Confirmatory analysis — graft_tier0_confirmatory_0c2257f6803e (PREREGISTRATION v1.0)
Primary contrast: task-free Procrustes activation graft vs sham map (control-adjusted Δ_T^adj, cluster bootstrap over programs)
| pair | same init | transfer gain [95% CI] | Δ_T^adj [95% CI] | control with graft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| donor_s0->recipient_s0 | True | +0.883 [+0.864, +0.903] | +0.897 [+0.878, +0.916] | 0.997 |
| donor_s0->recipient_s1 | False | +0.859 [+0.837, +0.880] | +0.830 [+0.807, +0.853] | 1.000 |
| donor_s0->recipient_s2 | False | +0.832 [+0.809, +0.855] | +0.776 [+0.748, +0.803] | 0.999 |
| donor_s1->recipient_s0 | False | +0.854 [+0.831, +0.877] | +0.870 [+0.848, +0.891] | 0.946 |
| donor_s1->recipient_s1 | True | +0.944 [+0.929, +0.957] | +0.906 [+0.886, +0.924] | 1.000 |
| donor_s1->recipient_s2 | False | +0.932 [+0.916, +0.947] | +0.904 [+0.885, +0.923] | 1.000 |
| donor_s2->recipient_s0 | False | +0.883 [+0.863, +0.903] | +0.883 [+0.862, +0.903] | 0.985 |
| donor_s2->recipient_s1 | False | +0.925 [+0.907, +0.941] | +0.894 [+0.873, +0.914] | 1.000 |
| donor_s2->recipient_s2 | True | +0.943 [+0.928, +0.956] | +0.915 [+0.897, +0.932] | 1.000 |
Pairs with lower bound > SESOI (0.25): 9/9; mean Δ_T^adj 0.875 (sd 0.042, min 0.776). H2 (sufficiency): SUPPORTED; H4 (retention ≥ 0.95 in all pairs): NOT SUPPORTED.
Secondary pre-declared families (matched seeds; Holm over 4)
- subspace_k8_vs_random: +0.850 [+0.837, +0.862]; Holm p=0.0003 thr=0.0167 reject=True
- adapter_vs_base: +0.472 [+0.453, +0.490]; Holm p=0.0003 thr=0.0250 reject=True
- weight_L0_block_vs_shuffled: +0.556 [+0.537, +0.577]; retention 0.720; Holm p=0.0003 thr=0.0500 reject=True
- rule_vs_cache: seen 0.941 [0.919, 0.960], unseen 0.768 [0.727, 0.808], ratio 0.816 → H5 SUPPORTED; donor-free adapter seen 0.702 / unseen 0.000 (predicted failure)
- adapter persistent (fresh process, new splits): base 0.115 → with saved adapter 0.344 [0.317, 0.372]
Mechanism (fixed)
{ "mech_donor_ablated_attn0": { "donor_s0": 0.113 }, "mech_rescue_from_intact_donor": { "donor_s1->donor_s0(ablated)": 1.0 }, "mech_rescue_sham": { "donor_s1->donor_s0(ablated)": 0.106 }, "mech_reverse_recipient_to_donor": { "recipient_s0->donor_s0": 0.972 } }
Portability (fixed; (target, control))
{ "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L0to0": { "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [ 0.901, 1.0 ], "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.783, 0.956 ] }, "mismatch_sham_L0to0": { "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [ 0.095, 0.1 ], "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.084, 0.075 ] }, "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L1to1": { "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [ 1.0, 1.0 ], "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.999, 1.0 ] }, "mismatch_sham_L1to1": { "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [ 0.091, 0.104 ], "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.097, 0.087 ] }, "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L0to1": { "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.647, 0.957 ] }, "mismatch_sham_L0to1": { "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.099, 0.093 ] }, "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L1to2": { "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 1.0, 1.0 ] }, "mismatch_sham_L1to2": { "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.097, 0.072 ] }, "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L2to2": { "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 1.0, 1.0 ] }, "mismatch_sham_L2to2": { "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [ 0.084, 0.089 ] }, "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L0": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 0.386, 0.768 ] }, "stride2_sham_L0": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 0.087, 0.092 ] }, "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L1": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 0.76, 0.895 ] }, "stride2_sham_L1": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 0.105, 0.111 ] }, "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L2": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 1.0, 1.0 ] }, "stride2_sham_L2": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 0.125, 0.097 ] }, "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L3": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 1.0, 1.0 ] }, "stride2_sham_L3": { "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [ 0.106, 0.108 ] } }