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1\begin{table}[htbp]2\centering\small3\begin{threeparttable}4\caption{Summary statistics: Fed June 2026 state prices (11 December 2025 -- 22 May 2026)}5\label{tab:summary_stats}6\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}7\begin{tabular}{l rrrr rrrr r}8\toprule9 & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Level $p_{j,t}$} & \multicolumn{5}{c}{Daily change $\Delta p_{j,t}$ (percentage points)} \\10\cmidrule(lr){2-5}\cmidrule(lr){6-10}11Contract & Mean & SD & Min & Max & Mean & SD & Skew & Ex.\ kurt & ADF \\12\midrule13 50+ bps decrease & 0.057 & 0.041 & 0.004 & 0.130 & -0.087 & 0.76 & -1.70 & 13.2 & -5.35 \\14 25 bps decrease & 0.301 & 0.195 & 0.006 & 0.570 & -0.363 & 3.21 & -2.61 & 14.4 & -5.82 \\15 No change & 0.610 & 0.237 & 0.300 & 0.981 & 0.426 & 3.34 & 1.65 & 16.1 & -10.47 \\16 25 bps increase & 0.032 & 0.019 & 0.005 & 0.084 & -0.018 & 1.16 & 0.98 & 9.8 & -5.76 \\17 50+ bps increase & 0.016 & 0.015 & 0.002 & 0.061 & -0.026 & 0.63 & 1.12 & 17.0 & -7.84 \\18 State-price sum $\Sigma_t$ & 1.0167 & 0.0261 & 0.9605 & 1.1080 & -0.068 & 1.83 & -0.41 & 2.5 & -8.71 \\19\bottomrule20\end{tabular}21\begin{tablenotes}22\small23\item \textit{Notes:} $T=146$ daily closes (calendar days, Polymarket trades continuously) after exclusion of the listing day. Levels are in USDC; changes are in percentage points of the \$1 payoff. ADF is the augmented Dickey--Fuller statistic (constant, AIC lag) for the daily changes; the 1\% critical value is $-3.48$. Prices are bounded in $[0,1]$ and converge to 0 or 1 at resolution, so level series are not stationary by construction.24\end{tablenotes}25\end{threeparttable}26\end{table}