chore(retrait cluster): synchro copie du nœud M2U64 + README « URL live hors fonction » (2026-09-04)
4 changed files +1,733 −1,322
modified
README.md
+2 −0
@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@ | ||
| 1 | +> ⚠️ **URL live hors fonction pour le moment.** L'application a été retirée du cluster MacLustr le 2026-09-04 (processus arrêtés, copie du nœud supprimée). Ce dépôt spbgit est désormais la seule source de vérité du projet. Ancienne URL : https://www.qc-election.com | |
| 2 | + | |
| 1 | 3 | <!-- QC Élection Forecast — Plateforme de prévision électorale du Québec 2026 --> |
| 2 | 4 | <!-- Auteur : Simon-Pierre Boucher --> |
| 3 | 5 | <!-- Contact : contact@spboucher.ai --> |
added
backend/data/ablation_report.json
+356 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,356 @@ | ||
| 1 | +{ | |
| 2 | + "generated": "2026-08-30", | |
| 3 | + "model_version": "3.1.0", | |
| 4 | + "n_sims": 6000, | |
| 5 | + "variants": { | |
| 6 | + "FULL": { | |
| 7 | + "overrides": {}, | |
| 8 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 9 | + { | |
| 10 | + "horizon": 120, | |
| 11 | + "mae_pp": 2.56, | |
| 12 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 13 | + "seat_mae": 3.1, | |
| 14 | + "brier": 0.144, | |
| 15 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.92 | |
| 16 | + }, | |
| 17 | + { | |
| 18 | + "horizon": 60, | |
| 19 | + "mae_pp": 2.21, | |
| 20 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 21 | + "seat_mae": 2.1, | |
| 22 | + "brier": 0.1322, | |
| 23 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.912 | |
| 24 | + }, | |
| 25 | + { | |
| 26 | + "horizon": 30, | |
| 27 | + "mae_pp": 4.15, | |
| 28 | + "coverage_95": 0.8, | |
| 29 | + "seat_mae": 4.0, | |
| 30 | + "brier": 0.1782, | |
| 31 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.888 | |
| 32 | + }, | |
| 33 | + { | |
| 34 | + "horizon": 7, | |
| 35 | + "mae_pp": 2.77, | |
| 36 | + "coverage_95": 0.6, | |
| 37 | + "seat_mae": 4.2, | |
| 38 | + "brier": 0.1765, | |
| 39 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 40 | + }, | |
| 41 | + { | |
| 42 | + "horizon": 1, | |
| 43 | + "mae_pp": 2.19, | |
| 44 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 45 | + "seat_mae": 4.3, | |
| 46 | + "brier": 0.1787, | |
| 47 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 48 | + } | |
| 49 | + ], | |
| 50 | + "avg": { | |
| 51 | + "mae_pp": 2.776, | |
| 52 | + "seat_mae": 3.54, | |
| 53 | + "brier": 0.1619, | |
| 54 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.8896 | |
| 55 | + } | |
| 56 | + }, | |
| 57 | + "sans_fondamentaux": { | |
| 58 | + "overrides": { | |
| 59 | + "fundamentals_enabled": false | |
| 60 | + }, | |
| 61 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 62 | + { | |
| 63 | + "horizon": 120, | |
| 64 | + "mae_pp": 2.63, | |
| 65 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 66 | + "seat_mae": 3.1, | |
| 67 | + "brier": 0.1464, | |
| 68 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.92 | |
| 69 | + }, | |
| 70 | + { | |
| 71 | + "horizon": 60, | |
| 72 | + "mae_pp": 2.22, | |
| 73 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 74 | + "seat_mae": 2.1, | |
| 75 | + "brier": 0.1325, | |
| 76 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.912 | |
| 77 | + }, | |
| 78 | + { | |
| 79 | + "horizon": 30, | |
| 80 | + "mae_pp": 4.14, | |
| 81 | + "coverage_95": 0.8, | |
| 82 | + "seat_mae": 4.0, | |
| 83 | + "brier": 0.1785, | |
| 84 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.888 | |
| 85 | + }, | |
| 86 | + { | |
| 87 | + "horizon": 7, | |
| 88 | + "mae_pp": 2.76, | |
| 89 | + "coverage_95": 0.6, | |
| 90 | + "seat_mae": 4.2, | |
| 91 | + "brier": 0.1765, | |
| 92 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 93 | + }, | |
| 94 | + { | |
| 95 | + "horizon": 1, | |
| 96 | + "mae_pp": 2.19, | |
| 97 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 98 | + "seat_mae": 4.3, | |
| 99 | + "brier": 0.1787, | |
| 100 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 101 | + } | |
| 102 | + ], | |
| 103 | + "avg": { | |
| 104 | + "mae_pp": 2.788, | |
| 105 | + "seat_mae": 3.54, | |
| 106 | + "brier": 0.1625, | |
| 107 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.8896 | |
| 108 | + }, | |
| 109 | + "delta_vs_full": { | |
| 110 | + "mae_pp": 0.012, | |
| 111 | + "seat_mae": 0.0, | |
| 112 | + "brier": 0.0006, | |
| 113 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.0 | |
| 114 | + } | |
| 115 | + }, | |
| 116 | + "sans_partielles": { | |
| 117 | + "overrides": { | |
| 118 | + "byelections_enabled": false | |
| 119 | + }, | |
| 120 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 121 | + { | |
| 122 | + "horizon": 120, | |
| 123 | + "mae_pp": 2.56, | |
| 124 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 125 | + "seat_mae": 3.1, | |
| 126 | + "brier": 0.144, | |
| 127 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.92 | |
| 128 | + }, | |
| 129 | + { | |
| 130 | + "horizon": 60, | |
| 131 | + "mae_pp": 2.21, | |
| 132 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 133 | + "seat_mae": 2.1, | |
| 134 | + "brier": 0.1322, | |
| 135 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.912 | |
| 136 | + }, | |
| 137 | + { | |
| 138 | + "horizon": 30, | |
| 139 | + "mae_pp": 4.15, | |
| 140 | + "coverage_95": 0.8, | |
| 141 | + "seat_mae": 4.0, | |
| 142 | + "brier": 0.1782, | |
| 143 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.888 | |
| 144 | + }, | |
| 145 | + { | |
| 146 | + "horizon": 7, | |
| 147 | + "mae_pp": 2.77, | |
| 148 | + "coverage_95": 0.6, | |
| 149 | + "seat_mae": 4.2, | |
| 150 | + "brier": 0.1765, | |
| 151 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 152 | + }, | |
| 153 | + { | |
| 154 | + "horizon": 1, | |
| 155 | + "mae_pp": 2.19, | |
| 156 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 157 | + "seat_mae": 4.3, | |
| 158 | + "brier": 0.1787, | |
| 159 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 160 | + } | |
| 161 | + ], | |
| 162 | + "avg": { | |
| 163 | + "mae_pp": 2.776, | |
| 164 | + "seat_mae": 3.54, | |
| 165 | + "brier": 0.1619, | |
| 166 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.8896 | |
| 167 | + }, | |
| 168 | + "delta_vs_full": { | |
| 169 | + "mae_pp": 0.0, | |
| 170 | + "seat_mae": 0.0, | |
| 171 | + "brier": 0.0, | |
| 172 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.0 | |
| 173 | + } | |
| 174 | + }, | |
| 175 | + "sans_medias": { | |
| 176 | + "overrides": { | |
| 177 | + "media_nudge_enabled": false | |
| 178 | + }, | |
| 179 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 180 | + { | |
| 181 | + "horizon": 120, | |
| 182 | + "mae_pp": 2.56, | |
| 183 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 184 | + "seat_mae": 3.1, | |
| 185 | + "brier": 0.144, | |
| 186 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.92 | |
| 187 | + }, | |
| 188 | + { | |
| 189 | + "horizon": 60, | |
| 190 | + "mae_pp": 2.21, | |
| 191 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 192 | + "seat_mae": 2.1, | |
| 193 | + "brier": 0.1322, | |
| 194 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.912 | |
| 195 | + }, | |
| 196 | + { | |
| 197 | + "horizon": 30, | |
| 198 | + "mae_pp": 4.15, | |
| 199 | + "coverage_95": 0.8, | |
| 200 | + "seat_mae": 4.0, | |
| 201 | + "brier": 0.1782, | |
| 202 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.888 | |
| 203 | + }, | |
| 204 | + { | |
| 205 | + "horizon": 7, | |
| 206 | + "mae_pp": 2.77, | |
| 207 | + "coverage_95": 0.6, | |
| 208 | + "seat_mae": 4.2, | |
| 209 | + "brier": 0.1765, | |
| 210 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 211 | + }, | |
| 212 | + { | |
| 213 | + "horizon": 1, | |
| 214 | + "mae_pp": 2.19, | |
| 215 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 216 | + "seat_mae": 4.3, | |
| 217 | + "brier": 0.1787, | |
| 218 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 219 | + } | |
| 220 | + ], | |
| 221 | + "avg": { | |
| 222 | + "mae_pp": 2.776, | |
| 223 | + "seat_mae": 3.54, | |
| 224 | + "brier": 0.1619, | |
| 225 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.8896 | |
| 226 | + }, | |
| 227 | + "delta_vs_full": { | |
| 228 | + "mae_pp": 0.0, | |
| 229 | + "seat_mae": 0.0, | |
| 230 | + "brier": 0.0, | |
| 231 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.0 | |
| 232 | + } | |
| 233 | + }, | |
| 234 | + "sans_volatilite_sociale": { | |
| 235 | + "overrides": { | |
| 236 | + "enable_social_volatility": false | |
| 237 | + }, | |
| 238 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 239 | + { | |
| 240 | + "horizon": 120, | |
| 241 | + "mae_pp": 2.56, | |
| 242 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 243 | + "seat_mae": 3.1, | |
| 244 | + "brier": 0.144, | |
| 245 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.92 | |
| 246 | + }, | |
| 247 | + { | |
| 248 | + "horizon": 60, | |
| 249 | + "mae_pp": 2.21, | |
| 250 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 251 | + "seat_mae": 2.1, | |
| 252 | + "brier": 0.1322, | |
| 253 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.912 | |
| 254 | + }, | |
| 255 | + { | |
| 256 | + "horizon": 30, | |
| 257 | + "mae_pp": 4.15, | |
| 258 | + "coverage_95": 0.8, | |
| 259 | + "seat_mae": 4.0, | |
| 260 | + "brier": 0.1782, | |
| 261 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.888 | |
| 262 | + }, | |
| 263 | + { | |
| 264 | + "horizon": 7, | |
| 265 | + "mae_pp": 2.77, | |
| 266 | + "coverage_95": 0.6, | |
| 267 | + "seat_mae": 4.2, | |
| 268 | + "brier": 0.1765, | |
| 269 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 270 | + }, | |
| 271 | + { | |
| 272 | + "horizon": 1, | |
| 273 | + "mae_pp": 2.19, | |
| 274 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 275 | + "seat_mae": 4.3, | |
| 276 | + "brier": 0.1787, | |
| 277 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 278 | + } | |
| 279 | + ], | |
| 280 | + "avg": { | |
| 281 | + "mae_pp": 2.776, | |
| 282 | + "seat_mae": 3.54, | |
| 283 | + "brier": 0.1619, | |
| 284 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.8896 | |
| 285 | + }, | |
| 286 | + "delta_vs_full": { | |
| 287 | + "mae_pp": 0.0, | |
| 288 | + "seat_mae": 0.0, | |
| 289 | + "brier": 0.0, | |
| 290 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.0 | |
| 291 | + } | |
| 292 | + }, | |
| 293 | + "sondages_seuls": { | |
| 294 | + "overrides": { | |
| 295 | + "fundamentals_enabled": false, | |
| 296 | + "byelections_enabled": false, | |
| 297 | + "media_nudge_enabled": false, | |
| 298 | + "enable_social_volatility": false | |
| 299 | + }, | |
| 300 | + "horizons": [ | |
| 301 | + { | |
| 302 | + "horizon": 120, | |
| 303 | + "mae_pp": 2.63, | |
| 304 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 305 | + "seat_mae": 3.1, | |
| 306 | + "brier": 0.1464, | |
| 307 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.92 | |
| 308 | + }, | |
| 309 | + { | |
| 310 | + "horizon": 60, | |
| 311 | + "mae_pp": 2.22, | |
| 312 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 313 | + "seat_mae": 2.1, | |
| 314 | + "brier": 0.1325, | |
| 315 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.912 | |
| 316 | + }, | |
| 317 | + { | |
| 318 | + "horizon": 30, | |
| 319 | + "mae_pp": 4.14, | |
| 320 | + "coverage_95": 0.8, | |
| 321 | + "seat_mae": 4.0, | |
| 322 | + "brier": 0.1785, | |
| 323 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.888 | |
| 324 | + }, | |
| 325 | + { | |
| 326 | + "horizon": 7, | |
| 327 | + "mae_pp": 2.76, | |
| 328 | + "coverage_95": 0.6, | |
| 329 | + "seat_mae": 4.2, | |
| 330 | + "brier": 0.1765, | |
| 331 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 332 | + }, | |
| 333 | + { | |
| 334 | + "horizon": 1, | |
| 335 | + "mae_pp": 2.19, | |
| 336 | + "coverage_95": 1.0, | |
| 337 | + "seat_mae": 4.3, | |
| 338 | + "brier": 0.1787, | |
| 339 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.864 | |
| 340 | + } | |
| 341 | + ], | |
| 342 | + "avg": { | |
| 343 | + "mae_pp": 2.788, | |
| 344 | + "seat_mae": 3.54, | |
| 345 | + "brier": 0.1625, | |
| 346 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.8896 | |
| 347 | + }, | |
| 348 | + "delta_vs_full": { | |
| 349 | + "mae_pp": 0.012, | |
| 350 | + "seat_mae": 0.0, | |
| 351 | + "brier": 0.0006, | |
| 352 | + "winner_accuracy": 0.0 | |
| 353 | + } | |
| 354 | + } | |
| 355 | + } | |
| 356 | +} | |
| \ No newline at end of file | ||
modified
backend/data/polls_2022.csv
+910 −910
Large diff (1,821 lines) is not loaded by default to keep the page fast.Load diff
modified
backend/data/polls_2026.csv
+465 −412
Large diff (879 lines) is not loaded by default to keep the page fast.Load diff