WP47: project skeleton, brief, pre-registered design, external calendars, FinData client
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| 1 | +data/cache/ | |
| 2 | +*.parquet | |
| 3 | +paper/*.aux | |
| 4 | +paper/*.log | |
| 5 | +paper/*.bbl | |
| 6 | +paper/*.blg | |
| 7 | +paper/*.out | |
| 8 | +paper/*.fls | |
| 9 | +paper/*.fdb_latexmk | |
| 10 | +paper/*.synctex.gz | |
| 11 | +.venv/ | |
| 12 | +__pycache__/ | |
| 13 | +*.pyc | |
| 14 | +.DS_Store | |
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CLAUDE.md
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| 1 | +# CLAUDE.md — UQO Research WP47: The Yield Curve at One-Minute Resolution | |
| 2 | + | |
| 3 | +**Project ID:** `wp47_uqo` · **Folder (laptop):** `~/Desktop/wp47-nelson-siegel-intraday` · **Compute:** M3U96a `~/wp47_uqo` | |
| 4 | +**Working title:** *The Yield Curve at One-Minute Resolution: Nelson–Siegel Factor-Mimicking Portfolios from Treasury Futures* | |
| 5 | +**PI:** Simon-Pierre Boucher (UQO) · **Language:** English · Brief: `docs/BRIEF.md` · Design: `docs/DESIGN.md` | |
| 6 | + | |
| 7 | +## Core idea | |
| 8 | +Daily Nelson–Siegel (NS) factors (level, slope, curvature) are projected on the daily returns of six Treasury futures | |
| 9 | +(ZT, ZF, ZN, TN, US, UB) to obtain factor-mimicking portfolios. Applying the portfolio weights to one-minute futures returns | |
| 10 | +yields minute-by-minute NS factor changes over the 23-hour CME session, 2008–2026. We validate the construction out of | |
| 11 | +sample, then study (i) the intraday anatomy of level/slope/curvature around FOMC, CPI and Employment releases, (ii) the | |
| 12 | +intraday periodicity and realized (co)variation of the factors, (iii) HAR forecasts of factor realized variance. | |
| 13 | + | |
| 14 | +## Hard rules | |
| 15 | +1. Never fabricate data, estimates, references, DOIs or p-values. Every number in the paper comes from code in `results/`. | |
| 16 | +2. Pre-registration: `docs/DESIGN.md` §Hypotheses is frozen (git tag `design-frozen`) before any event-study or forecast | |
| 17 | + result is inspected. Validation (§H1) is inspected first by construction. | |
| 18 | +3. Data: FinData OS (FirstRate Data, private licence) is the only intraday source. No raw bars in git, logs, figures or paper | |
| 19 | + (aggregates only). Key: `~/findata-secrets/api-key-wp47.txt` (node) / `~/Desktop/Cluster/secrets/findata/api-key-wp47.txt` | |
| 20 | + (laptop) or `$FINDATA_API_KEY`; never logged. | |
| 21 | +4. Public data (FRED CMT yields, Fed GSW parameters, FOMC/BLS/ALFRED calendars) are kept in `data/external/` with download | |
| 22 | + timestamps (`DOWNLOADED_AT.txt`). | |
| 23 | +5. Units: yields and factors in percentage points; futures returns in percent; realized variances in (pp)² per day. | |
| 24 | +6. Remote-first for computation (M3U96a), laptop = LaTeX + mirror. `rsync` code to the node, results back. | |
| 25 | +7. No external publication (SSRN, web) without explicit authorization. Private `gitsrv` mirror is routine. | |
| 26 | + | |
| 27 | +## Layout | |
| 28 | +`src/wp47/` (library) · `scripts/NN_*.py` (pipeline, in order) · `data/external/` (public inputs) · `data/cache/` (node only, | |
| 29 | +Parquet, gitignored) · `results/{metrics,tables,figures}` · `paper/` (LaTeX, template Recherche-UQO) · `docs/` | |
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data/external/DOWNLOADED_AT.txt
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| 1 | +2026-11-09T19:08:56Z | |
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data/external/bls/cpi_release_dates_alfred_rid10.txt
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| 1 | +# Source: ALFRED release page rid=10 (Consumer Price Index, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), "Release Dates" filter list, | |
| 2 | +# extracted 2026-11-09 via Tavily from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=10 . Includes revision releases (e.g. February seasonal-factor updates). | |
| 3 | +2026-10-14 | |
| 4 | +2026-09-11 | |
| 5 | +2026-08-12 | |
| 6 | +2026-07-14 | |
| 7 | +2026-06-10 | |
| 8 | +2026-05-12 | |
| 9 | +2026-04-10 | |
| 10 | +2026-03-11 | |
| 11 | +2026-02-13 | |
| 12 | +2026-01-13 | |
| 13 | +2025-12-18 | |
| 14 | +2025-10-24 | |
| 15 | +2025-09-11 | |
| 16 | +2025-08-12 | |
| 17 | +2025-07-15 | |
| 18 | +2025-06-11 | |
| 19 | +2025-05-13 | |
| 20 | +2025-04-10 | |
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| 23 | +2025-01-15 | |
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| 31 | +2024-05-15 | |
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| 35 | +2024-02-09 | |
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| 255 | +2007-01-18 | |
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data/external/bls/empsit_release_dates_alfred_rid50.txt
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| 1 | +# Source: ALFRED release page rid=50 (Employment Situation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), "Release Dates" filter list, | |
| 2 | +# extracted 2026-11-09 via Tavily from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=50 . Includes benchmark/revision releases | |
| 3 | +# (e.g. 2024-08-21 preliminary benchmark, 2024-01-10, 2013-05-06, 2012-12-12) which are not 08:30 Employment Situation releases. | |
| 4 | +2026-11-06 | |
| 5 | +2026-10-02 | |
| 6 | +2026-09-04 | |
| 7 | +2026-08-07 | |
| 8 | +2026-07-02 | |
| 9 | +2026-06-05 | |
| 10 | +2026-05-08 | |
| 11 | +2026-04-03 | |
| 12 | +2026-03-06 | |
| 13 | +2026-02-11 | |
| 14 | +2026-01-09 | |
| 15 | +2025-12-16 | |
| 16 | +2025-11-20 | |
| 17 | +2025-09-05 | |
| 18 | +2025-08-01 | |
| 19 | +2025-07-03 | |
| 20 | +2025-06-06 | |
| 21 | +2025-05-02 | |
| 22 | +2025-04-04 | |
| 23 | +2025-03-07 | |
| 24 | +2025-02-07 | |
| 25 | +2025-01-10 | |
| 26 | +2024-12-06 | |
| 27 | +2024-11-01 | |
| 28 | +2024-10-04 | |
| 29 | +2024-09-06 | |
| 30 | +2024-08-21 | |
| 31 | +2024-08-02 | |
| 32 | +2024-07-05 | |
| 33 | +2024-06-07 | |
| 34 | +2024-05-03 | |
| 35 | +2024-04-05 | |
| 36 | +2024-03-08 | |
| 37 | +2024-02-02 | |
| 38 | +2024-01-10 | |
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| 40 | +2023-12-08 | |
| 41 | +2023-11-03 | |
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| 44 | +2023-08-04 | |
| 45 | +2023-07-07 | |
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| 244 | +2007-03-09 | |
| 245 | +2007-02-02 | |
| 246 | +2007-01-05 | |
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