: repository/infra inspection (Auto-Ka on M4M64b, SQLite 1.4 GB, 143 sources, crawl cycle ≈ 3.3 h). | 9 | +- [x] Phase 0: audit (`reports/data_access_audit.md`), snapshot (SHA-256 verified), governance, environment; no external model API used. | ||
| 10 | −- [x] Phase 0: owner-authorised read-only snapshot `data/raw/autoka-snapshot-20261101.db` (SHA-256 verified; `users` table dropped). | 10 | +- [x] Phase 1: `research/questions.md`, `research/analysis_plan.md` (preregistered 2026-11-01; amendments D-010, D-011, D-014, D-015). | ||
| 11 | −- [x] Phase 0: schema / coverage / null-rate / source-quality audit; feasibility matrix H1–H6; governance. | 11 | +- [x] Phase 2: 172 verified references (`literature/`), novelty memo, search protocol; external benchmarks inventory (no weekly Quebec used-car benchmark exists). | ||
| 12 | −- [x] Environment: uv venv Python 3.12 (`requirements-lock.txt`), R 4.6.1, TeX Live 2026 available; no external model API used. | 12 | +- [x] Phase 3: pipeline 01–03 (ingest → clean → risk set), exclusion log, sample tables, 14 tests, synthetic fixture. | ||
| 13 | −- [x] Phase 1: `research/questions.md`, `research/analysis_plan.md` (preregistered 2026-11-01). | 13 | +- [x] Phase 4: Models A (hedonic), B/C (hazards), D (competition), E (regions), F (prediction). | ||
| 14 | −- [ ] Phase 2: literature (agent running: `literature/references.bib`, `evidence_matrix.csv`, `novelty_memo.md`). | 14 | +- [x] Phase 5: AMLI (`results/amli/`), weights, dealer bootstrap, held-out validation. | ||
| 15 | −- [x] Phase 2b: external benchmarks inventory (`reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md`): no weekly used-car benchmark exists for Aug–Oct 2026; composition benchmarks only. | 15 | +- [x] Phase 7: Figures 1–10, Tables 1–8 (+ tests and region tables). | ||
| 16 | −- [x] Phase 3: pipeline 01–03 (ingest, clean, risk set) + 10 tests passing + synthetic fixture. | 16 | +- [x] Phase 8: `paper/main.pdf` v1.0 (43 pages, 0 undefined citations, 1 negligible overfull box). | ||
| 17 | −- [x] Phase 4 Model A (hedonic) done — H1 supported, H4 null. | 17 | +- [x] Phase 9: STATUS, DECISIONS (D-001…D-015), EXPERIMENTS (E-000…E-015), CLAIMS_LEDGER (39 claims), REPRODUCE, Makefile, README. | ||
| 18 | −- [ ] Phase 4 Models B/C (hazards), D (competition), F (prediction agent) running; descriptives agent running. | 18 | +- [x] Phase 6: robustness suite (`results/robustness/`, Table 9, Holm) — three non-robust results reported explicitly (H4 with make-model FE / sampled portals; exit residual under S2L; AMLI validation under rank/two-week). | ||
| 19 | −- [ ] Phase 5 AMLI. | 19 | +- [x] E-016 bug (first_cut NULL) found by the robustness audit, fixed, full rerun; Model B rewritten. | ||
| 20 | +- [x] Final rerun + recompile + commit + push. | ||||
| 20 | 21 | ||||
| 21 | −## Next tasks | 22 | +## Results summary | ||
| 22 | −1. Phase 3 pipeline: ingest → Parquet; cleaning + exclusion log; sustained price paths; listing-day risk set; competitor sets; sample-construction tables. | 23 | +H1 supported; H2 supported (listing-age profile; relative price and price vs competitors raise the markdown hazard; competitor density unstable); H3 same-day co-movement only (association), placebo null; H4 small premia (< 4 %), joint p = 0.53 with trim FE but 0.004 with make-model FE; H5 relative-price → exit not supported, exit validated across sources (94 % within 7 d, ≥ 10 % relistings); H6 PCA 56 %, held-out slope 0.97 pp [0.69, 1.24], no external test possible. | ||
| 23 | −2. Phase 4 models A–F; Phase 5 AMLI; Phase 6 robustness; Phase 7 figures/tables; Phase 8 paper. | ||||
| 24 | 24 | ||||
| 25 | ## Blockers / known limits | 25 | ## Blockers / known limits | ||
| 26 | −- No transaction prices (asking prices only); listing exit ≠ sale (no verified sale outcomes available). | 26 | +- No transaction prices; exit ≠ sale; 81-day window; H3 descriptive; AMLI internal validation only. | ||
| 27 | −- Panel is 81 days (2026-08-12 → 2026-11-01): H6 external forecasting cannot be tested; H3 is association only. | ||||
| 28 | −- AutoTrader (capped 2 000 sliding window) and CarGurus (capped 500) are sampled portals → excluded from dynamic analyses. | ||||
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data/interim/manifest.json
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| 1 | { | 1 | { | ||
| 2 | "snapshot": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/used-car-market-liquidity/data/raw/autoka-snapshot-20261101.db", | 2 | "snapshot": "/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/used-car-market-liquidity/data/raw/autoka-snapshot-20261101.db", | ||
| 3 | − "created_utc": "2026-11-01T08:02:17Z", | 3 | + "created_utc": "2026-11-01T08:45:41Z", | ||
| 4 | "sha256": "65c3dad229a402f89129c614111a8d6f7b583eb7b46a6014a34e0ebca8de0132", | 4 | "sha256": "65c3dad229a402f89129c614111a8d6f7b583eb7b46a6014a34e0ebca8de0132", | ||
| 5 | "rows": { | 5 | "rows": { | ||
| 6 | "vehicles": 273265, | 6 | "vehicles": 273265, | ||
@@ -13,5 +13,5 @@ | |||||
| 13 | "sync_ts_max": 1793515782.732466, | 13 | "sync_ts_max": 1793515782.732466, | ||
| 14 | "first_seen_min": 1786537959.087422, | 14 | "first_seen_min": 1786537959.087422, | ||
| 15 | "last_seen_max": 1793515782.732466, | 15 | "last_seen_max": 1793515782.732466, | ||
| 16 | − "seconds": 2.8 | 16 | + "seconds": 2.7 | ||
| 17 | } | 17 | } | ||
| \ No newline at end of file | |||||
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| 1 | −We study price discovery and liquidity in the Quebec used-car market with a daily panel of 273{,}265 dealer listings observed by the aggregator Auto-Ka between 12 August and 1 November 2026, with every asking-price change and listing disappearance recorded about seven times a day. Hedonic models with flexible age and mileage splines reject linear depreciation and improve dealer-held-out fit by three percent; profiles differ by powertrain. One listing in five receives a sustained markdown (median 2.8 percent of the entry price); the markdown hazard rises over the first three weeks on the lot, and cuts are larger for vehicles that entered above their quality-adjusted value. A competitor event study with market-by-week and model-year-by-week fixed effects finds a same-day co-movement of price cuts among close local competitors (0.9 percentage points against a daily base rate of 1.4 percent) but no lagged response, and a within-make--model placebo yields nothing: we interpret this as common shocks and synchronised repricing calendars, not strategic reaction. Quality-adjusted asking prices do not differ across Quebec's seventeen regions (joint $p = 0.53$), a precisely estimated null. Listing exit is strongly predicted by mileage, price and listing age; cross-source matching by vehicle identification number shows that 94 percent of exits coincide within a week on two independent sources while at least 10 percent are followed by a relisting, so exit overstates sales. A transparent five-component Automobile Market Liquidity Index captures 56 percent of the common variation in regional turnover and, built without the exit component, predicts next-week exit intensity within regions; deep markdowns load as a symptom of illiquidity. No external forecasting claim is possible with an eleven-week window, and the paper documents what listing data can and cannot say about transactions. | 1 | +We study price discovery and liquidity in the Quebec used-car market with a daily panel of 273{,}265 dealer listings observed by the aggregator Auto-Ka between 12 August and 1 November 2026, with every asking-price change and listing disappearance recorded about seven times a day. Hedonic models with flexible age and mileage splines reject linear depreciation and improve dealer-held-out fit by three percent; profiles differ by powertrain. One listing in five receives a sustained markdown (median 2.8 percent of the entry price); the markdown hazard doubles over the first three weeks on the lot, and vehicles that entered above their quality-adjusted value or above their local competitors are cut sooner and more deeply. A competitor event study with market-by-week and model-year-by-week fixed effects finds a same-day co-movement of price cuts among close local competitors (0.9 percentage points against a daily base rate of 1.4 percent) but no lagged response, and a within-make--model placebo yields nothing: we interpret this as common shocks and synchronised repricing calendars, not strategic reaction. Quality-adjusted regional premia across Quebec's seventeen regions are economically small (all within four percent of Montréal) and jointly insignificant once trim is held fixed ($p = 0.53$), although coarser quality controls detect small but significant differences. Listing exit is strongly predicted by mileage, price and listing age; cross-source matching by vehicle identification number shows that 94 percent of exits coincide within a week on two independent sources while at least 10 percent are followed by a relisting, so exit overstates sales. A transparent five-component Automobile Market Liquidity Index captures 56 percent of the common variation in regional turnover and, built without the exit component, predicts next-week exit intensity within regions under z-score standardisation, a result that weakens under rank standardisation; deep markdowns load as a symptom of illiquidity. No external forecasting claim is possible with an eleven-week window, and the paper documents what listing data can and cannot say about transactions. | ||
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paper/sections/conclusion.tex
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ | |||||
| 1 | \section{Conclusion}\label{sec:conclusion} | 1 | \section{Conclusion}\label{sec:conclusion} | ||
| 2 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | −Using a daily panel of every listing published by 131 dealer websites, two full-inventory portals and five dealer groups in Quebec over eleven weeks of 2026, we have described how the price of a used car is discovered on the dealer's lot. Asking prices depreciate nonlinearly in age and mileage; one listing in five is cut, by 2.8~percent at the median, with a markdown hazard that rises over the first three weeks; cuts are larger for vehicles that entered above their quality-adjusted value; and listings disappear after nine days at the median, faster for cheap, high-mileage and older vehicles. Repricing co-moves across neighbouring dealers on the same day and at weekly harmonics but not with a lag, which we interpret as common shocks and shared routines rather than strategic reaction. Quality-adjusted asking prices do not differ across the province's regions in any detectable way. A transparent five-component liquidity index summarises more than half of the common variation in regional turnover, and its non-exit components anticipate next week's exits; the data also tell us that deep markdowns are a sign of slow, not liquid, markets. | 3 | +Using a daily panel of every listing published by 131 dealer websites, two full-inventory portals and five dealer groups in Quebec over eleven weeks of 2026, we have described how the price of a used car is discovered on the dealer's lot. Asking prices depreciate nonlinearly in age and mileage; one listing in five is cut, by 2.8~percent at the median, with a markdown hazard that doubles over the first three weeks; overpriced vehicles are cut sooner and more deeply; and listings disappear after nine days at the median, faster for cheap, high-mileage and older vehicles. Repricing co-moves across neighbouring dealers on the same day and at weekly harmonics but not with a lag, which we interpret as common shocks and shared routines rather than strategic reaction. Quality-adjusted asking prices differ across the province's regions by at most a few percent, and not detectably once trim is held fixed. A transparent five-component liquidity index summarises more than half of the common variation in regional turnover, and its non-exit components anticipate next week's exits under the preregistered standardisation, less clearly under alternatives; the data also tell us that deep markdowns are a sign of slow, not liquid, markets. | ||
| 4 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | The limits are as important as the findings. Asking prices are not transaction prices; exits overstate retail sales by at least a tenth, as our relisting analysis shows; the competitor event study is descriptive; the regional null applies to one quarter; the thirty-day predictability of repricing is mostly dealer practice and does not transfer to unseen dealers; and the liquidity index has no external validation yet. A longer panel, matched to registration transfers, would allow the markdown and exit hazards to be modelled as competing risks with a verified sale outcome, the regional null to be tested across seasons, and the index to be tested as a leading indicator. The pipeline that produced this paper, with its immutable snapshot, exclusion log, preregistered plan and claims ledger, is designed to make that extension a matter of rerunning it. | 5 | The limits are as important as the findings. Asking prices are not transaction prices; exits overstate retail sales by at least a tenth, as our relisting analysis shows; the competitor event study is descriptive; the regional null applies to one quarter; the thirty-day predictability of repricing is mostly dealer practice and does not transfer to unseen dealers; and the liquidity index has no external validation yet. A longer panel, matched to registration transfers, would allow the markdown and exit hazards to be modelled as competing risks with a verified sale outcome, the regional null to be tested across seasons, and the index to be tested as a leading indicator. The pipeline that produced this paper, with its immutable snapshot, exclusion log, preregistered plan and claims ledger, is designed to make that extension a matter of rerunning it. | ||
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paper/sections/introduction.tex
+1 −1
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ We assemble a daily panel of 273{,}265 used-vehicle listings observed between 12 | |||||
| 6 | 6 | ||||
| 7 | The empirical programme was preregistered before any model was estimated (Section~\ref{sec:method}; the full plan is in the replication package) and has six parts. First, we estimate hedonic asking-price models with flexible age and mileage profiles and ask whether depreciation is nonlinear and powertrain-specific (H1). Second, we model the hazard of a first sustained markdown and the size of the cut as functions of listing age, local competition and the vehicle's relative price (H2). Third, we estimate an event study of a dealer's repricing around the price cuts of close local competitors, with market-by-week and model-year-by-week fixed effects, treating the estimates explicitly as associations (H3). Fourth, we test whether quality-adjusted asking prices differ across Quebec's seventeen administrative regions (H4). Fifth, we estimate the hazard of listing exit and validate exit as a sale proxy using vehicles observed simultaneously on a dealer's own site and on a portal, and by detecting relistings of the same vehicle identification number elsewhere (H5). Sixth, we construct an Automobile Market Liquidity Index (AMLI) from five transparent components and validate it internally with a held-out-component design (H6). | 7 | The empirical programme was preregistered before any model was estimated (Section~\ref{sec:method}; the full plan is in the replication package) and has six parts. First, we estimate hedonic asking-price models with flexible age and mileage profiles and ask whether depreciation is nonlinear and powertrain-specific (H1). Second, we model the hazard of a first sustained markdown and the size of the cut as functions of listing age, local competition and the vehicle's relative price (H2). Third, we estimate an event study of a dealer's repricing around the price cuts of close local competitors, with market-by-week and model-year-by-week fixed effects, treating the estimates explicitly as associations (H3). Fourth, we test whether quality-adjusted asking prices differ across Quebec's seventeen administrative regions (H4). Fifth, we estimate the hazard of listing exit and validate exit as a sale proxy using vehicles observed simultaneously on a dealer's own site and on a portal, and by detecting relistings of the same vehicle identification number elsewhere (H5). Sixth, we construct an Automobile Market Liquidity Index (AMLI) from five transparent components and validate it internally with a held-out-component design (H6). | ||
| 8 | 8 | ||||
| 9 | −Five findings stand out. (i) Depreciation of asking prices is strongly nonlinear in both age and mileage: the linear specification is rejected at any conventional level and splines improve dealer-grouped out-of-sample fit by about 3~percent, a gain that gradient boosting only modestly extends. Age profiles differ by powertrain, with battery-electric vehicles depreciating faster than comparable combustion vehicles at young ages. (ii) Markdowns are frequent but shallow: one listing in five receives at least one sustained cut, the median first cut is 2.8~percent of the entry price, and the daily markdown hazard rises steeply over the first three weeks of a listing before plateauing. Listings that enter above their hedonic value are cut more often and more deeply. (iii) Repricing is synchronised rather than sequential: a close competitor's cut is associated with a 0.5--0.9 percentage-point higher probability that the dealer cuts the same day, against a daily base rate of 1.4~percent, but the association vanishes on the following days and reappears only at seven-day harmonics; it survives dealer-by-weekday fixed effects at $k=0$ but not as a lagged response. A placebo that permutes competitor series within make--model cells produces no effect. We read this as common local shocks and shared repricing calendars rather than strategic reaction, and we do not claim causality. (iv) Quality-adjusted asking prices are remarkably integrated across Quebec: with make--model--trim fixed effects and dealer-clustered inference, the seventeen regional premia are jointly insignificant ($p = 0.53$) and all lie within $\pm 4$~percent of Montréal. This is a precisely estimated null. (v) Listing exit is strongly predicted by mileage, price and listing age, and exit is a reasonably consistent event across sources: for vehicles observed both on a dealer's site and on a portal, 80~percent of exits coincide within one day and 94~percent within a week; 10~percent of exits are followed by a relisting of the same vehicle within 30~days, 6~percent at a different location, which bounds the share of non-sale exits from below. The AMLI's first principal component explains 55~percent of component variance, and an index built without the exit component predicts next-week exit intensity within regions. We are explicit that the 81-day window does not allow any test of the index's forecasting value for external economic variables. | 9 | +Five findings stand out. (i) Depreciation of asking prices is strongly nonlinear in both age and mileage: the linear specification is rejected at any conventional level and splines improve dealer-grouped out-of-sample fit by about 3~percent, a gain that gradient boosting only modestly extends. Age profiles differ by powertrain, with battery-electric vehicles depreciating faster than comparable combustion vehicles at young ages. (ii) Markdowns are frequent but shallow: one listing in five receives at least one sustained cut, the median first cut is 2.8~percent of the entry price, and the daily markdown hazard doubles over the first three weeks of a listing before plateauing. Listings that enter above their hedonic value, or above their local competitors, are cut sooner and more deeply; the number of local competitors has no stable effect. (iii) Repricing is synchronised rather than sequential: a close competitor's cut is associated with a 0.5--0.9 percentage-point higher probability that the dealer cuts the same day, against a daily base rate of 1.4~percent, but the association vanishes on the following days and reappears only at seven-day harmonics; it survives dealer-by-weekday fixed effects at $k=0$ but not as a lagged response. A placebo that permutes competitor series within make--model cells produces no effect. We read this as common local shocks and shared repricing calendars rather than strategic reaction, and we do not claim causality. (iv) Quality-adjusted asking prices are close to integrated across Quebec: the sixteen regional premia relative to Montréal all lie within $\pm 4$~percent, and with make--model--trim fixed effects and dealer-clustered inference they are jointly insignificant ($p = 0.53$); with coarser make--model controls the joint test rejects ($p = 0.004$) but the premia remain within $\pm 3$~percent, so the economically relevant conclusion is that regional differences are small. (v) Listing exit is strongly predicted by mileage, price and listing age, and exit is a reasonably consistent event across sources: for vehicles observed both on a dealer's site and on a portal, 80~percent of exits coincide within one day and 94~percent within a week; 10~percent of exits are followed by a relisting of the same vehicle within 30~days, 6~percent at a different location, which bounds the share of non-sale exits from below. The AMLI's first principal component explains 56~percent of component variance, and an index built without the exit component predicts next-week exit intensity within regions, although this internal validation is sensitive to the standardisation of the components. We are explicit that the 81-day window does not allow any test of the index's forecasting value for external economic variables. | ||
| 10 | 10 | ||||
| 11 | The paper contributes to three literatures. To the economics of durable-goods markets \citep{akerlof1970lemons,hendel1999adverse,stolyarov2002turnover,gavazza2014usedcar}, it adds listing-level evidence on how dealers search for the price at which a used car clears, the counterpart on the sell side to the buyer-search evidence of \citet{murry2020colocation} and the intermediary margins of \citet{biglaiser2020intermediaries}. To the literature on asking prices and time on market, developed mostly for housing \citep{knight2002listing,han2016askingprice,anenberg2016frictions,guren2018momentum}, it brings a market with far shorter spells, near-complete price histories and many close substitutes. To the measurement of market liquidity, where industry days'-supply and days-to-turn statistics \citep{cox2022dayssupply,cbb2026index} exist but are opaque, it offers a reproducible, component-based index with documented validation limits. | 11 | The paper contributes to three literatures. To the economics of durable-goods markets \citep{akerlof1970lemons,hendel1999adverse,stolyarov2002turnover,gavazza2014usedcar}, it adds listing-level evidence on how dealers search for the price at which a used car clears, the counterpart on the sell side to the buyer-search evidence of \citet{murry2020colocation} and the intermediary margins of \citet{biglaiser2020intermediaries}. To the literature on asking prices and time on market, developed mostly for housing \citep{knight2002listing,han2016askingprice,anenberg2016frictions,guren2018momentum}, it brings a market with far shorter spells, near-complete price histories and many close substitutes. To the measurement of market liquidity, where industry days'-supply and days-to-turn statistics \citep{cox2022dayssupply,cbb2026index} exist but are opaque, it offers a reproducible, component-based index with documented validation limits. | ||
| 12 | 12 | ||||
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paper/sections/results_amli.tex
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@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ The component correlations (Figure~\ref{fig:amlival}(b)) carry the paper's most | |||||
| 18 | 18 | ||||
| 19 | \subsection{Internal validation} | 19 | \subsection{Internal validation} | ||
| 20 | 20 | ||||
| 21 | −The analysis plan called for a held-out-component test. An equal-weight index built \emph{without} exit intensity, from the markdown, dispersion and arrival components of week $w$, predicts the exit intensity of week $w+1$ within regions: the slope is 0.97 percentage points of daily exit intensity per index unit (95\% interval 0.69 to 1.24; the mean daily exit intensity is 2.3~percent), with an $R^2$ of 0.66 including region effects, and it is unchanged when the current exit intensity is added as a control (1.03, interval 0.70 to 1.35). Figure~\ref{fig:amlival}(a) shows the within-region relation. The index is robust to leaving any single component out (correlations with the full index between 0.91 and 0.95), and the same construction on price-tier and body-class markets gives first components explaining 44--46~percent of the variance and held-out slopes of 0.46 points, significant for body classes (interval 0.06 to 0.86) but not for the three price tiers (12 market-weeks only). | 21 | +The analysis plan called for a held-out-component test. An equal-weight index built \emph{without} exit intensity, from the markdown, dispersion and arrival components of week $w$, predicts the exit intensity of week $w+1$ within regions: the slope is 0.97 percentage points of daily exit intensity per index unit (95\% interval 0.69 to 1.24; the mean daily exit intensity is 2.3~percent), with an $R^2$ of 0.66 including region effects, and it is unchanged when the current exit intensity is added as a control (1.03, interval 0.70 to 1.35). Figure~\ref{fig:amlival}(a) shows the within-region relation. The index is robust to leaving any single component out (correlations with the full index between 0.91 and 0.95; the held-out slope stays between 0.58 and 0.82 points), and to the minimum cell size (100 listing-days: unchanged), but the held-out validation is weaker under rank standardisation of the components (0.46 points, standard error 0.29) and uninformative at two-week aggregation, which leaves only four observations per region (Section~\ref{sec:robust}). The same construction on price-tier and body-class markets gives first components explaining 44--46~percent of the variance and held-out slopes of 0.46 points, significant for body classes (interval 0.06 to 0.86) but not for the three price tiers (12 market-weeks only). | ||
| 22 | 22 | ||||
| 23 | \begin{figure}[tbp]\centering\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig09_amli_validation.pdf} | 23 | \begin{figure}[tbp]\centering\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/fig09_amli_validation.pdf} | ||
| 24 | \caption{AMLI internal validation. (a) Within-region relation between the leave-exit-out index in week $w$ and exit intensity in week $w+1$, weeks 6--10. (b) Correlations among the five standardised components across region-weeks.}\label{fig:amlival}\end{figure} | 24 | \caption{AMLI internal validation. (a) Within-region relation between the leave-exit-out index in week $w$ and exit intensity in week $w+1$, weeks 6--10. (b) Correlations among the five standardised components across region-weeks.}\label{fig:amlival}\end{figure} | ||
modified
paper/sections/results_dynamics.tex
+2 −2
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ | |||||
| 2 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | \subsection{Markdown hazards and cut sizes (H2)} | 3 | \subsection{Markdown hazards and cut sizes (H2)} | ||
| 4 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | −Figure~\ref{fig:hazards}(a) shows the empirical daily hazard of a first sustained markdown by listing age. It is low in the first days (0.7~percent per day), doubles by the end of the first week (1.1~percent) and reaches a plateau of 1.4--1.5~percent per day between the second and fourth weeks, after which it declines slightly among the surviving listings. In the discrete-time model of Table~\ref{tab:hazards}, column~(1), the listing-age bins are jointly significant ($\chi^2(8) = 170$) and the coefficients rise monotonically from 0.79 (days 1--3, relative to the entry day) to 1.68 (day 61 and beyond), so the first half of H2 is supported: the probability of a markdown increases with the time a vehicle has been on the lot. Cheaper and higher-mileage vehicles are cut less often, consistent with a thinner margin to give away. The competition and relative-price terms are less clear-cut. In the listing-level Cox model with dealer-clustered sandwich errors (column~2), a listing that enters 10~percent above its hedonic value has a 7.4~percent higher markdown hazard (coefficient 0.72 on the residual), each log unit of competitor density raises the hazard by 12~percent, and a 10~percent higher price than the competitor set adds 3.6~percent; all three are significant at the 1~percent level. In the discrete-time model with region, calendar-week and source-class effects (column~1), the point estimates have the same signs but the dealer-clustered standard errors are three to five times larger and none of the three is significant. The cut-size regression (column~5) is unambiguous: the first cut is 2.7~percent of the entry price at the median, it is larger for listings that entered above their hedonic value (a 10~percent overpricing raises the cut by 22~percent) and for expensive vehicles in absolute terms, and it declines with listing age at the time of the cut, that is, late cuts are smaller than early ones. | 5 | +Figure~\ref{fig:hazards}(a) shows the empirical daily hazard of a first sustained markdown by listing age. It is low in the first days (0.7~percent per day), doubles by the end of the first week (1.1~percent) and reaches a plateau of 1.4--1.5~percent per day between the second and fourth weeks, after which it declines slightly among the surviving listings. In the discrete-time model of Table~\ref{tab:hazards}, column~(1), estimated on the 1.37~million listing-days at risk of a first cut, the listing-age bins are jointly significant ($\chi^2(8) = 157$) and the coefficients rise monotonically from 0.91 (days 1--3, relative to the entry day) to 1.8 (beyond three weeks), so the first half of H2 is supported: the probability of a markdown increases with the time a vehicle has been on the lot and then plateaus. Relative price matters: a listing that enters 10~percent above its hedonic value has a 7.7~percent higher daily markdown hazard (coefficient 0.74 on the residual, $p < 0.001$), and a 10~percent higher price than its local competitor set adds 3.9~percent ($p < 0.001$); the listing-level Cox model with dealer-clustered sandwich errors (column~2) gives almost identical coefficients (0.72 and 0.36). Higher-mileage vehicles are cut more often (a 10~percent higher mileage raises the hazard by about 1~percent), while the price level itself and the vehicle's age are not related to the markdown hazard once the relative price is held fixed. The density of local competitors is the one preregistered covariate without a stable effect: its coefficient is positive and significant in the Cox model (0.11) but close to zero and insignificant in the discrete-time model with region and calendar-week effects (0.02, standard error 0.03), and the robustness suite shows that it changes sign across markdown definitions. The cut-size regression (column~5) is unambiguous: the first cut is 2.7~percent of the entry price at the median, it is larger for listings that entered above their hedonic value (a 10~percent overpricing raises the cut by 22~percent) and for expensive vehicles in absolute terms, and it declines with listing age at the time of the cut, that is, late cuts are smaller than early ones. | ||
| 6 | 6 | ||||
| 7 | \begin{table}[tbp]\centering\caption{Markdown and listing-exit models (S2)}\label{tab:hazards} | 7 | \begin{table}[tbp]\centering\caption{Markdown and listing-exit models (S2)}\label{tab:hazards} | ||
| 8 | \scriptsize\input{tables/tab05_hazards} | 8 | \scriptsize\input{tables/tab05_hazards} | ||
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Figure~\ref{fig:hazards}(a) shows the empirical daily hazard of a first sustaine | |||||
| 14 | 14 | ||||
| 15 | \subsection{Competitor price response (H3)} | 15 | \subsection{Competitor price response (H3)} | ||
| 16 | 16 | ||||
| 17 | −Figure~\ref{fig:es} and Table~\ref{tab:competition} report the event study of equation~\eqref{eq:es}. The daily probability that a dealer cuts the price of a listing is 1.44~percent on average. On the day a close competitor (same make and model, model year within one year, within 25~km) cuts its price, that probability is 0.89 percentage points higher (standard error 0.21), a 60~percent increase relative to the base rate. The association is, however, entirely contemporaneous: the coefficients for days $+1$ to $+6$ are zero or negative, and the only other positive coefficients appear at $k=+7$, $k=+14$ and $k=-7$, a weekly periodicity. The leads are jointly significant ($p < 10^{-4}$), so the pretrend test fails in the sense that a dealer's cut today also predicts a competitor's cut a week later; lagged and lead sums are of the same order. Adding dealer-by-weekday fixed effects, which absorb each dealer's repricing calendar, reduces the same-day coefficient to 0.55 points and the seven-day harmonics to 0.17 and 0.33 points, but does not change the picture. The placebo, in which competitor series are permuted across listings within make--model cells, yields coefficients indistinguishable from zero at every horizon (joint $p = 0.18$), which confirms that the same-day association is spatially structured and not an artefact of the fixed effects. Results are similar at 10~km (larger coefficients, fewer competitors) and 50~km (smaller), when errors are clustered by region, and with coarser fixed effects. For the first markdown only (panel~b), the same-day coefficient is 2.6 points against a base rate of 4.9~percent, with negative leads, consistent with the fact that a listing that has just been cut by a neighbour is often one that was about to be cut anyway. | 17 | +Figure~\ref{fig:es} and Table~\ref{tab:competition} report the event study of equation~\eqref{eq:es}. The daily probability that a dealer cuts the price of a listing is 1.44~percent on average. On the day a close competitor (same make and model, model year within one year, within 25~km) cuts its price, that probability is 0.89 percentage points higher (standard error 0.21), a 60~percent increase relative to the base rate. The association is, however, entirely contemporaneous: the coefficients for days $+1$ to $+6$ are zero or negative, and the only other positive coefficients appear at $k=+7$, $k=+14$ and $k=-7$, a weekly periodicity. The leads are jointly significant ($p < 10^{-4}$), so the pretrend test fails in the sense that a dealer's cut today also predicts a competitor's cut a week later; lagged and lead sums are of the same order. Adding dealer-by-weekday fixed effects, which absorb each dealer's repricing calendar, reduces the same-day coefficient to 0.55 points and the seven-day harmonics to 0.17 and 0.33 points, but does not change the picture. The placebo, in which competitor series are permuted across listings within make--model cells, yields coefficients indistinguishable from zero at every horizon (joint $p = 0.18$), which confirms that the same-day association is spatially structured and not an artefact of the fixed effects. Results are similar at 10~km (larger coefficients, fewer competitors) and 50~km (smaller), when errors are clustered by region, and with coarser fixed effects. For the first markdown only (panel~b), the same-day coefficient is 0.73 points against a base rate of 1.14~percent, again with no lagged response and the same weekly harmonics (0.49 points with dealer-by-weekday effects). | ||
| 18 | 18 | ||||
| 19 | We draw two conclusions. First, there is no evidence of a lagged strategic response: dealers do not follow a competitor's cut within the next one to six days. Second, the strong same-day co-movement, its weekly harmonics and its robustness to dealer-by-weekday effects point to common local shocks and synchronised repricing routines (dealers and dealer groups that update their inventory feeds on fixed days, manufacturer incentive calendars, local demand shocks) rather than to observation and reaction. Because the design has no exogenous source of variation in competitor cuts, the estimates are associations and we make no causal claim; the reflection problem of \citet{manski1993reflection} applies with full force. | 19 | We draw two conclusions. First, there is no evidence of a lagged strategic response: dealers do not follow a competitor's cut within the next one to six days. Second, the strong same-day co-movement, its weekly harmonics and its robustness to dealer-by-weekday effects point to common local shocks and synchronised repricing routines (dealers and dealer groups that update their inventory feeds on fixed days, manufacturer incentive calendars, local demand shocks) rather than to observation and reaction. Because the design has no exogenous source of variation in competitor cuts, the estimates are associations and we make no causal claim; the reflection problem of \citet{manski1993reflection} applies with full force. | ||
| 20 | 20 | ||||
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paper/sections/results_prices.tex
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@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ The preregistered test of H1 is decisive (Table~\ref{tab:hedtests}): the nonline | |||||
| 22 | 22 | ||||
| 23 | \subsection{Regional segmentation (H4)} | 23 | \subsection{Regional segmentation (H4)} | ||
| 24 | 24 | ||||
| 25 | −Table~\ref{tab:regions} and Figure~\ref{fig:map} report the region effects. With make--model--trim fixed effects, mileage, age, powertrain, body, transmission, drivetrain, entry week and source class held fixed, the sixteen regional premia relative to Montréal range from $-1.0$~percent (Lanaudière) to $+3.7$~percent (Bas-Saint-Laurent); none is individually significant at the 5~percent level with dealer-clustered standard errors, and the joint test does not reject equality ($\chi^2(16) = 14.9$, $p = 0.53$). The point estimates have a mild geographic pattern, with the remote regions (Bas-Saint-Laurent, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Gaspésie, Saguenay) 2--4~percent above Montréal, consistent with transport costs and thinner local supply, but the data cannot distinguish these from zero. The Outaouais, which borders Ontario, asks 2.1~percent more than Montréal ($p = 0.14$), so there is no evidence of a cross-border discount. Within-specification dispersion, measured by the interquartile range of A2 residuals, is larger in the remote regions, that is, prices for the same vehicle are more dispersed where there are fewer competing listings. We therefore read H4 as a precisely estimated null: the Quebec used-car market is integrated in quality-adjusted asking prices, at least at the resolution of administrative regions and within a single quarter. | 25 | +Table~\ref{tab:regions} and Figure~\ref{fig:map} report the region effects. With make--model--trim fixed effects, mileage, age, powertrain, body, transmission, drivetrain, entry week and source class held fixed, the sixteen regional premia relative to Montréal range from $-1.0$~percent (Lanaudière) to $+3.7$~percent (Bas-Saint-Laurent); none is individually significant at the 5~percent level with dealer-clustered standard errors, and the joint test does not reject equality ($\chi^2(16) = 14.9$, $p = 0.53$). The point estimates have a mild geographic pattern, with the remote regions (Bas-Saint-Laurent, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Gaspésie, Saguenay) 2--4~percent above Montréal, consistent with transport costs and thinner local supply, but the data cannot distinguish these from zero. The Outaouais, which borders Ontario, asks 2.1~percent more than Montréal ($p = 0.14$), so there is no evidence of a cross-border discount. Within-specification dispersion, measured by the interquartile range of A2 residuals, is larger in the remote regions, that is, prices for the same vehicle are more dispersed where there are fewer competing listings. The conclusion is, however, sensitive to the quality controls: with make--model fixed effects only (Model A2, Table~\ref{tab:regions}, fourth column) the region effects are jointly significant ($p = 0.004$) even though every premium remains within $\pm 3$~percent, and adding the sampled portals to the sample also produces a rejection with trim fixed effects ($p = 0.014$; Section~\ref{sec:robust}). We therefore read H4 not as a strict null but as a bound: regional differences in quality-adjusted asking prices exist at most at the level of a few percent, smaller than the within-region dispersion for the same vehicle, and they are not statistically detectable once trim-level quality is held fixed. | ||
| 26 | 26 | ||||
| 27 | \begin{table}[tbp]\centering\caption{Quality-adjusted regional premia and dispersion}\label{tab:regions} | 27 | \begin{table}[tbp]\centering\caption{Quality-adjusted regional premia and dispersion}\label{tab:regions} | ||
| 28 | \tabsize\input{tables/tab06b_region_premia} | 28 | \tabsize\input{tables/tab06b_region_premia} | ||
modified
paper/sections/robustness.tex
+2 −2
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ | |||||
| 2 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | \subsection{Sensitivity analyses} | 3 | \subsection{Sensitivity analyses} | ||
| 4 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | −Table~\ref{tab:robust} summarises the sensitivity of the headline estimates to the main measurement and sample choices, following the list fixed in the analysis plan: alternative markdown thresholds (0.5 and 2~percent), transient rules (24 and 72~hours), exit-confirmation windows (3 and 14~days), inclusion of the sampled portals and of private-seller listings in the hedonic sample, wider price filters, inclusion of the left-censored stock in the hazards, heterogeneity of the depreciation slopes by powertrain, model-year band, body class and source class, composition reweighting of the dealer-website sample to the portal's make--model--year distribution, alternative standardisation, aggregation and minimum-size rules for the liquidity index, and competitor radii of 10 and 50~km (Table~\ref{tab:competition}). | 5 | +Table~\ref{tab:robust} summarises the sensitivity of the headline estimates. Three results are not robust and are reported as such: the joint test of regional premia rejects with make--model controls or when the sampled portals are included, although every premium stays within a few percent; the exit-hazard coefficient on the entry residual changes sign when the left-censored stock is included (that stock has unknown listing age, so this variant is a lower bound on age and not a preferred specification); and the held-out validation of the liquidity index loses significance under rank standardisation and at two-week aggregation. The depreciation slopes, the listing-age profiles of both hazards, the relative-price effects on the markdown hazard and the cut size, the competitor event study and the leave-one-component-out checks are stable; the competitor-density coefficient in the markdown hazard is not (it changes sign across markdown definitions and is never significant with dealer clusters). An earlier version of the first-markdown model had conditioned on listings that eventually receive a cut because of a null-handling error in the risk set; it was discovered by the robustness audit, corrected, and the whole pipeline was rerun (experiment log E-016). The remainder of the table lists the sensitivity to the main measurement and sample choices, following the list fixed in the analysis plan: alternative markdown thresholds (0.5 and 2~percent), transient rules (24 and 72~hours), exit-confirmation windows (3 and 14~days), inclusion of the sampled portals and of private-seller listings in the hedonic sample, wider price filters, inclusion of the left-censored stock in the hazards, heterogeneity of the depreciation slopes by powertrain, model-year band, body class and source class, composition reweighting of the dealer-website sample to the portal's make--model--year distribution, alternative standardisation, aggregation and minimum-size rules for the liquidity index, and competitor radii of 10 and 50~km (Table~\ref{tab:competition}). | ||
| 6 | 6 | ||||
| 7 | \IfFileExists{tables/tab09_robustness.tex}{% | 7 | \IfFileExists{tables/tab09_robustness.tex}{% | ||
| 8 | \begin{table}[tbp]\centering\caption{Identification threats and sensitivity summary}\label{tab:robust} | 8 | \begin{table}[tbp]\centering\caption{Identification threats and sensitivity summary}\label{tab:robust} | ||
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Table~\ref{tab:robust} summarises the sensitivity of the headline estimates to t | |||||
| 12 | 12 | ||||
| 13 | \subsection{Multiple testing} | 13 | \subsection{Multiple testing} | ||
| 14 | 14 | ||||
| 15 | −The six primary preregistered tests are: H1 (joint nonlinearity, $p < 10^{-100}$), H2 (listing-age profile of the markdown hazard, $p < 10^{-30}$), H3 (sum of lag coefficients $k = 0$ to $7$, $p < 10^{-12}$, an association), H4 (joint region test, $p = 0.53$), H5 (entry hedonic residual in the exit hazard, $p = 0.42$) and H6 (held-out validation slope, $p < 10^{-10}$). Holm's step-down adjustment leaves the conclusions unchanged: H1, H2, H3 and H6 remain significant at any conventional level and H4 and H5 are not rejected. The null results are therefore not artefacts of the number of tests, and the positive ones are not artefacts of selective reporting; every estimated specification, including failed and null ones, is retained in the experiment log. | 15 | +The six primary preregistered tests are: H1 (joint nonlinearity, $p = 3\times10^{-134}$), H2 (listing-age profile of the markdown hazard, $p = 7\times10^{-30}$), H3 (joint test of the competitor-cut lags, $p = 1\times10^{-14}$, an association), H4 (joint region test in A4, $p = 0.53$), H5 (entry hedonic residual in the exit hazard, $p = 0.42$) and H6 (held-out validation slope, $p = 2\times10^{-13}$). Holm's step-down adjustment (\texttt{results/robustness/holm\_primary\_tests.csv}) leaves the conclusions unchanged: H1, H2, H3 and H6 remain significant at any conventional level (adjusted $p \le 6\times10^{-13}$) and H4 and H5 are not rejected (adjusted $p = 0.85$). The null results are therefore not artefacts of the number of tests, and the positive ones are not artefacts of selective reporting; every estimated specification, including failed and null ones, is retained in the experiment log. | ||
| 16 | 16 | ||||
| 17 | \subsection{Identification threats} | 17 | \subsection{Identification threats} | ||
| 18 | 18 | ||||
modified
paper/tables/tab03_descriptives.tex
+1 −1
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ Vehicle age at entry, mean (years) & 5.7 & 5.5 \\ | |||||
| 19 | \addlinespace | 19 | \addlinespace | ||
| 20 | \multicolumn{3}{l}{\textit{Body type, top 5 (\% of listings)}} \\ | 20 | \multicolumn{3}{l}{\textit{Body type, top 5 (\% of listings)}} \\ | ||
| 21 | \quad SUV & 56.7 & 57.1 \\ | 21 | \quad SUV & 56.7 & 57.1 \\ | ||
| 22 | −\quad Sedan & 20.8 & 20.7 \\ | 22 | +\quad Sedan & 20.7 & 20.7 \\ | ||
| 23 | \quad Pickup & 10.6 & 10.3 \\ | 23 | \quad Pickup & 10.6 & 10.3 \\ | ||
| 24 | \quad Hatchback & 4.2 & 4.4 \\ | 24 | \quad Hatchback & 4.2 & 4.4 \\ | ||
| 25 | \quad Van & 3.1 & 3.0 \\ | 25 | \quad Van & 3.1 & 3.0 \\ | ||
modified
paper/tables/tab04_hedonic.tex
+1 −1
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Battery electric & 0.056$^{***}$ & 0.060$^{***}$ & 0.059$^{***}$ & 0.099$^{***}$ | |||||
| 11 | & (0.011) & (0.011) & (0.011) & (0.023) & (0.019) & (0.014) \\ | 11 | & (0.011) & (0.011) & (0.011) & (0.023) & (0.019) & (0.014) \\ | ||
| 12 | Hybrid & 0.072$^{***}$ & 0.075$^{***}$ & 0.074$^{***}$ & 0.047$^{***}$ & 0.044$^{***}$ & 0.031$^{***}$ \\ | 12 | Hybrid & 0.072$^{***}$ & 0.075$^{***}$ & 0.074$^{***}$ & 0.047$^{***}$ & 0.044$^{***}$ & 0.031$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 13 | & (0.008) & (0.008) & (0.008) & (0.013) & (0.011) & (0.010) \\ | 13 | & (0.008) & (0.008) & (0.008) & (0.013) & (0.011) & (0.010) \\ | ||
| 14 | −Plug-in hybrid & 0.106$^{***}$ & 0.118$^{***}$ & 0.117$^{***}$ & 0.134 & 0.031$^{***}$ & 0.033$^{***}$ \\ | 14 | +Plug-in hybrid & 0.106$^{***}$ & 0.118$^{***}$ & 0.117$^{***}$ & 0.135 & 0.031$^{***}$ & 0.033$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 15 | & (0.017) & (0.019) & (0.019) & (0.719) & (0.012) & (0.011) \\ | 15 | & (0.017) & (0.019) & (0.019) & (0.719) & (0.012) & (0.011) \\ | ||
| 16 | Diesel & 0.079$^{***}$ & 0.091$^{***}$ & 0.090$^{***}$ & -0.011 & 0.057$^{***}$ & 0.047$^{***}$ \\ | 16 | Diesel & 0.079$^{***}$ & 0.091$^{***}$ & 0.090$^{***}$ & -0.011 & 0.057$^{***}$ & 0.047$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 17 | & (0.010) & (0.009) & (0.009) & (0.014) & (0.015) & (0.013) \\ | 17 | & (0.010) & (0.009) & (0.009) & (0.014) & (0.015) & (0.013) \\ | ||
modified
paper/tables/tab04b_hedonic_tests.tex
+5 −5
@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@ | |||||
| 2 | \toprule | 2 | \toprule | ||
| 3 | Test & $\chi^2$ & df & $p$ \\ | 3 | Test & $\chi^2$ & df & $p$ \\ | ||
| 4 | \midrule | 4 | \midrule | ||
| 5 | −H1: nonlinear age terms = 0 (A2) & 340.0 & 6 & 2.12e-70 \\ | 5 | +H1: nonlinear age terms = 0 (A2) & 340.1 & 6 & 2.01e-70 \\ | ||
| 6 | −H1: nonlinear mileage terms = 0 (A2) & 412.9 & 6 & 4.77e-86 \\ | 6 | +H1: nonlinear mileage terms = 0 (A2) & 412.8 & 6 & 5.06e-86 \\ | ||
| 7 | −H1: all nonlinear terms = 0 (A2) & 663.8 & 12 & 2.45e-134 \\ | 7 | +H1: all nonlinear terms = 0 (A2) & 663.6 & 12 & 2.73e-134 \\ | ||
| 8 | −H1: age $\times$ mileage tensor = 0 (A2t) & 662.6 & 49 & 1.88e-108 \\ | 8 | +H1: age $\times$ mileage tensor = 0 (A2t) & 661.2 & 49 & 3.69e-108 \\ | ||
| 9 | −H1: age profile $\times$ powertrain = 0 (A3) & 312.2 & 35 & 3.27e-46 \\ | 9 | +H1: age profile $\times$ powertrain = 0 (A3) & 312.1 & 35 & 3.37e-46 \\ | ||
| 10 | H4: region effects = 0 (A4) & 14.9 & 16 & 0.534 \\ | 10 | H4: region effects = 0 (A4) & 14.9 & 16 & 0.534 \\ | ||
| 11 | \bottomrule | 11 | \bottomrule | ||
| 12 | \end{tabular} | 12 | \end{tabular} | ||
modified
paper/tables/tab05_hazards.tex
+17 −17
@@ -5,28 +5,28 @@ | |||||
| 5 | & cloglog & Cox & cloglog & Cox & log(\%) \\ | 5 | & cloglog & Cox & cloglog & Cox & log(\%) \\ | ||
| 6 | \midrule | 6 | \midrule | ||
| 7 | log(1 + competitors within 25 km) & 0.019 & 0.114$^{***}$ & 0.033 & 0.050$^{*}$ & -0.027$^{**}$ \\ | 7 | log(1 + competitors within 25 km) & 0.019 & 0.114$^{***}$ & 0.033 & 0.050$^{*}$ & -0.027$^{**}$ \\ | ||
| 8 | − & (0.016) & (0.025) & (0.030) & (0.029) & (0.011) \\ | 8 | + & (0.029) & (0.025) & (0.030) & (0.029) & (0.011) \\ | ||
| 9 | −Entry hedonic residual (relative price) & 0.256 & 0.716$^{***}$ & 0.180 & 0.129 & 2.224$^{***}$ \\ | 9 | +Entry hedonic residual (relative price) & 0.744$^{***}$ & 0.716$^{***}$ & 0.180 & 0.129 & 2.224$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 10 | − & (0.186) & (0.206) & (0.225) & (0.209) & (0.221) \\ | 10 | + & (0.223) & (0.206) & (0.225) & (0.209) & (0.221) \\ | ||
| 11 | −Price position vs competitors at entry & 0.032 & 0.356$^{***}$ & -- & -0.155 & -- \\ | 11 | +Price position vs competitors at entry & 0.379$^{***}$ & 0.356$^{***}$ & -- & -0.156 & -- \\ | ||
| 12 | − & (0.083) & (0.116) & & (0.125) & \\ | 12 | + & (0.113) & (0.116) & & (0.125) & \\ | ||
| 13 | Current price position vs competitors & -- & -- & -0.159 & -- & -- \\ | 13 | Current price position vs competitors & -- & -- & -0.159 & -- & -- \\ | ||
| 14 | & & & (0.139) & & \\ | 14 | & & & (0.139) & & \\ | ||
| 15 | Prior sustained cuts (count) & -- & -- & 0.033 & -- & -- \\ | 15 | Prior sustained cuts (count) & -- & -- & 0.033 & -- & -- \\ | ||
| 16 | & & & (0.036) & & \\ | 16 | & & & (0.036) & & \\ | ||
| 17 | −log entry price & -0.134$^{***}$ & 0.091 & -0.307$^{***}$ & -0.256$^{***}$ & -1.526$^{***}$ \\ | 17 | +log entry price & 0.007 & 0.091 & -0.307$^{***}$ & -0.255$^{***}$ & -1.526$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 18 | − & (0.049) & (0.079) & (0.111) & (0.095) & (0.117) \\ | 18 | + & (0.091) & (0.079) & (0.111) & (0.095) & (0.117) \\ | ||
| 19 | −log mileage & -0.079$^{***}$ & 0.106$^{***}$ & -0.512$^{***}$ & -0.490$^{***}$ & -0.194$^{***}$ \\ | 19 | +log mileage & 0.116$^{***}$ & 0.106$^{***}$ & -0.512$^{***}$ & -0.490$^{***}$ & -0.194$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 20 | − & (0.024) & (0.039) & (0.070) & (0.070) & (0.018) \\ | 20 | + & (0.037) & (0.039) & (0.070) & (0.070) & (0.018) \\ | ||
| 21 | −Vehicle age at entry (years) & 0.013$^{**}$ & -0.010 & 0.034$^{**}$ & 0.038$^{***}$ & -0.069$^{***}$ \\ | 21 | +Vehicle age at entry (years) & -0.022 & -0.010 & 0.034$^{**}$ & 0.038$^{***}$ & -0.069$^{***}$ \\ | ||
| 22 | − & (0.006) & (0.012) & (0.015) & (0.014) & (0.010) \\ | 22 | + & (0.013) & (0.012) & (0.015) & (0.014) & (0.010) \\ | ||
| 23 | −Own-dealer same-model stock & 0.000 & -- & 0.009 & -- & -- \\ | 23 | +Own-dealer same-model stock & -0.000 & -- & 0.009 & -- & -- \\ | ||
| 24 | − & (0.002) & & (0.006) & & \\ | 24 | + & (0.004) & & (0.006) & & \\ | ||
| 25 | \midrule | 25 | \midrule | ||
| 26 | −Listing-age bins (joint $\chi^2$, df 8) & 169.8 & -- & 103.5 & -- & -- \\ | 26 | +Listing-age bins (joint $\chi^2$, df 8) & 157.0 & -- & 103.6 & -- & -- \\ | ||
| 27 | −Listing-days / listings & 318\,323 & 79\,699 & 1\,663\,764 & 79\,699 & 15\,692 \\ | 27 | +Listing-days / listings & 1\,371\,918 & 79\,698 & 1\,663\,763 & 79\,698 & 15\,692 \\ | ||
| 28 | −Events & 15\,692 & 15\,692 & 43\,311 & 43\,311 & -- \\ | 28 | +Events & 15\,692 & 15\,692 & 43\,310 & 43\,310 & -- \\ | ||
| 29 | Concordance / within $R^2$ & -- & 0.575 & -- & 0.648 & 0.233 \\ | 29 | Concordance / within $R^2$ & -- & 0.575 & -- & 0.648 & 0.233 \\ | ||
| 30 | −PH test: covariates with $p<0.01$ & -- & 5 & -- & 9 & -- \\ | 30 | +PH test: covariates with $p<0.01$ & -- & 5 & -- & 8 & -- \\ | ||
| 31 | \bottomrule | 31 | \bottomrule | ||
| 32 | \end{tabular} | 32 | \end{tabular} | ||
modified
paper/tables/tab06_competition.tex
+24 −24
@@ -2,30 +2,30 @@ | |||||
| 2 | \toprule | 2 | \toprule | ||
| 3 | & Main, 25 km & Cluster: region & 10 km & 50 km & Coarse FE & Placebo & + dealer $\times$ weekday FE & First cut, + dealer $\times$ weekday \\ | 3 | & Main, 25 km & Cluster: region & 10 km & 50 km & Coarse FE & Placebo & + dealer $\times$ weekday FE & First cut, + dealer $\times$ weekday \\ | ||
| 4 | \midrule | 4 | \midrule | ||
| 5 | −$k=-7$ & 0.42 & 0.42 & 0.59 & 0.40 & 0.35 & -0.04 & 0.12 & -0.98 \\ | 5 | +$k=-7$ & 0.42 & 0.42 & 0.59 & 0.40 & 0.35 & -0.05 & 0.12 & 0.12 \\ | ||
| 6 | − & (0.15) & (0.11) & (0.15) & (0.12) & (0.14) & (0.04) & (0.14) & (0.34) \\ | 6 | + & (0.15) & (0.11) & (0.15) & (0.12) & (0.14) & (0.04) & (0.14) & (0.11) \\ | ||
| 7 | −$k=-3$ & -0.04 & -0.04 & 0.09 & -0.07 & 0.04 & 0.07 & 0.00 & -0.84 \\ | 7 | +$k=-3$ & -0.04 & -0.04 & 0.09 & -0.07 & 0.04 & 0.07 & 0.00 & 0.00 \\ | ||
| 8 | − & (0.06) & (0.09) & (0.12) & (0.05) & (0.06) & (0.04) & (0.05) & (0.20) \\ | 8 | + & (0.06) & (0.09) & (0.12) & (0.05) & (0.06) & (0.04) & (0.05) & (0.05) \\ | ||
| 9 | −$k=-1$ & -0.07 & -0.07 & -0.00 & -0.08 & 0.10 & -0.00 & -0.03 & -0.43 \\ | 9 | +$k=-1$ & -0.07 & -0.07 & -0.00 & -0.08 & 0.10 & -0.01 & -0.03 & 0.01 \\ | ||
| 10 | − & (0.12) & (0.08) & (0.20) & (0.08) & (0.11) & (0.03) & (0.10) & (0.29) \\ | 10 | + & (0.12) & (0.08) & (0.20) & (0.08) & (0.11) & (0.03) & (0.10) & (0.09) \\ | ||
| 11 | −$k=0$ & 0.89 & 0.89 & 1.80 & 0.63 & 1.10 & 0.01 & 0.55 & 1.77 \\ | 11 | +$k=0$ & 0.89 & 0.89 & 1.80 & 0.63 & 1.10 & 0.01 & 0.55 & 0.49 \\ | ||
| 12 | − & (0.21) & (0.21) & (0.55) & (0.13) & (0.20) & (0.04) & (0.20) & (0.50) \\ | 12 | + & (0.21) & (0.21) & (0.55) & (0.13) & (0.20) & (0.04) & (0.20) & (0.17) \\ | ||
| 13 | −$k=+1$ & -0.11 & -0.11 & 0.11 & -0.20 & 0.07 & 0.04 & -0.01 & 0.31 \\ | 13 | +$k=+1$ & -0.11 & -0.11 & 0.11 & -0.20 & 0.07 & 0.03 & -0.01 & 0.06 \\ | ||
| 14 | − & (0.20) & (0.12) & (0.44) & (0.17) & (0.20) & (0.04) & (0.18) & (0.45) \\ | 14 | + & (0.20) & (0.12) & (0.44) & (0.17) & (0.20) & (0.04) & (0.18) & (0.15) \\ | ||
| 15 | −$k=+2$ & -0.24 & -0.24 & -0.15 & -0.28 & -0.11 & -0.04 & -0.16 & -0.52 \\ | 15 | +$k=+2$ & -0.24 & -0.24 & -0.15 & -0.28 & -0.11 & -0.04 & -0.16 & -0.11 \\ | ||
| 16 | − & (0.07) & (0.07) & (0.11) & (0.06) & (0.06) & (0.04) & (0.07) & (0.20) \\ | 16 | + & (0.07) & (0.07) & (0.11) & (0.06) & (0.06) & (0.04) & (0.07) & (0.06) \\ | ||
| 17 | −$k=+3$ & -0.08 & -0.08 & 0.12 & -0.10 & 0.04 & -0.04 & -0.03 & 0.07 \\ | 17 | +$k=+3$ & -0.08 & -0.08 & 0.12 & -0.10 & 0.04 & -0.04 & -0.03 & 0.02 \\ | ||
| 18 | − & (0.08) & (0.08) & (0.10) & (0.07) & (0.08) & (0.04) & (0.06) & (0.23) \\ | 18 | + & (0.08) & (0.08) & (0.10) & (0.07) & (0.08) & (0.04) & (0.06) & (0.06) \\ | ||
| 19 | −$k=+7$ & 0.45 & 0.45 & 0.66 & 0.54 & 0.42 & 0.10 & 0.17 & 0.65 \\ | 19 | +$k=+7$ & 0.45 & 0.45 & 0.66 & 0.54 & 0.42 & 0.07 & 0.17 & 0.16 \\ | ||
| 20 | − & (0.08) & (0.08) & (0.17) & (0.06) & (0.08) & (0.06) & (0.06) & (0.20) \\ | 20 | + & (0.08) & (0.08) & (0.17) & (0.06) & (0.08) & (0.06) & (0.06) & (0.07) \\ | ||
| 21 | −$k=+14$ & 0.59 & 0.59 & 0.81 & 0.55 & 0.57 & 0.09 & 0.33 & 1.04 \\ | 21 | +$k=+14$ & 0.59 & 0.59 & 0.81 & 0.55 & 0.57 & 0.08 & 0.33 & 0.33 \\ | ||
| 22 | − & (0.11) & (0.09) & (0.22) & (0.09) & (0.11) & (0.08) & (0.09) & (0.33) \\ | 22 | + & (0.11) & (0.09) & (0.22) & (0.09) & (0.11) & (0.08) & (0.09) & (0.11) \\ | ||
| 23 | \midrule | 23 | \midrule | ||
| 24 | −Sum of leads $k=-7..-1$ & 0.37 & 0.37 & 0.90 & 0.24 & 0.69 & 0.05 & 0.50 & -5.14 \\ | 24 | +Sum of leads $k=-7..-1$ & 0.37 & 0.37 & 0.90 & 0.24 & 0.69 & 0.04 & 0.50 & 0.42 \\ | ||
| 25 | −\quad joint $p$ & 3.2e-05 & 1.5e-13 & 3.7e-06 & 3.8e-07 & 0.00087 & 0.22 & 2.5e-05 & 6.7e-08 \\ | 25 | +\quad joint $p$ & 3.2e-05 & 1.5e-13 & 3.7e-06 & 3.8e-07 & 0.00087 & 0.26 & 2.5e-05 & 4.4e-06 \\ | ||
| 26 | −Sum of lags $k=0..7$ & 0.95 & 0.95 & 2.92 & 0.73 & 1.70 & -0.03 & 0.71 & 3.29 \\ | 26 | +Sum of lags $k=0..7$ & 0.95 & 0.95 & 2.92 & 0.73 & 1.70 & -0.03 & 0.71 & 0.85 \\ | ||
| 27 | −\quad joint $p$ & 4.3e-13 & 1.3e-147 & 2.9e-08 & 3e-21 & 6.5e-18 & 0.18 & 0.00021 & 3.5e-09 \\ | 27 | +\quad joint $p$ & 4.3e-13 & 1.2e-147 & 2.9e-08 & 3e-21 & 6.5e-18 & 0.42 & 0.00021 & 5.5e-05 \\ | ||
| 28 | −Daily base rate (\%) & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 4.93 \\ | 28 | +Daily base rate (\%) & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.44 & 1.14 \\ | ||
| 29 | −Listing-days & 1\,663\,764 & 1\,663\,764 & 1\,663\,764 & 1\,663\,764 & 1\,663\,764 & 1\,663\,764 & 1\,663\,764 & 318\,323 \\ | 29 | +Listing-days & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,663\,763 & 1\,371\,918 \\ | ||
| 30 | \bottomrule | 30 | \bottomrule | ||
| 31 | \end{tabular} | 31 | \end{tabular} | ||
modified
paper/tables/tab07_amli.tex
+5 −5
@@ -3,17 +3,17 @@ | |||||
| 3 | Component & Equal & PCA loading & Supervised & Leave-one-out corr. \\ | 3 | Component & Equal & PCA loading & Supervised & Leave-one-out corr. \\ | ||
| 4 | \midrule | 4 | \midrule | ||
| 5 | Exit intensity & 0.20 & +0.41 & -- & 0.94 \\ | 5 | Exit intensity & 0.20 & +0.41 & -- & 0.94 \\ | ||
| 6 | −Markdown frequency & 0.20 & +0.35 & +0.0012 & 0.91 \\ | 6 | +Markdown frequency & 0.20 & +0.35 & +0.0011 & 0.91 \\ | ||
| 7 | −Markdown depth & 0.20 & -0.51 & -0.0039 & 0.95 \\ | 7 | +Markdown depth & 0.20 & -0.50 & -0.0039 & 0.95 \\ | ||
| 8 | −Residual dispersion (sign reversed) & 0.20 & +0.52 & -0.0016 & 0.91 \\ | 8 | +Residual dispersion (sign reversed) & 0.20 & +0.51 & -0.0015 & 0.91 \\ | ||
| 9 | Arrival rate & 0.20 & +0.44 & +0.0015 & 0.94 \\ | 9 | Arrival rate & 0.20 & +0.44 & +0.0015 & 0.94 \\ | ||
| 10 | \midrule | 10 | \midrule | ||
| 11 | PCA first-component share & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.56} \\ | 11 | PCA first-component share & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.56} \\ | ||
| 12 | Corr(equal, PCA) / Corr(equal, supervised) & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.85 / 0.68} \\ | 12 | Corr(equal, PCA) / Corr(equal, supervised) & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.85 / 0.68} \\ | ||
| 13 | Leave-exit-out AMLI $\to$ next-week exit (region FE) & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.96 pp [0.69, 1.24], $n$ = 68} \\ | 13 | Leave-exit-out AMLI $\to$ next-week exit (region FE) & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.96 pp [0.69, 1.24], $n$ = 68} \\ | ||
| 14 | −\quad + lagged exit & \multicolumn{4}{c}{1.03 pp [0.70, 1.35], $n$ = 68} \\ | 14 | +\quad + lagged exit & \multicolumn{4}{c}{1.02 pp [0.70, 1.35], $n$ = 68} \\ | ||
| 15 | \quad pooled OLS & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.98 pp [0.59, 1.36], $n$ = 68} \\ | 15 | \quad pooled OLS & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.98 pp [0.59, 1.36], $n$ = 68} \\ | ||
| 16 | Price-tier markets: PCA share / held-out slope & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.44 / 0.46 pp [-0.64, 1.55]} \\ | 16 | Price-tier markets: PCA share / held-out slope & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.44 / 0.46 pp [-0.64, 1.55]} \\ | ||
| 17 | −Body-type markets: PCA share / held-out slope & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.46 / 0.46 pp [0.06, 0.86]} \\ | 17 | +Body-type markets: PCA share / held-out slope & \multicolumn{4}{c}{0.46 / 0.44 pp [0.05, 0.82]} \\ | ||
| 18 | \bottomrule | 18 | \bottomrule | ||
| 19 | \end{tabular} | 19 | \end{tabular} | ||
modified
paper/tables/tab08_prediction.tex
+9 −9
@@ -3,17 +3,17 @@ | |||||
| 3 | Target & Split & Model & Log loss [95\% CI] & Brier & AUC & $n_{\text{test}}$ & Base rate \\ | 3 | Target & Split & Model & Log loss [95\% CI] & Brier & AUC & $n_{\text{test}}$ & Base rate \\ | ||
| 4 | \midrule | 4 | \midrule | ||
| 5 | Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.428 [0.417, 0.438] & 0.135 & 0.748 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\ | 5 | Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.428 [0.417, 0.438] & 0.135 & 0.748 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\ | ||
| 6 | − & & LightGBM & 0.405 [0.395, 0.415] & 0.128 & 0.785 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\ | 6 | + & & LightGBM & 0.406 [0.395, 0.416] & 0.129 & 0.784 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\ | ||
| 7 | Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.476 [0.469, 0.483] & 0.150 & 0.580 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\ | 7 | Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.476 [0.469, 0.483] & 0.150 & 0.580 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\ | ||
| 8 | − & & LightGBM & 0.494 [0.486, 0.502] & 0.153 & 0.582 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\ | 8 | + & & LightGBM & 0.484 [0.477, 0.492] & 0.151 & 0.578 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\ | ||
| 9 | −Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.508 [0.500, 0.516] & 0.163 & 0.605 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\ | 9 | +Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.508 [0.500, 0.516] & 0.163 & 0.606 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\ | ||
| 10 | − & & LightGBM & 0.526 [0.516, 0.537] & 0.166 & 0.583 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\ | 10 | + & & LightGBM & 0.529 [0.518, 0.539] & 0.167 & 0.581 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\ | ||
| 11 | \addlinespace | 11 | \addlinespace | ||
| 12 | Exit $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.609 [0.603, 0.616] & 0.212 & 0.705 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\ | 12 | Exit $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.609 [0.603, 0.616] & 0.212 & 0.705 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\ | ||
| 13 | − & & LightGBM & 0.585 [0.580, 0.591] & 0.204 & 0.727 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\ | 13 | + & & LightGBM & 0.585 [0.580, 0.592] & 0.204 & 0.727 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\ | ||
| 14 | −Exit $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.695 [0.694, 0.697] & 0.251 & 0.567 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\ | 14 | +Exit $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.695 [0.694, 0.697] & 0.251 & 0.566 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\ | ||
| 15 | − & & LightGBM & 0.681 [0.678, 0.683] & 0.244 & 0.608 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\ | 15 | + & & LightGBM & 0.682 [0.680, 0.684] & 0.244 & 0.606 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\ | ||
| 16 | −Exit $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.690 [0.687, 0.693] & 0.248 & 0.584 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\ | 16 | +Exit $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.690 [0.688, 0.693] & 0.248 & 0.584 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\ | ||
| 17 | − & & LightGBM & 0.689 [0.684, 0.692] & 0.247 & 0.607 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\ | 17 | + & & LightGBM & 0.680 [0.675, 0.684] & 0.243 & 0.613 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\ | ||
| 18 | \bottomrule | 18 | \bottomrule | ||
| 19 | \end{tabular} | 19 | \end{tabular} | ||
added
paper/tables/tab09_robustness.tex
+40 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +\begin{tabular}{llrrr} | ||||
| 2 | +\toprule | ||||
| 3 | +Check & Quantity & Baseline & Variant & Change \\ | ||||
| 4 | +\midrule | ||||
| 5 | +\multicolumn{5}{l}{\textit{Hedonic (Model A2 splines, make--model FE, dealer-clustered)}} \\ | ||||
| 6 | ++ sampled portals (autotrader, cargurus) & age slope (log \$/yr) & -0.0851 (0.0009) & -0.0865 (0.0006) & -0.0015 \\ | ||||
| 7 | ++ sampled portals & H4 region joint $p$ (A4 trim FE / A2) & 0.534 / 0.004 & 0.014 / $<$0.001 & flips \\ | ||||
| 8 | ++ Kijiji private sellers & age slope (log \$/yr) & -0.0851 (0.0009) & -0.0879 (0.0013) & -0.0028 \\ | ||||
| 9 | ++ Kijiji private sellers & H4 region joint $p$ (A4 trim FE / A2) & 0.534 / 0.004 & 0.407 / 0.002 & same \\ | ||||
| 10 | +Price filter 1\,000--500\,000\,\$ & age slope (log \$/yr) & -0.0851 (0.0009) & -0.0857 (0.0009) & -0.0007 \\ | ||||
| 11 | +Price filter 1\,000--500\,000\,\$ & H4 region joint $p$ (A4 trim FE / A2) & 0.534 / 0.004 & 0.539 / 0.007 & same \\ | ||||
| 12 | +Reweighted to otogo make--model--year mix & age slope (log \$/yr) & -0.0851 (0.0009) & -0.0846 (0.0009) & +0.0005 \\ | ||||
| 13 | +Reweighted to otogo make--model--year mix & H4 region joint $p$ (A4 trim FE / A2) & 0.534 / 0.004 & 0.475 / 0.014 & same \\ | ||||
| 14 | +Heterogeneity: powertrain & age slope: ICE vs BEV & -0.0852 (0.0009) & -0.0942 (0.0031) & -0.0090 \\ | ||||
| 15 | +Heterogeneity: model-year band & age slope: $\leq$2015 vs 2021+ & -0.0934 (0.0027) & -0.0751 (0.0019) & +0.0183 \\ | ||||
| 16 | +Heterogeneity: body & km slope: SUV vs Pickup & -0.0306 (0.0004) & -0.0255 (0.0009) & +0.0051 \\ | ||||
| 17 | +Heterogeneity: source class & age slope: direct\_dealer vs full\_portal & -0.0854 (0.0015) & -0.0844 (0.0011) & +0.0010 \\ | ||||
| 18 | +\addlinespace | ||||
| 19 | +\multicolumn{5}{l}{\textit{Hazards (cloglog, dealer-clustered; $\leq$800k listing-day subsample)}} \\ | ||||
| 20 | +Markdown $\geq$2\,\%/200\,\$ & B: coef.\ ldens & 0.017 (0.030) & -0.022 (0.029) & -0.040 \\ | ||||
| 21 | +Markdown $\geq$0.5\,\%/50\,\$ & B: coef.\ ldens & 0.017 (0.030) & 0.029 (0.029) & +0.012 \\ | ||||
| 22 | +Transient rule 24\,h & B: coef.\ ldens & 0.017 (0.030) & 0.007 (0.029) & -0.010 \\ | ||||
| 23 | +Transient rule 72\,h & B: coef.\ ldens & 0.017 (0.030) & 0.022 (0.030) & +0.005 \\ | ||||
| 24 | +Exit confirmation 3\,d & C: coef.\ resid\_A2 & 0.211 (0.234) & 0.151 (0.227) & -0.060 \\ | ||||
| 25 | +Exit confirmation 14\,d & C: coef.\ resid\_A2 & 0.211 (0.234) & 0.202 (0.242) & -0.008 \\ | ||||
| 26 | +S2L (left-censored stock included) & C: coef.\ resid\_A2 & 0.211 (0.234) & -0.395 (0.166) & -0.605 \\ | ||||
| 27 | +S2L (left-censored stock included) & C: coef.\ ldens & 0.033 (0.030) & 0.057 (0.023) & +0.023 \\ | ||||
| 28 | +\addlinespace | ||||
| 29 | +\multicolumn{5}{l}{\textit{AMLI (leave-exit-out index $\to$ next-week exit intensity, region FE)}} \\ | ||||
| 30 | +Rank standardisation & slope $\hat\beta$ (s.e.) & 0.0096 (0.0013) & 0.0046 (0.0029) & -0.0051 \\ | ||||
| 31 | +Min.\ 100 listing-days per cell & slope $\hat\beta$ (s.e.) & 0.0096 (0.0013) & 0.0096 (0.0013) & +0.0000 \\ | ||||
| 32 | +Two-week aggregation & slope $\hat\beta$ (s.e.) & 0.0096 (0.0013) & -0.0001 (0.0051) & -0.0097 \\ | ||||
| 33 | +Leave-one-component-out (min: drop mdfreq) & slope $\hat\beta$ (s.e.) & 0.0096 (0.0013) & 0.0057 (0.0019) & -0.0039 \\ | ||||
| 34 | +Leave-one-component-out (max: drop arrival) & slope $\hat\beta$ (s.e.) & 0.0096 (0.0013) & 0.0082 (0.0012) & -0.0014 \\ | ||||
| 35 | +Province vs region aggregation & corr.\ equal-weight index (weekly) & 1.000 & 0.852 & -- \\ | ||||
| 36 | +\addlinespace | ||||
| 37 | +\multicolumn{5}{l}{\textit{Multiple testing (six primary tests)}} \\ | ||||
| 38 | +Holm correction & tests rejected at 5\,\% (raw $\to$ Holm) & 4 & 4 & 0 lost \\ | ||||
| 39 | +\bottomrule | ||||
| 40 | +\end{tabular} | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/bootstrap_region_week.csv
+154 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +region,week,amli_equal_lo,amli_equal_hi,amli_pca_lo,amli_pca_hi | ||||
| 2 | +(missing),2,-1.8963004890495543,-1.0618171225647697,-2.7224834166000984,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 3 | +(missing),3,-1.8963004890495543,-0.369093463761434,-2.4493440036241436,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 4 | +(missing),4,-1.8013585676141721,-0.5253580768853914,-2.1887747944985256,-0.42526194012438984 | ||||
| 5 | +(missing),5,-1.8963004890495543,-1.210318679536,-2.6725153769211283,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 6 | +(missing),6,-1.8963004890495543,0.19176740829779135,-3.1879105619924166,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 7 | +(missing),7,-1.8963004890495543,-0.23140683125479858,-2.8892898870556474,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 8 | +(missing),8,-1.8963004890495543,-1.2360248465539567,-2.5500937833588417,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 9 | +(missing),9,-1.8963004890495543,-0.8737910577509764,-2.6989292269484135,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 10 | +(missing),10,-1.8963004890495543,-0.44530586920908466,-2.90768934012742,-0.9295940403397212 | ||||
| 11 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,2,-0.5128322047512799,0.7243220366123297,-0.7811151793779147,0.8663629274645919 | ||||
| 12 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,3,-0.5755747546209491,0.06200388641814904,-0.9962071360376307,-0.016221784905515704 | ||||
| 13 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,4,-0.5464447757484658,0.40717389348483846,-0.6293339958284011,0.4692881337116225 | ||||
| 14 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,5,-0.6724767770058514,0.26182010141186524,-1.1149080942120677,0.19550078659413914 | ||||
| 15 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,6,-0.40608755806969327,0.5336943690532586,-1.067932903745364,0.4296773694636321 | ||||
| 16 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,7,-0.560229962950646,0.07736572109246133,-1.183400912191368,0.12916479069767528 | ||||
| 17 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,8,-0.6797745733636761,0.06651564067308992,-1.2752831679970296,-0.054138107735120476 | ||||
| 18 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,9,-0.5985639938647376,0.37702656965479303,-1.0407744897097744,0.14462734720960205 | ||||
| 19 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,10,-0.7928157822810666,-0.08885853633693312,-1.108408425405199,0.024465712998400883 | ||||
| 20 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,2,-0.38674642525461506,0.1528392742358028,-0.6433230750024029,0.20552058735229878 | ||||
| 21 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,3,-0.5811700677521959,-0.054601454724971916,-0.7693659293454554,0.0026430212451319674 | ||||
| 22 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,4,-0.2833824868475991,0.3346576070746983,-0.6241306559517072,0.41851619827986025 | ||||
| 23 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,5,-0.6534147328353452,0.1172074423382139,-0.5454961988455397,0.31060592986041347 | ||||
| 24 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,6,-0.45919725695303987,0.17748160195251966,-0.5611208926610666,0.2841441560639712 | ||||
| 25 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,7,-0.45333781834411996,0.06334132437823287,-0.5760480736530202,0.21076563049117003 | ||||
| 26 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,8,-0.6639292864564956,-0.08386810364180841,-0.7792160024843103,0.17739351799318012 | ||||
| 27 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,9,-0.6006580989316865,0.1235471004006911,-0.7374730177984512,0.1833913052741111 | ||||
| 28 | +Bas-Saint-Laurent,10,-0.6236297207982265,0.044290579417167415,-0.6842550263855631,0.12497190870280696 | ||||
| 29 | +Capitale-Nationale,2,-0.37801915492672117,0.3642552673266837,-0.28167021009003207,0.5432299363123438 | ||||
| 30 | +Capitale-Nationale,3,-0.49598892885344825,0.42059915301277095,-0.3372152865194855,0.6402042336878325 | ||||
| 31 | +Capitale-Nationale,4,-0.2310305491245607,0.6022422305744681,-0.1691282540726375,0.7222746892820664 | ||||
| 32 | +Capitale-Nationale,5,-0.12389720022426765,0.9912781665196789,-0.07611439661493921,1.1513113179538061 | ||||
| 33 | +Capitale-Nationale,6,-0.2424261955427006,0.6140199377486851,-0.1296925823062829,0.839691897573625 | ||||
| 34 | +Capitale-Nationale,7,-0.17972933826013351,0.8184712014148129,-0.11286634079593294,0.9896650568431582 | ||||
| 35 | +Capitale-Nationale,8,-0.5170154890559323,1.3502867168455208,-0.3871802906144926,1.5031662396394496 | ||||
| 36 | +Capitale-Nationale,9,-0.47978478508876854,1.0845106304955299,-0.4941395414062896,1.1309248138103727 | ||||
| 37 | +Capitale-Nationale,10,-0.3033612329796762,0.9904882200077079,-0.3195975152393069,1.0714238988064846 | ||||
| 38 | +Centre-du-Québec,2,-0.26904432847463067,0.4586321957387457,-0.21898105270820153,0.5224687067378013 | ||||
| 39 | +Centre-du-Québec,3,-0.17475080731166523,0.461255419953515,-0.2364840970698812,0.5882847143678185 | ||||
| 40 | +Centre-du-Québec,4,-0.21871961562656517,0.8641150175197041,-0.17110230903556664,0.7976749633805728 | ||||
| 41 | +Centre-du-Québec,5,-0.41841490256836406,0.2477157598063019,-0.30959047726679767,0.4093670702383827 | ||||
| 42 | +Centre-du-Québec,6,-0.6640409311928147,-0.18258604552296745,-0.4934954282978778,0.1469126508848029 | ||||
| 43 | +Centre-du-Québec,7,-0.3376097051852631,0.23165746342805277,-0.2282730028033805,0.478866787808275 | ||||
| 44 | +Centre-du-Québec,8,-0.6608562907259337,0.37696776394298687,-0.6255323327072964,0.43681161151740794 | ||||
| 45 | +Centre-du-Québec,9,-0.7133013993981459,0.018824202307790062,-0.6369747060228521,0.3640786708400973 | ||||
| 46 | +Centre-du-Québec,10,-0.6443266967330699,0.012854208144321564,-0.5343281954746828,0.32837602618211365 | ||||
| 47 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,2,-0.5674253892397509,0.01012219363468018,-0.5161268697129797,0.18902896469929278 | ||||
| 48 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,3,-0.7545361136635523,-0.10038455114842768,-0.518972190998991,0.11148348956082639 | ||||
| 49 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,4,-0.5519952169773215,0.000172959482570176,-0.4260325847865138,0.16353098130450225 | ||||
| 50 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,5,-0.24339474649472723,0.25869025376784893,-0.40463137887523093,0.27068519704312044 | ||||
| 51 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,6,-0.21119997959203762,0.3229916344448721,-0.2717231410286491,0.38674512562892377 | ||||
| 52 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,7,-0.5347934587217239,0.02519216086740246,-0.6405375207612934,0.15164742751483412 | ||||
| 53 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,8,-0.350480780472459,0.47071393013126517,-0.32510046893058775,0.5242131656304853 | ||||
| 54 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,9,-0.8040028883740074,0.023538836195792712,-0.9119673762815698,0.1374476674735985 | ||||
| 55 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,10,-0.5222200572460612,0.02569215048122903,-0.44517995123077697,0.1605510261732728 | ||||
| 56 | +Côte-Nord,2,-0.31238487100066376,0.8973744346930665,-0.8514701873978195,0.737964007582842 | ||||
| 57 | +Côte-Nord,3,-0.35401480758934545,0.6793476007626502,-0.5768258836518982,0.9530551756284634 | ||||
| 58 | +Côte-Nord,4,-0.038554978800058405,2.92093244555158,-0.20304186700952567,3.0592063538318257 | ||||
| 59 | +Côte-Nord,5,-0.11781152683980523,1.0008051563695188,-0.3148041624785581,0.8560759037544589 | ||||
| 60 | +Côte-Nord,6,-0.18925197900124197,0.7560037251382166,-0.6528874568147858,0.5576843182309399 | ||||
| 61 | +Côte-Nord,7,-0.48731870997151694,0.6063594314121885,-0.5548693282141403,0.7465213002834892 | ||||
| 62 | +Côte-Nord,8,-0.7185674098414904,0.421303270394856,-0.5549735889780781,0.5493836177418392 | ||||
| 63 | +Côte-Nord,9,-0.5648120473949301,0.5128833920212934,-0.7889351370834642,0.5308123508522968 | ||||
| 64 | +Côte-Nord,10,-0.7640948563235912,0.5712124959218307,-1.325937386480382,0.30631288354475944 | ||||
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added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/index_body_filled_week.csv
+73 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +body_filled,week,ld,exits,cuts,entries,stale,exit,mdfreq,arrival,mddepth,disp,z_exit,z_mdfreq,z_mddepth,z_disp,z_arrival,amli_equal,amli_pca,exit_next,amli_supervised | ||||
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| 18 | +Coupe,9,5475.0,79.0,85.0,77.0,0.629406392694064,0.014429223744292237,0.015525114155251141,0.014063926940639269,2.7617248277394975,0.22370919347620993,-1.3432259404400437,-0.2789820580637424,-0.31040549678390467,-0.6574891581579417,-1.5333807788378848,-0.8246966864567036,-0.9926374404457637,0.012382739212007506,-0.6648283622651993 | ||||
| 19 | +Coupe,10,5330.0,66.0,108.0,78.0,0.6424015009380863,0.012382739212007506,0.02026266416510319,0.014634146341463415,2.5495374737214362,0.22547655446482617,-1.7266619328964925,1.181366887585058,-0.6490663472806489,-0.6914467539622521,-1.4201512650987769,-0.6611918823306225,-1.2340146315774017,,-0.7366046540589101 | ||||
| 20 | +Hatchback,2,12519.0,398.0,178.0,361.0,0.0,0.031791676651489735,0.014218388050163752,0.02883616902308491,2.6070539474786445,0.1317167624928927,1.909859659243038,-0.6817801469172101,-0.5572673896550602,1.1100285184844632,1.3999704635333752,0.6361622209377211,1.210554065061667,0.02232917784440587,0.597710023142762 | ||||
| 21 | +Hatchback,3,12674.0,283.0,144.0,365.0,0.0,0.02232917784440587,0.01136184314344327,0.028799116301088844,2.598803349157298,0.1289561787646008,0.13693513234152854,-1.5623096049815446,-0.5704357269367268,1.163069627252338,1.3926128364721753,0.11197445282955405,0.78784112927662,0.026649056017403465,0.6001640870355662 | ||||
| 22 | +Hatchback,4,12871.0,343.0,213.0,346.0,0.10706238831481625,0.026649056017403465,0.01654883070468495,0.02688213814000466,2.777932107339297,0.12854477866214875,0.9463215451990217,0.03657838573104037,-0.2845379274421455,1.170974157499923,1.0119549621270838,0.5762582246229847,0.8070228311062401,0.030748871243966993,0.6761189175483474 | ||||
| 23 | +Hatchback,5,12846.0,395.0,233.0,336.0,0.31620737972909857,0.030748871243966993,0.018137941771757746,0.026156001868285848,2.941349491146538,0.13342694772461947,1.7144762492711894,0.5264215887563674,-0.023716209568221812,1.0771694822018152,0.8677647489631404,0.8324231719248582,0.9485507100231074,0.028426312771360696,0.6976002597538621 | ||||
| 24 | +Hatchback,6,12207.0,347.0,281.0,314.0,0.46334070615220774,0.028426312771360696,0.02301957893012206,0.025722945850741377,2.708443972384493,0.13288592406667307,1.2793141461949935,2.0311853722377715,-0.3954442111466087,1.0875645643697753,0.7817720201687774,0.9568783783649419,0.6379176540019882,0.02758506772381896,0.6123682511944669 | ||||
| 25 | +Hatchback,7,12108.0,334.0,183.0,308.0,0.48265609514370666,0.02758506772381896,0.015113974231912785,0.025437727122563595,3.0321406913280775,0.1325874904635641,1.1216957402825276,-0.4057158661106675,0.12119075349463433,1.0932985868666352,0.7251356134555363,0.5311209655977331,0.8348693221554151,0.024398312794640643,0.708791224732157 | ||||
| 26 | +Hatchback,8,12091.0,295.0,230.0,294.0,0.4858986022661484,0.024398312794640643,0.019022413365313042,0.024315606649574065,2.9630340350477353,0.1321862831497429,0.5246149807124569,0.799059799734351,0.010893327433631878,1.101007275631538,0.5023140901442203,0.5875778947312396,0.4902620326757131,0.029273704873261072,0.6760875318516673 | ||||
| 27 | +Hatchback,9,11717.0,343.0,228.0,286.0,0.5101988563625501,0.029273704873261072,0.01945890586327558,0.02440897840744218,2.73126903631066,0.13161103419598907,1.4380842841882573,0.9336085343878374,-0.359014351329325,1.112059953372105,0.5208550915992598,0.7291187024436269,0.7081968199130005,0.02010450801523337,0.574327718601107 | ||||
| 28 | +Hatchback,10,11291.0,227.0,236.0,302.0,0.5058896466212027,0.02010450801523337,0.020901603046674343,0.026746966610574793,2.9689889739624,0.13034286047038196,-0.279886236390905,1.378319683881892,0.020397685913566766,1.136426300180252,0.9851137032597176,0.6480742273689046,0.36257620410204205,,0.7788922970940347 | ||||
| 29 | +Pickup,2,37452.0,765.0,475.0,823.0,0.0,0.02042614546619673,0.012682900779664637,0.02197479440350315,2.381009071644563,0.1862798700748132,-0.21962319834897392,-1.1550938242118933,-0.918045487174882,0.06166773365994591,0.03749470309060689,-0.4387200145970393,-0.03794232513613939,0.016235306520478627,-0.27043121740621456 | ||||
| 30 | +Pickup,3,37942.0,616.0,554.0,701.0,0.0,0.016235306520478627,0.014601233461599283,0.018475567972168046,2.3984052189984744,0.18526478223837797,-1.004832402242915,-0.563768117118327,-0.8902804298013832,0.08117135667616263,-0.6573531163810754,-0.6070125417735076,-0.5048423269973322,0.023011022305803687,-0.3349752704869392 | ||||
| 31 | +Pickup,4,38286.0,881.0,701.0,869.0,0.09282766546518309,0.023011022305803687,0.018309564853993626,0.02269759180901635,2.4393549261417538,0.186902298955395,0.26468772642789784,0.5793243732485552,-0.8249227994519555,0.04970855357174272,0.1810219114596328,0.04996395305117463,0.004553073185066653,0.0205703233226169,-0.1875658006695477 | ||||
| 32 | +Pickup,5,38259.0,787.0,602.0,779.0,0.36153584777437986,0.0205703233226169,0.01573485977155702,0.02036122219608458,2.5460184623605855,0.18346107993129881,-0.19260956663342302,-0.2143280092431974,-0.6546828524955262,0.11582720473980664,-0.28291529377179137,-0.24574170348082625,-0.16083708244338665,0.022150402017972567,-0.18382677631223923 | ||||
| 33 | +Pickup,6,38058.0,843.0,573.0,823.0,0.5548636291975406,0.022150402017972567,0.015055967207945766,0.021624888328340953,2.3893283808639443,0.18454268054050096,0.10343911253084086,-0.42359652090360866,-0.9047674841156549,0.09504562330536573,-0.03198678892406727,-0.23237321162142482,-0.01759031673762546,0.01850250281730744,-0.2412709978229031 | ||||
| 34 | +Pickup,7,38157.0,706.0,681.0,770.0,0.5635663181067694,0.01850250281730744,0.017847315040490603,0.02017978352595854,2.22246916324036,0.18420194598164571,-0.5800431363315757,0.43683595067323855,-1.1710825282667516,0.10159240491970119,-0.3189439037456876,-0.30632824255021507,-0.39354397767914623,0.01897359399125906,-0.33943613011354024 | ||||
| 35 | +Pickup,8,38211.0,725.0,658.0,669.0,0.5629269058648033,0.01897359399125906,0.017220172201722016,0.01750804742089974,2.230376500630731,0.18613747413328477,-0.4917779630688435,0.24351928246660529,-1.158462051338802,0.06440369074949472,-0.849475449283756,-0.43835849809506033,-0.5138224713399762,0.017698878804057662,-0.4340472030033335 | ||||
| 36 | +Pickup,9,37460.0,663.0,541.0,571.0,0.5914308595835558,0.017698878804057662,0.014442071542979178,0.015242925787506674,2.532286654849329,0.187609165166121,-0.7306127430015328,-0.6128297501482587,-0.6765994536621718,0.036127017470082304,-1.2992648123575805,-0.6566359483398923,-0.5971365499654373,0.0148927449105069,-0.384344022922605 | ||||
| 37 | +Pickup,10,36595.0,545.0,773.0,741.0,0.6103566060937287,0.0148927449105069,0.021123104249214375,0.02024866785079929,2.439083880094637,0.18989727805372048,-1.2563791084272613,1.44659739006264,-0.8253554015043502,-0.007836164410813924,-0.3052654168427661,-0.18964774022451028,-0.6554630067966689,,-0.2659621065904306 | ||||
| 38 | +SUV,2,186133.0,5016.0,2427.0,4865.0,0.0,0.02694847232892609,0.013039063465371535,0.02613722445778019,2.550153009180551,0.14640063562571362,1.0024211583430085,-1.0453067398603013,-0.6480839241618946,0.8278965534259228,0.8640360840707106,0.20019262636348917,0.7504880546966678,0.019805568583976463,0.3367897668196072 | ||||
| 39 | +SUV,3,187624.0,3716.0,2695.0,4302.0,0.0,0.019805568583976463,0.014363834051080885,0.02292883639619665,2.523501447617686,0.14572365401575677,-0.33589649969858315,-0.6369464430731417,-0.6906210515402674,0.8409038948948919,0.22694057386112657,-0.11912390511119479,0.14909456779826288,0.024983452037385157,0.25105644550007217 | ||||
| 40 | +SUV,4,188845.0,4718.0,3350.0,4591.0,0.09084169557044136,0.024983452037385157,0.017739415923111547,0.024310942836717944,2.6319252533228057,0.14512459645992393,0.634248570767728,0.4035760669837234,-0.5175716329068454,0.8524140246734251,0.5013879882593922,0.3748110035554847,0.43956677158615703,0.026744951535814257,0.37294322419429066 | ||||
| 41 | +SUV,5,186839.0,4997.0,3094.0,4583.0,0.3483426907658465,0.026744951535814257,0.016559711837464342,0.024529140061764407,2.564760194921775,0.14438634035868636,0.9642888411613895,0.039932492969761965,-0.6247701787722152,0.866598677637571,0.5447158119979836,0.3581531289988982,0.5683863633827154,0.02508628991246578,0.34516567028979106 | ||||
| 42 | +SUV,6,184842.0,4637.0,3361.0,4563.0,0.5269960290410188,0.02508628991246578,0.018183096915203256,0.024685947998831434,2.5006251562890722,0.1442305099587034,0.653516609236423,0.5403406536705404,-0.7271326726659081,0.8695927607766294,0.5758534520692791,0.3824341606173927,0.43727001746599203,0.02244813818244944,0.3314491060992878 | ||||
| 43 | +SUV,7,184336.0,4138.0,2925.0,4381.0,0.5349850273413767,0.02244813818244944,0.0158677632149987,0.023766383126464716,2.503764010483466,0.14387924129267315,0.15922392786434006,-0.1733605465041154,-0.7221229159064728,0.8763419418757967,0.39325376640590215,0.10666723474709014,0.30491447703004887,0.022064936887909906,0.2943116336269751 | ||||
| 44 | +SUV,8,185226.0,4087.0,3405.0,3751.0,0.5341420750866509,0.022064936887909906,0.018382948398173043,0.02025093669355274,2.452803705523195,0.14412576222708615,0.08742608802514827,0.601944837654741,-0.8034579242969817,0.8716053553481901,-0.30481488857004796,0.09054069363220994,0.0077172431801511105,0.023003344221063586,0.18733442458135915 | ||||
| 45 | +SUV,9,179713.0,4134.0,2841.0,3388.0,0.5563147908053396,0.023003344221063586,0.01580853917078898,0.01885228113714645,2.6333807341865487,0.14419526868202015,0.26324913551942003,-0.1916163475698275,-0.5152486179963763,0.8702698771308693,-0.5825484913052276,-0.031178888844228415,0.07316235947922789,0.01839443669199986,0.21751962492431262 | ||||
| 46 | +SUV,10,173422.0,3190.0,3854.0,4218.0,0.5746964053003656,0.01839443669199986,0.022223247338861274,0.024322173657321446,2.5643327003181193,0.14479388300889875,-0.6002907567531064,1.7857163012483048,-0.6254524799712039,0.8587682634335293,0.503618112934189,0.38447188817834255,-0.036036194882775846,,0.37590376118039054 | ||||
| 47 | +Sedan,2,57344.0,1774.0,742.0,1783.0,0.0,0.030936104910714284,0.012939453125,0.031093052455357144,3.2260145815859085,0.17088615282627717,1.7495569575286605,-1.076011609515457,0.4306224671218319,0.3574384514808152,1.8481239518795969,0.6619460436990895,1.2540253388535505,0.023509842924754783,0.5549176601971971 | ||||
| 48 | +Sedan,3,58316.0,1371.0,716.0,1583.0,0.0,0.023509842924754783,0.012277934014678648,0.02714520886206187,3.2263268269075653,0.17125540567389852,0.35814837861847215,-1.2799247572976136,0.4311208251257068,0.3503437271829038,1.0641933985858956,0.18477631444307296,0.6455362362907635,0.028586626400590263,0.4368414651610014 | ||||
| 49 | +Sedan,4,58279.0,1666.0,858.0,1590.0,0.08382093035227098,0.028586626400590263,0.014722284184697747,0.027282554608006316,2.921870595280657,0.1704723708604168,1.309351028740745,-0.5264542533112434,-0.054805430088476,0.365388746207418,1.091466395619928,0.4369892974336743,0.8140446566822842,0.029130858207042663,0.3173471723509248 | ||||
| 50 | +Sedan,5,58529.0,1705.0,933.0,1749.0,0.2625877769994362,0.029130858207042663,0.015940815664029797,0.029882622289805053,3.0330603579011224,0.1704459104497834,1.4113200685948946,-0.15084214211835192,0.12265858396569197,0.3658971493773943,1.6077666107184203,0.6713600541076099,0.9805965311017109,0.029282023995468667,0.4530379578190301 | ||||
| 51 | +Sedan,6,58261.0,1706.0,996.0,1632.0,0.49182128696726796,0.029282023995468667,0.017095484114587802,0.02801187758534869,3.0443616017020516,0.171576446706829,1.4396429819598324,0.20508420184418413,0.14069589281006342,0.3441753316468072,1.2362893987725392,0.6731775614066853,0.8480226905002671,0.0250195737277077,0.40339596696870766 | ||||
| 52 | +Sedan,7,57475.0,1438.0,878.0,1447.0,0.5122575032622879,0.0250195737277077,0.015276207046541975,0.02517616354936929,3.031221582297666,0.1717827774943088,0.6410164480516896,-0.3557076299335945,0.11972381288745802,0.34021094772730576,0.6731964543146002,0.2836880066094918,0.5005705428374665,0.02430077156241389,0.30295091791777745 | ||||
| 53 | +Sedan,8,58064.0,1411.0,955.0,1371.0,0.5081634058969413,0.02430077156241389,0.01644736842105263,0.023611876550013778,3.0007501875468865,0.17006428421422048,0.5063393384614325,0.005302654896020861,0.07109005471710711,0.37322961260309484,0.3625731117390342,0.2637069544833379,0.34473213492545646,0.027189901403177206,0.2705348640072173 | ||||
| 54 | +Sedan,9,56087.0,1525.0,857.0,1230.0,0.5334391213650223,0.027189901403177206,0.015279833116408436,0.021930215557972435,3.0778588807785887,0.1704528982913448,1.0476560942699218,-0.35458989454392614,0.19415910259409816,0.36576288688047676,0.02864259985596034,0.2563261578113062,0.44305375333670155,0.020924439523941324,0.24914373304454343 | ||||
| 55 | +Sedan,10,54195.0,1134.0,1002.0,1518.0,0.5521173539994464,0.020924439523941324,0.01848879047882646,0.028009964018820926,2.967950448912494,0.1706696090676974,-0.12626120437722269,0.6345706401404269,0.018740151805132416,0.3615990646634991,1.2359094183524884,0.42491161411686484,0.35757044200555427,,0.38525573994532736 | ||||
| 56 | +Van,2,10644.0,245.0,148.0,242.0,0.0,0.023017662532882375,0.013904547162720781,0.022735813603908306,3.5949275456544,0.16727089527669514,0.2659318609521937,-0.7785215445015575,1.0194246544570666,0.4269010317844053,0.18861168347299642,0.2244695372330209,0.403585271993154,0.017381758302076663,0.5469374882530929 | ||||
| 57 | +Van,3,10931.0,190.0,123.0,239.0,0.0,0.017381758302076663,0.011252401427133839,0.021864422285243802,2.7028488026379804,0.166224860754501,-0.7900294708033405,-1.5960449945162425,-0.40437436136124527,0.44699925604691715,0.015577908848252813,-0.46557433235713175,-0.024843540231456386,0.02210592799783452,0.07791080710283974 | ||||
| 58 | +Van,4,11083.0,245.0,200.0,259.0,0.07759631868627628,0.02210592799783452,0.018045655508436342,0.023369123883425064,2.702958392398866,0.16638973375801702,0.09510631558997085,0.49797436454574895,-0.4041994510241095,0.44383143077041637,0.31436926887261335,0.18941638575092803,0.13927050659894896,0.0206927575348628,0.16709301454709993 | ||||
| 59 | +Van,5,11115.0,230.0,176.0,218.0,0.28753936122357177,0.0206927575348628,0.0158344579397211,0.019613135402609085,2.9269434073235665,0.16615465211218539,-0.1696698947509687,-0.18362689166881907,-0.04670898697662287,0.44834822590258283,-0.4314642623573089,-0.07662436197022734,-0.05725273363764527,0.01943364797334814,0.15873147204493415 | ||||
| 60 | +Van,6,10806.0,210.0,196.0,175.0,0.5918008513788636,0.01943364797334814,0.0181380714417916,0.016194706644456783,2.9434278266021416,0.16921763140716053,-0.40558075394118415,0.5264615595211773,-0.020399089863941993,0.3894969705418013,-1.110267939464636,-0.12405785064135669,-0.3916142621603186,0.015682999257609503,0.05722109864071393 | ||||
| 61 | +Van,7,10776.0,169.0,163.0,197.0,0.6162769116555308,0.015682999257609503,0.015126206384558277,0.01828136599851522,2.857346953353811,0.16903679967778706,-1.1083144858542182,-0.4019453072391595,-0.1577881528488201,0.3929714224586486,-0.6959161589785441,-0.39419853649241865,-0.4079892274223682,0.017218065446678085,0.05321530132275235 | ||||
| 62 | +Van,8,11093.0,191.0,180.0,227.0,0.6096637519156225,0.017218065446678085,0.016226449112052645,0.020463355269088615,2.7403904549886384,0.17033715694152382,-0.8206994961456338,-0.06279568270478163,-0.34445614440169575,0.367986709857436,-0.2626345418783741,-0.22451983105460985,-0.254070856026762,0.01795866799025359,0.05132662974501387 | ||||
| 63 | +Van,9,11081.0,199.0,180.0,185.0,0.6317119393556538,0.01795866799025359,0.016244021297716814,0.01669524411154228,3.0692595833292247,0.16917530483020826,-0.6819377968355439,-0.0573790596076009,0.1804342253442116,0.39031022193819587,-1.0108752952922675,-0.235889540890601,-0.37158564362052027,0.014547463401160114,0.11944688274032211 | ||||
| 64 | +Van,10,10861.0,158.0,209.0,207.0,0.638339011140779,0.014547463401160114,0.019243163612926988,0.01905901850658319,3.033980582524272,0.17136195321439002,-1.3210721740843172,0.8671060241930569,0.12412730511057879,0.34829655157064454,-0.5414962721432851,-0.10460771307066441,-0.5100000859928997,,0.16722754437245238 | ||||
| 65 | +Wagon,2,1811.0,38.0,34.0,66.0,0.0,0.020982882385422418,0.018774157923799006,0.036443953616786304,3.7750713319166955,0.17516397031343012,-0.11531115992759276,0.7225351041611802,1.3069424858076557,0.275245623819113,2.9106622234623662,1.0200148554645445,0.9550014518396267,0.02598808879263671,0.9706634961259869 | ||||
| 66 | +Wagon,3,1847.0,48.0,19.0,49.0,0.0,0.02598808879263671,0.01028695181375203,0.026529507309149974,5.002501250625312,0.16612583044094836,0.8224805780128772,-1.893644665664241,3.2659775193451743,0.44890199769486266,0.9419324103700147,0.7171295679517375,1.115522409187329,0.03114571746384872,1.3264063376669646 | ||||
| 67 | +Wagon,4,1798.0,56.0,25.0,45.0,0.13793103448275862,0.03114571746384872,0.013904338153503892,0.02502780867630701,5.0006250781347665,0.1860373527190454,1.788830646664587,-0.778585971555389,3.2629830611020467,0.06632739651079395,0.6437373546884025,0.9966584974820885,1.120757707538934,0.027313266443701228,1.1070093300613757 | ||||
| 68 | +Wagon,5,1794.0,49.0,19.0,49.0,0.33166109253065773,0.027313266443701228,0.010590858416945374,0.027313266443701228,5.672149744753262,0.18825539056681873,1.07077016916349,-1.7999655094281746,4.334767549762971,0.02371061748348242,1.0975649012420519,0.9453695456447642,1.2358269800649972,0.03305322128851541,1.4524802408796729 | ||||
| 69 | +Wagon,6,1785.0,59.0,36.0,56.0,0.5484593837535015,0.03305322128851541,0.020168067226890758,0.03137254901960784,3.5902010926289973,0.18981894055973847,2.1462267620942934,1.152207398251362,1.0118810163886096,-0.006331008998819501,1.9036240979919838,1.2415216531454858,1.1733003435686062,0.02962085308056872,0.6000825986735665 | ||||
| 70 | +Wagon,7,1688.0,50.0,15.0,38.0,0.5983412322274881,0.02962085308056872,0.008886255924170616,0.022511848341232227,3.125976867771178,0.1820677759765295,1.5031271004414932,-2.325408923829551,0.2709576397855018,0.14259776991203393,0.14413848990818348,-0.052917584756467705,0.7253483427816964,0.01837109614206981,0.12440171425432274 | ||||
| 71 | +Wagon,8,1633.0,30.0,24.0,24.0,0.6203306797305572,0.01837109614206981,0.014696876913655848,0.014696876913655848,3.256473335007578,0.1801116144151622,-0.6046639180380912,-0.5342860400788112,0.4792360491450808,0.18018292883355574,-1.4076947401617805,-0.3774451440600093,-0.44332078401253067,0.016219588271990017,0.03292089265777088 | ||||
| 72 | +Wagon,9,1603.0,26.0,15.0,28.0,0.6406737367436057,0.016219588271990017,0.009357454772301934,0.017467248908296942,2.0834201425059375,0.17212349856865589,-1.0077774243595388,-2.1801619629260207,-1.393011209363603,0.33366442520066164,-0.8575768848655987,-1.0209726112628197,-0.4228589511047026,0.0189873417721519,-0.42100912605708507 | ||||
| 73 | +Wagon,10,1580.0,30.0,25.0,29.0,0.6316455696202532,0.0189873417721519,0.015822784810126583,0.018354430379746836,4.167013917826486,0.17696944037234646,-0.4892021341644178,-0.18722513178455885,1.9325010168726338,0.24055581065000597,-0.6814076306006116,0.1630443861946103,-0.06089577899336372,,0.6200528613646569 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/index_province_week.csv
+10 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +market,week,ld,exits,cuts,entries,stale,exit,mdfreq,arrival,mddepth,disp,z_exit,z_mdfreq,z_mddepth,z_disp,z_arrival,amli_equal,amli_pca,exit_next,amli_supervised | ||||
| 2 | +Quebec,2,320250.0,8605.0,4275.0,8454.0,0.0,0.026869633099141296,0.013348946135831381,0.026398126463700235,2.679088373072267,0.1572800715430433,1.2491837138666295,-1.3791172055457157,0.7393416738080363,-2.2840143028365336,1.32750704655098,-0.06941981483132072,1.3997151164879655,0.01998474352758055,-1.5385253178530185 | ||||
| 3 | +Quebec,3,323797.0,6471.0,4484.0,7542.0,0.0,0.01998474352758055,0.013848182657652789,0.023292371454954802,2.632271650434325,0.1562913594887413,-1.1062596342328173,-1.1669376866359207,-0.17841577632679595,-0.769009469117128,-0.054262430783467014,-0.6549769994192258,0.12165797867079571,0.025271711591082886,-0.3395682172300569 | ||||
| 4 | +Quebec,4,325621.0,8229.0,5649.0,7984.0,0.08878420003623845,0.025271711591082886,0.017348389692311,0.024519303116199508,2.67022696929239,0.15556897979648654,0.7025063056350848,0.3206783274908188,0.5656298272841155,0.3378939217991366,0.4916070004850383,0.4836630765388388,0.21564623180650624,0.02615837154404222,0.09726795918580959 | ||||
| 5 | +Quebec,5,323644.0,8466.0,5334.0,8001.0,0.3308419127189134,0.02615837154404222,0.016481071794935177,0.024721607692402763,2.678619261058233,0.15521567282504406,1.0058484677012793,-0.0479387230720188,0.7301455784479047,0.8792666775910071,0.5816135488881136,0.6297871099112572,0.2947606413468745,0.025278582850289825,0.48509961190771844 | ||||
| 6 | +Quebec,6,320192.0,8094.0,5720.0,7860.0,0.5271587047771337,0.025278582850289825,0.017864281431141316,0.024547771337197682,2.6194631225264584,0.15550142350502857,0.7048570857926789,0.539936446979345,-0.4295038758422786,0.441410519641395,0.5042726868442401,0.3521945726830761,-0.04065091309979616,0.022268495143956523,0.10791044051520438 | ||||
| 7 | +Quebec,7,318881.0,7101.0,5067.0,7438.0,0.5389784904086478,0.022268495143956523,0.015889940134407508,0.023325315713385242,2.627975563513798,0.15542561929452992,-0.3249475307353151,-0.2991744116901241,-0.2626328157857895,0.5575654151158176,-0.039605327881139664,-0.07375893419531017,-0.17587244392563836,0.02190472628442483,0.4032073799166777 | ||||
| 8 | +Quebec,8,320844.0,7028.0,5678.0,6635.0,0.5372610988517784,0.02190472628442483,0.017697073967410954,0.02067983194324968,2.5293725309117026,0.15538276101416693,-0.4493993366101638,0.4688719361478901,-2.1955675168389814,0.623237216761514,-1.2165973044097698,-0.5538910009899022,-0.975585240038213,0.022987732184747915,0.5209556064048424 | ||||
| 9 | +Quebec,9,312036.0,7173.0,4882.0,5940.0,0.5605923675473343,0.022987732184747915,0.015645630632362933,0.019036265046340806,2.7030679821597516,0.15543246156061966,-0.07888372886452168,-0.40300790612235476,1.209418681580559,0.547081001423836,-1.9478303107837505,-0.13464445255324636,-0.1841887666585369,0.018240766191660512,0.8134317952602429 | ||||
| 10 | +Quebec,10,301961.0,5508.0,6408.0,7310.0,0.5777931587191724,0.018240766191660512,0.021221283543239027,0.024208424266709938,2.632271650434325,0.1560070952456019,-1.7029053425528475,1.9666892224480943,-0.17841577632679595,-0.33343098037929986,0.3532950910897579,0.021046442855781767,-0.6554826045899121,,-0.5497792581075893 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/index_region_week.csv
+154 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +region,week,ld,exits,cuts,entries,stale,exit,mdfreq,arrival,mddepth,disp,z_exit,z_mdfreq,z_mddepth,z_disp,z_arrival,amli_equal,amli_pca,exit_next,amli_supervised | ||||
| 2 | +(missing),2,746.0,2.0,2.0,5.0,0.0,0.002680965147453083,0.002680965147453083,0.006702412868632708,12.158080827608725,0.37907720463186767,-2.766524140628517,-1.6030598385938295,2.323463873826365,-4.436964246189289,-2.046844256737203,-1.705985721664495,-2.729717603678916,0.018387553041018388,-0.8575858914772412 | ||||
| 3 | +(missing),3,707.0,13.0,2.0,5.0,0.0,0.018387553041018388,0.002828854314002829,0.007072135785007072,15.660123059491706,0.32553509990205287,-0.45837569785442545,-1.5817144263050473,3.296729500127968,-3.326651815994245,-1.9949393644715205,-0.8129903608994541,-2.252950399119264,0.010014306151645207,-1.5260489075616186 | ||||
| 4 | +(missing),4,699.0,7.0,1.0,11.0,0.0,0.010014306151645207,0.001430615164520744,0.015736766809728183,12.507817385866165,0.3109663727678235,-1.6888591675701807,-1.7835276613128446,2.4206604659502626,-3.0245374536455567,-0.7785237192896577,-0.9709575071735955,-2.0020113819782837,0.00423728813559322,-0.9702523870976217 | ||||
| 5 | +(missing),5,708.0,3.0,1.0,2.0,0.1271186440677966,0.00423728813559322,0.0014124293785310734,0.002824858757062147,13.337779259753251,0.326041963260562,-2.537816001988116,-1.7861524857594313,2.6513182677440583,-3.3371627342744095,-2.5912087510701296,-1.5202043410696058,-2.6424519119973264,0.019662921348314606,-1.354384294932544 | ||||
| 6 | +(missing),6,712.0,14.0,3.0,6.0,0.7949438202247191,0.019662921348314606,0.004213483146067416,0.008426966292134831,30.03003003003003,0.3417550010575242,-0.2709550185574795,-1.3818656207645026,7.29032397487446,-3.663006876377712,-1.804736570984082,0.03395197763813682,-3.139693683977291,0.017830609212481426,-3.307825733819839 | ||||
| 7 | +(missing),7,673.0,12.0,2.0,9.0,0.7860326894502229,0.017830609212481426,0.0029717682020802376,0.01337295690936107,15.96491170147378,0.3675379101435875,-0.5402209107842737,-1.5610871150964267,3.381434449093931,-4.197671783357057,-1.1103757435522705,-0.8055842207392194,-2.3123867386241375,0.003125,-1.231604168959422 | ||||
| 8 | +(missing),8,640.0,2.0,4.0,4.0,0.7484375,0.003125,0.00625,0.00625,9.73187704622224,0.350792042612528,-2.70127137151095,-1.0879273094303712,1.6491885263366837,-3.850409661930191,-2.1103578777923073,-1.620155538865427,-2.359005306357383,0.0029985007496251873,-0.586707817964847 | ||||
| 9 | +(missing),9,667.0,2.0,3.0,9.0,0.7451274362818591,0.0029985007496251873,0.004497751124437781,0.013493253373313344,17.657445556209534,0.3522524653196879,-2.7198609626903516,-1.3408361299615168,3.8518128492082977,-3.880694715035244,-1.0934874882539078,-1.0366132893465445,-2.7115671974099924,0.010014306151645207,-1.4834962254487025 | ||||
| 10 | +(missing),10,699.0,7.0,7.0,10.0,0.7238912732474965,0.010014306151645207,0.010014306151645207,0.01430615164520744,22.234574763757642,0.3993745071815271,-1.6888591675701807,-0.5446105225240236,5.123859909146929,-4.857873125921227,-0.9793658167075878,-0.5893697447152181,-2.8913358310012764,,-1.7674202702722688 | ||||
| 11 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,2,10073.0,261.0,61.0,214.0,0.0,0.02591085078923856,0.006055792713193686,0.021244912141368012,2.9832356345443003,0.15548251871200433,0.6472042091089635,-1.1159579941862563,-0.22635159434600013,0.19975969948216354,-0.005242763848420283,-0.10011768875790994,0.042031365485469215,0.018694421988682295,-0.09127626684634807 | ||||
| 12 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,3,9896.0,185.0,67.0,165.0,0.0,0.018694421988682295,0.006770412287793048,0.01667340339531124,3.8465237042023275,0.15873573258954599,-0.41328002917794926,-1.012814202079439,0.013568014888025988,0.1322972075882628,-0.6470305958892159,-0.3854519209340631,-0.33511872537232923,0.022222222222222223,-0.2964749895674227 | ||||
| 13 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,4,9765.0,217.0,83.0,208.0,0.10701484895033282,0.022222222222222223,0.008499743983614952,0.021300563236047107,4.167534903104814,0.15969342858429167,0.10514489357686298,-0.7632131062550156,0.10278143519040471,0.11243729037581858,0.0025700168742680044,-0.08805589404753227,-0.09694219094891232,0.019979188345473464,-0.179839082196727 | ||||
| 14 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,5,9610.0,192.0,67.0,181.0,0.4559833506763788,0.019979188345473464,0.006971904266389178,0.018834547346514047,3.6874451273046533,0.16118611755438042,-0.22447826740440951,-0.9837320897357325,-0.03064210609964573,0.08148312586794322,-0.34363056578604606,-0.30019998063157816,-0.23750878378107482,0.023098532931016543,-0.20538474879228438 | ||||
| 15 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,6,9611.0,222.0,63.0,195.0,0.6052439912600146,0.023098532931016543,0.0065549890750182084,0.020289251898865882,4.763038818766373,0.15931043032189757,0.23392239837906859,-1.0439070630410041,0.26828015081547957,0.12037959547617218,-0.13940659230703614,-0.11214630213546399,-0.1810442905688519,0.018477690288713912,-0.32693301560786453 | ||||
| 16 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,7,9525.0,176.0,79.0,170.0,0.6127034120734908,0.018477690288713912,0.008293963254593176,0.01784776902887139,3.593246552390772,0.16085480130576096,-0.4451296542634045,-0.7929142304450587,-0.05682118360351196,0.08835369158485143,-0.4821630180603655,-0.3377348789574978,-0.2681867005811967,0.014966859097712209,-0.19239003625524706 | ||||
| 17 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,8,9354.0,140.0,88.0,129.0,0.611075475732307,0.014966859097712209,0.009407740004276246,0.013790891597177678,4.65447978048459,0.16180839416277545,-0.9610609056126012,-0.6321585478329194,0.23811010334371926,0.0685788618908889,-1.0517024669321984,-0.46764659102862216,-0.522756196297735,0.018739168110918546,-0.41159480622243566 | ||||
| 18 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,9,9232.0,173.0,72.0,150.0,0.6290077989601387,0.018739168110918546,0.00779896013864818,0.01624783362218371,4.0377393687938685,0.1593118298253477,-0.40670440033611194,-0.8643599342824902,0.06670947385247115,0.12035057371685548,-0.7067757516462071,-0.3581560077390965,-0.33733829926721154,0.0166189111747851,-0.30932828341919233 | ||||
| 19 | +Abitibi-Témiscamingue,10,8725.0,145.0,81.0,110.0,0.6514613180515759,0.0166189111747851,0.009283667621776504,0.012607449856733524,3.3338889814969157,0.16045604561809573,-0.718284979044891,-0.6500663920644818,-0.1289002140543663,0.09662276129848818,-1.2178442269367864,-0.5236946101604074,-0.4230669623006836,,-0.2746247550414798 | ||||
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| 64 | +Côte-Nord,10,5242.0,124.0,49.0,82.0,0.5650515070583747,0.023655093475772607,0.009347577260587561,0.01564288439526898,4.255500234052513,0.13340327842184857,0.3157112861625506,-0.640842068055662,0.12722820860113176,0.6576209484399791,-0.791703742470079,-0.06639707346441591,-0.07420266142241727,,-0.4261634553787636 | ||||
| 65 | +Estrie,2,13913.0,315.0,114.0,377.0,0.0,0.022640695752174225,0.008193775605548768,0.027096959677998994,3.336113427856547,0.14621690063003137,0.16664131998381035,-0.8073746992203517,-0.12828200986491625,0.391902518330408,0.8163181496626118,0.08784105577831247,0.18580010981012163,0.02214855046906962,0.02012683103107213 | ||||
| 66 | +Estrie,3,14177.0,314.0,196.0,343.0,0.0,0.02214855046906962,0.013825209846935176,0.024194117232136558,3.7804546347357917,0.1471949356292518,0.09431852291839019,0.005431867101894211,-0.004793486777514377,0.3716208274577753,0.40879208691734836,0.17507396352357874,0.1864845827355333,0.018521078092605392,0.0063023385009008765 | ||||
| 67 | +Estrie,4,14470.0,268.0,124.0,309.0,0.14485141672425708,0.018521078092605392,0.00856945404284727,0.021354526606772634,3.2825443543740325,0.1448218812254458,-0.4387536359540087,-0.7531515852544985,-0.14316959099649024,0.4208312911735898,0.010145860349887112,-0.18081953213630414,-0.0666067697059886,0.017589846175070704,-0.11916458412417803 | ||||
| 68 | +Estrie,5,14497.0,255.0,95.0,267.0,0.38539008070635306,0.017589846175070704,0.00655307994757536,0.018417603642132855,3.823921742996887,0.14506558759415233,-0.5756020408962305,-1.0441826147486115,0.007286619498790554,0.4157775075792012,-0.40216471960313693,-0.31977704963399745,-0.2543905905466161,0.028375873378012263,-0.30783996387787554 | ||||
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| 72 | +Estrie,9,12433.0,187.0,135.0,160.0,0.6683825303627443,0.015040617710930588,0.010858199951741334,0.012868977720582321,2.779553603691247,0.15731814699992067,-0.9502217705060563,-0.42280808417611593,-0.2829576276827229,0.1616939395428418,-1.1811286894454587,-0.5350844464535024,-0.3728151140790289,0.00857843137254902,-0.1742239298080225 | ||||
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| 74 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,2,2585.0,61.0,29.0,62.0,0.0,0.023597678916827854,0.011218568665377175,0.023984526112185687,4.8792388387411565,0.15582749990887804,0.30727397783569327,-0.3707946815179325,0.3005737320257234,0.19260576123103712,0.3793678775457054,0.16180533342404532,0.049752155105711085,0.014584154513204573,-0.16437797110289679 | ||||
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| 77 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,5,2458.0,45.0,7.0,31.0,0.4890154597233523,0.018307567127746133,0.0028478437754271765,0.012611879576891782,6.263322884012538,0.1609397535200385,-0.47012996061437545,-1.5789736042915008,0.6852296944556246,0.08659202196127345,-1.2172223446097825,-0.4989008386197522,-0.7108329907999655,0.01552013422818792,-0.7951358831348843 | ||||
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| 79 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,7,2249.0,28.0,17.0,19.0,0.6545131169408626,0.012449977767896843,0.00755891507336594,0.008448199199644287,3.7043897017966287,0.1560504903145834,-1.3309270892437703,-0.8990065619285627,-0.025932976165344682,0.18798156835482707,-1.8017557122708243,-0.7739281542507349,-0.6928725002848141,0.02427637721755369,-0.4848809879543683 | ||||
| 80 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,8,2142.0,52.0,19.0,21.0,0.6956115779645191,0.02427637721755369,0.008870214752567693,0.00980392156862745,8.33368057002375,0.15798309372484307,0.40701151704849325,-0.709741635093682,1.2606105255601678,0.14790481754578097,-1.6114277115228388,-0.10112849729241576,-0.6071917068986958,0.014335145823035097,-1.030460668530134 | ||||
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| 82 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,10,1994.0,17.0,3.0,39.0,0.7407221664994985,0.008525576730190571,0.0015045135406218655,0.019558676028084254,3.1254883575558683,0.15331415562968928,-1.9076341503435077,-1.7728616244275848,-0.18681760920598645,0.24472544178197633,-0.24197113506432444,-0.7729118154518855,-0.5789431205189361,,-0.25663584294130426 | ||||
| 83 | +Lanaudière,2,15352.0,338.0,199.0,347.0,0.0,0.0220166753517457,0.012962480458572173,0.022602918186555496,2.34796900680911,0.16642000412363642,0.07493892572296407,-0.11908918415484329,-0.40290091367809683,-0.027052938326780986,0.18540583906433597,-0.0577396542744842,0.11748991376096274,0.01692658805629517,0.21512513151744364 | ||||
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| 89 | +Lanaudière,8,18491.0,375.0,432.0,361.0,0.4631983126926613,0.020280136282515817,0.023362716997458222,0.019523011194635228,2.435863397197481,0.1553597700689095,-0.18025271587485292,1.3820169617690024,-0.37847385562296315,0.20230516057125436,-0.246978072032145,0.1557234957620591,0.2679868316471033,0.02262318600673178,0.29426903337883564 | ||||
| 90 | +Lanaudière,9,18123.0,410.0,344.0,340.0,0.4742592286045357,0.02262318600673178,0.018981404844672516,0.01876069083485074,3.4111623938253883,0.1556797920814642,0.16406819003666823,0.7496453253002525,-0.10742487164940187,0.19566880549577545,-0.3539991799866368,0.1295916538393315,0.14806341673324372,0.011318495946019481,0.05557185262610799 | ||||
| 91 | +Lanaudière,10,18377.0,208.0,478.0,453.0,0.509386733416771,0.011318495946019481,0.026010774337487077,0.024650378190128965,2.5213867627194957,0.1556754211378549,-1.497203050826958,1.7642212638551762,-0.3547057379371152,0.19575944655379107,0.47284593595075175,0.11618357151912914,0.219192364073398,,0.4715688521604399 | ||||
| 92 | +Laurentides,2,32513.0,836.0,597.0,735.0,0.0,0.02571279180635438,0.01836188601482484,0.022606342078553193,2.19115980355119,0.15334748723251784,0.6180986174922878,0.6602277895045231,-0.4464803445682308,0.24403423823057263,0.18588651455779076,0.2523533630433887,0.4132358547877792,0.015062332095746929,0.29509379144741926 | ||||
| 93 | +Laurentides,3,33129.0,499.0,781.0,712.0,0.0,0.015062332095746929,0.023574511757070843,0.021491744393129886,2.5006251562890722,0.1507722829639434,-0.9470307513082986,1.4125861141282066,-0.36047567346261244,0.2974367207089529,0.02940967685239725,0.08638521738372913,0.20341662356450754,0.02514442079659471,0.32251344032640034 | ||||
| 94 | +Laurentides,4,32890.0,827.0,718.0,685.0,0.05782912739434479,0.02514442079659471,0.021830343569474005,0.020826999087868652,2.0374176060496842,0.1495307367075279,0.5345741327356605,1.1608436103748354,-0.4892074124425189,0.32318289277515194,-0.06391300325641734,0.2930960440373423,0.4551273463670629,0.025872702602689035,0.3258516064700287 | ||||
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| 96 | +Laurentides,6,32435.0,815.0,731.0,900.0,0.5043934021889934,0.02512717743178665,0.022537382457222137,0.027747803298905502,2.0002400288034563,0.15003042543593045,0.5320401485310949,1.2628932527880221,-0.4995395716819211,0.3128207561132965,0.9076891914044584,0.5031807554309902,0.6622292114086548,0.021700209902457093,0.5264779161996032 | ||||
| 97 | +Laurentides,7,32396.0,703.0,737.0,692.0,0.5153414001728609,0.021700209902457093,0.022749722187924436,0.02136066181010001,2.1279312252627998,0.15149335834403316,0.028433011203709647,1.293541062920923,-0.4640524347297255,0.2824836485116351,0.011007173115831806,0.23028249220447483,0.3818207932952689,0.019691421024194033,0.35452739276046363 | ||||
| 98 | +Laurentides,8,33314.0,656.0,707.0,785.0,0.49717836345080146,0.019691421024194033,0.02122230893918473,0.023563666926817554,2.016535591853196,0.15020728349394663,-0.2667668726058299,1.073083633277283,-0.4950108109396457,0.3091532181786854,0.32028403473235617,0.1881486405285698,0.3669217934262387,0.018691588785046728,0.3895827995756116 | ||||
| 99 | +Laurentides,9,32635.0,610.0,610.0,503.0,0.5275930749195649,0.018691588785046728,0.018691588785046728,0.015412900260456565,2.102962613762656,0.14998659238222678,-0.41369638024056143,0.7078150585880398,-0.4709915547347126,0.31372973017448047,-0.823990899180072,-0.13742680907856514,0.05238719594146228,0.01150100479208533,0.11400589443854786 | ||||
| 100 | +Laurentides,10,32345.0,372.0,1020.0,678.0,0.5511516463131859,0.01150100479208533,0.031535013139588806,0.02096150873396197,2.273502359718159,0.15044156030014622,-1.4703826165165903,2.561555900080102,-0.42359621748103987,0.30429497714870685,-0.04502937884483367,0.18536853287726895,0.2879371483381027,,0.502240851871326 | ||||
| 101 | +Laval,2,22504.0,729.0,500.0,719.0,0.0,0.032394241023817986,0.022218272307145397,0.03194987557767508,2.500093753906426,0.13107651938288234,1.5999653801060065,1.216834857316357,-0.36062335748197005,0.705871376697692,1.4976123453733645,0.9319321204022899,1.0287069584961472,0.0204278873610684,0.48586998446193086 | ||||
| 102 | +Laval,3,22763.0,465.0,432.0,544.0,0.0,0.0204278873610684,0.018978166322540967,0.02389843166542196,2.3742481707083476,0.1326576035140625,-0.158540080120333,0.7491778969434837,-0.3955975731648895,0.673084145547701,0.36728119645012497,0.24708111713121744,0.40742994233448154,0.027031778822908883,0.23367156910277384 | ||||
| 103 | +Laval,4,22751.0,615.0,644.0,555.0,0.09546833106237089,0.027031778822908883,0.02830644806821678,0.024394532108478747,2.5442313509148775,0.13063872747979755,0.8119292476030299,2.0955646841081332,-0.34835691317562,0.7149499475586375,0.43692805605605434,0.742203004430047,0.8106823436644077,0.025277084154729047,0.40863578031539516 | ||||
| 104 | +Laval,5,22827.0,577.0,648.0,663.0,0.31112279318351077,0.025277084154729047,0.028387435931134183,0.02904455250361414,2.3941316956670082,0.12882481554981828,0.5540695651978821,2.1072539738964955,-0.39007166853821423,0.7525653714068069,1.0897380306434608,0.8227110545212861,0.9118287268840394,0.026588613817141837,0.5432752074850686 | ||||
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| 106 | +Laval,7,22140.0,422.0,428.0,470.0,0.5138211382113821,0.01906052393857272,0.019331526648599818,0.02122854561878952,2.5013240261064933,0.1302022375707265,-0.3594798243682001,0.8001797520637335,-0.36028144794346734,0.7240015187313042,-0.007540437467169639,0.15937591220324016,0.3080912395691617,0.018161229911589215,0.14512551047802225 | ||||
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| 110 | +Mauricie,2,17070.0,445.0,82.0,438.0,0.0,0.02606912712360867,0.004803749267721149,0.025659050966608084,3.4511930869370486,0.13796391842880998,0.6704635749992488,-1.2966702408678878,-0.09629979233199484,0.5630461214897353,0.6144521212202187,0.09099835690186404,0.1950616032436828,0.02257388875959972,-0.1356690016444705 | ||||
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| 113 | +Mauricie,5,17150.0,411.0,191.0,416.0,0.33527696793002915,0.023965014577259476,0.011137026239067056,0.024256559766763847,2.7789099262662567,0.14120904437134496,0.36125548154268217,-0.38256401357398717,-0.2831365144781094,0.4957513505850977,0.41755830856357135,0.12177292252785095,0.26925662357999586,0.027452153110047846,0.06142913186559429 | ||||
| 114 | +Mauricie,6,16720.0,459.0,147.0,394.0,0.5000598086124401,0.027452153110047846,0.008791866028708134,0.023564593301435406,3.031221582297666,0.14371719371004077,0.8737049981872529,-0.7210500077899316,-0.2130156405220669,0.44373939846643723,0.3204140871922059,0.14075856710677953,0.26377366898356003,0.023544520547945206,-0.028414867814024747 | ||||
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| 116 | +Mauricie,8,16385.0,359.0,109.0,345.0,0.5107110161733293,0.02191028379615502,0.006652425999389686,0.02105584375953616,3.3338889814969157,0.14555150525348015,0.05930424395598716,-1.0298436169388823,-0.1289002140543663,0.405700944098451,-0.03178581421182395,-0.14510489143012686,-0.032845189334726854,0.02470610423084177,-0.17041644389554364 | ||||
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| 119 | +Montréal,2,26491.0,887.0,538.0,874.0,0.0,0.033483069721792304,0.020308784115359933,0.03299233702012004,2.630657632013027,0.16830660597700406,1.7599732876609482,0.9412310814271233,-0.3243378628523229,-0.06617574642693887,1.6439620750353636,0.7909305669688347,0.8560918606921748,0.024935064935064935,0.6058014226845092 | ||||
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| 123 | +Montréal,6,27678.0,744.0,557.0,865.0,0.5292651203121613,0.026880554953392585,0.020124286436881276,0.031252258111135196,2.514754939697203,0.17066381542713338,0.7897062707668379,0.9146018217908172,-0.35654881262323695,-0.11505763043689649,1.399674787705863,0.5264752874406768,0.6201698627115446,0.02382442960489705,0.5818634144795144 | ||||
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| 138 | +Outaouais,3,12177.0,206.0,112.0,251.0,0.0,0.01691713886835838,0.0091976677342531,0.02061263036872793,1.9617074701820465,0.14989731382020208,-0.6744591786114765,-0.6624790866438272,-0.5102482988520972,0.31558111606351463,-0.09400793321435681,-0.32512267625164865,-0.0572173798527951,0.020268087855297157,0.070677474420587 | ||||
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| 140 | +Outaouais,5,12563.0,286.0,209.0,260.0,0.31736050306455466,0.022765263074106503,0.016636153784923984,0.020695693703733184,2.2728305832083278,0.1405200705789101,0.18494700624023266,0.41114621844243815,-0.4237829133979603,0.5100387262809033,-0.08234678573408942,0.12000045036630488,0.29784777075799357,0.021777849740932644,0.14751173292611647 | ||||
| 141 | +Outaouais,6,12352.0,269.0,223.0,288.0,0.529630829015544,0.021777849740932644,0.01805375647668394,0.023316062176165803,2.500125006250313,0.14251328527049767,0.03984250851075939,0.6157542679923361,-0.3606146720264465,0.46870506823206887,0.2855231439737288,0.2098420633364894,0.3515711001084659,0.024693417869358473,0.2224109251738672 | ||||
| 142 | +Outaouais,7,11987.0,296.0,140.0,239.0,0.5462584466505381,0.024693417869358473,0.011679319262534413,0.019938266455326602,2.395127242544655,0.14132094040164725,0.4682973760498019,-0.3042927754752367,-0.38979499239006155,0.49343094211477234,-0.18868095650490657,0.01579191875887388,0.20557752261909681,0.020176113533384627,0.012398237974135518 | ||||
| 143 | +Outaouais,8,11697.0,236.0,144.0,159.0,0.5568949303240147,0.020176113533384627,0.01231084893562452,0.013593229033085406,2.2184687906443457,0.14100437809233926,-0.19553929167650114,-0.2131416684725902,-0.43889080204789643,0.49999555269049717,-1.0794520427355536,-0.2854056504484089,-0.06593432517635237,0.020415440848711778,-0.11648820189321654 | ||||
| 144 | +Outaouais,9,11217.0,229.0,177.0,180.0,0.5898190246946599,0.020415440848711778,0.015779620219309978,0.016047071409467772,2.00160128102482,0.14175680067574387,-0.16036914689846335,0.28751943411634195,-0.4991612609968819,0.48439242779786673,-0.7349604828612166,-0.12451580576847063,0.0971046688203781,0.03221125943122461,0.0505750511383051 | ||||
| 145 | +Outaouais,10,10338.0,333.0,213.0,270.0,0.6008899206809828,0.03221125943122461,0.02060359837492745,0.0261172373766686,2.564431337350942,0.14594426975203978,1.5730754737264196,0.983782757563346,-0.34274305955872353,0.39755611477037933,0.6787762818240759,0.6580895136650995,0.7498985088087174,,0.35285299447300467 | ||||
| 146 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,2,10342.0,267.0,110.0,291.0,0.0,0.025817056662154322,0.01063624057242313,0.02813769096886482,2.8065009661103013,0.15392008069232957,0.6334207718762639,-0.4548443351973533,-0.2754685856251532,0.23216026280346683,0.9624249857214798,0.2195386199157408,0.35268513993936146,0.019521531100478468,0.1989636931821384 | ||||
| 147 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,3,10450.0,204.0,72.0,206.0,0.0,0.019521531100478468,0.006889952153110048,0.01971291866028708,2.6091251322257483,0.15303676894710916,-0.29173290377213684,-0.9955605534879546,-0.3303220402276017,0.2504776602125636,-0.2203172238440726,-0.3174910122238404,-0.11973311677569982,0.036881559220389805,-0.0737629467398107 | ||||
| 148 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,4,10005.0,369.0,61.0,254.0,0.06946526736631684,0.036881559220389805,0.006096951524237881,0.025387306346826587,2.826148394530316,0.15727814952381008,2.259395459881151,-1.1100173846639294,-0.2700082954686465,0.16252337452912238,0.5763022674003498,0.32363908433560945,0.4573101573862617,0.02257836911601653,0.044858861553306796 | ||||
| 149 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,5,9921.0,224.0,111.0,443.0,0.3090414272754763,0.02257836911601653,0.011188388267311764,0.04465275677855055,3.047560412498076,0.16126767289992902,0.1574821614723895,-0.3751507344647119,-0.2084748552444755,0.07979189773321807,3.280952384613968,0.5869201708220776,0.6836390189711854,0.04521249874409726,0.6351673065251734 | ||||
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added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/index_region_week_5comp.csv
+86 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +region,week,ld,exits,cuts,entries,stale,exit,mdfreq,arrival,mddepth,disp,z_exit,z_mdfreq,z_mddepth,z_disp,z_arrival,z_stale,amli_equal,amli_pca,exit_next,amli_supervised | ||||
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| 3 | +(missing),7,673.0,12.0,2.0,9.0,0.7860326894502229,0.017830609212481426,0.0029717682020802376,0.01337295690936107,15.96491170147378,0.3675379101435875,-0.38638355523248136,-1.648674573778559,2.838122091609335,-3.96358127828012,-1.0762338564621572,-2.6013214836289937,-1.1396787759621627,-2.229507694799538,0.003125, | ||||
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| 30 | +Chaudière-Appalaches,9,24749.0,504.0,241.0,305.0,0.5836599458563982,0.02036445917006748,0.009737767182512425,0.012323730251727342,3.2270556344391377,0.16822475594344788,-0.002159558103901639,-0.6894327612014851,-0.1624867118215029,-0.0463348146450017,-1.255712543822065,-0.16297750759489446,-0.38651731619814184,-0.30996839349621763,0.010147259002598689, | ||||
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| 36 | +Côte-Nord,10,5242.0,124.0,49.0,82.0,0.5650515070583747,0.023655093475772607,0.009347577260587561,0.01564288439526898,4.255500234052513,0.13340327842184857,0.4968205264276089,-0.7447514937403134,0.07978011104103595,0.63803702336758,-0.6879444410066575,0.06123141422329299,-0.026137809947908857,-0.036462174464280565,, | ||||
| 37 | +Estrie,6,14026.0,398.0,226.0,205.0,0.5666619135890489,0.028375873378012263,0.01611293312419792,0.014615713674604307,2.5006251562890722,0.15131804387456246,1.2126628035807483,0.2143991416805631,-0.3336092049904023,0.28594510099486714,-0.8636502823500276,0.04182798571161214,0.09292925743789344,0.17700453832302146,0.019288635136177765, | ||||
| 38 | +Estrie,7,12961.0,250.0,63.0,183.0,0.6179307152225908,0.019288635136177765,0.004860736054316797,0.014119280919682124,3.125976867771178,0.15459334041087588,-0.16529368894324123,-1.380868304265424,-0.18629745638539702,0.22157331466837737,-0.948569111439671,-0.5758983513515411,-0.5058922662861495,-0.40951855808218235,0.01659326832337213, | ||||
| 39 | +Estrie,8,12716.0,211.0,118.0,197.0,0.6383296634161686,0.01659326832337213,0.009279647687952187,0.015492293173954074,2.364166063115535,0.15379346761734808,-0.5740095276389626,-0.7543821316654437,-0.36575435988380556,0.23729379676289306,-0.7137042847285846,-0.8216807208640721,-0.4987062046696626,-0.34517293145955164,0.015040617710930588, | ||||
| 40 | +Estrie,9,12433.0,187.0,135.0,160.0,0.6683825303627443,0.015040617710930588,0.010858199951741334,0.012868977720582321,2.779553603691247,0.15731814699992067,-0.8094479452415432,-0.5305846792649966,-0.26790308063182305,0.16802070787802303,-1.162443563964935,-1.1837810006765226,-0.6310232603169662,-0.5146842619350162,0.00857843137254902, | ||||
| 41 | +Estrie,10,12240.0,105.0,150.0,216.0,0.6901143790849673,0.00857843137254902,0.012254901960784314,0.01764705882352941,2.6328261412100047,0.1594542602154277,-1.7893509018823144,-0.33256883996925257,-0.3024671166288775,0.12603812036166295,-0.345114230768094,-1.4456231908791253,-0.6815143599610001,-0.5367621918105834,, | ||||
| 42 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,6,2384.0,37.0,11.0,25.0,0.6220637583892618,0.01552013422818792,0.004614093959731544,0.010486577181208054,4.167534903104814,0.16159827152957135,-0.7367357657384952,-1.4158357067956342,0.05905844916565411,0.08390030576519394,-1.5699724029068987,-0.6256964651151603,-0.7008802642708899,-0.668101911747889,0.012449977767896843, | ||||
| 43 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,7,2249.0,28.0,17.0,19.0,0.6545131169408626,0.012449977767896843,0.00755891507336594,0.008448199199644287,3.7043897017966287,0.1560504903145834,-1.202283373816669,-0.9983370416425014,-0.05004292244653217,0.19293488721389618,-1.918653406970861,-1.01667153688308,-0.8321755657576245,-0.7574840585536824,0.02427637721755369, | ||||
| 44 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,8,2142.0,52.0,19.0,21.0,0.6956115779645191,0.02427637721755369,0.008870214752567693,0.00980392156862745,8.33368057002375,0.15798309372484307,0.5910297837293094,-0.8124290205583956,1.0404617009172978,0.15495202599818853,-1.686746154672946,-1.5118577120650385,-0.3707648961085974,-0.7623900952248857,0.014335145823035097, | ||||
| 45 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,9,2023.0,29.0,4.0,25.0,0.7261492832427089,0.014335145823035097,0.001977261492832427,0.012357884330202669,3.996976098989338,0.15708307485608547,-0.9164231936446819,-1.789669631737908,0.01888055373032955,0.1726407517874827,-1.2498702130652737,-1.879799700618733,-0.9407069055914641,-0.9137260558181703,0.008525576730190571, | ||||
| 46 | +Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine,10,1994.0,17.0,3.0,39.0,0.7407221664994985,0.008525576730190571,0.0015045135406218655,0.019558676028084254,3.1254883575558683,0.15331415562968928,-1.7973655918969955,-1.8566929351528296,-0.18641253289787374,0.24671406406120183,-0.018116680608736592,-2.0553851152927547,-0.9445431319646648,-0.8265985808996619,, | ||||
| 47 | +Lanaudière,6,17898.0,347.0,386.0,688.0,0.47441054866465526,0.019387641077215332,0.021566655492233768,0.03844004916750475,2.8577552478509056,0.1561703479190984,-0.15028078011213955,0.9875944295806324,-0.24948141369875776,0.19057923848960434,3.211694573194543,1.1533440720665473,0.8572416865867383,0.9363430993787779,0.021396763332247205, | ||||
| 48 | +Lanaudière,7,18414.0,394.0,367.0,450.0,0.4649179971760617,0.021396763332247205,0.019930487672423156,0.024437927663734114,3.2263268269075653,0.15671831294722316,0.15437537414718983,0.7556285972335576,-0.1626583942681983,0.17980968302683728,0.8165186886832477,1.2677177042482675,0.5018986088451503,0.5681273637580575,0.020280136282515817, | ||||
| 49 | +Lanaudière,8,18491.0,375.0,432.0,361.0,0.4631983126926613,0.020280136282515817,0.023362716997458222,0.019523011194635228,2.435863397197481,0.1553597700689095,-0.014945980917740636,1.2422290073797209,-0.34886488879097566,0.20651011485296278,-0.024217438196021908,1.2884377983988642,0.3915247687878016,0.5281429786993872,0.02262318600673178, | ||||
| 50 | +Lanaudière,9,18123.0,410.0,344.0,340.0,0.4742592286045357,0.02262318600673178,0.018981404844672516,0.01876069083485074,3.4111623938253883,0.1556797920814642,0.340345747313448,0.6210734584269678,-0.11911737556285318,0.2002204893538523,-0.15461848788953325,1.1551672936649373,0.34051185421780317,0.3935251051703508,0.011318495946019481, | ||||
| 51 | +Lanaudière,10,18377.0,208.0,478.0,453.0,0.509386733416771,0.011318495946019481,0.026010774337487077,0.024650378190128965,2.5213867627194957,0.1556754211378549,-1.3738572537058389,1.6176543259473937,-0.3287184715184078,0.20030639468942846,0.8528600657621173,0.7319238359197883,0.2833614828490802,0.43181445995476225,, | ||||
| 52 | +Laurentides,6,32435.0,815.0,731.0,900.0,0.5043934021889934,0.02512717743178665,0.022537382457222137,0.027747803298905502,2.0002400288034563,0.15003042543593045,0.7200421027467577,1.125218141334932,-0.4514830458265344,0.31125160319480616,1.3826996277615977,0.7920873683371346,0.6466359662581156,0.7720249604777046,0.021700209902457093, | ||||
| 53 | +Laurentides,7,32396.0,703.0,737.0,692.0,0.5153414001728609,0.021700209902457093,0.022749722187924436,0.02136066181010001,2.1279312252627998,0.15149335834403316,0.20038893298951208,1.1553223652270839,-0.4214033113562956,0.28249951814653923,0.2901275299670745,0.6601773864910847,0.3611854035774998,0.4996751626185578,0.019691421024194033, | ||||
| 54 | +Laurentides,8,33314.0,656.0,707.0,785.0,0.49717836345080146,0.019691421024194033,0.02122230893918473,0.023563666926817554,2.016535591853196,0.15020728349394663,-0.10421666920209152,0.9387750885407186,-0.44764436138179065,0.3077756830774938,0.6669693340891082,0.879019758202011,0.37344647222090827,0.5391925725634159,0.018691588785046728, | ||||
| 55 | +Laurentides,9,32635.0,610.0,610.0,503.0,0.5275930749195649,0.018691588785046728,0.018691588785046728,0.015412900260456565,2.102962613762656,0.14998659238222678,-0.2558276745155934,0.5799851160915055,-0.4272850731757489,0.312113086097428,-0.7272850833067942,0.5125596945803924,-0.000956655704801764,0.17299933772222204,0.01150100479208533, | ||||
| 56 | +Laurentides,10,32345.0,372.0,1020.0,678.0,0.5511516463131859,0.01150100479208533,0.031535013139588806,0.02096150873396197,2.273502359718159,0.15044156030014622,-1.346182261294863,2.4008470011106677,-0.38711166719942675,0.3031712705173698,0.2218491750094432,0.2287077310131107,0.23688020819271693,0.38405530111957764,, | ||||
| 57 | +Laval,6,22378.0,595.0,696.0,492.0,0.47957815711859864,0.026588613817141837,0.031101975154169275,0.021985878988292074,2.6147362616993353,0.12982566882563873,0.9416491193142507,2.3394535330877053,-0.3067284814478124,0.7083503882594303,0.3970759739856874,1.0910807122859163,0.8618135409141963,0.9293275614995588,0.01906052393857272, | ||||
| 58 | +Laval,7,22140.0,422.0,428.0,470.0,0.5138211382113821,0.01906052393857272,0.019331526648599818,0.02122854561878952,2.5013240261064933,0.1302022375707265,-0.19988365977841122,0.6707115790937443,-0.33344457485833223,0.7009494086756678,0.2675279892263981,0.6784946832274755,0.29739257093109045,0.43817019103338484,0.018161229911589215, | ||||
| 59 | +Laval,8,22961.0,417.0,680.0,480.0,0.4983232437611602,0.018161229911589215,0.029615434867819347,0.02090501284787248,2.2117370990132676,0.13043833987748937,-0.3362494081160272,2.1287009741719984,-0.4016614771550391,0.6963091182245204,0.21218509775520683,0.8652253511170023,0.5274182759996103,0.6736529690635462,0.02881612989561959, | ||||
| 60 | +Laval,9,22418.0,646.0,536.0,502.0,0.512623784458917,0.02881612989561959,0.02390935855116424,0.022392720135605317,2.5002343994168097,0.1312236975107051,1.2794217363465026,1.3197284921303696,-0.33370125411583923,0.6808739131385885,0.46666943556286167,0.692921331093479,0.6843189423593271,0.7576691704471655,0.03147311671280781, | ||||
| 61 | +Laval,10,20589.0,648.0,598.0,497.0,0.5264947301957356,0.03147311671280781,0.0290446354849677,0.02413910340473068,2.3050638127043332,0.13220089072524793,1.682317768987113,2.0477765406614403,-0.37967685452914746,0.6616684237702731,0.76540238757993,0.5257934047796929,0.8838802785415503,0.9372501343683587,, | ||||
| 62 | +Mauricie,6,16720.0,459.0,147.0,394.0,0.5000598086124401,0.027452153110047846,0.008791866028708134,0.023564593301435406,3.031221582297666,0.14371719371004077,1.0725931469211678,-0.823536821801863,-0.20861860228837573,0.43533014056779545,0.667127797943611,0.8443018691850205,0.331199588421226,0.40724324657815164,0.023544520547945206, | ||||
| 63 | +Mauricie,7,16352.0,385.0,186.0,387.0,0.5108243639921722,0.023544520547945206,0.011374755381604696,0.02366682974559687,2.5787351998252825,0.14427049030379466,0.4800536408522181,-0.4573506205145163,-0.3152091160713821,0.42445579996583305,0.6846161667959867,0.7146021462937994,0.25519466955365644,0.37891796001667505,0.02191028379615502, | ||||
| 64 | +Mauricie,8,16385.0,359.0,109.0,345.0,0.5107110161733293,0.02191028379615502,0.006652425999389686,0.02105584375953616,3.3338889814969157,0.14555150525348015,0.2322437912013525,-1.1268534994364032,-0.13732038241767427,0.3992790809396499,0.23798594244566415,0.7159678488403196,0.0535504635954848,0.14033132655934097,0.02470610423084177, | ||||
| 65 | +Mauricie,9,15907.0,393.0,194.0,236.0,0.5422141195700007,0.02470610423084177,0.012195888602502043,0.014836235619538568,2.7785495971103082,0.1477217058027128,0.6561920599032983,-0.3409353917421187,-0.2681395906826207,0.3566265502475507,-0.8259282239912401,0.33639399403393017,-0.014298433705200056,0.0864285591424436,0.01730952705465449, | ||||
| 66 | +Mauricie,10,14674.0,254.0,226.0,246.0,0.5794602698650675,0.01730952705465449,0.015401390213983917,0.016764345100177182,2.632029166985682,0.14915446386256126,-0.46539860066294886,0.11352095460220096,-0.302654856846778,0.3284675134508605,-0.49610953691017295,-0.11237654981320207,-0.15575851269667343,-0.02686660803640801,, | ||||
| 67 | +Montréal,6,27678.0,744.0,557.0,865.0,0.5292651203121613,0.026880554953392585,0.020124286436881276,0.031252258111135196,2.514754939697203,0.17066381542713338,0.9859180350646467,0.7831041967173356,-0.33028070510298924,-0.0942714256298879,1.9821649053876886,0.49241359319197614,0.6365080999381283,0.6950807553598352,0.02382442960489705, | ||||
| 68 | +Montréal,7,28752.0,685.0,563.0,880.0,0.5337367835281024,0.02382442960489705,0.01958124652198108,0.03060656649972176,2.2201403111246676,0.16957772266278737,0.5224980548841316,0.7061153302133548,-0.3996819641109391,-0.07292565416092615,1.8717141443317846,0.43853552210485836,0.5110425722103774,0.6120925316894436,0.025570335653732165, | ||||
| 69 | +Montréal,8,29018.0,742.0,556.0,646.0,0.5395271900199876,0.025570335653732165,0.01916052105589634,0.022262044248397547,2.7232563640845706,0.16968467550756214,0.7872410396398148,0.6464674556198706,-0.2811648094411025,-0.07502767625099348,0.4443162704626387,0.3687682079026314,0.31510008132214323,0.3770179591669481,0.02818159088473765, | ||||
| 70 | +Montréal,9,27997.0,789.0,532.0,679.0,0.5586670000357181,0.02818159088473765,0.01900203593242133,0.024252598492695645,2.5866636158657874,0.16883800586254089,1.1832024971744473,0.6239984074352141,-0.3133414489503844,-0.058387461579079064,0.7848166383155035,0.1381569129944483,0.39307425756502495,0.4438685927117408,0.01771979009417008, | ||||
| 71 | +Montréal,10,27822.0,493.0,513.0,779.0,0.5677161958162605,0.01771979009417008,0.018438645676083675,0.02799942491553447,2.564760194921775,0.16711446031073868,-0.4031877722573972,0.5441243944120736,-0.31850115536910795,-0.02451336659119036,1.4257415359473788,0.029125174690179393,0.20879813513865608,0.31196721788228143,, | ||||
| 72 | +Montérégie,6,63288.0,1570.0,1276.0,1566.0,0.5253760586525091,0.024807230438629757,0.020161800025281253,0.024744027303754267,2.85832723195197,0.1542639857146179,0.6715264784447074,0.7884226430601646,-0.24934667355724224,0.22804636219188726,0.8688795024239672,0.5392720282847515,0.4744667234747059,0.5335107302333979,0.024874992088106843, | ||||
| 73 | +Montérégie,7,63196.0,1572.0,1079.0,1577.0,0.5400816507373885,0.024874992088106843,0.017073865434521173,0.02495411101968479,2.8169807600214094,0.15450523689929774,0.6818016140091333,0.3506342274061413,-0.25908650630560587,0.2233048770960974,0.9048160174720481,0.3620876345891847,0.3772596440444998,0.44291763254052946,0.02364658533911709, | ||||
| 74 | +Montérégie,8,63857.0,1510.0,1045.0,1515.0,0.5290727719748813,0.02364658533911709,0.016364689853892292,0.02372488529057112,2.564760194921775,0.15441071111150467,0.49553038284033285,0.25009166578807945,-0.31850115536910795,0.22516266119188713,0.6945470362893732,0.4947311553358594,0.306926957679404,0.40743543128366855,0.02381791389031266, | ||||
| 75 | +Montérégie,9,62432.0,1487.0,1142.0,1335.0,0.5457617888262429,0.02381791389031266,0.018291901588928756,0.021383264992311635,2.7536077599632893,0.15404383019300347,0.5215100350946139,0.5233199183022558,-0.2740150453684975,0.23237323886972033,0.29399398669878596,0.29364891974032004,0.2651385088895331,0.34219498796060344,0.025510033164718098, | ||||
| 76 | +Montérégie,10,59702.0,1523.0,1511.0,1705.0,0.5508860674684265,0.025510033164718098,0.025309034873203577,0.028558507252688353,2.7028488026379804,0.1557227430135043,0.7780969846430223,1.5181660112694078,-0.2859721418690195,0.19937634343022223,1.5213770816785446,0.231907631181391,0.6604919850555947,0.6998733612608948,, | ||||
| 77 | +Outaouais,6,12352.0,269.0,223.0,288.0,0.529630829015544,0.021777849740932644,0.01805375647668394,0.023316062176165803,2.500125006250313,0.14251328527049767,0.21216196200655485,0.4895571657823764,-0.3337270234522722,0.4589914292382117,0.6246145432460348,0.4880072507268752,0.3232675545912968,0.4398323654149425,0.024693417869358473, | ||||
| 78 | +Outaouais,7,11987.0,296.0,140.0,239.0,0.5462584466505381,0.024693417869358473,0.011679319262534413,0.019938266455326602,2.395127242544655,0.14132094040164725,0.6542683451610197,-0.414171422581816,-0.35846095139569667,0.48242545063876463,0.046815325378883,0.2876648005723208,0.11642359129557926,0.24395766687181084,0.020176113533384627, | ||||
| 79 | +Outaouais,8,11697.0,236.0,144.0,159.0,0.5568949303240147,0.020176113533384627,0.01231084893562452,0.013593229033085406,2.2184687906443457,0.14100437809233926,-0.030719620688252538,-0.32463702122243754,-0.4000757178982306,0.48864708007227253,-1.0385545320374587,0.1595081850576311,-0.19097193778607932,-0.019666639410958645,0.020415440848711778, | ||||
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| 81 | +Outaouais,10,10338.0,333.0,213.0,270.0,0.6008899206809828,0.03221125943122461,0.02060359837492745,0.0261172373766686,2.564431337350942,0.14594426975203978,1.7942471059521363,0.8510581017609149,-0.3185786231091203,0.39155979442693345,1.1037781676102887,-0.37057762495589136,0.575247820280877,0.5947460092076455,, | ||||
| 82 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,6,9953.0,450.0,95.0,210.0,0.4975384306239325,0.04521249874409726,0.009544860845976088,0.02109916608057872,3.2609404552272876,0.16785789299325038,3.7657088025934646,-0.7167818377313339,-0.15450459214417883,-0.03912459011131714,0.24539657508402907,0.874681389274554,0.662562624494203,0.6158146203247269,0.020534099372273646, | ||||
| 83 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,7,9399.0,193.0,97.0,196.0,0.5360144696244281,0.020534099372273646,0.010320246834769656,0.020853282264070645,2.914798206278027,0.15903139523585264,0.023564078913441543,-0.6068523707763006,-0.2360440187141239,0.13434899353249335,0.20333616391468248,0.4110921911817017,-0.011759160324684251,0.09383201931665336,0.023785817015156543, | ||||
| 84 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,8,9039.0,215.0,166.0,131.0,0.5514990596304901,0.023785817015156543,0.018364863369841798,0.014492753623188406,3.210046839460745,0.16177582928640677,0.5166429790833066,0.5336639918343815,-0.16649340962679504,0.08041063395780224,-0.8846835914689584,0.22452182556754932,0.050677071557881016,0.09546548302781166,0.026567233745047776, | ||||
| 85 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,9,8582.0,228.0,59.0,145.0,0.5791190864600326,0.026567233745047776,0.006874854346306222,0.016895828478210206,3.027950310559006,0.1630961325235527,0.9384071212100284,-1.0953189734511344,-0.20938920345750342,0.054461753627292185,-0.47361824398759883,-0.10826570718876603,-0.14895387554128034,-0.08507438151647204,0.014311043566362716, | ||||
| 86 | +Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean,10,7896.0,113.0,86.0,143.0,0.6152482269503546,0.014311043566362716,0.010891590678824722,0.018110435663627154,3.687478172761127,0.16744038168880865,-0.9200779741381977,-0.5258507468976747,-0.05402670767980459,-0.030918936613857653,-0.26584988268025006,-0.5435776494465601,-0.3900503162427242,-0.3402626411859801,, | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/index_tier_week.csv
+28 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +tier,week,ld,exits,cuts,entries,stale,exit,mdfreq,arrival,mddepth,disp,z_exit,z_mdfreq,z_mddepth,z_disp,z_arrival,amli_equal,amli_pca,exit_next,amli_supervised | ||||
| 2 | +high,2,102925.0,2595.0,1439.0,2725.0,0.0,0.025212533398105415,0.013981054165654603,0.026475589021131892,2.174054829662804,0.16390587388937802,0.6583263323270194,-0.9723489104642813,-0.7872743594987778,-0.28552969478098034,1.2354836416259196,-0.030268598158220028,0.3141550986607731,0.019522797342065454,-0.7402455066672095 | ||||
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| 9 | +high,9,107269.0,2289.0,1743.0,2102.0,0.5908883274757851,0.021338877028778118,0.01624886966411545,0.019595596118170206,2.3114496714543233,0.16295134066578654,-0.6198168370864023,-0.1274151911461218,-0.6079708327952553,-0.24401923806799825,-1.5407087038239355,-0.6279861605839427,-0.2817042159555446,0.01652868969454753,0.12986738985419868 | ||||
| 10 | +high,10,105090.0,1737.0,2511.0,2526.0,0.6141592920353982,0.01652868969454753,0.023893805309734513,0.024036540108478447,2.247443532981234,0.16362000367802698,-2.206975711974798,2.7209046626448465,-0.6915003613368963,-0.2730978561183409,0.25128656221157836,-0.03987654091472209,0.4359903335475857,,0.1346452232614216 | ||||
| 11 | +low,2,111352.0,3011.0,1453.0,2769.0,0.0,0.027040376463826423,0.013048710395861772,0.024867088152884548,4.040404040404041,0.1818900301365631,1.261437425946485,-1.3197178607288969,1.648355618910612,-1.0676193287168407,0.5864266060938887,0.22177649230104962,-0.7689540394959317,0.020381675289568378,-0.3962303256243096 | ||||
| 12 | +low,3,111718.0,2277.0,1371.0,2552.0,0.0,0.020381675289568378,0.012271970497144596,0.022843230276231224,3.8292169251388093,0.1799461991114366,-0.935653025967049,-1.6091125367999162,1.3727514254223478,-0.9830865836728635,-0.23023393770182668,-0.47706693174386156,-1.0233415109624413,0.024532228261844535,-0.274199138075101 | ||||
| 13 | +low,4,111486.0,2735.0,1707.0,2551.0,0.0909620938951976,0.024532228261844535,0.015311339540390722,0.022881796817537627,3.5727045373347623,0.179171894260159,0.4338543399443513,-0.4767164526240402,1.0379966764325919,-0.9494138447705172,-0.2146716924676462,-0.03379019469705207,-0.6594048959497325,0.026429116546135115,-0.15197321778809222 | ||||
| 14 | +low,5,110068.0,2909.0,1725.0,2559.0,0.2585674310426282,0.026429116546135115,0.015672129956027184,0.02324926409128902,4.026014245896562,0.18085816124557832,1.0597474426222715,-0.34229458806541246,1.6295765958404083,-1.0227457215190383,-0.0663924940759172,0.25157824696046227,-0.7609370116409405,0.025738994296790548,-0.06338115625049551 | ||||
| 15 | +low,6,107308.0,2762.0,1817.0,2484.0,0.523987027994185,0.025738994296790548,0.016932567935289074,0.023148320721661012,3.726477996740258,0.18299912439661692,0.8320362171133432,0.12731440372003666,1.2386746875230215,-1.1158512897787685,-0.10712483407070914,0.1950098369013847,-0.6278547692223192,0.02289446740737932,-0.09634943578622757 | ||||
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| 17 | +low,8,104745.0,2255.0,1649.0,2006.0,0.5409422884147215,0.021528473912835935,0.015742994892357632,0.01915127213709485,3.7050759540570586,0.18247934846573705,-0.5572578645819181,-0.31589201066722145,1.21074451429585,-1.0932474288067453,-1.7200008706269279,-0.49513073207739255,-1.1141884150591046,0.023561741683945276,0.2254218124225786 | ||||
| 18 | +low,9,100799.0,2375.0,1427.0,1781.0,0.5617615254119585,0.023561741683945276,0.014156886477048384,0.017668826079623806,3.8568817928248533,0.1822714179784936,0.11363471479346123,-0.9068380040686386,1.4088547337941488,-1.0842050096675222,-2.3181926791565224,-0.5573492488610146,-1.341809297339831,0.017316017316017316,0.3203288952094442 | ||||
| 19 | +low,10,96789.0,1676.0,1755.0,2208.0,0.5738565332837409,0.017316017316017316,0.018132225769457274,0.02281250968601804,3.8850537807031627,0.1833581072289916,-1.9471908148320296,0.5742781696969649,1.4456198460426462,-1.1314626283426843,-0.24263021028531043,-0.26027712754408266,-0.8339278554146825,,0.050013134742257076 | ||||
| 20 | +mid,2,105973.0,2999.0,1383.0,2960.0,0.0,0.02829966123446538,0.013050493993753126,0.027931642965661065,2.2842523642011967,0.12876485780183813,1.6769482700893397,-1.3190533348884426,-0.6434639637144243,1.2426723531933315,1.8230257906336373,0.5560258230626883,0.845293373187553,0.020020996497486922,-0.34033143446835273 | ||||
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| 22 | +mid,4,108415.0,2944.0,1843.0,2841.0,0.09368629802149149,0.0271549139879168,0.016999492690125906,0.02620486095097542,2.38106576503643,0.12767986835016018,1.2992299764723496,0.15224896389793388,-0.5171201798025117,1.289856051523349,1.1262403318336573,0.6700910287849556,0.863327655912529,0.027338569825563604,0.11744501708257588 | ||||
| 23 | +mid,5,107833.0,2948.0,1753.0,2890.0,0.33916333589902903,0.027338569825563604,0.01625661903127985,0.026800701084083722,2.2728305832083278,0.1266781195319051,1.3598286543183993,-0.12452796261054509,-0.6583696587649285,1.3334198059634506,1.3666718031997118,0.6554045284212175,0.9318735032091692,0.026407382869726687,-0.0015545022054784725 | ||||
| 24 | +mid,6,107167.0,2830.0,2073.0,2777.0,0.4906641036886355,0.026407382869726687,0.0193436412328422,0.025912827642837814,2.1934634788330776,0.12782891392484186,1.0525762463675818,1.0256225466147715,-0.7619456120770807,1.2833744019346562,1.008400001748576,0.7216055169177009,1.0197046472239268,0.022352245085793174,0.23417847108693257 | ||||
| 25 | +mid,7,106477.0,2380.0,1664.0,2486.0,0.5026155883430224,0.022352245085793174,0.015627788160823466,0.023347765245076403,2.2728305832083278,0.1273700938821175,-0.2854481330290324,-0.35881527855727563,-0.6583696587649285,1.3033274313859484,-0.02664562906900798,-0.005190253606859221,0.48399333032482433,0.02220546338193397,0.2877725116822924 | ||||
| 26 | +mid,8,107406.0,2385.0,1928.0,2236.0,0.5017596782302665,0.02220546338193397,0.01795058004208331,0.020818203824739773,2.222716159146477,0.1269353674196367,-0.3338799024725072,0.5066013237928333,-0.7237701705733737,1.3222326863910063,-1.0473660210131277,-0.05523641677503379,0.4124623249043815,0.024132425361649737,0.6718059317484866 | ||||
| 27 | +mid,9,103968.0,2509.0,1712.0,2057.0,0.5282009849184365,0.024132425361649737,0.016466605109264388,0.01978493382579255,2.2882724089822988,0.1265212458608132,0.3019362508639822,-0.046292181085581766,-0.6382177099442031,1.340241881478817,-1.4643077682386825,-0.10132790538513362,0.2625217797617631,0.020932835075238306,0.7075120737771528 | ||||
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added
results/_pre_final_backup/amli/summary.json
+290 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,290 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +{ | ||||
| 2 | + "listing_days": 2867226, | ||||
| 3 | + "weeks": 11, | ||||
| 4 | + "region": { | ||||
| 5 | + "mu": { | ||||
| 6 | + "exit": 0.021506727723722932, | ||||
| 7 | + "mdfreq": 0.013787575797630338, | ||||
| 8 | + "mddepth": 3.7977027453020904, | ||||
| 9 | + "disp": 0.1651154422564084, | ||||
| 10 | + "arrival": 0.021282256789536786 | ||||
| 11 | + }, | ||||
| 12 | + "sd": { | ||||
| 13 | + "exit": 0.006804843051900096, | ||||
| 14 | + "mdfreq": 0.006928381825047617, | ||||
| 15 | + "mddepth": 3.5982388951623596, | ||||
| 16 | + "disp": 0.04822255724941248, | ||||
| 17 | + "arrival": 0.007123084168673025 | ||||
| 18 | + }, | ||||
| 19 | + "weights": { | ||||
| 20 | + "equal": { | ||||
| 21 | + "exit": 0.2, | ||||
| 22 | + "mdfreq": 0.2, | ||||
| 23 | + "mddepth": 0.2, | ||||
| 24 | + "disp": 0.2, | ||||
| 25 | + "arrival": 0.2 | ||||
| 26 | + }, | ||||
| 27 | + "pca": { | ||||
| 28 | + "exit": 0.4097388911728078, | ||||
| 29 | + "mdfreq": 0.3469529509809659, | ||||
| 30 | + "mddepth": -0.5056403070768307, | ||||
| 31 | + "disp": 0.5151264462987085, | ||||
| 32 | + "arrival": 0.4367039214948608 | ||||
| 33 | + }, | ||||
| 34 | + "pca_explained": 0.5607749361807227, | ||||
| 35 | + "supervised": { | ||||
| 36 | + "mdfreq": 0.001156227500221323, | ||||
| 37 | + "mddepth": -0.0038620352514301243, | ||||
| 38 | + "disp": -0.0015662014813582824, | ||||
| 39 | + "arrival": 0.0014875845316168828 | ||||
| 40 | + }, | ||||
| 41 | + "supervised_fit_weeks": [ | ||||
| 42 | + 2, | ||||
| 43 | + 3, | ||||
| 44 | + 4, | ||||
| 45 | + 5 | ||||
| 46 | + ] | ||||
| 47 | + } | ||||
| 48 | + }, | ||||
| 49 | + "region_validation": { | ||||
| 50 | + "noexit_fe": { | ||||
| 51 | + "b": 0.009649097626225574, | ||||
| 52 | + "se": 0.0013056386980831252, | ||||
| 53 | + "lo": 0.006881267231290816, | ||||
| 54 | + "hi": 0.012416928021160331, | ||||
| 55 | + "n": 68, | ||||
| 56 | + "r2": 0.654723904656503 | ||||
| 57 | + }, | ||||
| 58 | + "noexit_fe_lagexit": { | ||||
| 59 | + "b": 0.010258031885144655, | ||||
| 60 | + "se": 0.0015202821086663116, | ||||
| 61 | + "lo": 0.0070351777866716775, | ||||
| 62 | + "hi": 0.013480885983617632, | ||||
| 63 | + "n": 68, | ||||
| 64 | + "r2": 0.6594601565992118 | ||||
| 65 | + }, | ||||
| 66 | + "noexit_pooled": { | ||||
| 67 | + "b": 0.009751271335315342, | ||||
| 68 | + "se": 0.001821974928283107, | ||||
| 69 | + "lo": 0.005888857029799718, | ||||
| 70 | + "hi": 0.013613685640830965, | ||||
| 71 | + "n": 68, | ||||
| 72 | + "r2": 0.3738388426891519 | ||||
| 73 | + } | ||||
| 74 | + }, | ||||
| 75 | + "region_5comp": { | ||||
| 76 | + "mu": { | ||||
| 77 | + "exit": 0.020378700852655942, | ||||
| 78 | + "mdfreq": 0.014600671716285542, | ||||
| 79 | + "mddepth": 3.916826438824417, | ||||
| 80 | + "disp": 0.16586719735174157, | ||||
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| 120 | + 4, | ||||
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| 188 | + 3, | ||||
| 189 | + 4, | ||||
| 190 | + 5 | ||||
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| 211 | + "r2": 0.7373069046569873 | ||||
| 212 | + }, | ||||
| 213 | + "noexit_pooled": { | ||||
| 214 | + "b": 0.00391964534664742, | ||||
| 215 | + "se": 0.0016675651353503388, | ||||
| 216 | + "lo": -0.003255308335002749, | ||||
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| 221 | + } | ||||
| 222 | + }, | ||||
| 223 | + "segment_body_filled": { | ||||
| 224 | + "pca_explained": 0.4593474015605346, | ||||
| 225 | + "validation": { | ||||
| 226 | + "noexit_fe": { | ||||
| 227 | + "b": 0.004582272548587403, | ||||
| 228 | + "se": 0.0017026356310000934, | ||||
| 229 | + "lo": 0.0005561790438985987, | ||||
| 230 | + "hi": 0.008608366053276207, | ||||
| 231 | + "n": 32, | ||||
| 232 | + "r2": 0.7706501048017181 | ||||
| 233 | + }, | ||||
| 234 | + "noexit_fe_lagexit": { | ||||
| 235 | + "b": 0.004864118352069319, | ||||
| 236 | + "se": 0.0027438830432557266, | ||||
| 237 | + "lo": -0.0016241340355473855, | ||||
| 238 | + "hi": 0.011352370739686023, | ||||
| 239 | + "n": 32, | ||||
| 240 | + "r2": 0.7711355021702004 | ||||
| 241 | + }, | ||||
| 242 | + "noexit_pooled": { | ||||
| 243 | + "b": 0.0064663729119921985, | ||||
| 244 | + "se": 0.0010987441525991742, | ||||
| 245 | + "lo": 0.003868255842460428, | ||||
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| 248 | + "r2": 0.608256280205111 | ||||
| 249 | + } | ||||
| 250 | + } | ||||
| 251 | + }, | ||||
| 252 | + "component_corr": { | ||||
| 253 | + "exit": { | ||||
| 254 | + "exit": 1.0, | ||||
| 255 | + "mdfreq": 0.192, | ||||
| 256 | + "mddepth": -0.345, | ||||
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| 259 | + }, | ||||
| 260 | + "mdfreq": { | ||||
| 261 | + "exit": 0.192, | ||||
| 262 | + "mdfreq": 1.0, | ||||
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| 267 | + "mddepth": { | ||||
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| 269 | + "mdfreq": -0.408, | ||||
| 270 | + "mddepth": 1.0, | ||||
| 271 | + "disp": 0.877, | ||||
| 272 | + "arrival": -0.405 | ||||
| 273 | + }, | ||||
| 274 | + "disp": { | ||||
| 275 | + "exit": -0.441, | ||||
| 276 | + "mdfreq": -0.368, | ||||
| 277 | + "mddepth": 0.877, | ||||
| 278 | + "disp": 1.0, | ||||
| 279 | + "arrival": -0.406 | ||||
| 280 | + }, | ||||
| 281 | + "arrival": { | ||||
| 282 | + "exit": 0.619, | ||||
| 283 | + "mdfreq": 0.346, | ||||
| 284 | + "mddepth": -0.405, | ||||
| 285 | + "disp": -0.406, | ||||
| 286 | + "arrival": 1.0 | ||||
| 287 | + } | ||||
| 288 | + }, | ||||
| 289 | + "seconds": 98.3 | ||||
| 290 | +} | ||||
| \ No newline at end of file | |||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_coarse_fe.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.003482543581046244,0.0014028856963651357,2.482414347847072,0.013228909327857252,0.0007292761846390324,0.0062358109774534555,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.0007214864307566062,0.0010942736714252633,0.659329059628099,0.5098512958391246,-0.0014261069405980278,0.00286907980211124,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,0.0006652093171644275,0.0005783077799089234,1.15026866363304,0.2503354162175848,-0.00046976266211894917,0.0018001812964478041,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.0013647495944523044,0.0006625180407589756,2.0599432928480828,0.039687863418244484,6.45087224557684e-05,0.0026649904664488404,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,0.0003834927478274455,0.0005881772496938784,0.6520020079440975,0.5145645181506455,-0.000770848799090093,0.0015378342947449841,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.0006537692986789424,0.0005727033581686504,-1.1415496161390057,0.2539415755714891,-0.0017777421839568776,0.0004702035865989928,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,0.000956676534850631,0.0011472514948385017,0.8338856293975037,0.40456426648297605,-0.0012948897505583807,0.0032082428202596424,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.010988529504295106,0.002032877104965589,5.405407674401012,8.263077666548213e-08,0.00699885716783437,0.014978201840755842,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,0.0006843385516677944,0.002027096635392321,0.33759542575302465,0.7357459462945166,-0.0032939891838370417,0.0046626662871726305,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.0011310746288265637,0.0006342800998128884,-1.7832415507915649,0.07488021392404409,-0.002375896443981922,0.00011374718632879504,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,0.00036561254898562993,0.0008026442100616738,0.45551010572609363,0.6488509648161707,-0.0012096363399321513,0.0019408614379034111,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.001442975288744538,0.0010068539487989832,1.4331525346509078,0.15215771050848725,-0.0005330503827372381,0.0034190009602263144,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,2.4382506241423596e-05,0.0008367033499641519,0.029141160056868724,0.9767583982926913,-0.0016177099749135099,0.0016664749873963572,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.00044183204678274686,0.000737706745680456,0.5989264018118795,0.5493710258290099,-0.0010059722442255928,0.0018896363377910864,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.0041531183847718185,0.0007801333722075137,5.323600467212288,1.2820824690784605e-07,0.0026220486874234243,0.005684188082120213,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,-0.0007712127651020634,0.0010009808712659384,-0.7704570459240767,0.4412287981869334,-0.0027357120856272357,0.0011932865554231092,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0012219504283445912,0.0007450277699095532,-1.6401407809173834,0.10132149334894369,-0.0026841227732653104,0.00024022191657612803,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0008699457654341853,0.0008469092353585801,-1.0272007071287297,0.30459892158416446,-0.002532068054848447,0.0007921765239800766,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0004086034154183972,0.0007210629170361566,0.5666681863184879,0.5710793724400784,-0.001006536125442108,0.0018237429562789024,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,0.0002742861982021247,0.0008078932606724245,0.3395079666512272,0.7343054344917368,-0.0013112643424796713,0.0018598367388839208,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,0.00012169415096981409,0.0009709281423023279,0.12533795825635974,0.9002836861504744,-0.0017838244564131842,0.0020272127583528124,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.005677947695755378,0.0010725238197063743,5.294006148329492,1.5007195952598806e-07,0.003573040024147676,0.007782855367363079,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_dealer_dow_fe.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.0011855023305778903,0.0013676839207729073,0.8667955457924355,0.3862825329918831,-0.0014986789661671435,0.003869683627322924,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.0023306015868701686,0.0008082785795514225,2.8834137707368206,0.004026596902474644,0.0007442948292638474,0.00391690834447649,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,0.0010904010787013412,0.00048584763825995354,2.2443272187276135,0.025050994557220374,0.00013688899606448626,0.002043913161338196,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.0014305326582674217,0.000614039834577875,2.329706604866847,0.02003961501620677,0.00022543386724053214,0.002635631449294311,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,4.8706684418271505e-06,0.0005455736264493854,0.008927609777484392,0.9928788493474459,-0.0010658581029289935,0.0010755994398126479,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.0007757634127739608,0.0005445707822632338,-1.4245410110874688,0.15463275836038548,-0.0018445240279303717,0.00029299720238245,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.00031346897203399373,0.0010283698775360776,-0.3048212310390203,0.7605720101097027,-0.0023317212520333067,0.0017047833079653193,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.005520239166829862,0.001970313222256877,2.8017064010293526,0.0051911712917427355,0.0016533530979181174,0.009387125235741606,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,-5.8614291999277003e-05,0.0018090615554905306,-0.03240038561506196,0.9741598598551533,-0.0036090319858506576,0.0034918034018521036,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.0016387004278449148,0.0007122228597375767,-2.3008253743058806,0.02162681975527425,-0.0030364906995485573,-0.00024091015614127243,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,-0.00030560154682379324,0.000582867796328023,-0.5243067960677117,0.6001928530499474,-0.001449522897083236,0.0008383198034356495,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.0008985096362607102,0.0008412299220686411,1.0680904384038246,0.28576297303807086,-0.0007524665789183623,0.0025494858514397826,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,0.0004578402282583448,0.0007443395407677656,0.6150959383215021,0.5386451442998834,-0.0010029814158445884,0.0019186618723612777,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.0005391364637315637,0.0005846136063576002,0.9222099141527358,0.35666352626830533,-0.0006082111684033089,0.0016864840958664363,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.0016547820977557673,0.0006242245869572921,2.650940274271804,0.008166260776332201,0.0004296949735814342,0.0028798692219301003,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,0.0004458514702669446,0.0006546930499718083,0.6810084058264303,0.49603941996645906,-0.0008390322760084327,0.001730735216542322,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0004956217600056062,0.0006667461823281329,-0.7433439787761553,0.45746531666314905,-0.0018041606739309444,0.0008129171539197321,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0004499992275540965,0.0006680655002158724,-0.6735854903578885,0.50074592127317,-0.0017611274008433458,0.0008611289457351527,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0009268912048264381,0.0006947514162834221,1.3341335952718882,0.1824938443228985,-0.0004366100611833462,0.0022903924708362225,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,0.0011891425849576288,0.0007694675903441552,1.5454095791425966,0.1225948968911783,-0.00032099472314646503,0.0026992798930617224,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,0.0003394491762001744,0.0007641555456100174,0.4442147651093674,0.6569929330510678,-0.0011602628494930625,0.0018391612018934112,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.0032606251620528074,0.0009005841392544512,3.620566940865866,0.000310188264211142,0.0014931618863524266,0.005028088437753188,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_dealer_dow_fe_firstcut.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,-0.009785568550553679,0.0034481826447644503,-2.8378915964360534,0.004666941726250151,-0.016555075429330185,-0.0030160616717771734,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,-0.006183528587324767,0.001895871069660092,-3.261576531379532,0.0011592931419559527,-0.009905521755762071,-0.0024615354188874615,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,-0.005285370166112276,0.0017275654738044567,-3.0594326213713896,0.002298497758622897,-0.008676944094544638,-0.0018937962376799132,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,-0.007165101397180121,0.0017068632298196623,-4.197818121570963,3.0265903449677722e-05,-0.010516032471825733,-0.00381417032253451,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,-0.008388951744227355,0.0020073850002575544,-4.179044748840419,3.2811670715560126e-05,-0.012329870183750612,-0.0044480333047041,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.010352708140806589,0.0018508303948812663,-5.593547722923975,3.143716642561856e-08,-0.01398627700312341,-0.006719139278489769,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.004286846890541203,0.002940291678448538,-1.4579665418783154,0.14527865597909706,-0.010059257111643741,0.0014855633305613349,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.017698412713532136,0.004980708128496648,3.5533928624069238,0.00040469292738620766,0.007920236378171758,0.027476589048892514,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,0.003135152962347562,0.004474764559304733,0.7006297025903608,0.48375677245940274,-0.00564974986497584,0.011920055789670963,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.00517440975636979,0.002026898766909834,-2.552870345990976,0.010885715521178119,-0.009153637819016989,-0.0011951816937225915,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,0.0007140923452447535,0.0023133100089980873,0.3086885642076275,0.7576462744476322,-0.0038274211509827186,0.005255605841472225,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.0049304521816563385,0.0020638226240322316,2.388990276704776,0.017147042080524866,0.0008787348310183912,0.008982169532294287,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,0.001998403330498302,0.0019113832645393728,1.0455272720931248,0.2961244689302076,-0.0017540435350770173,0.005750850196073621,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.003070468194755744,0.0018772723032920184,1.6356008605524706,0.10235303770729542,-0.0006150116883262744,0.006755948077837762,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.006545205515335979,0.002030942426015645,3.2227430140284827,0.0013259504968750058,0.002558038900427409,0.01053237213024455,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,0.0031664447777507826,0.0024923679745299464,1.270456373260038,0.20432575689164167,-0.0017265971188669912,0.008059486674368557,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0004588164014969321,0.002424140360412435,-0.18926973412499537,0.8499338815660593,-0.005217913159276924,0.00430028035628306,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0012642691987351374,0.002567689990671874,-0.49237610588820446,0.6226011275873304,-0.006305184035659682,0.0037766456381894066,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0038907549129783827,0.002182732046610382,1.7825160532280777,0.07507948532136632,-0.0003944066130475302,0.008175916439004297,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,-0.0014703966081780438,0.0027881955996208636,-0.5273649411031232,0.5980999800072391,-0.006944210276275424,0.0040034170599193356,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,-0.0014761037248287856,0.002863799600638399,-0.5154354112277033,0.606404418517851,-0.0070983439287792835,0.004146136479121712,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.010415547497978716,0.0033131107396886113,3.1437366017405264,0.0017354092584449532,0.003911215142926664,0.01691987985303077,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_dow_fe.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.0012230162530917044,0.0014631284781722138,0.8358912230452481,0.4034355228339961,-0.0016484820779155641,0.004094514584098973,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.00297337158573866,0.0009554358655843718,3.1120577454145093,0.001915870558645727,0.0010982577223017896,0.004848485449175531,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,0.0012638431061395422,0.000551312690862724,2.29242520095413,0.022108573927240638,0.00018185099451508086,0.0023458352177640036,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.0011040124167593023,0.000671169363009403,1.6449088376279701,0.10033396888991186,-0.000213207317841386,0.0024212321513599907,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,-0.000374075625344806,0.0006240240262932189,-0.599457087520912,0.5490173337592981,-0.0015987691343166853,0.0008506178836270731,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.0014427145672953937,0.0005914193036708658,-2.439410682641984,0.014901334553590662,-0.0026034188859878245,-0.00028201024860296316,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.00037319313149012295,0.001069509477105585,-0.3489385923910614,0.7272161314920533,-0.0024721849318148983,0.0017257986688346523,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.005449759619718737,0.0020072516726825167,2.7150355353474973,0.006752347295678529,0.0015103790977704932,0.009389140141666981,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,0.0005087375882558505,0.0018372418968146127,0.27690288858418344,0.7819175581764253,-0.0030969861188995737,0.004114461295411274,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.0017545343972236362,0.0007349359000081249,-2.387329829995023,0.017174523041477263,-0.00319690069776,-0.0003121680966872728,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,-0.0006844544808482739,0.0007173678680769895,-0.9541192340870455,0.34027666315269545,-0.0020923422136293595,0.0007234332519328115,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.0006105576609314272,0.0009487234612208711,0.6435570383657709,0.5200248624420762,-0.0012513826102923272,0.0024724979321551813,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,3.0301818956919844e-05,0.0008260250017042484,0.036683900480495586,0.9707450909319641,-0.001590833610466964,0.0016514372483808035,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.0007143676495553629,0.0006593484819255202,1.0834447475622726,0.27889804293988574,-0.0005796527277709674,0.002008388026881693,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.001737845148493905,0.0006981677572594438,2.489151254013167,0.012982547781897447,0.0003676390595262263,0.0031080512374615835,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,0.0010671002215603346,0.0007819569905320052,1.364653343445823,0.1726993678332891,-0.0004675484622224655,0.0026017489053431347,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.00045362401153946596,0.000718535752423832,-0.6313172448403006,0.5279916529263375,-0.001863803804110787,0.0009565557810318553,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0004827125825773821,0.0007715370042274632,-0.625650590875703,0.5317010219154561,-0.0019969112691596703,0.0010314861040049061,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0007521801790357521,0.0007191434348121635,1.0459390194283253,0.2958669287727589,-0.0006591922353660569,0.0021635525934375613,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,0.0009241977571252911,0.0008200608401714168,1.1269868183586313,0.2600451365394332,-0.0006852325622259774,0.00253362807647656,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,0.0006122673954056753,0.0008700687391074602,0.7037000272343489,0.4817996159783666,-0.001095307140584323,0.0023198419313956737,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.0035465474498485475,0.0010119001326928825,3.5048393959692707,0.000479169017918446,0.0015606182676050988,0.0055324766320919965,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_firstcut.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,-0.002253311623153832,0.0032075704302996218,-0.7024979410797687,0.48259201396536877,-0.008550446180408903,0.004043822934101238,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,-0.00867267898613712,0.00245752646240401,-3.529027710917628,0.0004431513252509678,-0.013497319675422788,-0.003848038296851452,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,-0.010289003249053701,0.0020559401496703066,-5.004524694312556,7.02023004395258e-07,-0.014325245646676659,-0.006252760851430743,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,-0.00530744830343835,0.002085298775288127,-2.545174037569277,0.011126411526531488,-0.009401327850408087,-0.0012135687564686134,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,-0.005760757053488481,0.002130276979986837,-2.7042291249488493,0.007005323388521001,-0.009942938264688575,-0.001578575842288387,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.013010682600534628,0.002019988978369408,-6.440967124007388,2.1497004176751489e-10,-0.01697634529676299,-0.009045019904306267,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.006623691503957036,0.003419026461533928,-1.9373033752378013,0.053092649549126625,-0.013335958670319361,8.85756624052882e-05,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.026162117223121114,0.004693955400184186,5.573576012693802,3.509927481992747e-08,0.016946896730533893,0.035377337715708335,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,-0.0002412302759736918,0.0063860226453249175,-0.037774729181439995,0.9698775924244989,-0.012778334217143453,0.012295873665196069,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.01155498833477535,0.0021016729821107184,-5.497995374699364,5.3095872143416045e-08,-0.015681013889407514,-0.007428962780143188,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,0.0016935474026374354,0.002650174029238453,0.6390325253938469,0.5230016791598338,-0.0035093009291132984,0.00689639573438817,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.007757456875089256,0.0026130880896097497,2.968693212423539,0.003088337463158064,0.0026274160333372275,0.012887497716841284,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,0.0003186396449352228,0.002256411933662606,0.14121519221803053,0.887738797295146,-0.004111170977038325,0.0047484502669087715,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.000716941232520684,0.0022669084885021625,0.31626386162345527,0.7518923999991016,-0.00373347633157576,0.005167358796617128,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.012044059170710678,0.002581850242271626,4.664894568057433,3.670909135999878e-06,0.00697534478530361,0.017112773556117747,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,-0.0026366535173581356,0.003416143476658753,-0.771821656605882,0.44046915629469785,-0.009343260778792412,0.004069953744076141,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0073299807665459125,0.0030081619516677087,-2.436697519720376,0.015059372684890215,-0.013235634591237494,-0.0014243269418543307,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.001219092030632005,0.0028990344188345413,-0.4205165770753766,0.6742315411008217,-0.006910505584350789,0.004472321523086778,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.004113745409527339,0.0026978353371197444,1.5248319098374792,0.12773294100431376,-0.001182672081630821,0.0094101629006855,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,-0.0037831710900687074,0.003128017785295974,-1.209446796579113,0.22688170585806477,-0.009924127093848734,0.0023577849137113196,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,-0.00513858213436243,0.003192518676607059,-1.6095699524062317,0.10792291265824483,-0.011406166937252209,0.0011290026685273477,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.014907721347740521,0.003974106570501226,3.7512132810923378,0.00018989164639227063,0.00710571532382913,0.022709727371651913,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_main.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.004215101408807976,0.0014775131216297702,2.852835177638565,0.004431309638764924,0.0013153721464117512,0.007114830671204201,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.0010227046741625755,0.0011174174077426854,0.9152396115150553,0.36030830882734266,-0.0011703099990122312,0.0032157193473373825,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,0.00028534845977386096,0.0006249287751846971,0.45660957072992275,0.6480606627853527,-0.000941120686109348,0.00151181760565707,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.000980475815802045,0.0006893409192910907,1.4223380454628367,0.15527080920023573,-0.0003724069479263759,0.002333358579530466,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,-0.00036610756836122376,0.0006081926614645356,-0.6019598583771664,0.5473508024359699,-0.0015597308477795636,0.000827515711057116,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.0018006764920446422,0.0005893715584719233,-3.0552483677924602,0.002314299027061484,-0.0029573619586616643,-0.0006439910254276201,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.0006617304194695431,0.0011967411281396782,-0.5529436600028915,0.5804377926056974,-0.003010423786708045,0.001686962947768959,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.008859857232535049,0.0020538370264469486,4.313807336438095,1.780164325082545e-05,0.0048290494931007115,0.012890664971969387,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,-0.0011443238750779607,0.002048587393557327,-0.55859168062675,0.5765778364522813,-0.005164828819982744,0.0028761810698268225,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.002429550039956297,0.0006711172367992905,-3.6201574132462593,0.00031067260075867686,-0.003746667472997298,-0.0011124326069152958,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,-0.0007572458900792266,0.000836050796435241,-0.9057414852159423,0.3653124445554943,-0.0023980576864569073,0.0008835659062984538,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.0006705568621060159,0.0010520099523562063,0.6374054357605241,0.5240211203227876,-0.0013940908208969266,0.0027352045451089586,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,-0.00043311041138595336,0.0008388835255243693,-0.5162938574997342,0.6057746163005977,-0.0020794816490382574,0.0012132608262663508,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.00030700482908803585,0.0007334589153298548,0.418571269189588,0.6756282565063798,-0.0011324627792952814,0.0017464724374713532,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.0044655975201398825,0.000771004017304119,5.791925100149573,9.579276705196094e-09,0.002952444859989083,0.005978750180290682,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,-0.0005859737835928647,0.0010176667015045502,-0.5758012743529318,0.5648918739921045,-0.0025832202855149158,0.0014112727183291864,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0010953909609043386,0.0007646260408998784,-1.4325839067881958,0.15232020335128382,-0.0025960263685559874,0.00040524444674731007,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0007322588652560102,0.0008855170314921977,-0.8269280422783852,0.4084946228660109,-0.0024701518226706957,0.001005634092158675,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0005923864022707967,0.0007228583947793405,0.8195054613035634,0.41271266471535295,-0.0008262768970427964,0.00201104970158439,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,0.0004822650718576879,0.0008257669381775434,0.5840208048557145,0.5593510509267317,-0.0011383638887240658,0.0021028940324394414,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,0.0003803826413688817,0.0009743428130862273,0.3903991862617851,0.6963327570034039,-0.0015318375110958957,0.002292602793833659,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.005858402459977514,0.001077127776530718,5.438911322894886,6.890866011133312e-08,0.0037444591810842187,0.007972345738870809,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_main_10km.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.0059230003631768535,0.0014501598501644153,4.084377568793757,4.8088651988020814e-05,0.00307695392804572,0.008769046798307987,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.002246064680045967,0.0017014308647038468,1.3201034062802897,0.18713245129725786,-0.0010931197874894235,0.005585249147581357,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,-0.0007426062836961843,0.0009210054045383184,-0.8062995939404264,0.4202807824809762,-0.0025501478095670055,0.0010649352421746366,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.0017824588553019445,0.0012775580129360737,1.3952077614115634,0.1632935928131254,-0.0007248436520579772,0.004289761362661866,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,0.0009258531071489162,0.0011889845944078466,0.7786922652349599,0.4363634458031782,-0.0014076174864250475,0.0032593237007228796,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.001122705965497383,0.0009648283345023457,-1.1636328716200794,0.24487783426979925,-0.00301625324693162,0.0007708413159368541,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-2.489703061698866e-05,0.0019959209125728,-0.01247395648803322,0.9900502149240655,-0.003942040094112683,0.0038922460328787056,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.01802860780468989,0.005456857282500027,3.303844478855454,0.0009909025914196512,0.007319120009866608,0.028738095599513173,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,0.0011323914385027512,0.004411806751990172,0.25667294651832334,0.7974892750548825,-0.007526107055691185,0.009790889932696688,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.0014775262833336994,0.001059357396126011,-1.3947382523942344,0.16343513776617669,-0.00355659387056031,0.0006015413038929108,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,0.0012381922398061254,0.0010150583554508644,1.2198237009301307,0.2228477560334312,-0.0007539351892172797,0.0032303196688295305,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.003193013570647791,0.0016155022097704057,1.9764835673617434,0.048401626732359926,2.2470471869924773e-05,0.006363556669425657,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,-0.0004455005558433049,0.0015466838118344812,-0.28803595953778577,0.773384800222499,-0.003480982436304606,0.0025899813246179964,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.0009200855929347508,0.0010655778952492435,0.8634615986657068,0.3881112410754519,-0.0011711901859283915,0.0030113613717978934,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.006624514273546138,0.0016977944349705137,3.9018353088553908,0.00010250008547285638,0.003292466569504775,0.0099565619775875,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,-0.001227878702190878,0.0013837017047779745,-0.8873868536484174,0.3751051270431094,-0.003943496089971775,0.0014877386855900187,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.003845919197050464,0.0009847654302426025,-3.905416537726147,0.000101018606369907,-0.005778594509957916,-0.001913243884143012,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0010406601877600446,0.0016504240892302247,-0.6305410800477467,0.528498945451505,-0.004279740069247367,0.0021984196937272784,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,-0.00023462921052500707,0.001145307933767133,-0.2048612461395142,0.8377263459923285,-0.0024823811129485837,0.0020131226918985693,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,0.0001021710671190257,0.0012195535445495463,0.08377743443545446,0.9332518151402716,-0.002291293362008047,0.002495635496246099,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,-0.0013372648318918288,0.001631022358820662,-0.8198936235667306,0.4124914445057253,-0.004538267376138536,0.0018637377123548785,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.008119771440051705,0.0021851876485362055,3.715823419325524,0.0002148974811047033,0.0038311783470185877,0.012408364533084821,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_main_50km.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.004026767254569008,0.0011666972838340526,3.45142421291671,0.0005832971308137314,0.0017370371636713632,0.006316497345466653,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.0010442977390723715,0.001004425528758753,1.0396965321688825,0.2987570712125982,-0.0009269619776784729,0.003015557455823216,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,-0.0002244025228656547,0.000606332331372998,-0.37009823038384015,0.7113954189684155,-0.001414374766279524,0.0009655697205482145,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.0013031334757010074,0.0005432861043060605,2.3986136685117323,0.016657667724068403,0.00023689413647144707,0.0023693728149305677,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,-0.0006649290087108227,0.0005125796158513156,-1.2972209353399244,0.1948839560001714,-0.0016709045832305038,0.00034104656580885833,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.002193031330420316,0.0005313803841367693,-4.127046078268224,4.011761267097569e-05,-0.003235904809367895,-0.0011501578514727365,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.0008448168284253167,0.0007703137449999803,-1.0967178424491677,0.2730548881562447,-0.002356614777900434,0.0006669811210498008,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.006327999439092483,0.0012835046990798528,4.930250308883979,9.758227128564556e-07,0.0038090261184091697,0.008846972759775796,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,-0.0019753788727409007,0.001695574704674355,-1.1650202537789591,0.24431609389953235,-0.005303070191177174,0.0013523124456953726,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.0027656653943448563,0.0006032599602154897,-4.584533330136707,5.185538859198147e-06,-0.003949607881122424,-0.001581722907567288,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,-0.001044748141578079,0.0007403986690173751,-1.4110616149062278,0.15856822241094504,-0.002497835532112182,0.00040833924895602417,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.0006091896331953549,0.0010426138276962696,0.5842907671207501,0.5591695171665756,-0.0014370174571450417,0.0026553967235357512,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,-0.0004596260950852927,0.000697603749806881,-0.6588641405848692,0.510149687296821,-0.0018287252775284445,0.0009094730873578592,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.001255815998630382,0.0007912667805313888,1.5870955656536183,0.11283838682105363,-0.0002971038396300167,0.0028087358368907803,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.005365115344934985,0.000646930568812436,8.29318570427685,4.440892098500626e-16,0.004095466044592516,0.006634764645277454,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,-0.0015078233034196598,0.0009421571434969405,-1.6003947046701517,0.10985813361041963,-0.003356876688312909,0.00034123008147358925,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0016698019002221135,0.0006910322786179253,-2.416387702701445,0.01587125929692168,-0.003026004082276809,-0.0003135997181674178,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0011029189575430063,0.0008679195591660826,-1.270761726585257,0.20413818894962343,-0.0028062755682402036,0.000600437653154191,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,8.030803388821721e-05,0.0007665279664787575,0.10476856344476605,0.9165825424425988,-0.0014240600440018469,0.0015846761117782812,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,-0.00012070893808373365,0.0007051211633294018,-0.17118893086937984,0.8641132678656289,-0.0015045616030169376,0.0012631437268494701,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,0.00040847721687671697,0.0008401118944705289,0.4862176331096409,0.6269299344729715,-0.001240304786085251,0.0020572592198386847,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.00546288610094891,0.0008642617760165714,6.320869732464212,4.0683700852639504e-10,0.0037667081614112877,0.007159064040486532,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_main_cluster_region.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,0.004215101408807976,0.0011105004389981054,3.795677390826468,0.0015871415438923897,0.0018609456433883627,0.006569257174227589,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.0010227046741625755,0.0007381790322520435,1.385442595196044,0.18492851425402645,-0.000542164968082549,0.0025875743164077,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,0.00028534845977386096,0.0005466195557297426,0.5220238770874523,0.6088056293219593,-0.0008734332330755883,0.0014441301526233103,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.000980475815802045,0.0004760300519204318,2.0596931051864162,0.05608280535404808,-2.8662813852647212e-05,0.0019896144454567373,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,-0.00036610756836122376,0.0008800962735752625,-0.41598581809006563,0.6829464794475899,-0.0022318283225383016,0.0014996131858158541,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.0018006764920446422,0.0003650199303822953,-4.9330908867325265,0.00014981296145677447,-0.0025744841767834435,-0.001026868807305841,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-0.0006617304194695431,0.0007978544113173636,-0.8293874296902592,0.419087591584439,-0.0023531062140282766,0.0010296453750891906,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.008859857232535049,0.0021226047170601163,4.174049535142026,0.0007163448906464254,0.004360136244687277,0.01335957822038282,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,-0.0011443238750779607,0.001216765500013902,-0.9404637747083445,0.36096269040581674,-0.003723751506467031,0.0014351037563111097,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.002429550039956297,0.0007152872422805438,-3.3966075393854145,0.0036864609401623394,-0.003945891255332179,-0.0009132088245804146,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,-0.0007572458900792266,0.0008065240222125758,-0.9389006021194978,0.3617404816411456,-0.002467000438716907,0.0009525086585584538,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,0.0006705568621060159,0.0011077376570983572,0.6053390510010228,0.553443756996711,-0.0016777420673237285,0.0030188557915357605,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,-0.00043311041138595336,0.0011201595983114428,-0.386650627320281,0.7041087019972272,-0.002807742679819933,0.0019415218570480264,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,0.00030700482908803585,0.0004448229159388001,0.6901731410129832,0.4999749702751406,-0.0006359776276256772,0.001249987285801749,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.0044655975201398825,0.000778274616204633,5.737817252626078,3.054214228237484e-05,0.0028157290369982928,0.006115466003281472,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,-0.0005859737835928647,0.0006850889658765901,-0.8553250932060994,0.4049978379260153,-0.0020382975127926574,0.000866349945606928,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,-0.0010953909609043386,0.000967063047584934,-1.1326986008201643,0.2740302884972716,-0.0031454730401606966,0.0009546911183520193,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0007322588652560102,0.00043426359025173654,-1.6862082884534022,0.11115369429773048,-0.001652856551489514,0.0001883388209774936,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0005923864022707967,0.001085471404224616,0.5457411406373766,0.592771955602363,-0.0017087101796981032,0.002893482984239697,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,0.0004822650718576879,0.0006778027325088086,0.7115124338207363,0.48701168924246074,-0.0009546125326143819,0.0019191426763297578,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,0.0003803826413688817,0.0009058654327564374,0.4199107589428862,0.6801351759024481,-0.001539966289912845,0.0023007315726506087,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.005858402459977514,0.0008968688181404485,6.532061703431968,6.907873155936883e-06,0.003957125499695274,0.007759679420259754,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/eventstudy_placebo_permuted.csv
+23 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +term,Estimate,Std. Error,t value,Pr(>|t|),2.5%,97.5%,k | ||||
| 2 | +cc_m7,-0.00043388091512943234,0.0003994369522400346,-1.0862312880574436,0.2776643253552753,-0.0012178056071925217,0.0003500437769336571,-7 | ||||
| 3 | +cc_m6,0.00043346290644795176,0.00038224281076675053,1.1339988463836836,0.25709367342049894,-0.00031671700565889197,0.0011836428185547955,-6 | ||||
| 4 | +cc_m5,0.0001395454207849452,0.0003876009352722815,0.36002343670021714,0.7189131460129701,-0.0006211502087072792,0.0009002410502771697,-5 | ||||
| 5 | +cc_m4,0.00036955860595780143,0.0004060079159697215,0.9102251247371287,0.3629448230181944,-0.00042726209056723137,0.0011663793024828343,-4 | ||||
| 6 | +cc_m3,0.0006914418697872922,0.0003910413394990216,1.7682065805961218,0.07736138504912615,-7.60058085799675e-05,0.0014588895481545518,-3 | ||||
| 7 | +cc_m2,-0.0007141658480046691,0.00038262251770676764,-1.8665024010740214,0.062292553536627215,-0.0014650909631888892,3.6759267179550977e-05,-2 | ||||
| 8 | +cc_m1,-1.8992587638240582e-05,0.0003450784297940834,-0.055038466616339696,0.956119899239892,-0.0006962346412261614,0.0006582494659496802,-1 | ||||
| 9 | +cc_p0,0.00010863729289439367,0.00035649270432439365,0.3047391757996209,0.760634489230978,-0.000591006122400593,0.0008082807081893804,0 | ||||
| 10 | +cc_p1,0.00039106585140691677,0.0004089556353041864,0.956254951997512,0.3391974059333491,-0.0004115399632915848,0.0011936716661054183,1 | ||||
| 11 | +cc_p2,-0.000405229592442749,0.00043894575663027264,-0.9231883127283014,0.3561537888863606,-0.0012666932481438,0.0004562340632583019,2 | ||||
| 12 | +cc_p3,-0.0004165490353688006,0.0004136983225856391,-1.0068908009231083,0.3142549070196816,-0.0012284627261809524,0.0003953646554433513,3 | ||||
| 13 | +cc_p4,6.429215678624721e-05,0.0004992382620121989,0.12878050758192133,0.8975597855625579,-0.000915500019724355,0.0010440843332968496,4 | ||||
| 14 | +cc_p5,-0.0009302031948889564,0.0004505307192120445,-2.064683173027213,0.0392358287718757,-0.0018144032002781062,-4.600318949980655e-05,5 | ||||
| 15 | +cc_p6,-0.00015780386058557454,0.0005412686740240564,-0.2915444180657701,0.7707014211508754,-0.0012200838430162467,0.0009044761218450976,6 | ||||
| 16 | +cc_p7,0.0010124176806929237,0.0005928375398147001,1.7077489408133117,0.08802400944160049,-0.0001510700317894232,0.0021759053931752707,7 | ||||
| 17 | +cc_p8,0.00012560941057137033,0.0006111894595470374,0.2055163233090792,0.8372147101710321,-0.001073895307709413,0.0013251141288521536,8 | ||||
| 18 | +cc_p9,0.0009044490893160293,0.0006934232097302164,1.3043247999557366,0.19245265616263119,-0.0004564454726635474,0.002265343651295606,9 | ||||
| 19 | +cc_p10,-0.0004898603597373944,0.000676027197213349,-0.7246163493963664,0.46887368880017677,-0.0018166139548411375,0.0008368932353663487,10 | ||||
| 20 | +cc_p11,0.0012856276615492309,0.0007258467519026187,1.7712108763720331,0.07686030325450632,-0.00013890051061726913,0.0027101558337157307,11 | ||||
| 21 | +cc_p12,-0.0006290408228413749,0.0007458046994185404,-0.8434390710219453,0.39920457437919143,-0.002092737949639865,0.0008346563039571149,12 | ||||
| 22 | +cc_p13,-3.7509686360621424e-05,0.0007753908066040889,-0.0483752013064216,0.9614278373725291,-0.001559271746397534,0.0014842523736762912,13 | ||||
| 23 | +cc_p14,0.0008650041885663454,0.0008265418431387069,1.0465340572251995,0.2955924205445539,-0.0007571455805676758,0.0024871539577003667,14 | ||||
added
results/_pre_final_backup/competition/summary.json
+1133 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,1133 @@ | |||||
| 1 | +{ | ||||
| 2 | + "main_25km": { | ||||
| 3 | + "n": 1663764, | ||||
| 4 | + "base_rate": 0.014376438004428513, | ||||
| 5 | + "fe": "mkt_week + mmy_week", | ||||
| 6 | + "cluster": "dealer_id", | ||||
| 7 | + "seconds": 5.5, | ||||
| 8 | + "leads_joint": { | ||||
| 9 | + "stat": 32.57419663757699, | ||||
| 10 | + "df": 7, | ||||
| 11 | + "p": 3.1775989878043764e-05, | ||||
| 12 | + "sum": 0.0036751158786710487 | ||||
| 13 | + }, | ||||
| 14 | + "lags_joint": { | ||||
| 15 | + "stat": 99.7512548498658, | ||||
| 16 | + "df": 15, | ||||
| 17 | + "p": 1.454285824475074e-14, | ||||
| 18 | + "sum": 0.014438599193091213 | ||||
| 19 | + }, | ||||
| 20 | + "lag0_7_sum": { | ||||
| 21 | + "stat": 75.29581763209484, | ||||
| 22 | + "df": 8, | ||||
| 23 | + "p": 4.30362192792765e-13, | ||||
| 24 | + "sum": 0.009538786227369546 | ||||
| 25 | + }, | ||||
| 26 | + "coef": { | ||||
| 27 | + "cc_m7": { | ||||
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| 29 | + "se": 0.0014775131216297702, | ||||
| 30 | + "lo": 0.0013153721464117512, | ||||
| 31 | + "hi": 0.007114830671204201 | ||||
| 32 | + }, | ||||
| 33 | + "cc_m6": { | ||||
| 34 | + "b": 0.0010227046741625755, | ||||
| 35 | + "se": 0.0011174174077426854, | ||||
| 36 | + "lo": -0.0011703099990122312, | ||||
| 37 | + "hi": 0.0032157193473373825 | ||||
| 38 | + }, | ||||
| 39 | + "cc_m5": { | ||||
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| 42 | + "lo": -0.000941120686109348, | ||||
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| 44 | + }, | ||||
| 45 | + "cc_m4": { | ||||
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| 47 | + "se": 0.0006893409192910907, | ||||
| 48 | + "lo": -0.0003724069479263759, | ||||
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| 50 | + }, | ||||
| 51 | + "cc_m3": { | ||||
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| 55 | + "hi": 0.000827515711057116 | ||||
| 56 | + }, | ||||
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| 60 | + "lo": -0.0029573619586616643, | ||||
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| 62 | + }, | ||||
| 63 | + "cc_m1": { | ||||
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| 65 | + "se": 0.0011967411281396782, | ||||
| 66 | + "lo": -0.003010423786708045, | ||||
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| 68 | + }, | ||||
| 69 | + "cc_p0": { | ||||
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| 71 | + "se": 0.0020538370264469486, | ||||
| 72 | + "lo": 0.0048290494931007115, | ||||
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| 74 | + }, | ||||
| 75 | + "cc_p1": { | ||||
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| 78 | + "lo": -0.005164828819982744, | ||||
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| 80 | + }, | ||||
| 81 | + "cc_p2": { | ||||
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| 83 | + "se": 0.0006711172367992905, | ||||
| 84 | + "lo": -0.003746667472997298, | ||||
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| 86 | + }, | ||||
| 87 | + "cc_p3": { | ||||
| 88 | + "b": -0.0007572458900792266, | ||||
| 89 | + "se": 0.000836050796435241, | ||||
| 90 | + "lo": -0.0023980576864569073, | ||||
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| 92 | + }, | ||||
| 93 | + "cc_p4": { | ||||
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| 95 | + "se": 0.0010520099523562063, | ||||
| 96 | + "lo": -0.0013940908208969266, | ||||
| 97 | + "hi": 0.0027352045451089586 | ||||
| 98 | + }, | ||||
| 99 | + "cc_p5": { | ||||
| 100 | + "b": -0.00043311041138595336, | ||||
| 101 | + "se": 0.0008388835255243693, | ||||
| 102 | + "lo": -0.0020794816490382574, | ||||
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| 104 | + }, | ||||
| 105 | + "cc_p6": { | ||||
| 106 | + "b": 0.00030700482908803585, | ||||
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| 108 | + "lo": -0.0011324627792952814, | ||||
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| 111 | + "cc_p7": { | ||||
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| 113 | + "se": 0.000771004017304119, | ||||
| 114 | + "lo": 0.002952444859989083, | ||||
| 115 | + "hi": 0.005978750180290682 | ||||
| 116 | + }, | ||||
| 117 | + "cc_p8": { | ||||
| 118 | + "b": -0.0005859737835928647, | ||||
| 119 | + "se": 0.0010176667015045502, | ||||
| 120 | + "lo": -0.0025832202855149158, | ||||
| 121 | + "hi": 0.0014112727183291864 | ||||
| 122 | + }, | ||||
| 123 | + "cc_p9": { | ||||
| 124 | + "b": -0.0010953909609043386, | ||||
| 125 | + "se": 0.0007646260408998784, | ||||
| 126 | + "lo": -0.0025960263685559874, | ||||
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| \ No newline at end of file | |||||
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