chore(retrait cluster): synchro copie du nœud M2U64 + README « URL live hors fonction » (2026-09-04) · a7c68a4 · qc-election

chore(retrait cluster): synchro copie du nœud M2U64 + README « URL live hors fonction » (2026-09-04)

Simon-Pierre Boucher committed 2 mo ago (Sep 4, 2026) parent c3d9230 Browse files

4 changed files +1,733 −1,322

modified README.md +2 −0

				`@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@`
		1	+> ⚠️ URL live hors fonction pour le moment. L'application a été retirée du cluster MacLustr le 2026-09-04 (processus arrêtés, copie du nœud supprimée). Ce dépôt spbgit est désormais la seule source de vérité du projet. Ancienne URL : https://www.qc-election.com
		2	+
1	<!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 -->	3	<!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 -->
2	<!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher -->	4	<!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher -->
3	<!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai -->	5	<!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai -->

added backend/data/ablation_report.json +356 −0

++{
++ "generated": "2026-08-30",
++ "model_version": "3.1.0",
++ "n_sims": 6000,
++ "variants": {
++  "FULL": {
++   "overrides": {},
++   "horizons": [
++    {
++     "horizon": 120,
++     "mae_pp": 2.56,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 3.1,
++     "brier": 0.144,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.92
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 60,
++     "mae_pp": 2.21,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 2.1,
++     "brier": 0.1322,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.912
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 30,
++     "mae_pp": 4.15,
++     "coverage_95": 0.8,
++     "seat_mae": 4.0,
++     "brier": 0.1782,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.888
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 7,
++     "mae_pp": 2.77,
++     "coverage_95": 0.6,
++     "seat_mae": 4.2,
++     "brier": 0.1765,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 1,
++     "mae_pp": 2.19,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 4.3,
++     "brier": 0.1787,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    }
++   ],
++   "avg": {
++    "mae_pp": 2.776,
++    "seat_mae": 3.54,
++    "brier": 0.1619,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.8896
++   }
++  },
++  "sans_fondamentaux": {
++   "overrides": {
++    "fundamentals_enabled": false
++   },
++   "horizons": [
++    {
++     "horizon": 120,
++     "mae_pp": 2.63,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 3.1,
++     "brier": 0.1464,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.92
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 60,
++     "mae_pp": 2.22,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 2.1,
++     "brier": 0.1325,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.912
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 30,
++     "mae_pp": 4.14,
++     "coverage_95": 0.8,
++     "seat_mae": 4.0,
++     "brier": 0.1785,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.888
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 7,
++     "mae_pp": 2.76,
++     "coverage_95": 0.6,
++     "seat_mae": 4.2,
++     "brier": 0.1765,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 1,
++     "mae_pp": 2.19,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 4.3,
++     "brier": 0.1787,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    }
++   ],
++   "avg": {
++    "mae_pp": 2.788,
++    "seat_mae": 3.54,
++    "brier": 0.1625,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.8896
++   },
++   "delta_vs_full": {
++    "mae_pp": 0.012,
++    "seat_mae": 0.0,
++    "brier": 0.0006,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.0
++   }
++  },
++  "sans_partielles": {
++   "overrides": {
++    "byelections_enabled": false
++   },
++   "horizons": [
++    {
++     "horizon": 120,
++     "mae_pp": 2.56,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 3.1,
++     "brier": 0.144,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.92
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 60,
++     "mae_pp": 2.21,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 2.1,
++     "brier": 0.1322,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.912
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 30,
++     "mae_pp": 4.15,
++     "coverage_95": 0.8,
++     "seat_mae": 4.0,
++     "brier": 0.1782,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.888
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 7,
++     "mae_pp": 2.77,
++     "coverage_95": 0.6,
++     "seat_mae": 4.2,
++     "brier": 0.1765,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 1,
++     "mae_pp": 2.19,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 4.3,
++     "brier": 0.1787,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    }
++   ],
++   "avg": {
++    "mae_pp": 2.776,
++    "seat_mae": 3.54,
++    "brier": 0.1619,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.8896
++   },
++   "delta_vs_full": {
++    "mae_pp": 0.0,
++    "seat_mae": 0.0,
++    "brier": 0.0,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.0
++   }
++  },
++  "sans_medias": {
++   "overrides": {
++    "media_nudge_enabled": false
++   },
++   "horizons": [
++    {
++     "horizon": 120,
++     "mae_pp": 2.56,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 3.1,
++     "brier": 0.144,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.92
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 60,
++     "mae_pp": 2.21,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 2.1,
++     "brier": 0.1322,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.912
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 30,
++     "mae_pp": 4.15,
++     "coverage_95": 0.8,
++     "seat_mae": 4.0,
++     "brier": 0.1782,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.888
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 7,
++     "mae_pp": 2.77,
++     "coverage_95": 0.6,
++     "seat_mae": 4.2,
++     "brier": 0.1765,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 1,
++     "mae_pp": 2.19,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 4.3,
++     "brier": 0.1787,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    }
++   ],
++   "avg": {
++    "mae_pp": 2.776,
++    "seat_mae": 3.54,
++    "brier": 0.1619,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.8896
++   },
++   "delta_vs_full": {
++    "mae_pp": 0.0,
++    "seat_mae": 0.0,
++    "brier": 0.0,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.0
++   }
++  },
++  "sans_volatilite_sociale": {
++   "overrides": {
++    "enable_social_volatility": false
++   },
++   "horizons": [
++    {
++     "horizon": 120,
++     "mae_pp": 2.56,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 3.1,
++     "brier": 0.144,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.92
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 60,
++     "mae_pp": 2.21,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 2.1,
++     "brier": 0.1322,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.912
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 30,
++     "mae_pp": 4.15,
++     "coverage_95": 0.8,
++     "seat_mae": 4.0,
++     "brier": 0.1782,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.888
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 7,
++     "mae_pp": 2.77,
++     "coverage_95": 0.6,
++     "seat_mae": 4.2,
++     "brier": 0.1765,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 1,
++     "mae_pp": 2.19,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 4.3,
++     "brier": 0.1787,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    }
++   ],
++   "avg": {
++    "mae_pp": 2.776,
++    "seat_mae": 3.54,
++    "brier": 0.1619,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.8896
++   },
++   "delta_vs_full": {
++    "mae_pp": 0.0,
++    "seat_mae": 0.0,
++    "brier": 0.0,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.0
++   }
++  },
++  "sondages_seuls": {
++   "overrides": {
++    "fundamentals_enabled": false,
++    "byelections_enabled": false,
++    "media_nudge_enabled": false,
++    "enable_social_volatility": false
++   },
++   "horizons": [
++    {
++     "horizon": 120,
++     "mae_pp": 2.63,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 3.1,
++     "brier": 0.1464,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.92
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 60,
++     "mae_pp": 2.22,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 2.1,
++     "brier": 0.1325,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.912
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 30,
++     "mae_pp": 4.14,
++     "coverage_95": 0.8,
++     "seat_mae": 4.0,
++     "brier": 0.1785,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.888
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 7,
++     "mae_pp": 2.76,
++     "coverage_95": 0.6,
++     "seat_mae": 4.2,
++     "brier": 0.1765,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    },
++    {
++     "horizon": 1,
++     "mae_pp": 2.19,
++     "coverage_95": 1.0,
++     "seat_mae": 4.3,
++     "brier": 0.1787,
++     "winner_accuracy": 0.864
++    }
++   ],
++   "avg": {
++    "mae_pp": 2.788,
++    "seat_mae": 3.54,
++    "brier": 0.1625,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.8896
++   },
++   "delta_vs_full": {
++    "mae_pp": 0.012,
++    "seat_mae": 0.0,
++    "brier": 0.0006,
++    "winner_accuracy": 0.0
++   }
++  }
++ }
++}
+ \ No newline at end of file

modified backend/data/polls_2022.csv +910 −910

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modified backend/data/polls_2026.csv +465 −412

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spb/qc-election

chore(retrait cluster): synchro copie du nœud M2U64 + README « URL live hors fonction » (2026-09-04)

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