WP47: project skeleton, brief, pre-registered design, external calendars, FinData client
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.gitignore
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| 1 | +data/cache/ | ||||
| 2 | +*.parquet | ||||
| 3 | +paper/*.aux | ||||
| 4 | +paper/*.log | ||||
| 5 | +paper/*.bbl | ||||
| 6 | +paper/*.blg | ||||
| 7 | +paper/*.out | ||||
| 8 | +paper/*.fls | ||||
| 9 | +paper/*.fdb_latexmk | ||||
| 10 | +paper/*.synctex.gz | ||||
| 11 | +.venv/ | ||||
| 12 | +__pycache__/ | ||||
| 13 | +*.pyc | ||||
| 14 | +.DS_Store | ||||
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CLAUDE.md
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| 1 | +# CLAUDE.md — UQO Research WP47: The Yield Curve at One-Minute Resolution | ||||
| 2 | + | ||||
| 3 | +**Project ID:** `wp47_uqo` · **Folder (laptop):** `~/Desktop/wp47-nelson-siegel-intraday` · **Compute:** M3U96a `~/wp47_uqo` | ||||
| 4 | +**Working title:** *The Yield Curve at One-Minute Resolution: Nelson–Siegel Factor-Mimicking Portfolios from Treasury Futures* | ||||
| 5 | +**PI:** Simon-Pierre Boucher (UQO) · **Language:** English · Brief: `docs/BRIEF.md` · Design: `docs/DESIGN.md` | ||||
| 6 | + | ||||
| 7 | +## Core idea | ||||
| 8 | +Daily Nelson–Siegel (NS) factors (level, slope, curvature) are projected on the daily returns of six Treasury futures | ||||
| 9 | +(ZT, ZF, ZN, TN, US, UB) to obtain factor-mimicking portfolios. Applying the portfolio weights to one-minute futures returns | ||||
| 10 | +yields minute-by-minute NS factor changes over the 23-hour CME session, 2008–2026. We validate the construction out of | ||||
| 11 | +sample, then study (i) the intraday anatomy of level/slope/curvature around FOMC, CPI and Employment releases, (ii) the | ||||
| 12 | +intraday periodicity and realized (co)variation of the factors, (iii) HAR forecasts of factor realized variance. | ||||
| 13 | + | ||||
| 14 | +## Hard rules | ||||
| 15 | +1. Never fabricate data, estimates, references, DOIs or p-values. Every number in the paper comes from code in `results/`. | ||||
| 16 | +2. Pre-registration: `docs/DESIGN.md` §Hypotheses is frozen (git tag `design-frozen`) before any event-study or forecast | ||||
| 17 | + result is inspected. Validation (§H1) is inspected first by construction. | ||||
| 18 | +3. Data: FinData OS (FirstRate Data, private licence) is the only intraday source. No raw bars in git, logs, figures or paper | ||||
| 19 | + (aggregates only). Key: `~/findata-secrets/api-key-wp47.txt` (node) / `~/Desktop/Cluster/secrets/findata/api-key-wp47.txt` | ||||
| 20 | + (laptop) or `$FINDATA_API_KEY`; never logged. | ||||
| 21 | +4. Public data (FRED CMT yields, Fed GSW parameters, FOMC/BLS/ALFRED calendars) are kept in `data/external/` with download | ||||
| 22 | + timestamps (`DOWNLOADED_AT.txt`). | ||||
| 23 | +5. Units: yields and factors in percentage points; futures returns in percent; realized variances in (pp)² per day. | ||||
| 24 | +6. Remote-first for computation (M3U96a), laptop = LaTeX + mirror. `rsync` code to the node, results back. | ||||
| 25 | +7. No external publication (SSRN, web) without explicit authorization. Private `gitsrv` mirror is routine. | ||||
| 26 | + | ||||
| 27 | +## Layout | ||||
| 28 | +`src/wp47/` (library) · `scripts/NN_*.py` (pipeline, in order) · `data/external/` (public inputs) · `data/cache/` (node only, | ||||
| 29 | +Parquet, gitignored) · `results/{metrics,tables,figures}` · `paper/` (LaTeX, template Recherche-UQO) · `docs/` | ||||
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| 1 | +2026-11-09T19:08:56Z | ||||
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data/external/bls/cpi_release_dates_alfred_rid10.txt
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| 1 | +# Source: ALFRED release page rid=10 (Consumer Price Index, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), "Release Dates" filter list, | ||||
| 2 | +# extracted 2026-11-09 via Tavily from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=10 . Includes revision releases (e.g. February seasonal-factor updates). | ||||
| 3 | +2026-10-14 | ||||
| 4 | +2026-09-11 | ||||
| 5 | +2026-08-12 | ||||
| 6 | +2026-07-14 | ||||
| 7 | +2026-06-10 | ||||
| 8 | +2026-05-12 | ||||
| 9 | +2026-04-10 | ||||
| 10 | +2026-03-11 | ||||
| 11 | +2026-02-13 | ||||
| 12 | +2026-01-13 | ||||
| 13 | +2025-12-18 | ||||
| 14 | +2025-10-24 | ||||
| 15 | +2025-09-11 | ||||
| 16 | +2025-08-12 | ||||
| 17 | +2025-07-15 | ||||
| 18 | +2025-06-11 | ||||
| 19 | +2025-05-13 | ||||
| 20 | +2025-04-10 | ||||
| 21 | +2025-03-12 | ||||
| 22 | +2025-02-12 | ||||
| 23 | +2025-01-15 | ||||
| 24 | +2024-12-11 | ||||
| 25 | +2024-11-13 | ||||
| 26 | +2024-10-10 | ||||
| 27 | +2024-09-11 | ||||
| 28 | +2024-08-14 | ||||
| 29 | +2024-07-11 | ||||
| 30 | +2024-06-12 | ||||
| 31 | +2024-05-15 | ||||
| 32 | +2024-04-10 | ||||
| 33 | +2024-03-12 | ||||
| 34 | +2024-02-13 | ||||
| 35 | +2024-02-09 | ||||
| 36 | +2024-01-11 | ||||
| 37 | +2023-12-12 | ||||
| 38 | +2023-11-14 | ||||
| 39 | +2023-10-12 | ||||
| 40 | +2023-09-13 | ||||
| 41 | +2023-08-10 | ||||
| 42 | +2023-07-12 | ||||
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| 45 | +2023-04-12 | ||||
| 46 | +2023-03-14 | ||||
| 47 | +2023-02-14 | ||||
| 48 | +2023-02-10 | ||||
| 49 | +2023-01-12 | ||||
| 50 | +2022-12-13 | ||||
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| 53 | +2022-09-13 | ||||
| 54 | +2022-08-10 | ||||
| 55 | +2022-07-13 | ||||
| 56 | +2022-06-10 | ||||
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| 58 | +2022-04-12 | ||||
| 59 | +2022-03-10 | ||||
| 60 | +2022-02-10 | ||||
| 61 | +2022-02-08 | ||||
| 62 | +2022-01-12 | ||||
| 63 | +2021-12-10 | ||||
| 64 | +2021-11-10 | ||||
| 65 | +2021-10-13 | ||||
| 66 | +2021-09-14 | ||||
| 67 | +2021-08-11 | ||||
| 68 | +2021-07-13 | ||||
| 69 | +2021-06-10 | ||||
| 70 | +2021-05-12 | ||||
| 71 | +2021-04-13 | ||||
| 72 | +2021-03-10 | ||||
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| 74 | +2021-02-08 | ||||
| 75 | +2021-01-13 | ||||
| 76 | +2020-12-10 | ||||
| 77 | +2020-11-12 | ||||
| 78 | +2020-10-13 | ||||
| 79 | +2020-09-11 | ||||
| 80 | +2020-08-12 | ||||
| 81 | +2020-07-14 | ||||
| 82 | +2020-06-10 | ||||
| 83 | +2020-05-12 | ||||
| 84 | +2020-04-10 | ||||
| 85 | +2020-03-11 | ||||
| 86 | +2020-02-13 | ||||
| 87 | +2020-02-11 | ||||
| 88 | +2020-01-14 | ||||
| 89 | +2019-12-11 | ||||
| 90 | +2019-11-13 | ||||
| 91 | +2019-10-10 | ||||
| 92 | +2019-09-12 | ||||
| 93 | +2019-08-13 | ||||
| 94 | +2019-07-11 | ||||
| 95 | +2019-06-12 | ||||
| 96 | +2019-05-10 | ||||
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| 98 | +2019-03-12 | ||||
| 99 | +2019-02-13 | ||||
| 100 | +2019-02-11 | ||||
| 101 | +2019-01-11 | ||||
| 102 | +2018-12-12 | ||||
| 103 | +2018-11-14 | ||||
| 104 | +2018-10-11 | ||||
| 105 | +2018-09-13 | ||||
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| 107 | +2018-07-12 | ||||
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| 116 | +2017-10-13 | ||||
| 117 | +2017-09-14 | ||||
| 118 | +2017-08-11 | ||||
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| 253 | +2007-02-21 | ||||
| 254 | +2007-02-16 | ||||
| 255 | +2007-01-18 | ||||
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data/external/bls/empsit_release_dates_alfred_rid50.txt
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| 1 | +# Source: ALFRED release page rid=50 (Employment Situation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), "Release Dates" filter list, | ||||
| 2 | +# extracted 2026-11-09 via Tavily from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=50 . Includes benchmark/revision releases | ||||
| 3 | +# (e.g. 2024-08-21 preliminary benchmark, 2024-01-10, 2013-05-06, 2012-12-12) which are not 08:30 Employment Situation releases. | ||||
| 4 | +2026-11-06 | ||||
| 5 | +2026-10-02 | ||||
| 6 | +2026-09-04 | ||||
| 7 | +2026-08-07 | ||||
| 8 | +2026-07-02 | ||||
| 9 | +2026-06-05 | ||||
| 10 | +2026-05-08 | ||||
| 11 | +2026-04-03 | ||||
| 12 | +2026-03-06 | ||||
| 13 | +2026-02-11 | ||||
| 14 | +2026-01-09 | ||||
| 15 | +2025-12-16 | ||||
| 16 | +2025-11-20 | ||||
| 17 | +2025-09-05 | ||||
| 18 | +2025-08-01 | ||||
| 19 | +2025-07-03 | ||||
| 20 | +2025-06-06 | ||||
| 21 | +2025-05-02 | ||||
| 22 | +2025-04-04 | ||||
| 23 | +2025-03-07 | ||||
| 24 | +2025-02-07 | ||||
| 25 | +2025-01-10 | ||||
| 26 | +2024-12-06 | ||||
| 27 | +2024-11-01 | ||||
| 28 | +2024-10-04 | ||||
| 29 | +2024-09-06 | ||||
| 30 | +2024-08-21 | ||||
| 31 | +2024-08-02 | ||||
| 32 | +2024-07-05 | ||||
| 33 | +2024-06-07 | ||||
| 34 | +2024-05-03 | ||||
| 35 | +2024-04-05 | ||||
| 36 | +2024-03-08 | ||||
| 37 | +2024-02-02 | ||||
| 38 | +2024-01-10 | ||||
| 39 | +2024-01-05 | ||||
| 40 | +2023-12-08 | ||||
| 41 | +2023-11-03 | ||||
| 42 | +2023-10-06 | ||||
| 43 | +2023-09-01 | ||||
| 44 | +2023-08-04 | ||||
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| 46 | +2023-06-02 | ||||
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| 76 | +2020-12-04 | ||||
| 77 | +2020-11-06 | ||||
| 78 | +2020-10-02 | ||||
| 79 | +2020-09-04 | ||||
| 80 | +2020-08-07 | ||||
| 81 | +2020-07-02 | ||||
| 82 | +2020-06-05 | ||||
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| 84 | +2020-05-08 | ||||
| 85 | +2020-04-03 | ||||
| 86 | +2020-03-06 | ||||
| 87 | +2020-02-07 | ||||
| 88 | +2020-01-10 | ||||
| 89 | +2019-12-06 | ||||
| 90 | +2019-11-01 | ||||
| 91 | +2019-10-04 | ||||
| 92 | +2019-09-06 | ||||
| 93 | +2019-08-02 | ||||
| 94 | +2019-07-05 | ||||
| 95 | +2019-06-07 | ||||
| 96 | +2019-05-03 | ||||
| 97 | +2019-04-05 | ||||
| 98 | +2019-03-08 | ||||
| 99 | +2019-02-01 | ||||
| 100 | +2019-01-04 | ||||
| 101 | +2018-12-07 | ||||
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| 148 | +2015-01-09 | ||||
| 149 | +2014-12-05 | ||||
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| 184 | +2012-03-09 | ||||
| 185 | +2012-02-03 | ||||
| 186 | +2012-01-06 | ||||
| 187 | +2011-12-02 | ||||
| 188 | +2011-11-04 | ||||
| 189 | +2011-10-07 | ||||
| 190 | +2011-09-02 | ||||
| 191 | +2011-08-05 | ||||
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| 194 | +2011-05-06 | ||||
| 195 | +2011-04-01 | ||||
| 196 | +2011-03-04 | ||||
| 197 | +2011-02-04 | ||||
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| 199 | +2010-12-03 | ||||
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| 203 | +2010-08-06 | ||||
| 204 | +2010-07-02 | ||||
| 205 | +2010-06-04 | ||||
| 206 | +2010-05-07 | ||||
| 207 | +2010-04-02 | ||||
| 208 | +2010-03-05 | ||||
| 209 | +2010-02-05 | ||||
| 210 | +2010-01-08 | ||||
| 211 | +2009-12-04 | ||||
| 212 | +2009-11-06 | ||||
| 213 | +2009-10-02 | ||||
| 214 | +2009-09-04 | ||||
| 215 | +2009-08-07 | ||||
| 216 | +2009-07-02 | ||||
| 217 | +2009-06-05 | ||||
| 218 | +2009-05-08 | ||||
| 219 | +2009-04-03 | ||||
| 220 | +2009-03-06 | ||||
| 221 | +2009-02-06 | ||||
| 222 | +2009-01-09 | ||||
| 223 | +2008-12-05 | ||||
| 224 | +2008-11-07 | ||||
| 225 | +2008-10-03 | ||||
| 226 | +2008-09-05 | ||||
| 227 | +2008-08-01 | ||||
| 228 | +2008-07-03 | ||||
| 229 | +2008-06-06 | ||||
| 230 | +2008-05-02 | ||||
| 231 | +2008-04-04 | ||||
| 232 | +2008-03-07 | ||||
| 233 | +2008-02-01 | ||||
| 234 | +2008-01-04 | ||||
| 235 | +2007-12-07 | ||||
| 236 | +2007-11-02 | ||||
| 237 | +2007-10-05 | ||||
| 238 | +2007-09-07 | ||||
| 239 | +2007-08-03 | ||||
| 240 | +2007-07-06 | ||||
| 241 | +2007-06-01 | ||||
| 242 | +2007-05-04 | ||||
| 243 | +2007-04-06 | ||||
| 244 | +2007-03-09 | ||||
| 245 | +2007-02-02 | ||||
| 246 | +2007-01-05 | ||||
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