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1# Confirmatory analysis — graft_tier0_confirmatory_0c2257f6803e (PREREGISTRATION v1.0)23## Primary contrast: task-free Procrustes activation graft vs sham map (control-adjusted Δ_T^adj, cluster bootstrap over programs)45| pair | same init | transfer gain [95% CI] | Δ_T^adj [95% CI] | control with graft |6|---|---|---|---|---|7| donor_s0->recipient_s0 | True | +0.883 [+0.864, +0.903] | +0.897 [+0.878, +0.916] | 0.997 |8| donor_s0->recipient_s1 | False | +0.859 [+0.837, +0.880] | +0.830 [+0.807, +0.853] | 1.000 |9| donor_s0->recipient_s2 | False | +0.832 [+0.809, +0.855] | +0.776 [+0.748, +0.803] | 0.999 |10| donor_s1->recipient_s0 | False | +0.854 [+0.831, +0.877] | +0.870 [+0.848, +0.891] | 0.946 |11| donor_s1->recipient_s1 | True | +0.944 [+0.929, +0.957] | +0.906 [+0.886, +0.924] | 1.000 |12| donor_s1->recipient_s2 | False | +0.932 [+0.916, +0.947] | +0.904 [+0.885, +0.923] | 1.000 |13| donor_s2->recipient_s0 | False | +0.883 [+0.863, +0.903] | +0.883 [+0.862, +0.903] | 0.985 |14| donor_s2->recipient_s1 | False | +0.925 [+0.907, +0.941] | +0.894 [+0.873, +0.914] | 1.000 |15| donor_s2->recipient_s2 | True | +0.943 [+0.928, +0.956] | +0.915 [+0.897, +0.932] | 1.000 |1617Pairs with lower bound > SESOI (0.25): **9/9**; mean Δ_T^adj 0.875 (sd 0.042, min 0.776). **H2 (sufficiency): SUPPORTED**; **H4 (retention ≥ 0.95 in all pairs): NOT SUPPORTED**.1819## Secondary pre-declared families (matched seeds; Holm over 4)2021- subspace_k8_vs_random: +0.850 [+0.837, +0.862]; Holm p=0.0003 thr=0.0167 reject=True22- adapter_vs_base: +0.472 [+0.453, +0.490]; Holm p=0.0003 thr=0.0250 reject=True23- weight_L0_block_vs_shuffled: +0.556 [+0.537, +0.577]; retention 0.720; Holm p=0.0003 thr=0.0500 reject=True24- rule_vs_cache: seen 0.941 [0.919, 0.960], unseen 0.768 [0.727, 0.808], ratio 0.816 → H5 SUPPORTED; donor-free adapter seen 0.702 / unseen 0.000 (predicted failure)25- adapter persistent (fresh process, new splits): base 0.115 → with saved adapter 0.344 [0.317, 0.372]2627## Mechanism (fixed)2829{30 "mech_donor_ablated_attn0": {31 "donor_s0": 0.11332 },33 "mech_rescue_from_intact_donor": {34 "donor_s1->donor_s0(ablated)": 1.035 },36 "mech_rescue_sham": {37 "donor_s1->donor_s0(ablated)": 0.10638 },39 "mech_reverse_recipient_to_donor": {40 "recipient_s0->donor_s0": 0.97241 }42}4344## Portability (fixed; (target, control))4546{47 "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L0to0": {48 "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [49 0.901,50 1.051 ],52 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [53 0.783,54 0.95655 ]56 },57 "mismatch_sham_L0to0": {58 "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [59 0.095,60 0.161 ],62 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [63 0.084,64 0.07565 ]66 },67 "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L1to1": {68 "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [69 1.0,70 1.071 ],72 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [73 0.999,74 1.075 ]76 },77 "mismatch_sham_L1to1": {78 "donor_s0->recipient_w96_s0": [79 0.091,80 0.10481 ],82 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [83 0.097,84 0.08785 ]86 },87 "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L0to1": {88 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [89 0.647,90 0.95791 ]92 },93 "mismatch_sham_L0to1": {94 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [95 0.099,96 0.09397 ]98 },99 "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L1to2": {100 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [101 1.0,102 1.0103 ]104 },105 "mismatch_sham_L1to2": {106 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [107 0.097,108 0.072109 ]110 },111 "mismatch_unrelated_procrustes_L2to2": {112 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [113 1.0,114 1.0115 ]116 },117 "mismatch_sham_L2to2": {118 "donor_s0->recipient_L6_s0": [119 0.084,120 0.089121 ]122 },123 "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L0": {124 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [125 0.386,126 0.768127 ]128 },129 "stride2_sham_L0": {130 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [131 0.087,132 0.092133 ]134 },135 "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L1": {136 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [137 0.76,138 0.895139 ]140 },141 "stride2_sham_L1": {142 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [143 0.105,144 0.111145 ]146 },147 "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L2": {148 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [149 1.0,150 1.0151 ]152 },153 "stride2_sham_L2": {154 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [155 0.125,156 0.097157 ]158 },159 "stride2_act_unrelated_procrustes_L3": {160 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [161 1.0,162 1.0163 ]164 },165 "stride2_sham_L3": {166 "donor_s2_s0->recipient_s2_s0": [167 0.106,168 0.108169 ]170 }171}172