1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering2\begin{threeparttable}3\caption{Rolling-origin forecasts of next-week promotion state}\label{tab:fpromo}4\small5\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}6\toprule7Model & Origins & N & Brier & AUC \\8\midrule9base\_rate & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0568 & 0.5000 \\10hist\_rate & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0572 & 0.6778 \\11lightgbm & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0313 & 0.9359 \\12logit & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0439 & 0.8940 \\13persist & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0510 & 0.7519 \\14\bottomrule15\end{tabular}16\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\footnotesize17\item Promotion = modal price $\le 0.9\times$ trailing 8-week mode. Brier: lower is better; AUC: higher is better. Base rate $\approx$ 5\%.18\end{tablenotes}19\end{threeparttable}20\end{table}21