1\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small2\caption{Final (held-out): CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)}3\label{tab:final_cmp_crps_heldout}4\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}5\begin{tabular}{lcccc}6\toprule7Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\8\midrule9Seasonal volatility & -2.47\% (-21.6) & -2.75\% (-24.6) & -2.79\% (-20.7) & -2.96\% (-16.0) \\10EWMA-$t$ & -3.36\% (-30.8) & -3.42\% (-28.7) & -3.17\% (-23.8) & -2.85\% (-15.5) \\11HAR-RV & -2.81\% (-30.2) & -3.75\% (-35.6) & -3.75\% (-28.9) & -3.88\% (-21.1) \\12GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.07\% (-24.0) & -3.33\% (-21.9) & -2.99\% (-21.3) & -2.55\% (-12.6) \\13Ridge & -3.07\% (-25.3) & -3.77\% (-32.7) & -3.83\% (-27.5) & -3.99\% (-20.5) \\14Elastic net & -3.07\% (-25.3) & -3.77\% (-32.5) & -3.82\% (-27.4) & -4.00\% (-20.5) \\15LightGBM & -2.24\% (-16.1) & -3.56\% (-21.5) & -3.53\% (-21.1) & -3.67\% (-16.3) \\16MLP (1m) & -3.76\% (-40.0) & -3.74\% (-39.9) & -3.69\% (-32.5) & -3.67\% (-23.8) \\17TCN (1m) & -3.86\% (-37.0) & -3.76\% (-38.6) & -3.65\% (-32.2) & -3.57\% (-23.8) \\18MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -3.95\% (-33.0) & -3.88\% (-38.1) & -3.81\% (-32.2) & -3.81\% (-23.3) \\19MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.94\% (-33.0) & -3.88\% (-38.0) & -3.83\% (-31.9) & -3.81\% (-23.1) \\20MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -3.91\% (-33.1) & -3.84\% (-40.5) & -3.81\% (-33.0) & -3.81\% (-24.4) \\21\bottomrule22\end{tabular}23\end{adjustbox}24\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage}25\end{table}