# PROGRESS.md — WP39 wp39_uqo

# Phase 0 — Discovery and feasibility (2026-11-02) — GATE PASSED

• Inspected the UQO Research workspace (Recherche-UQO/, 39 papers, harmonisation standard); no wp39 existed; created finance/invisible-balance-sheet/ from the template; git initialised on a dedicated repository (no other paper touched).
• Probed FinData: /health ok, 64 datasets, OpenAPI 3.1 (45 routes), bars schema v1, fundamentals (67 metrics, 5,451 entities, 2012→2026), earnings events (Postgres), coverage endpoints, export throughput (≈ 1 s per symbol-decade; 12-year cap per request). Created least-privilege key wp39_uqo.
• Verified external public sources: SEC company_tickers.json + submissions (CIK/SIC), Kenneth French daily factors.
• Verified 94 bibliography entries on Crossref; wrote docs/NOVELTY_MEMO.md, literature/RELATED_WORK_MATRIX.csv.
• Outputs: DATA_AUDIT.md (viability = YES with survivorship + PIT caveats), configs/*.yaml, docs/API_INTEGRATION.md, docs/COMPUTE_BUDGET.md, docs/PIT_PROTOCOL.md, docs/RESEARCH_DESIGN.md (frozen), DECISIONS.md D-001…D-010.
• Owner instructions received during the session: (1) the fundamentals API must be used — it is the accounting source; (2) minimise AI usage — no LLM features, no neural models (D-006).
• Blockers: none. Next safe step: Phase 1 gate memo, then code + tests (Phase 2).

# Phase 1 — Research design and novelty — GATE (self-approved under the autonomous mandate, D-010)

• docs/RESEARCH_DESIGN.md frozen 2026-11-02 14:40 ET; hypotheses H1–H5 with null/alternative, primary endpoint (H1, h = 20, log loss, binary adverse operating-income surprise), decision rules, splits, inference, power plan.
• Owner review pending; nothing in Phases 2–5 depends on test-period data until the Phase 3 gate.

# Phase 2 — Data acquisition and verification — IN PROGRESS